Notre Dame (according to ESPN)

[jpm25]

1. The Big Ten wants Notre Dame, and Notre Dame's first choice is the Big Ten, but in each case it will depend on the terms. Not inconceivable that the ACC offers ND better terms and not inconceivable the Big Ten won't match them and ND goes south.

2. I am very concerned, very concerned, that if ND is negotiating with the ACC they would prefer Rutgers to us to play in the Meadowlands (which are fan base so brilliantly went ballistic about) and help their New Jersey recruiting base. Big problem.

3. On the other hand, ND's first preference is to keep the Big EAst alive, the remaining football schools aligned with the Catholics, so it doesn't have to change. If the ACC wants to force ND's hand, the move is to take UConn. That so harms men's hoops on top of Pitt and Syracuse gone, kills womens hoops, harms baseball, soccer, track, field hockey, .... Then, the ACC tells ND in thirty days if we don't have you lined up as #16 we're offering Rutgers.

4. Swofford has played this dead on correctly from the beginning. He is forcing everyone's hand, and knows with unlimited time he loses because the SEC and Big Ten have stronger hands to play. But this strategy is the win-win for him, in that either he forces ND in or at worst he guaranties that the ACC will be as strong in the Northeast going forward as the Big Ten (which he has not yet accomplished).

That would be my hope. As I said the other day, I think ND knows it's done as an independent in football. What you're watching now is a play being acted out to shield the administration from the alumni when they join somewhere.

#1 - how do you know ND wants the Big 10?

#2 - You don't think Herbst would agree to play ND at the Meadowlands if the stakes are in the ACC or in the Big 1East2? You think the message boards have a say here?

 

[LRock34]

ND isn't going to the Big 10 either. This isn't a negotiating tactic. ND wants to stay independent and keep it's sweet deal with the BE. What ND is attempting to do right now is keep the BE together. ND is located in Indiana but it is an East Coast school with an East Coast student population. ND does not want to join the Big 10. They want to maintain their National presence but play as many games as possible in the northeast. Joining a conference doesn't do this for them.

The sad part is that if the ACC offered ND the option to play their olympic sports in the ACC, ND would drop the BE like a stone.

My HATRED for ND is at an ALL TIME high right now.

 

[uconnric]

I believe you're spot on with this. I thought the exact same thing when I heard it this morning. This is nothing more than a stalling tactic by ND and possibly even leadership in Providence. The ACC will wait and ND will hope they can force UConn and RU into staying. I hope the ACC isn't stupid enough to fall for this.

I'd like to call the ACC a number of things, but stupid isn't one of them. This fiasco has the fingerprints of the morally challenged Gene Di all over it. I don't think the ACC is going to wait for anyone unless it fits into their own agenda. Of all the conferences in this reorganization mess, they have been the least likely to tip their hand.

 

[businesslawyer]

#1 - how do you know ND wants the Big 10?

#2 - You don't think Herbst would agree to play ND at the Meadowlands if the stakes are in the ACC or in the Big 1East2? You think the message boards have a say here?

As to your first point, because we know the ND administration decided to join the Big Ten a number of years ago before they let the alumni veto the idea.

As to your second, I have no idea what Herbst would do. But do I think fan reaction was part of the Notre Dame contract never been signed? Yes, I do.

 

[The Funster]

ND would only go to the ACC because they'd have more control than if they'd go to the Big 10. They want to wag the dog. I also don't see the egos at the Golden Dome giving up football independence as long as Texas has it's own network. I expect ND to stay with the existing BE non-football schools for all sports and retaining football independence.

 

[gars44]

ND would only go to the ACC because they'd have more control than if they'd go to the Big 10. They want to wag the dog. I also don't see the egos at the Golden Dome giving up football independence as long as Texas has it's own network. I expect ND to stay with the existing BE non-football schools for all sports and retaining football independence.

My point exactly. ND will never have a reason to join a conference unless football independence becomes unmanageable. It's not even close. Way too much institutional resistance to giving up independence.

