Nothin is as good as it looks, and Nothin is as bad as it seems.

[Tonyc]

Well were lookin better. Shot over 50% again. We've done a a few times in the past few games. We needed scorers and now Nika is shooting, Aaliyah and Griff are scoring much better. This is exactly what we needed more scorers. Shade has picked up the scoring too. Our newbies arent afraid to shot the ball and they show no hesitation.

It looks like we're gonna lack height until Ice gets up to speed. The other age old question is will Amari get significant minutes in a game like Butler or Met in Canada? Will Amari ever come around and be able to contribute???? The coaching staff needs to have confidence in her and they will once/if Amari steps up.

Our shooting percentage has been over 50% in a couple of the past few games. A direct correlation to being able to get out on fast breaks which is directly related to our defense making steals and us getting down low and not missing. What has happened and was very evident yesterday was UConn wasnt looking for Paige to score. They took it upon themselves to find their spot, get open and hit the shot. Alot of that has to do with UConn going small and having 3 point guards on the floor at the same time. By having Nika Griff and Shade as well as some of the non starters taking shots its opened up the middle allowing Aaliyah more room to score as well as the dribble drives we've seen.

Defensively we looked much more improved with more consistency yesterday. We are beginning to see the hard work pay off. When I look back at some of the games we lost its easy to point a finger at the kids who had off nites scoring. Alot of that had to do with execution and who was on the floor. To be where we are the past couple of games after the way we started is refreshing. We are beginning to look like UConn again.

Not to get ahead but if Paige and maybe Aaliyah stay one more season and everybody else gets healthy the dream we had of seeing Paige Azzi and Caroline play together healthy just may become a reality next season. For now we go with who we have.

Im looking for to UConn showing continued improvement against Butler and Metro in Canada then the Holiday layoff and we come back for 2 ranked teams in Marquette and Creighton. Both games will be challenges. For those of you concerned about the polls. Well all these top teams playin their cupcake schedules will have to face some top teams beginning January. Those easy blowouts theyve had, they wont have to many coming up. There will be alot of changes in the polls coming up and UConn will have something to say about that too.

UConn is much improved over the past couple of games. I expect that trend to continue with the frosh getting acclimated and everybody shooting better and competing for time as a team. Alot more contributions from everybody not named Paige and we still have Paige who IMO is the best go to player in WCBB. Paige makes plays on both sides of the ball. An ole saying I have is "nothing is a bad as it seems and nothing is as good as it looks." UConn has shown that early this season.

 

[Bills Fan]

Well were lookin better. Shot over 50% again. We've done a a few times in the past few games. We needed scorers and now Nika is shooting, Aaliyah and Griff are scoring much better. This is exactly what we needed more scorers. Shade has picked up the scoring too. Our newbies arent afraid to shot the ball and they show no hesitation.

It looks like we're gonna lack height until Ice gets up to speed. The other age old question is will Amari get significant minutes in a game like Butler or Met in Canada? Will Amari ever come around and be able to contribute???? The coaching staff needs to have confidence in her and they will once/if Amari steps up.

Our shooting percentage has been over 50% in a couple of the past few games. A direct correlation to being able to get out on fast breaks which is directly related to our defense making steals and us getting down low and not missing. What has happened and was very evident yesterday was UConn wasnt looking for Paige to score. They took it upon themselves to find their spot, get open and hit the shot. Alot of that has to do with UConn going small and having 3 point guards on the floor at the same time. By having Nika Griff and Shade as well as some of the non starters taking shots its opened up the middle allowing Aaliyah more room to score as well as the dribble drives we've seen.

Defensively we looked much more improved with more consistency yesterday. We are beginning to see the hard work pay off. When I look back at some of the games we lost its easy to point a finger at the kids who had off nites scoring. Alot of that had to do with execution and who was on the floor. To be where we are the past couple of games after the way we started is refreshing. We are beginning to look like UConn again.

Not to get ahead but if Paige and maybe Aaliyah stay one more season and everybody else gets healthy the dream we had of seeing Paige Azzi and Caroline play together healthy just may become a reality next season. For now we go with who we have.

Im looking for to UConn showing continued improvement against Butler and Metro in Canada then the Holiday layoff and we come back for 2 ranked teams in Marquette and Creighton. Both games will be challenges. For those of you concerned about the polls. Well all these top teams playin their cupcake schedules will have to face some top teams beginning January. Those easy blowouts theyve had, they wont have to many coming up. There will be alot of changes in the polls coming up and UConn will have something to say about that too.

