Non-Key Tweets

[sdhusky]

Not so sure about that. Today, the contracts are supported by the 90% of people who never watch a second of college sports.

Right. but those 10% would pay a ton to get access. The money is there.... because people are obsessed with sports.

 

[whaler11]

Yes but I would be willing to pay 25-150 per month to watch UConn athletics and their league mates. Not sure at what my walk away is, but I would certainly negotiate the deal with my girlfriend at 200.

The number of people who would pay $25 a month for a single conference is fairly low. The ACC gets hundreds of millions of dollars a year from ESPN.

The contracts are ridiculous because ESPN is collecting $7 a month from tens of millions of people who never turn it on.

If you took the Big 12 or ACC to market today I don't think they would sniff the deals they have currently.

2.6 billion dollars for 13 years for the Big 12? The cordcutting numbers are scary and accelerating - they are very lucky they signed in 2012.

550k more lost in 2q15 Up from ~300k in 2q14. It's no longer a seller's market.

 

[whaler11]

Right. but those 10% would pay a ton to get access. The money is there.... because people are obsessed with sports.

I think the demand is a lot more price sensitive than you think. Look at what happens when Netflix raises prices by a marginal dollar or two.

We shall see - but I expect the Big Ten is about to find it much more difficult than they would have 3 years ago.

 

[TRest]

I think the demand is a lot more price sensitive than you think. Look at what happens when Netflix raises prices by a marginal dollar or two.

We shall see - but I expect the Big Ten is about to find it much more difficult than they would have 3 years ago.

Do you believe the vast majority of cable subscribers will have the interest or the ability to get out of the traditional packages? My kids are already used to streaming and otherwise obtaining content from sources not on cable, and they are not local TV channel consumers. I assume there will always for the next decade at least, be a vast majority of homes that don't want to make any effort to get programming into their homes other than just turning a TV on and changing channels on the box or dish. And are still watching the big 4 networks. Kind of like landline telephones, it's taken me until this year to finally drop mine just because I have felt it was somehow necessary.

 

[whaler11]

Do you believe the vast majority of cable subscribers will have the interest or the ability to get out of the traditional packages? My kids are already used to streaming and otherwise obtaining content from sources not on cable, and they are not local TV channel consumers. I assume there will always for the next decade at least, be a vast majority of homes that don't want to make any effort to get programming into their homes other than just turning a TV on and changing channels on the box or dish. And are still watching the big 4 networks. Kind of like landline telephones, it's taken me until this year to finally drop mine just because I have felt it was somehow necessary.

Like you, I always thought it would take a long time - but it's speeding up fast.

The networks are getting killed. Premier week ratings were down 10% this year against last.

TV viewership for 18-24 is down 20% overall and 24% for males.

When you are someone like ESPN who is already locked into huge deals and you are going to lose a more than a million subs in just the second half of 2015... the entire Disney empire is propped up on them. If they are losing that much revenue that quickly the only solution is to cut expenses. When you don't know what your revenue will look like in 2020 or 2025 - you become a lot less aggressive with where you are locking in long term.

 

[TRest]

Like you, I always thought it would take a long time - but it's speeding up fast.

The networks are getting killed. Premier week ratings were down 10% this year against last.

TV viewership for 18-24 is down 20% overall and 24% for males.

When you are someone like ESPN who is already locked into huge deals and you are going to lose a more than a million subs in just the second half of 2015... the entire Disney empire is propped up on them. If they are losing that much revenue that quickly the only solution is to cut expenses. When you don't know what your revenue will look like in 2020 or 2025 - you become a lot less aggressive with where you are locking in long term.

And yet people still think there is going to be extra money paid for an ACC network.

 

[jostar1]

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 12m12 minutes ago
Let me answer a few questions I got last night in regards to the dinner with "BTM"

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 12m12 minutes ago
First, there wasn't much that was new was there?
BTM doesn't believe Big Ten is discussing expansion...and won't for at least 3-4 years

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 10m10 minutes ago
BTM continues to tell us B10 will hold as is until B12 schools decide to leave heir conference with OU going to SEC and/or UT to ACC.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 9m9 minutes ago
BTM continues to describe OU and KU as B1G top valued targets for next expansion...but SEC is the strong horse to obtain Oklahoma

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 8m8 minutes ago
B10 perception on B12 future movements have not changed much. B10 still believes for reasons stated its BYU-UH-UCF has leading candidates

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 7m7 minutes ago
UCF is not being downgraded because of difficult season. BTM stated ESPN not interested in UCF/B12 relationship. ESPN invested FSU/FL/Miami

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 5m5 minutes ago
In my opinion there was only really 3 pieces of info that caught my attention
1) BTM now has strong reasons to believe OU is SEC bound

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3m3 minutes ago
2) BTM believes B10 Hockey now has slight advantage in obtaining ASU HCKY for reasons given over NCHC

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 4m4 minutes ago
3) If B1G fails to obtain any P5 schools for full membership by 2026 (UVA-VT-OU)
...There is reason to believe KU/UCONN..or...KU/NAVY

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 22s23 seconds ago
BTM discussed the future 2050 Demographic issue the Big Ten still faces. Rutgers & Maryland additions have helped...but not solved.