 

[gars44]

As to your first point, because we know the ND administration decided to join the Big Ten a number of years ago before they let the alumni veto the idea.

As to your second, I have no idea what Herbst would do. But do I think fan reaction was part of the Notre Dame contract never been signed? Yes, I do.

BL, you may be right as to the first point but demographics have changed in the last 10 years, making them reconsider a long term sign up with the decaying rust belt conference. The ACC demographic is growing by leaps and bounds. Be that as it may, conference affiliation with any conference is way second to independence, and independence is not in any serious jeopardy in the near term. I think Notre Dame passes on this round of re-alignment. This means that if the ACC moves forward, it looks good for CT and RU. I really don't think ND cares.

Btw, FSU is not in love with further dilution of the football product by adding Uconn and Rutgers. Pitt and Syracuse was bad enough. FSU poobahs are wondering to themselves right now, "what else does Duke and North Carolina want, for God's sake." That's a problem.

 

[UCDaveD]

Notre Dame can kiss my ass.

 

[freescooter]

My point exactly. ND will never have a reason to join a conference unless football independence becomes unmanageable. It's not even close. Why too much institutional resistance to giving up independence.

One thing that is hard to quantify here, though is the reaction of the Notre Dame Alumni. I'm thinking that they would grudingly accept a move to the Big 10, but might well view a move to the ACC as more of a step down than they are willing to accept. Now the administration might be able to position it to work, but I'm not so sure about that. As far as football prestige is concerned, in no known universe are Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech as prestigious as Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and it doesn't really matter who would win a matchup.

 

[huskeynut]

ND is playing two sides against the middle with the hope of maintaining their football independence while finding a place for their other sports teams. I don't think the ACC is going to wait more than a week or two on ND. If ND continues to play this game, they may be the ones on the outside looking in.

I think we are next in the ACC with what we bring to the table in terms of academics and athletics. The question remains who with be the 16th - ND, Rutgers, WVU or someone else?

 

[jrazz12]

Possible scenario for us to go B1G:
At this point, everyone is really just waiting on TX. Once Texas makes its move west (disintegrating the Big 12), Baylor will need to drop its petty lawsuit and face the music.

SEC can then take A&M and move on its 14th team. If that is WVU, that has to spell the end of the Big East. UConn and RU have further cover for announcing their intentions to leave, and ND has their hand forced. Assuming they want B1G, and B1G wants to lock in a strong presence in the NYC/Eastern market, they take UConn, ND, and RU, adding Mizzou as 16.

I still think ACC is more likely, but this B1G move could really take shape here as soon as Texas goes.

 

[upstater]

1. The Big Ten wants Notre Dame, and Notre Dame's first choice is the Big Ten, but in each case it will depend on the terms. Not inconceivable that the ACC offers ND better terms and not inconceivable the Big Ten won't match them and ND goes south.

2. I am very concerned, very concerned, that if ND is negotiating with the ACC they would prefer Rutgers to us to play in the Meadowlands (which are fan base so brilliantly went ballistic about) and help their New Jersey recruiting base. Big problem.

3. On the other hand, ND's first preference is to keep the Big EAst alive, the remaining football schools aligned with the Catholics, so it doesn't have to change. If the ACC wants to force ND's hand, the move is to take UConn. That so harms men's hoops on top of Pitt and Syracuse gone, kills womens hoops, harms baseball, soccer, track, field hockey, .... Then, the ACC tells ND in thirty days if we don't have you lined up as #16 we're offering Rutgers.

4. Swofford has played this dead on correctly from the beginning. He is forcing everyone's hand, and knows with unlimited time he loses because the SEC and Big Ten have stronger hands to play. But this strategy is the win-win for him, in that either he forces ND in or at worst he guaranties that the ACC will be as strong in the Northeast going forward as the Big Ten (which he has not yet accomplished).

That would be my hope. As I said the other day, I think ND knows it's done as an independent in football. What you're watching now is a play being acted out to shield the administration from the alumni when they join somewhere.