UConn is much improved over the past couple of games. I expect that trend to continue with the frosh getting acclimated and everybody shooting better and competing for time as a team. Alot more contributions from everybody not named Paige and we still have Paige who IMO is the best go to player in WCBB. Paige makes plays on both sides of the ball. An ole saying I have is "nothing is a bad as it seems and nothing is as good as it looks." UConn has shown that early this season.

Tonyc, I absolutely love your over the top positive comments and not to sound over the top negative, here are a few rejoinders to the above post.

For you and a couple of other posters, you'll need to realize that the Amari train has not and will not ever leave the station. Yes if we have Liya, Ice and,/or Griff miss time due to foul trouble or an injury, then Geno will have no other option than to play her. Otherwise after three years in the program, she has firmly established her role.

Yes I, like you, would love to see PB, AE, Griff (does she still have a Covid year available?), Caroline and yes, Nika return next year to join up with Jana, Azzi, Ayanna, our current FR and incoming recruits. However, we need to realize that our current best players - PB, AE, and Griff are just as likely to depart as they are to stay and there is a good chance that Caroline might be done. Where would we have been yesterday, and the rest of the season, w/o our three "seniors"?

As a fan, I repeat that I hope at least some of your dreamworld for 2024-25 happens. I just am not betting the farm on it.

 

[SLY63]

In terms of team progression, love the way KK and Shade are progressing, but the end of the year they should be fine. I have concerns with Ice. IMO, to go far in the NCAAs, we need a solid 20 minutes from Ice. I hope Geno really works to develop her now that the Big East is starting.

 

[Tonyc]

Tonyc, I absolutely love your over the top positive comments and not to sound over the top negative, here are a few rejoinders to the above post.

For you and a couple of other posters, you'll need to realize that the Amari train has not and will not ever leave the station. Yes if we have Liya, Ice and,/or Griff miss time due to foul trouble or an injury, then Geno will have no other option than to play her. Otherwise after three years in the program, she has firmly established her role.

Yes I, like you, would love to see PB, AE, Griff (does she still have a Covid year available?), Caroline and yes, Nika return next year to join up with Jana, Azzi, Ayanna, our current FR and incoming recruits. However, we need to realize that our current best players - PB, AE, and Griff are just as likely to depart as they are to stay and there is a good chance that Caroline might be done. Where would we have been yesterday, and the rest of the season, w/o our three "seniors"?

As a fan, I repeat that I hope at least some of your dreamworld for 2024-25 happens. I just am not betting the farm on it.

Some people have compared Amari to Heather Buck. Heather came around late in her Senior season. Geno brought in help to try and get her going. Nothing seemed to work and then one day it did. Im hoping at some point sooner then later Amari reaches that peak. I would agree with you Caroline may be done however reading a post this morning and forgive me I forgot who posted it that his daughter went through a concussion and it tokk approx 9 months for her to recover fully gives me hope regarding Caroline.

The reason I brought up Paige staying because she was instrumental in helping get Azzi to come and playing together. Now that her friend Azzi is injured next year may be the only time Paige and Azzi can play together and win a NC. For that thought alone makes me think she may come back.

As you know I try to always be positive and when theres hope I go with it.

 

[Centerstream]

Tonyc, I absolutely love your over the top positive comments and not to sound over the top negative, here are a few rejoinders to the above post.

For you and a couple of other posters, you'll need to realize that the Amari train has not and will not ever leave the station. Yes if we have Liya, Ice and,/or Griff miss time due to foul trouble or an injury, then Geno will have no other option than to play her. Otherwise after three years in the program, she has firmly established her role.

Yes I, like you, would love to see PB, AE, Griff (does she still have a Covid year available?), Caroline and yes, Nika return next year to join up with Jana, Azzi, Ayanna, our current FR and incoming recruits. However, we need to realize that our current best players - PB, AE, and Griff are just as likely to depart as they are to stay and there is a good chance that Caroline might be done. Where would we have been yesterday, and the rest of the season, w/o our three "seniors"?

As a fan, I repeat that I hope at least some of your dreamworld for 2024-25 happens. I just am not betting the farm on it.

Aubrey does have one more year of eligibility, based upon the roster chart that @BRS24 keeps updated. And I take BRS24's work as gospel.

 

[BRS24]

Aubrey does have one more year of eligibility, based upon the roster chart that @BRS24 keeps updated. And I take BRS24's work as gospel.

