Notre Dame Discussion

[HuskyNan]

BobbyJ was responding to your post questioning the UConn players’ “guts and motivation”. Just your stating your opinion doesn’t make it true and BobbyJ, whose opinion on basketball I would take over many others, is within his rights to disagree with you

 

[JoePgh]

My first observation about the comments in this thread is that most of the people (especially those with the strongest opinions) appear not to have gone back and actually watched last season's game. I just did that, and (as you would expect) it is enlightening in several respects.

• Last season's game (which was played in late January) was tied with 9 minutes left. Early in the second quarter, UConn had a 12-point lead. It was not the start-to-finish blowout that many gloom-and-doom posters seem to remember. Only the fourth quarter could be characterized as one-sided, and I will discuss below the reasons for that.
• The game was going to be a 6-point ND lead at halftime until Hidalgo hit a buzzer-beater at the end of the half, so UConn was facing a 9-point deficit to start the 3rd quarter. Late in that 3rd quarter, UConn held a 3-point lead for about 3 minutes, until ND tied it and took a 3-point lead on a late shot by Westbeld.
• In that 3rd quarter, Paige and Aaliyah had a very effective pick-and-roll game going, with Aaliyah matching Hidalgo's baskets almost one-for-one. Geno was asked at the post game press conference why UConn got away from that action in the 4th quarter, and he made a comment about how no one was hitting outside shots, so the paint was full of defenders. I think that is only a partial explanation.
• Those who think that KK is the answer for defending Hidalgo should watch the replay: KK was defending Hidalgo for most of the game, and Hannah was going by KK just as easily as she went by anyone else. The real answer for why Hidalgo scored 34 is why there was no secondary defense after the initial defender got beat. No single defender is going to keep Hidalgo in front of her consistently, so a rotation has to be in place to stop her drives (always to the right) before she gets to the rim. That just wasn't happening, and for the most part I don't know why, but I'm fairly sure that Geno will have that problem fixed for Thursday evening.
• As to the fourth quarter, the most important event was that Nika fouled out very early in that quarter. That meant Geno had to bring Ice in as her substitute, switching UConn to a 2-big, 3-guard lineup, and it was obvious that that lineup wasn't prepared to defend Hidalgo. Once Hidalgo beat her initial defender (usually with a Westbeld pick), there was no switch that had any chance of success. Ice certainly wasn't going to be able to switch off of Westbeld and stop Hildalgo's drive. There has to be a defensive plan for that situation, and there wasn't. Geno's teams usually don't have a major problem keeping fast guards from getting to the rim, but they certainly did in the 4th quarter. Probably the pre-game plan was that Nika would be the secondary defender if KK got beat, but in the 4th quarter, she wasn't around anymore.
• UConn allowed ND to shoot 55% in the game, which is unprecedented for UConn defensive performance. Not only was Hidalgo 14-24, but Westbeld was 9-15 and Citron was 6-13. If ND shoots 55% on Thursday night, they will win going away, but I can't believe that will happen again.

What does all of this say about the upcoming game on Thursday evening?

1. Assuming Westbeld doesn't play, I don't think that Koval will be able to set picks as expertly as Westbeld did last January, so Hidalgo may have a lot more difficulty getting launched on her drives. And I certainly think that secondary defense will be in place on Hildalgo's right side to stop the ball short of the rim. Hidalgo may be able to hit short jumpers or tear-drops anyway, but just keeping her away from the rim would be a big improvement over January's defense.
2. I think Sarah will be able to score against ND as easily as Aaliyah did, and that isn't bad -- Aaliyah was 10-for-14 and scored 23 points.
3. Paige had a shooting experience in the January game similar to what she just had against Louisville, and I don't think that will happen in two consecutive games. Paige was 5-for-17 for 17 points, and her misses weren't due to great ND defense -- she just wasn't hitting that night. It would have been a different game if she had been hitting.
4. I'm assuming that Ice/Jana will defend Koval, and will do so with reasonable success, and will hopefully stay out of acute foul trouble. That would seem to leave Sarah without an adequate match-up (from ND's perspective) at either end of the floor. She should be able to guard King without difficulty, and Citron is probably the only ND defender who can contend with her, which would leave Miles (really?) to defend Paige. Those match-ups all favor UConn, and at least offset Hidalgo's advantage over anyone who tries to defend her.
5. I hope to see Jana get the majority of minutes at the 5 position, if she can stay on the floor. That should allow UConn to dominate the boards. This is an ideal game for Jana to demonstrate her potential mainly as a rebounder, but also as an inside scorer.
6. I'm pretty sure that Morgan is better than the 8th player on ND's depth chart, and she should also help with rebounding and passing. A breakout game for her would really change the game if it can happen.