What I don't understand about your initial point, however, is that ND's bid to keep its TV package would be met enthusiastically by B10. Oh, you say you don't want to participate in Big10 TV revenue sharing? You'd rather join and keep your own package? Well, yes, be our guest!! We'll pay ut $30 million a year per team on our end, you can stick with your $8-12 million.

 

[upstater]

Also, ND has never wanted to join the Big 10 despite their long term rivalries with MSU, UM, Purdue, etc. They would feel right at home with BC, UNC, Duke, UVA, GT, etc.

This statement totally conflicts with the facts. ND elected to join the BigTen about a decade ago. They were in. Only a last minute powow in a French chalet by alumni who wanted to remain independent put the kibbosh on it. AD, President, trustees, etc., all said yes to the Big10. Alumni brought the hammer down.

I wonder if alumni are sick of what's been going on at ND by now.

 

[upstater]

I'd like to call the ACC a number of things, but stupid isn't one of them. This fiasco has the fingerprints of the morally challenged Gene Di all over it. I don't think the ACC is going to wait for anyone unless it fits into their own agenda. Of all the conferences in this reorganization mess, they have been the least likely to tip their hand.

But they do have FSU, VT and Clemson clamoring for more football. That would be ND.

 

[businesslawyer]

What I don't understand about your initial point, however, is that ND's bid to keep its TV package would be met enthusiastically by B10. Oh, you say you don't want to participate in Big10 TV revenue sharing? You'd rather join and keep your own package? Well, yes, be our guest!! We'll pay ut $30 million a year per team on our end, you can stick with your $8-12 million.

I'm not sure what you think I said, but we both new that, in the current marketplace, ND's contract with NBC is under market and will go up when it expires. Despite the Irish's mediocrity on the field, its market power is still there. There is no way, long term, ND's TV rights aren't worth more than the average Big Ten game (what would a 6 versus 7 game be -- Iowa versus Michigan State).

 

[upstater]

My point exactly. ND will never have a reason to join a conference unless football independence becomes unmanageable. It's not even close. Way too much institutional resistance to giving up independence.

I agree with this. But if ever forced into it, I can't see why they'd pick the ACC over the Big10.

 

[upstater]

I'm not sure what you think I said, but we both new that, in the current marketplace, ND's contract with NBC is under market and will go up when it expires. Despite the Irish's mediocrity on the field, its market power is still there. There is no way, long term, ND's TV rights aren't worth more than the average Big Ten game (what would a 6 versus 7 game be -- Iowa versus Michigan State).

It would have to triple for it to be worth as much, and even then, what would it gain by demanding its own deal? The money would be even steven. unless it's envisioning $40 million a year.

I wonder, where in the world is all this money coming from?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Nothing will force Notre Dame's hand with the current BCS set-up. They will remain an independent because they have no reason to join a conference. Why would they join a 16 team conference which: a) gives up their independence b) takes away their scheduling freedom c) makes it a lot harder to qualify for the BCS. The olympic sports here are such an afterthought it doesn't even make sense to mention them. At worse they end up aligned with catholic basketball schools. In addition, (according to quick google search) Notre Dame's endowment is $5.5 billion. A few million dollars extra in a tv contract is not going to break the bank for them.

IF a few years down the road the 4 16 team superconferences becomes a reality, like everyone is predicting, and a playoff is instituted, then ND will join a conference.

You really think any conference wouldn't expand to 17 teams to let Notre Dame in?

 

[businesslawyer]

But they do have FSU, VT and Clemson clamoring for more football. That would be ND.

They would love ND, and that isn't limited to the southern football first schools. I do believe, however, that the ACC knows that its best chance of getting ND is to force a decision -- not engage in a waiting game. ND will always win a waiting game because it prefers the status quo. ACC's chance of getting the Irish is by saying "Status quo is dead and we're moving on with or without you -- which way would you prefer it."

 

[businesslawyer]

It would have to triple for it to be worth as much, and even then, what would it gain by demanding its own deal? The money would be even steven. unless it's envisioning $40 million a year.