Aw shucks. Aubrey can use a redshirt year in 23-24, as this season is her covid makeup year. After that, who knows, and thus why I probably won't do any upsumptions or assdates for a while. LOL

 

[Bone Dog]

Just to second our current wave of optimism stemming from this happy sequence of games, I notice that Warren Nolan has calculated the latest RPI and has UConn ranked #1. Okay, none of these ranking systems are all that reliable this early, but this at least shows that there must be a not entirely unreasonable way of looking at our season so far that supports optimism.

And his predicted RPI has us also at #1 and going 26-4, presumably with a loss to SC. Of course, NET puts us at 13, up 4 from last week. I can't believe I'm saying this, but NET seems more reasonable than RPI, which I would never have said this early in the season in past years. At least, RPI must value SoS much more than the NET does, because I can't figure what else would support such a result.

And is it really possible we could go 26-4? That would mean we beat ND, which is the main obstacle besides SC on our schedule. It's certainly possible that we could drop some games to Big East opponents. But if we sweep the conference, then the worst we could do is 25-5. So, yes, 26-4 is possible. And it looks even more possible as long as ND is without Miles, Citron and Prosper. If they manage to return by 1/27, this hurdle looks a lot higher. On the other hand, what are we in this for if not to challenge teams at their best! As for me, I'm hoping for 27-3, because, you know, optimism!

 

[sun]

I'm looking forward to Alli & Cheli joining the team next year.
Either of them could surpass expectations of whatever dream there is of Paige, Azzi & Carol playing together.
I don't look at seniors or upperclassmen as automatically being superior basketball players.
Players can become better or worse after injuries, or can take a longer than average time to recover, & neither had yet established that they were All-American caliber players prior to getting injured.
On the other hand, a lot of elite rookie players are being shown to be superstars on their teams this year, enough to rival well established players nationally.
NCAA like most every sport is a game of replacement, especially after serious injuries.
I'm still trying to be optimistic that Carol can evetually play again this year, & Azzi may need extra months into next season to more fully recover.
It may take even longer for both of them to recover their peak form.
Just look at Ice as an example.

 

[Bone Dog]

I don't expect Caroline to come back this season -- though I'll certainly cheer if she does -- for precisely the reason @Tonyc cites. If it takes 9 months to recover (which may be optimistic) and Caroline's last traumatic event was this summer, as Geno reports and the problems flying suggest, then March may not be a reasonable or realistic return date. I'll be worried even if she waits until next November, no matter how much I would love to see her play again.

 

[Plebe]

Just to second our current wave of optimism stemming from this happy sequence of games, I notice that Warren Nolan has calculated the latest RPI and has UConn ranked #1. Okay, none of these ranking systems are all that reliable this early, but this at least shows that there must be a not entirely unreasonable way of looking at our season so far that supports optimism.

RPI is over-ranking us right now because it over-values "strength of schedule" (as crudely defined in the RPI formula) without reflecting efficiency or quality of play.

The RPI right now has anomalies that are laughable. UCF in the top 10? Bowling Green ranked ahead of Texas?

The Massey and NET rankings of #8 and #13 are a lot more indicative of how UConn has played relative to the competition.

 

[Aluminny69]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

 

[BRS24]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

Yep. And LSU, ND & VA Tech are the only top 25 teams above them that are playing today. Think we'll have for conference games to see some shuffling.

 

[Tonyc]

Well the teams ahead of UConn could loose and depending on the losses that could move UConn up in the polls . UConns losses are early season against top teams. That too would have significance. Im not counting UConn out of anything. Dont forget Geno is coaching them and he's a pretty good coach.

 

[Plebe]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

Yes, the top 16 overall seeds are hosts for the first two rounds. But the polls don't determine the seedings.

The polls are only for media and fan commentary. But to the extent they matter, teams can and do often move up in the polls by attrition if they keep winning as teams above them lose games. Also, FWIW, Notre Dame is ranked slightly ahead of us in the AP poll at #14.

 

[Cuango]

Just to second our current wave of optimism stemming from this happy sequence of games, I notice that Warren Nolan has calculated the latest RPI and has UConn ranked #1. Okay, none of these ranking systems are all that reliable this early, but this at least shows that there must be a not entirely unreasonable way of looking at our season so far that supports optimism.

