Notre Dame (according to ESPN)

[ctchamps]

ND and the ACC are both making tactical moves. ND is buying time until they can see how the dust settles with the B12 and the remaining BE football schools. Their first preference is to stay independent in football and have a good conference to play all other sports. Their football contract is huge. They will not drop it. Any conference taking them will have to make compromises. I don't see this taking place in the B1G or even by the ACC for that matter. So they are waiting for the demise of the B12 to see what configuration takes place with the remnants of the BE and B12. Only if that configuration is unappealing will they really look at the ACC.

The ACC will take its time selecting the 15th and 16th teams. The gamble is the B1G may poach Rutgers and UConn and effectively reduce the monopoly they could have in the NE (an argument presented by BL and very plausible). But they have to weigh this potential loss with trying to appease FSU. I'm of the opinion that UConn would have been already accepted if FSU was not concerned about the relative weakness of UConn football and the consequence of making the conference weaker football wise with its addition. Duke, NC, Maryland and probably the Virginia schools are salivating at the prospect of bringing UConn into the fold. The argument that Miami and BC are blocking things are less likely imo. Those schools left the BE because it made business sense at the time they made the decision. Things didn't work out as planned and they would see a potential business advantage in adding Rutgers and UConn into the ACC for their schools, particularly BC. Vendettas end when opportunities arise.

Miami and BC do not have options. They are limited to the ACC. FSU is a different story. They have options and good ones. They could be a dominant player in the ACC or be a very good rival in the SEC. They would prefer being the top dog in the ACC, imo, but not if the conference is second rate. So they want Texas and/or ND badly even if they have to make compromises or its unrealistic. And if they get their wish and it doesn't work out they could head to the SEC. The other ACC schools, with the possible exception to VT, don't have this option.

So the upshot, if I'm correct, is that this posturing by Swofford regarding ND isn't coming from a position of power, but an attempt to appease the various factions within the ACC. ND will wait until the B12 ends and the BE and B12 remnants reconfigure, and then decide their options. If they don't like the options they will approach the ACC and then a power struggle will take place in the ACC. FSU will threaten to bolt to the SEC and the ACC members will fight amongst themselves to make a compromise arrangement with ND. But I don't see any arrangement working. The schedule would have to be tailored to ND's tastes and that won't happen. After this long delay FSU will at least see the ACC tried to get them their preference team(s). Then they bolt or stay and two or three of the remaining BE football teams are taken.

 

[jpm25]

ND isn't going to the Big 10 either. This isn't a negotiating tactic. ND wants to stay independent and keep it's sweet deal with the BE. What ND is attempting to do right now is keep the BE together. ND is located in Indiana but it is an East Coast school with an East Coast student population. ND does not want to join the Big 10. They want to maintain their National presence but play as many games as possible in the northeast. Joining a conference doesn't do this for them.

The sad part is that if the ACC offered ND the option to play their olympic sports in the ACC, ND would drop the BE like a stone.

My HATRED for ND is at an ALL TIME high right now.

actually 2x the number of students at ND come from the Midwest vs any other region, and that number is over 40% of student population. I understand why you might think some of the characteristics are similar to East Coast schools, but in reality it probably has more in common with Northwestern than most other schools.

I agree with your view of ND wanting to maintain independence for football.

 

[businesslawyer]

ND and the ACC are both making tactical moves. ND is buying time until they can see how the dust settles with the B12 and the remaining BE football schools. Their first preference is to stay independent in football and have a good conference to play all other sports. Their football contract is huge. They will not drop it. Any conference taking them will have to make compromises. I don't see this taking place in the B1G or even by the ACC for that matter. So they are waiting for the demise of the B12 to see what configuration takes place with the remnants of the BE and B12. Only if that configuration is unappealing will they really look at the ACC.

The ACC will take its time selecting the 15th and 16th teams. The gamble is the B1G may poach Rutgers and UConn and effectively reduce the monopoly they could have in the NE (an argument presented by BL and very plausible). But they have to weigh this potential loss with trying to appease FSU. I'm of the opinion that UConn would have been already accepted if FSU was not concerned about the relative weakness of UConn football and the consequence of making the conference weaker football wise with its addition. Duke, NC, Maryland and probably the Virginia schools are salivating at the prospect of bringing UConn into the fold. The argument that Miami and BC are blocking things are less likely imo. Those schools left the BE because it made business sense at the time they made the decision. Things didn't work out as planned and they would see a potential business advantage in adding Rutgers and UConn into the ACC for their schools, particularly BC. Vendettas end when opportunities arise.