I wonder, where in the world is all this money coming from?

The last comment is perfectly fair, but can be applied to any of the contracts being signed up over the last year.

 

[ctchamps]

ND and the ACC are both making tactical moves. ND is buying time until they can see how the dust settles with the B12 and the remaining BE football schools. Their first preference is to stay independent in football and have a good conference to play all other sports. Their football contract is huge. They will not drop it. Any conference taking them will have to make compromises. I don't see this taking place in the B1G or even by the ACC for that matter. So they are waiting for the demise of the B12 to see what configuration takes place with the remnants of the BE and B12. Only if that configuration is unappealing will they really look at the ACC.

The ACC will take its time selecting the 15th and 16th teams. The gamble is the B1G may poach Rutgers and UConn and effectively reduce the monopoly they could have in the NE (an argument presented by BL and very plausible). But they have to weigh this potential loss with trying to appease FSU. I'm of the opinion that UConn would have been already accepted if FSU was not concerned about the relative weakness of UConn football and the consequence of making the conference weaker football wise with its addition. Duke, NC, Maryland and probably the Virginia schools are salivating at the prospect of bringing UConn into the fold. The argument that Miami and BC are blocking things are less likely imo. Those schools left the BE because it made business sense at the time they made the decision. Things didn't work out as planned and they would see a potential business advantage in adding Rutgers and UConn into the ACC for their schools, particularly BC. Vendettas end when opportunities arise.

Miami and BC do not have options. They are limited to the ACC. FSU is a different story. They have options and good ones. They could be a dominant player in the ACC or be a very good rival in the SEC. They would prefer being the top dog in the ACC, imo, but not if the conference is second rate. So they want Texas and/or ND badly even if they have to make compromises or its unrealistic. And if they get their wish and it doesn't work out they could head to the SEC. The other ACC schools, with the possible exception to VT, don't have this option.

So the upshot, if I'm correct, is that this posturing by Swofford regarding ND isn't coming from a position of power, but an attempt to appease the various factions within the ACC. ND will wait until the B12 ends and the BE and B12 remnants reconfigure, and then decide their options. If they don't like the options they will approach the ACC and then a power struggle will take place in the ACC. FSU will threaten to bolt to the SEC and the ACC members will fight amongst themselves to make a compromise arrangement with ND. But I don't see any arrangement working. The schedule would have to be tailored to ND's tastes and that won't happen. After this long delay FSU will at least see the ACC tried to get them their preference team(s). Then they bolt or stay and two or three of the remaining BE football teams are taken.

 

[jpm25]

ND isn't going to the Big 10 either. This isn't a negotiating tactic. ND wants to stay independent and keep it's sweet deal with the BE. What ND is attempting to do right now is keep the BE together. ND is located in Indiana but it is an East Coast school with an East Coast student population. ND does not want to join the Big 10. They want to maintain their National presence but play as many games as possible in the northeast. Joining a conference doesn't do this for them.

The sad part is that if the ACC offered ND the option to play their olympic sports in the ACC, ND would drop the BE like a stone.

My HATRED for ND is at an ALL TIME high right now.

actually 2x the number of students at ND come from the Midwest vs any other region, and that number is over 40% of student population. I understand why you might think some of the characteristics are similar to East Coast schools, but in reality it probably has more in common with Northwestern than most other schools.

I agree with your view of ND wanting to maintain independence for football.

 

[businesslawyer]

ND and the ACC are both making tactical moves. ND is buying time until they can see how the dust settles with the B12 and the remaining BE football schools. Their first preference is to stay independent in football and have a good conference to play all other sports. Their football contract is huge. They will not drop it. Any conference taking them will have to make compromises. I don't see this taking place in the B1G or even by the ACC for that matter. So they are waiting for the demise of the B12 to see what configuration takes place with the remnants of the BE and B12. Only if that configuration is unappealing will they really look at the ACC.