And his predicted RPI has us also at #1 and going 26-4, presumably with a loss to SC. Of course, NET puts us at 13, up 4 from last week. I can't believe I'm saying this, but NET seems more reasonable than RPI, which I would never have said this early in the season in past years. At least, RPI must value SoS much more than the NET does, because I can't figure what else would support such a result.

And is it really possible we could go 26-4? That would mean we beat ND, which is the main obstacle besides SC on our schedule. It's certainly possible that we could drop some games to Big East opponents. But if we sweep the conference, then the worst we could do is 25-5. So, yes, 26-4 is possible. And it looks even more possible as long as ND is without Miles, Citron and Prosper. If they manage to return by 1/27, this hurdle looks a lot higher. On the other hand, what are we in this for if not to challenge teams at their best! As for me, I'm hoping for 27-3, because, you know, optimism!

I hope Miles doesn’t push it! She is a great player and there were reports that her knee injury was extremely bad so hopefully she gives herself all the time she needs in order to make sure she is 100% before returning.

 

[Cuango]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

They may move up incrementally as other teams above them lose. Sure, they’re not likely to return to the top ten but it’s entirely possible they could work their way up to 13 or so.

 

[sun]

My optimism about Carol playing again is because there weren't any reports that she had ever lost consciousness.
While she may have been knocked out during practice wasn't reported & she played afterward.
Had she been knocked out it would have indicated a more serious grade of concussion.

 

[DefenseBB]

Just to second our current wave of optimism stemming from this happy sequence of games, I notice that Warren Nolan has calculated the latest RPI and has UConn ranked #1. Okay, none of these ranking systems are all that reliable this early, but this at least shows that there must be a not entirely unreasonable way of looking at our season so far that supports optimism.

And his predicted RPI has us also at #1 and going 26-4, presumably with a loss to SC. Of course, NET puts us at 13, up 4 from last week. I can't believe I'm saying this, but NET seems more reasonable than RPI, which I would never have said this early in the season in past years. At least, RPI must value SoS much more than the NET does, because I can't figure what else would support such a result.

And is it really possible we could go 26-4? That would mean we beat ND, which is the main obstacle besides SC on our schedule. It's certainly possible that we could drop some games to Big East opponents. But if we sweep the conference, then the worst we could do is 25-5. So, yes, 26-4 is possible. And it looks even more possible as long as ND is without Miles, Citron and Prosper. If they manage to return by 1/27, this hurdle looks a lot higher. On the other hand, what are we in this for if not to challenge teams at their best! As for me, I'm hoping for 27-3, because, you know, optimism!

It seems to me you are confusing the RPI as a “ranking model” when all it does is assess the winning percentage of your opponents. The NCAA removed the RPI as a tool for evaluating teams as it was “flawed” and they have mirrored the Men’s evaluation process of using NET which takes into account how you did in the games against how hard the schedule was. You can see the NET rankings as well as Massey or WarrenNolan to get a better feel how UConn is relative to the top teams. Considering that the PAC12 will beat up on each other and that I think Iowa is overrated and the Big 12 is really Texas and everyone else. UConn will be well wishing the Top 16 and hosting the 1st two rounds at Gampel.
While we appreciate your enthusiasm, there are some easy “look up” options you could utilize to learn more and not get the uninitiated riled up.

 

[Bone Dog]

As I look at the current top 16, the following teams look likely to decline, along with a guess about losses they will end up with looking at their schedules:

• USC (9 losses)
• Colorado (9 losses)
• tOSU (5 losses)
• K St (7 losses)
• ND (4+ losses, If Miles Citron and Prosper don't return)
• MD (8 losses)
• VPI (7 losses)

Whether these teams will fall entirely out of the top 16 is another story. But they are likely to take some losses in conference, and combined with SoS considerations, some or all of them are likely to end up below UConn, if we sweep the Big East and don't lose to ND. My guess is barring lots of upsets in conference for the top 16, we'll end up somewhere around 12, maybe higher if we can win decisively against ND, Creighton and Marquette, and make the SC game competitive.

The picture becomes less perilous if you consider the current NET ranking, which has UConn at 13 after yesterday's win. I don't know if this is more useful than the AP or the Coach's poll, though each of these tends to track the NET more or less closely.