 

[sdhusky]

I think the demand is a lot more price sensitive than you think. Look at what happens when Netflix raises prices by a marginal dollar or two.

We shall see - but I expect the Big Ten is about to find it much more difficult than they would have 3 years ago.

Post cord cutting, people are going to have an extra $100 to $150 to spend every month.

Give me every UConn game for $75/month plus Amazon plus Netflix and I'm happy.

 

[sdhusky]

I think the demand is a lot more price sensitive than you think. Look at what happens when Netflix raises prices by a marginal dollar or two.

We shall see - but I expect the Big Ten is about to find it much more difficult than they would have 3 years ago.

Do you remember Aussie Rules football? The BiG needs content. UConn hockey and BB is attractive in the next round of CR... I hope.

What would be bigger nationally - UConn-SU or UConn-Mi St on a Jan 24th night?

 

[whaler11]

Do you remember Aussie Rules football? The BiG needs content. UConn hockey and BB is attractive in the next round of CR... I hope.

What would be bigger nationally - UConn-SU or UConn-Mi St on a Jan 24th night?

It would completely depend on how those teams played in any given season. From a national standpoint those games are about equal.

 

[sdhusky]

It would completely depend on how those teams played in any given season. From a national standpoint those games are about equal.

Wrong. One is attractive to the east and one is attracitve to the east and the midwest.

Michigan St is a big deal in a big part of the country... SU is too (in central NY)

 

[whaler11]

Post cord cutting, people are going to have an extra $100 to $150 to spend every month.

Give me every UConn game for $75/month plus Amazon plus Netflix and I'm happy.

Well yes die hard fans will pay. Be careful measuring diehards. Look at television ratings and understand that SVU and Big Bang Theory reruns clobber college sports day in and day out.

 

[whaler11]

Wrong. One is attractive to the east and one is attracitve to the east and the midwest.

Michigan St is a big deal in a big part of the country... SU is too (in central NY)

My answer to your question of what would be bigger nationally is wrong because of your regional take? I think you wildly misunderstand what mid-January means to television ratings.

 

[sdhusky]

My answer to your question of what would be bigger nationally is wrong because of your regional take? I think you wildly misunderstand what mid-January means to television ratings.

Not to rating... to content. You need content all year long.

It's a different paradigm. Like when Cable happened.

 

[whaler11]

Not to rating... to content. You need content all year long.

It's a different paradigm. Like when Cable happened.

Those types of games aren't on the BTN. Those are tier 1 games on ESPN and CBS.

That's the problem with the content argument - the games aren't all that attractive.

 

[sdhusky]

Those types of games aren't on the BTN. Those are tier 1 games on ESPN and CBS.

That's the problem with the content argument - the games aren't all that attractive.

They won't be on those networks forever...

 

[whaler11]

They won't be on those networks forever...

The Big Ten is going to be on ESPN and ABC. Their coaches have already made it clear they will revolt without that exposure.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big Ten is going to be on ESPN and ABC. Their coaches have already made it clear they will revolt without that exposure.

Another argument for fighting for real estate on the cable dial.

I wonder who was the last guy to open a beeper store.

 

[whaler11]

Another argument for fighting for real estate on the cable dial.

I wonder who was the last guy to open a beeper store.

So what do you propose? Schools take their conference direct to the streaming market and lose 50%+ of their revenue year 1?

Solving the issue is so easy.... yet nobody has done it.

 

[MemphisBlues]

Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV By the way a gentleman who claims connections to Memphis contacted me and said my info on Memphis & the Big 12 is accurate.

　
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV @Frogman87 Big 12 likes Memphis. Memphis is a top TV market for football viewing. Likes the commitment to facilities and buzz around program

 

[MemphisBlues]

Since I know you guys also like "the Dude."

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

A guy tweets things that he claims to be true about conference realignment, person #2, a "source" within said school, who would receive lifeboat and massive program upgrade in person #1's scenario, agrees with person #1's information. Thus, person #1 feels it fit to tweet that person #2 agrees with person #1's information. This is how groupthink and confirmation bias forms.