Miami and BC do not have options. They are limited to the ACC. FSU is a different story. They have options and good ones. They could be a dominant player in the ACC or be a very good rival in the SEC. They would prefer being the top dog in the ACC, imo, but not if the conference is second rate. So they want Texas and/or ND badly even if they have to make compromises or its unrealistic. And if they get their wish and it doesn't work out they could head to the SEC. The other ACC schools, with the possible exception to VT, don't have this option.

So the upshot, if I'm correct, is that this posturing by Swofford regarding ND isn't coming from a position of power, but an attempt to appease the various factions within the ACC. ND will wait until the B12 ends and the BE and B12 remnants reconfigure, and then decide their options. If they don't like the options they will approach the ACC and then a power struggle will take place in the ACC. FSU will threaten to bolt to the SEC and the ACC members will fight amongst themselves to make a compromise arrangement with ND. But I don't see any arrangement working. The schedule would have to be tailored to ND's tastes and that won't happen. After this long delay FSU will at least see the ACC tried to get them their preference team(s). Then they bolt or stay and two or three of the remaining BE football teams are taken.

I think that is well written and spot on. I also think that, if and only if ND says no, FSU may tell the league "we'll give you UConn but then you've got to give us WVU instead of Rutgers." And the rest of the ACC will probably have to acquiesce, if FSU then makes a real commitment. I think, for academic reasons, no one wants to talk about WVU being a possibility unless they will actually get an offer. But I haven't ruled out that, when Texas and ND are off the table, the southern tier requires the 'Neers.

 

[jpm25]

ND and the ACC are both making tactical moves. ND is buying time until they can see how the dust settles with the B12 and the remaining BE football schools. Their first preference is to stay independent in football and have a good conference to play all other sports. Their football contract is huge. They will not drop it. Any conference taking them will have to make compromises. I don't see this taking place in the B1G or even by the ACC for that matter. So they are waiting for the demise of the B12 to see what configuration takes place with the remnants of the BE and B12. Only if that configuration is unappealing will they really look at the ACC.

The ACC will take its time selecting the 15th and 16th teams. The gamble is the B1G may poach Rutgers and UConn and effectively reduce the monopoly they could have in the NE (an argument presented by BL and very plausible). But they have to weigh this potential loss with trying to appease FSU. I'm of the opinion that UConn would have been already accepted if FSU was not concerned about the relative weakness of UConn football and the consequence of making the conference weaker football wise with its addition. Duke, NC, Maryland and probably the Virginia schools are salivating at the prospect of bringing UConn into the fold. The argument that Miami and BC are blocking things are less likely imo. Those schools left the BE because it made business sense at the time they made the decision. Things didn't work out as planned and they would see a potential business advantage in adding Rutgers and UConn into the ACC for their schools, particularly BC. Vendettas end when opportunities arise.

Miami and BC do not have options. They are limited to the ACC. FSU is a different story. They have options and good ones. They could be a dominant player in the ACC or be a very good rival in the SEC. They would prefer being the top dog in the ACC, imo, but not if the conference is second rate. So they want Texas and/or ND badly even if they have to make compromises or its unrealistic. And if they get their wish and it doesn't work out they could head to the SEC. The other ACC schools, with the possible exception to VT, don't have this option.

So the upshot, if I'm correct, is that this posturing by Swofford regarding ND isn't coming from a position of power, but an attempt to appease the various factions within the ACC. ND will wait until the B12 ends and the BE and B12 remnants reconfigure, and then decide their options. If they don't like the options they will approach the ACC and then a power struggle will take place in the ACC. FSU will threaten to bolt to the SEC and the ACC members will fight amongst themselves to make a compromise arrangement with ND. But I don't see any arrangement working. The schedule would have to be tailored to ND's tastes and that won't happen. After this long delay FSU will at least see the ACC tried to get them their preference team(s). Then they bolt or stay and two or three of the remaining BE football teams are taken.