The ACC will take its time selecting the 15th and 16th teams. The gamble is the B1G may poach Rutgers and UConn and effectively reduce the monopoly they could have in the NE (an argument presented by BL and very plausible). But they have to weigh this potential loss with trying to appease FSU. I'm of the opinion that UConn would have been already accepted if FSU was not concerned about the relative weakness of UConn football and the consequence of making the conference weaker football wise with its addition. Duke, NC, Maryland and probably the Virginia schools are salivating at the prospect of bringing UConn into the fold. The argument that Miami and BC are blocking things are less likely imo. Those schools left the BE because it made business sense at the time they made the decision. Things didn't work out as planned and they would see a potential business advantage in adding Rutgers and UConn into the ACC for their schools, particularly BC. Vendettas end when opportunities arise.

Miami and BC do not have options. They are limited to the ACC. FSU is a different story. They have options and good ones. They could be a dominant player in the ACC or be a very good rival in the SEC. They would prefer being the top dog in the ACC, imo, but not if the conference is second rate. So they want Texas and/or ND badly even if they have to make compromises or its unrealistic. And if they get their wish and it doesn't work out they could head to the SEC. The other ACC schools, with the possible exception to VT, don't have this option.

So the upshot, if I'm correct, is that this posturing by Swofford regarding ND isn't coming from a position of power, but an attempt to appease the various factions within the ACC. ND will wait until the B12 ends and the BE and B12 remnants reconfigure, and then decide their options. If they don't like the options they will approach the ACC and then a power struggle will take place in the ACC. FSU will threaten to bolt to the SEC and the ACC members will fight amongst themselves to make a compromise arrangement with ND. But I don't see any arrangement working. The schedule would have to be tailored to ND's tastes and that won't happen. After this long delay FSU will at least see the ACC tried to get them their preference team(s). Then they bolt or stay and two or three of the remaining BE football teams are taken.

I think that is well written and spot on. I also think that, if and only if ND says no, FSU may tell the league "we'll give you UConn but then you've got to give us WVU instead of Rutgers." And the rest of the ACC will probably have to acquiesce, if FSU then makes a real commitment. I think, for academic reasons, no one wants to talk about WVU being a possibility unless they will actually get an offer. But I haven't ruled out that, when Texas and ND are off the table, the southern tier requires the 'Neers.

 

[jpm25]

ND and the ACC are both making tactical moves. ND is buying time until they can see how the dust settles with the B12 and the remaining BE football schools. Their first preference is to stay independent in football and have a good conference to play all other sports. Their football contract is huge. They will not drop it. Any conference taking them will have to make compromises. I don't see this taking place in the B1G or even by the ACC for that matter. So they are waiting for the demise of the B12 to see what configuration takes place with the remnants of the BE and B12. Only if that configuration is unappealing will they really look at the ACC.

The ACC will take its time selecting the 15th and 16th teams. The gamble is the B1G may poach Rutgers and UConn and effectively reduce the monopoly they could have in the NE (an argument presented by BL and very plausible). But they have to weigh this potential loss with trying to appease FSU. I'm of the opinion that UConn would have been already accepted if FSU was not concerned about the relative weakness of UConn football and the consequence of making the conference weaker football wise with its addition. Duke, NC, Maryland and probably the Virginia schools are salivating at the prospect of bringing UConn into the fold. The argument that Miami and BC are blocking things are less likely imo. Those schools left the BE because it made business sense at the time they made the decision. Things didn't work out as planned and they would see a potential business advantage in adding Rutgers and UConn into the ACC for their schools, particularly BC. Vendettas end when opportunities arise.

Miami and BC do not have options. They are limited to the ACC. FSU is a different story. They have options and good ones. They could be a dominant player in the ACC or be a very good rival in the SEC. They would prefer being the top dog in the ACC, imo, but not if the conference is second rate. So they want Texas and/or ND badly even if they have to make compromises or its unrealistic. And if they get their wish and it doesn't work out they could head to the SEC. The other ACC schools, with the possible exception to VT, don't have this option.

