I don't see her ever leaving early. Have been talking a lot about it with my nephew, fellow Minnesotan, who's the biggest WNBA fan I know (and is a guy who used to vociferously cheer against the Huskies but is now all-in since Paige arrived on campus). Women's college hoops is simply bigger than the WNBA, culturally, in the media, everywhere. Even if there were no NILs, I still think she'd play four years. But with them it seems to take the financial aspect out of it entirely, leaving the hoops part.
And the hoops part leans heavily to UConn: Wanting to win a national title; and if she wins one in her third year of playing, wanting to repeat; she was a UConn girl from about 8th grade on, it was basically destiny for her to go there, and I think she'd take every chance she had to go for a title; winning a college championship brings more "fame" such as it is than winning a WNBA one. With all that Taurasi, Bird, Maya, Stewie and company have done in the WNBA -- and it's legendary! -- I'd argue they're still all best known for their UConn days, among casual hoops fans. I just can't see her playing two years, one of them hampered by injury, missing out an entire year and then entering the draft. Or even playing in 2023-2024, winning a title or making a tourney run, then entering the draft just so she can play in front of 6,000 people and go for a WNBA title, while always wondering if she might have won one more or even a single one back at UConn, all while playing in front of packed houses at home and as part of a traveling road show.
I guess the one thing that could swing it is if there's such concern over her health that she doesn't want to risk ANY more time in college and use whatever time she has left with those knees in the pros.
But I figure she's planning on a full comeback, to be as good or better than ever, and if that's the case I think she'll be playing for the Huskies for two more years.
(This could easily be Old Takes Exposed one day but we'll see).