So what is my conclusion / prediction? If Azzi were playing and at full strength, I would expect a 10-point UConn win. Without Azzi, I would expect it to be decided by one possession in the final minute, but if the favorable surprises in #5 and #6 above occur, it still could be a 10-point UConn win anyway.

 

[BobbyJ]

Better check your dictionary for the definition of ad hominem. Read the first question again. You’re implying that the UConn kids can’t match the ND kid’s guts and motivation. My question challenges your position. You don’t know them and therefore shouldn’t be judging them. Talk all you want about their skills but don’t be judging their character.

 

[David54]

With azzi out they player I’m expecting to see get more minutes is Morgan.

 

[AzzisBraids]

The Irish's 1-3-1 zone is a concern. That has been an issue moving the ball and with Hidalgo roaming around it doesn't get easier. I'm not concerned about Paige, she needs to figure it out and post up whichever guard they put on her. Sarah will get hers, Kaitlyn Chen, Shade, Cheli, and Ziebell need to be ready. I expect KK to come in and have a steal off between her and Hildalgo. She could be huge. UConn wins if Paige can get loose from Citron

 

[Dillon77]

Have either karlen or Westbeld started warming up? At any point?

Warming up for games? Not at all. They haven't even dressed.
Are they working out in practices? Of course, but trying to get up to speed.

 

[Stagnant]

Here is a curveball.

Any chance Aubrey plays? Has she officially been ruled out? She has been warming up with the team for a couple of weeks now.

 

[Cuango]

Azzi’s absence makes this game a lot more difficult! I like to think Geno will have a better (actually that’s a bit unfair as Nika was gone in the crucial fourth quarter) game plan to deal with HH. Unfortunately, they now have Miles who is shooting 46% from three! However, we have a little (actually, two) surprise/s for them named Sarah and Jana. Paige will need to play well and we have to avoid foul trouble. Finally, we cannot allow them to go off from three! If those things happen, I like our chances. Win or lose however, the most important thing for me, is no injuries!

 

[hoophuskee]

Just so we're clear. UCONN showed a ton of enthusiasm in the S16 and E8 celebrating their wins and winning their Regional to get to the Final Four, while your enthusiastic Notre Dame lacked enthusisam on their trip home after their S16 Regionals. I feel for them that they weren't good enough to go as far as UCONN. I really do. - Not.

 

[Hayven]

I don’t like this matchup at all. You would think everyone on this board would have learned not to take ND lightly.
Paige needs to get out of her shooting funk. She and Strong will need a big game. Chen needs to prove she can defend. Do you put Ashlynn on Hidalgo? ND would not mind an up-tempo game. I wonder if Geno plays into this, and hopes their guards get tired?
If they can manage to get by this one, I think they can go undefeated the rest of the season

 

[Stagnant]

One thing I want to say, Miles shooting 46% from 3. I expect that to drop. There still isn’t a very big sample size.

39 attempts this season. She attempted 122 the year she was 27%. She has obviously worked on it a lot though. So, she deserves credit for that.

 

[JellyBean]

If I am Coach G in this matchup, I would press all night long! I would turn this into a track meet. Use the numbers advantage against ND. Sure, the game might get sloppy at times and things could look rough out there, but I would use our team depth, size, length, an athleticism against ND.