 

[don356]

A pr campaign is a pr campaign as it relates to memphis. The butts in the seats do not lie. That Thursday night game last week against Cincy looked to be about half full, maybe 25 to 30k for the "biggest" game ever. I applaud their effort to spruce things up, but having been down to the basketball tourney the downtown resembled a ghost town. However, from a WV perspective, it may as well be the big apple.

 

[NYUConn]

A pr campaign is a pr campaign as it relates to memphis. The butts in the seats do not lie. That Thursday night game last week against Cincy looked to be about half full, maybe 25 to 30k for the "biggest" game ever. I applaud their effort to spruce things up, but having been down to the basketball tourney the downtown resembled a ghost town. However, from a WV perspective, it may as well be the big apple.

In fairness the attendance was reported at 45,000 http://espn.go.com/college-football/game?gameId=400764870

Looked small because the Liberty Bowl is a massive stadium. 61,000.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

In fairness the attendance was reported at 45,000 http://espn.go.com/college-football/game?gameId=400764870

Looked small because the Liberty Bowl is a massive stadium. 61,000.

25-30 was too low, but i don't buy 45
either. They had tarps over full sections at the top behind each end zone.

 

[NYUConn]

25-30 was too low, but i don't buy 45
either. They had tarps over full sections at the top behind each end zone.

I'm just going on what ESPN had in their box score. Again, 45K in a 61K stadium is only 73% full so it makes sense what you are both saying.

 

[Dooley]

Football:
Memphis -
All-time record 455–504–33 (.475)
Postseason bowl record 4–3 (.571)

UConn -
All-time record 502–541–38 (.482)
Postseason bowl record 3–2 (.600)

Everything else: hoops, academics, markets, Olympic sports, endowment, student/alumni size, territorial flagship, etc is a very solid lean to UConn.

Yet, Memphis is about to get their escape ticket punched ahead of us because they won a few football games last season, has a larger capacity football stadium, and would bring TN football recruiting?? I have a hard time believing this one. If the FedEx dude buys their way into the B12, that's one thing. But I refuse to believe that Memphis brings any P5 conference any value whatsoever. TN recruiting??? The B12 could invite MTSU and get the same exposure.

Again, if Memphis gets into a P5 conference before we do, I think our entire state will go into a meltdown. UConn leadership should have a PR at the ready to try to keep this region from going full riot. That is an INCREDIBLY tough sell.

 

[pepband99]

Football:
Memphis -
All-time record 455–504–33 (.475)
Postseason bowl record 4–3 (.571)

UConn -
All-time record 502–541–38 (.482)
Postseason bowl record 3–2 (.600)

Everything else: hoops, academics, markets, Olympic sports, endowment, student/alumni size, territorial flagship, etc is a very solid lean to UConn.

Yet, Memphis is about to get their escape ticket punched ahead of us because they won a few football games last season, has a larger capacity football stadium, and would bring TN football recruiting?? I have a hard time believing this one. If the FedEx dude buys their way into the B12, that's one thing. But I refuse to believe that Memphis brings any P5 conference any value whatsoever. TN recruiting??? The B12 could invite MTSU and get the same exposure.

Again, if Memphis gets into a P5 conference before we do, I think our entire state will go into a meltdown. UConn leadership should have a PR at the ready to try to keep this region from going full riot. That is an INCREDIBLY tough sell.

You know, except the fact that they're even remotely geographically congruent. This isn't picking a kickball team.

 

[FDNY99]

Football:
Memphis -
All-time record 455–504–33 (.475)
Postseason bowl record 4–3 (.571)

UConn -
All-time record 502–541–38 (.482)
Postseason bowl record 3–2 (.600)

Everything else: hoops, academics, markets, Olympic sports, endowment, student/alumni size, territorial flagship, etc is a very solid lean to UConn.

Yet, Memphis is about to get their escape ticket punched ahead of us because they won a few football games last season, has a larger capacity football stadium, and would bring TN football recruiting?? I have a hard time believing this one. If the FedEx dude buys their way into the B12, that's one thing. But I refuse to believe that Memphis brings any P5 conference any value whatsoever. TN recruiting??? The B12 could invite MTSU and get the same exposure.

Again, if Memphis gets into a P5 conference before we do, I think our entire state will go into a meltdown. UConn leadership should have a PR at the ready to try to keep this region from going full riot. That is an INCREDIBLY tough sell.

They will be crawling back to the AAC with the rest of the B-12 when UT, OU, WVU (possibly) and Kansas leave for greener pastures.

 

[Kolumbo]

They will be crawling back to the AAC with the rest of the B-12 when UT, OU, WVU (possibly) and Kansas leave for greener pastures.

We all know how CR works. Big 12 backfills...AAC, C-USA, MWC backfill...It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Programs aren't lost or made, they are simply transferred from one perception to another.