So the upshot, if I'm correct, is that this posturing by Swofford regarding ND isn't coming from a position of power, but an attempt to appease the various factions within the ACC. ND will wait until the B12 ends and the BE and B12 remnants reconfigure, and then decide their options. If they don't like the options they will approach the ACC and then a power struggle will take place in the ACC. FSU will threaten to bolt to the SEC and the ACC members will fight amongst themselves to make a compromise arrangement with ND. But I don't see any arrangement working. The schedule would have to be tailored to ND's tastes and that won't happen. After this long delay FSU will at least see the ACC tried to get them their preference team(s). Then they bolt or stay and two or three of the remaining BE football teams are taken.

I don't think their contract is as big as you think it is. They gross about $9mm per year from the NBC deal, and they rev share with the visiting team - that rev share was 50% but I'm not sure if that changed when they recently signed an extention. Ratings for ND games are about half what CBS and ABC enjoy. The contract is up in 2015 and may be more valuable next time around, but I think $20mm+ in the Big10 is better from a $$ perspective.

 

[ctchamps]

I think that is well written and spot on. I also think that, if and only if ND says no, FSU may tell the league "we'll give you UConn but then you've got to give us WVU instead of Rutgers." And the rest of the ACC will probably have to acquiesce, if FSU then makes a real commitment. I think, for academic reasons, no one wants to talk about WVU being a possibility unless they will actually get an offer. But I haven't ruled out that, when Texas and ND are off the table, the southern tier requires the 'Neers.

I almost added the play was for WV. I'm glad you did.

 

[uc1974]

FSU can be appeased in all this if one of #15 and #16 is a good FB school. This means ND (not very likely at all) or WVU. No other choices are reasonably available. IF ACC takes UConn and RU, FSU will be pissed. I am unsure if this would cause any further problems for ACC. Most of rest of ACC probably is not salivating over WVU, but, I have come to a conclusion that the compromise is WVU and UConn. Should ND shock the heck out of me and go ACC the choice is ND and UConn. I'll post an egg on my face notice if I'm wrong (a good probability).

 

[WestCoastHusky]

We need to remember ND is currently a NBC/COMCAST property. ESPN is trying to take that from NBC and hence all the rumor about ND joining the ACC. By joining the ACC, ESPN will get ND by default.

Remember it was most likely BE is going to sign with NBC/COMCAST. ESPN does not want to lose that to its competitor. Also, I believe ESPN gave ACC incentive to destroy the BE by inviting Pitt and SU. I have always said that was a possibility that BE would be destroyed before the next TV deal long before today and it is happening before our eyes.

ESPN is just spreading more rumors to cause more unstability. Having ND hanging around only means we might not see an ACC invite for a long long time. This is getting pretty tiring and we might end up with the BE/B12 combo leftover league.

 

[jpm25]

I'm not sure what you think I said, but we both new that, in the current marketplace, ND's contract with NBC is under market and will go up when it expires. Despite the Irish's mediocrity on the field, its market power is still there. There is no way, long term, ND's TV rights aren't worth more than the average Big Ten game (what would a 6 versus 7 game be -- Iowa versus Michigan State).

TV rights aren't sold that way. NBC would have to pay 2x what they are actually worth on an apples to apples basis with current deals to justify it. Yes, their $9mm per year is under market, but so is the Big 10 deal currently. I don't see ND eclipsing the Pac12 deal (current high water mark) in the absence of extreme despiration unless the product on the field improves dramatically and over a sustained period. They would have to be ranked in the Top 10 each week playing against a Top 10 team each week - impossible to have that foresight and to sustain both metrics.

 

[CTMike]

Why would FSU be so upset with the addition of a UConn or Rutgers? Well, Rutgers I get, but UConn?

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Why would FSU be so upset with the addition of a UConn or Rutgers? Well, Rutgers I get, but UConn?

I believe FSU wants another football power school like ND or PSU if they can get it. Texas would be another. If WVU is invited, it would be because FSU wanted it happen or they bolt for the SEC. $20M is not going to stop anyone from leaving a conference. A&M already proved that.