I don't think their contract is as big as you think it is. They gross about $9mm per year from the NBC deal, and they rev share with the visiting team - that rev share was 50% but I'm not sure if that changed when they recently signed an extention. Ratings for ND games are about half what CBS and ABC enjoy. The contract is up in 2015 and may be more valuable next time around, but I think $20mm+ in the Big10 is better from a $$ perspective.

 

[ctchamps]

I think that is well written and spot on. I also think that, if and only if ND says no, FSU may tell the league "we'll give you UConn but then you've got to give us WVU instead of Rutgers." And the rest of the ACC will probably have to acquiesce, if FSU then makes a real commitment. I think, for academic reasons, no one wants to talk about WVU being a possibility unless they will actually get an offer. But I haven't ruled out that, when Texas and ND are off the table, the southern tier requires the 'Neers.

I almost added the play was for WV. I'm glad you did.

 

[uc1974]

FSU can be appeased in all this if one of #15 and #16 is a good FB school. This means ND (not very likely at all) or WVU. No other choices are reasonably available. IF ACC takes UConn and RU, FSU will be pissed. I am unsure if this would cause any further problems for ACC. Most of rest of ACC probably is not salivating over WVU, but, I have come to a conclusion that the compromise is WVU and UConn. Should ND shock the heck out of me and go ACC the choice is ND and UConn. I'll post an egg on my face notice if I'm wrong (a good probability).

 

[WestCoastHusky]

We need to remember ND is currently a NBC/COMCAST property. ESPN is trying to take that from NBC and hence all the rumor about ND joining the ACC. By joining the ACC, ESPN will get ND by default.

Remember it was most likely BE is going to sign with NBC/COMCAST. ESPN does not want to lose that to its competitor. Also, I believe ESPN gave ACC incentive to destroy the BE by inviting Pitt and SU. I have always said that was a possibility that BE would be destroyed before the next TV deal long before today and it is happening before our eyes.

ESPN is just spreading more rumors to cause more unstability. Having ND hanging around only means we might not see an ACC invite for a long long time. This is getting pretty tiring and we might end up with the BE/B12 combo leftover league.

 

[jpm25]

I'm not sure what you think I said, but we both new that, in the current marketplace, ND's contract with NBC is under market and will go up when it expires. Despite the Irish's mediocrity on the field, its market power is still there. There is no way, long term, ND's TV rights aren't worth more than the average Big Ten game (what would a 6 versus 7 game be -- Iowa versus Michigan State).

TV rights aren't sold that way. NBC would have to pay 2x what they are actually worth on an apples to apples basis with current deals to justify it. Yes, their $9mm per year is under market, but so is the Big 10 deal currently. I don't see ND eclipsing the Pac12 deal (current high water mark) in the absence of extreme despiration unless the product on the field improves dramatically and over a sustained period. They would have to be ranked in the Top 10 each week playing against a Top 10 team each week - impossible to have that foresight and to sustain both metrics.

 

[CTMike]

Why would FSU be so upset with the addition of a UConn or Rutgers? Well, Rutgers I get, but UConn?

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Why would FSU be so upset with the addition of a UConn or Rutgers? Well, Rutgers I get, but UConn?

I believe FSU wants another football power school like ND or PSU if they can get it. Texas would be another. If WVU is invited, it would be because FSU wanted it happen or they bolt for the SEC. $20M is not going to stop anyone from leaving a conference. A&M already proved that.

 

[1husky]

I believe ND to the ACC was decided weeks ago or even as far back as a year ago. The timing just wasn’t right back then. Thus the posturing from ND about “seismic shifts” making them possibly reconsider independence in the future. Also, why would FSU, VT, and Clemson, etc agree to increasing the penalty for leaving the ACC to $20M last week?? Because they knew Pitt / SU were coming followed closely by UConn and, most importantly, ND. Football schools, Basketball schools, presidents, and alumni will all be happy and BC will not block us because we are coming with ND AND we fill up their stadium / arena.

The admin at ND understands the culture, demographics, competitiveness, athletics, and tv require them to join a conference. They just need the alumni / donors to believe they are being forced into the best of all bad situations and the ACC is not really that bad of a situation for them. Just need to have the alumni see 16 team conferences are a reality when Texas makes their move to the PAC first and then all the pieces will be in place. The media is already talking about this as are all the message boards so the donors can get comfortable with the idea.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Why would FSU be so upset with the addition of a UConn or Rutgers? Well, Rutgers I get, but UConn?