As soon as HH or Miles gets across halfcourt, I am trapping them. They throw the ball into the corners, I am trapping. They start throwing the ball into the air, hopefully our UConn players are paying attention, easy steal and score opportunities. Put pressure on ND and the refs. This is a winnable game for UConn if Coach uses all of the tools in the toolbox. I would pressure the hell out of ND. 40 minutes of Hell and use every available body on the bench.

 

[JellyBean]

I don’t like this matchup at all. You would think everyone on this board would have learned not to take ND lightly.
Paige needs to get out of her shooting funk. She and Strong will need a big game. Chen needs to prove she can defend. Do you put Ashlynn on Hidalgo? ND would not mind an up-tempo game. I wonder if Geno plays into this, and hopes their guards get tired?
If they can manage to get by this one, I think they can go undefeated the rest of the season

You never take anyone lightly but you also can't ignore a few things in matchups. ND does not have depth. Sure they would not mind an up-tempo game. The key will be how long can they sustain that pace? Not many teams can sustain that pace. You throw wave after wave after wave at a team, they will break. Just a matter of when and will power. UConn, if they got half court offense and let ND go half court, it becomes a game of who can sell the most foul calls and get the game to the free throw line. ND would win because they get those calls a lot. I am turning up the heat and pressuring the hell out of ND. Turn this into a track meet. My depth and talent vs ND's 6 or 7 talented players. I am betting on depth and talent.

 

[Tonyc]

Its pretty simple what we have to do. Get Koval in foul trouble which will force ND to their bench and with Koval out the middle is open. Hit our shots. We will need somebody besides Paige and Sarah to score.
Make Hannah and Oliva go to their left
Avoid tunrovers
Execute Genos game plan

 

[yhun89]

Its pretty simple what we have to do. Get Koval in foul trouble which will force ND to their bench and with Koval out the middle is open. Hit our shots. We will need somebody besides Paige and Sarah to score.
Make Hannah and Oliva go to their left
Avoid tunrovers
Execute Genos game plan

They were told to force HH left last year and it just did not work at all. Hopefully they can execute it this year.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Reading the comments. Are we underdogs?

 

[HuskyNan]

Reading the comments. Are we underdogs?

Massey says no. Don’t know what Las Vegas says

 

[yhun89]

Warming up for games? Not at all. They haven't even dressed.
Are they working out in practices? Of course, but trying to get up to speed.

Ah okay. I was hearing from someone that Karlen might be ready to go by Thursday.

 

[oldude]

They were told to force HH left last year and it just did not work at all. Hopefully they can execute it this year.

Last season Nika tried to play HH like a defensive back playing a receiver in press coverage, effectively not letting her get off the line of scrimmage. That resulted in 5 fouls for Nika and only 19 minutes of PT. With no real options off the bench, Hidalgo had a field day.

HH is just too quick to play tight on defense. You have to do your best to stay in front of her on defense, keep her from blowing by you to the basket and live with her making outside shots.

I am hopeful that the combination of Kaitlyn Chen and KK Arnold are up to the task of reasonably containing Hidalgo. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

 

[Skeets]

A big thing in my mind is how often we let ND get to the FT line. I saw a stat that showed how ND had MADE 40 more FTs so far this season than UConn had even been AWARDED. That's a huge stat discrepancy. Cannot allow them to get easy fouls and head to the line a lot.

On the flip side, ND has the shorter bench, so getting them into foul trouble early would be a benefit for us.

Not surprising. They play a lot of games in South Bend.

 

[BobbyJ]

Last season Nika tried to play HH like a defensive back playing a receiver in press coverage, effectively not letting her get off the line of scrimmage. That resulted in 5 fouls for Nika and only 19 minutes of PT. With no real options off the bench, Hidalgo had a field day.

HH is just too quick to play tight on defense. You have to do your best to stay in front of her on defense, keep her from blowing by you to the basket and live with her making outside shots.

I am hopeful that the combination of Kaitlyn Chen and KK Arnold are up to the task of reasonably containing Hidalgo. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

I agree. Give her a 4 foot cushion to help cut off penetration and go under the high screens so as not to force the slower UConn bigs to help as much and avoid foul problems.