 

[Bone Dog]

It seems to me you are confusing the RPI as a “ranking model” when all it does is assess the winning percentage of your opponents. The NCAA removed the RPI as a tool for evaluating teams as it was “flawed” and they have mirrored the Men’s evaluation process of using NET which takes into account how you did in the games against how hard the schedule was. You can see the NET rankings as well as Massey or WarrenNolan to get a better feel how UConn is relative to the top teams. Considering that the PAC12 will beat up on each other and that I think Iowa is overrated and the Big 12 is really Texas and everyone else. UConn will be well wishing the Top 16 and hosting the 1st two rounds at Gampel.
While we appreciate your enthusiasm, there are some easy “look up” options you could utilize to learn more and not get the uninitiated riled up.

You are right about RPI (although it does more than factor in winning percentages -- that's more like ELO), and mistaken about how I am thinking about it. You have a bad habit of erroneously attributing things to me. Don't assume others haven't "looked up" the same things you have. I know RPI is flawed and am not advocating that the NCAA return to it. Nor am I arguing that we should accept its ranking results at face value. But it is informative nonetheless.

I think we had this conversation in great detail last year -- maybe you missed those threads. I did a study of the NET and RPI and ELO a couple years ago [since I teach prob-stat classes from time to time at my college, this is sort of a hobby] merely to see how SoS was factored into them. And none of them is perfect -- what a surprise! -- but their problems are not identical. As I see it, NET can overvalue cupcake schedules early on (because it weighs MoV too much), but as the season continues this flaw tends to be cancelled out. By the end of February, the NET rankings seem 'pretty reasonable'. I might put it this way: NET gives a better late season assessment of each team's record while RPI is better at estimating potential early in a season. To really see this would require doing a 'blind' study of week by week records from a past season and comparing it to end of season results. I haven't had the time to do this, which means my sense of reasonableness is based on 'eyeball' tests and anecdotal evidence. Wouldn't it be funny if such an experiment revealed ELO to be the most useful?

 

[HuskyNan]

RPI is over-ranking us right now because it over-values "strength of schedule" (as crudely defined in the RPI formula) without reflecting efficiency or quality of play.

The RPI right now has anomalies that are laughable. UCF in the top 10? Bowling Green ranked ahead of Texas?

The Massey and NET rankings of #8 and #13 are a lot more indicative of how UConn has played relative to the competition.

Massey ranking is #8. The #1 SOS is a big deal as is the fact that the losses were on the road or at neutral sites. Opponents’ win/loss records is also a big component of the ranking

 

[ctkaiser]

If I look at that chart for another second my head is going to start pounding. It should not be as simple as a top 16 team needs to lose for UConn to move up. Over the course of the season if teams have weak performances but don't lose voters should be taking those kind of things into account. Long way to go. If we can get 90% of what we got from Paige yesterday in every game I like our chances to win a whole lot of games. Expecting the first year players to steadily improve but although I'd like to see Amari give us 5 or 8 minutes a game I'm not expecting her to suddenly be a big impact player.

 

[BRS24]

It would be fascinating to see how Expected Losses are calculated.

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[visitingcock]

They may move up incrementally as other teams above them lose. Sure, they’re not likely to return to the top ten but it’s entirely possible they could work their way up to 13 or so.

With UConn’s SOS, you can lose to SCar and easily be a two seed if you win out.

But, if y’all win out until SCar, I don’t see Geno conceding that in.

Seriously. Just win Huskies. You’ll be fine. Maybe not you fans are used to, but 350 other teams would love ve to be where you are going

 

[Bigboote]

It would be fascinating to see how Expected Losses are calculated.

As far as I've been able to tell (I haven't looked at it in awhile), the expected losses are calculated from the win probabilities for all of the future games. So if the team has an 88% chance of winning, that's 0.12 added to expected losses.

 

[Jewels]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

I suppose some of the current teams in front of us could have some difficulty along the way which gives us an opportunity to move up.

 

[Rowdy831]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

They will move up as teams higher than them lose games too. UConn needs to take care of their own business and the rest will take care of itself. To be a top team they need to beat ND and compete with SC since those games are later on the schedule and the team will presumably be clicking with all the new parts.

 

[HopJim]

In order for UConn to move up from #17 in the polls, they need to beat one of the 16 teams ranked above them. Unfortunately, the only higher ranked team they play is South Carolina, and that is not a likely win. Do the top 16 teams still get to host the first two rounds? Either way, in the sweet sixteen, they will play a highly ranked team, so we will see what happens.

Once we get into league play, many of the teams ahead of UConn will beat up on each other. Assuming Huskies hold serve in their games, other ranked teams losing could have a similar effect on the standings.