It's not the UConn or Rutgers part it's the UConn and Rutgers part. They want ND and UConn and/or Rutgers. Notre Dame and Texas hold a lot of cards and are probably trying to wait each other out. ND desperately would love for Texas to not go to the PAC so that they don't have to worry about getting locked out of the 4 x 64 superconference structure. I would assume there are discussions ongoing about what the structure would be of a merged Big 12/Big East that include the possibility of Texas and Notre Dame being a part of it. This would be the best possible outcome for ND regardless of whether Texas goes indie for football or remains as a full member of the Big Merge. Either way UConn will be OK I think. But I'd rather not be in a conference where ND is halfway in. Honestly, I think we'll be waiting a long while for everyone to go to 16 if ND doesn't decide to go to a conference soon.

Even if Texas goes to the PAC the ACC and Big 10 are not going all the way to 16 until ND makes a decision. I could see a situation where they both get to 15 and just wait.

 

[gars44]

I believe FSU wants another football power school like ND or PSU if they can get it. Texas would be another. If WVU is invited, it would be because FSU wanted it happen or they bolt for the SEC. $20M is not going to stop anyone from leaving a conference. A&M already proved that.

Right. FSU just doesn't want to be playing football with a bunch of pansies, such as the old ACC and the new big east. They may have to, but they are asking themselves, why are we becoming the new Big Least? Why are we expanding to take in Rut, Uconn, Syracuse and Pitt? What do they bring to the table? Why didn't we just hold tight at 12? That's the FSU line. Now the rest of the conference is saying, OK, what do we have when FSU and VT bolt to the SEC? How are we positioned? One answer to that question is, if you have the northeast fairly well locked up, you can develop a rivalry up and down the coast that is bullet proof to any attacks on the aq bid, and makes for a profitable conference in the no.1 demographic. It's a form of protection. So, I don't think anyone is posturing for WVA right now. It's ND, and if not, at least solidify the eastern demographic, and esp., NYC. To do that Rutgers has to be in the equation.

 

[gars44]

I believe ND to the ACC was decided weeks ago or even as far back as a year ago. The timing just wasn’t right back then. Thus the posturing from ND about “seismic shifts” making them possibly reconsider independence in the future. Also, why would FSU, VT, and Clemson, etc agree to increasing the penalty for leaving the ACC to $20M last week?? Because they knew Pitt / SU were coming followed closely by UConn and, most importantly, ND. Football schools, Basketball schools, presidents, and alumni will all be happy and BC will not block us because we are coming with ND AND we fill up their stadium / arena.

The admin at ND understands the culture, demographics, competitiveness, athletics, and tv require them to join a conference. They just need the alumni / donors to believe they are being forced into the best of all bad situations and the ACC is not really that bad of a situation for them. Just need to have the alumni see 16 team conferences are a reality when Texas makes their move to the PAC first and then all the pieces will be in place. The media is already talking about this as are all the message boards so the donors can get comfortable with the idea.

Conspiracy theory. The NSA is also monitoring your posts. (I really don't look like this!)

 

[TerryD]

What I don't understand about your initial point, however, is that ND's bid to keep its TV package would be met enthusiastically by B10. Oh, you say you don't want to participate in Big10 TV revenue sharing? You'd rather join and keep your own package? Well, yes, be our guest!! We'll pay ut $30 million a year per team on our end, you can stick with your $8-12 million.

I had to sign up as an ND fan to respond to a few things.

ND wants #1 (and it is not close) to stay independent in football and play its other sports in the Big East or some other conference (Catholic League, Big 12, ACC, etc..). The Big 12 and ACC are likely not available for this option.

ND despises the Big Ten and will not join that conference unless it was the last, putrid option available. There are numerous reasons for their hatred of the Big Ten. They are deep seated. The alumni view this as the worst possible outcome.

ND will go to the ACC before it ever goes to the Big Ten. Anyone thinking that ND has more than 0% interest in the Big Ten is mistaken.

Finally, the current ND NBC contract pays out $15 million, not $9 million. The payout was increased at the 2010 renewal of the contract. That contract comes up for a bid in 2015.

 

[upstater]

I had to sign up as an ND fan to respond to a few things.

ND wants #1 (and it is not close) to stay independent in football and play its other sports in the Big East or some other conference (Catholic League, Big 12, ACC, etc..). The Big 12 and ACC are likely not available for this option.

ND despises the Big Ten and will not join that conference unless it was the last, putrid option available. There are numerous reasons for their hatred of the Big Ten. They are deep seated. The alumni view this as the worst possible outcome.

ND will go to the ACC before it ever goes to the Big Ten. Anyone thinking that ND has more than 0% interest in the Big Ten is mistaken.

Finally, the current ND NBC contract pays out $15 million, not $9 million. The payout was increased at the 2010 renewal of the contract. That contract comes up for a bid in 2015.

Still not B10 money AND ND has a funny way of expressing its 0% interest in the Big10. Because a decade ago they decided they wanted IN.

 

[2Infinity]

I had to sign up as an ND fan to respond to a few things.

ND wants #1 (and it is not close) to stay independent in football and play its other sports in the Big East or some other conference (Catholic League, Big 12, ACC, etc..). The Big 12 and ACC are likely not available for this option.

ND despises the Big Ten and will not join that conference unless it was the last, putrid option available. There are numerous reasons for their hatred of the Big Ten. They are deep seated. The alumni view this as the worst possible outcome.

ND will go to the ACC before it ever goes to the Big Ten. Anyone thinking that ND has more than 0% interest in the Big Ten is mistaken.

Finally, the current ND NBC contract pays out $15 million, not $9 million. The payout was increased at the 2010 renewal of the contract. That contract comes up for a bid in 2015.

Welcome ND fan! Nice to hear the perspective of someone so knowledgeable regarding ND's current status and viewpoints. That being said, assuming the BE does not survive, and Texas bolts for the B1G, as is now being speculated, does ND then feel compelled to join the ACC? Alternatively, it sounds as if you're suggesting that ND would prefer to play it's non-football sports against the remnants of the BE, were they to form a new conference comprised of the current BE basketball schools. Given those two choices, and assuming NO desire to join the B1G, what odds would you place on each outcome?

Finally, if the ACC were the option chosen, do you see ND specifying a preferred 16th school to go in with them? If so, who do you see that being?

 

[Peacefrog]

I had to sign up as an ND fan to respond to a few things.

ND wants #1 (and it is not close) to stay independent in football and play its other sports in the Big East or some other conference (Catholic League, Big 12, ACC, etc..). The Big 12 and ACC are likely not available for this option.

ND despises the Big Ten and will not join that conference unless it was the last, putrid option available. There are numerous reasons for their hatred of the Big Ten. They are deep seated. The alumni view this as the worst possible outcome.

ND will go to the ACC before it ever goes to the Big Ten. Anyone thinking that ND has more than 0% interest in the Big Ten is mistaken.

Finally, the current ND NBC contract pays out $15 million, not $9 million. The payout was increased at the 2010 renewal of the contract. That contract comes up for a bid in 2015.

I thought ND didn't want the Big 10 because they didn't want to play in a conference where they would only finish about .500 every year. They have a much better chance of finishing at or near the top of the ACC than the Big 10. With ND football not being what it used to be they would have a better chance for relevance in the ACC.

 

[SAMCRO]

Still not B10 money AND ND has a funny way of expressing its 0% interest in the Big10. Because a decade ago they decided they wanted IN.

You can tell they hate being associated with the B10 the way a 25% of their annual FB schedule is against B10 teams. It must be a catholic football school thing.

 

[Danzz]

I see more downside for us in ND going to the ACC than potential upside. Sure I like UConn over RU and think the ACC would be crazy to take them as 16 over us, but I would much rather have 2 open spots.

I'm on the other side of this one. If there are 2 open spots the ACC could conceivably stand pat at 14. I guess I just don't see the value of Rutgers. The NYC area is not much of a college market and Rutgers is pretty far away from NYC. The other thing about Rutgers is that their athletics are on life support. I would hate to see Uconn's future based upon a Rutgers evaluation by the ACC but if you are right it may come down to that. And then there is always the possibility of a shocker team to the ACC and that changes everything.
The more you think about it, the muddier it gets.

 

[Murph]

Terry is a cool ND fan. He also posts over at NCAAbbs and is a sensible and logical poster. Don't beat him up too much.