Non-Key Tweets | Page 118 | The Boneyard

Non-Key Tweets

Marty Jackson said:
this is it folks... this is the one we've known is coming all along.
sit back, relax, and wait for the Big 12 to come calling.

Oh, and you might want to strap on that steel reinforced cup because this one is gonna hit square in the nuts and is gonna hurt like a mother. Not sure how it's gonna happen, but we're all aware of the Uconn Law of CR.
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Memphis would be the biggest sack kicker for me. So I'm guessing their invite is already in the mail along with Temple.
 
Questions for the B12:
1. How much does geographic proximity matter? (= 1 Cincy, 2 BYU, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
2. How much do football recruiting grounds matter? (= 1 UCF, 2 Cincy, UPDATE 3 UConn, 4 BYU)
3. How much do TV markets matter? (=1 UConn, 2a/b UCF, BYU, 4 Cincy)
4. How much does football quality matter? (1a/b BYU, Cincy, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
5. How much does basketball matter? (1 UConn, 2a/b Cincy, BYU, 4 UCF)

We win only on 3 and 5.

But since money is the crucial issue, #3 might trump everything else.

If they go to 14 schools, we must be in.

But if they go to 14, the conference is a ticking time bomb that explodes when the TV deal / GoR expires. Can't see such a far-flung uncohesive group sticking together once the B1G, SEC, Pac, and ACC can launch a bidding war for the best properties.
 
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pj said:
Questions for the B12:
1. How much does geographic proximity matter? (= 1 Cincy, 2 BYU, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
2. How much do football recruiting grounds matter? (= 1 UCF, 2 Cincy, 3 BYU, 4 UConn)
3. How much do TV markets matter? (=1 UConn, 2a/b UCF, BYU, 4 Cincy)
4. How much does football quality matter? (1a/b/c BYU, Cincy, UCF, 4 UConn)
5. How much does basketball matter? (1 UConn, 2a/b Cincy, BYU, 4 UCF)

We win only on 3 and 5.

But since money is the crucial issue, #3 might trump everything else.
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Utah does not have great recruiting, but BYU draws a lot from Hawaii and the west coast. Mormons everywhere, obviously. They recruit better than UConn, but the Mountain West in general is in the last quartile of recruits per capita, ahead of only New England (with Connecticut being the only state in NE alongside places like Iowa or Utah). Heck, Wisconsin doesn't do that well for football either.
 
upstater said:
Utah does not have great recruiting, but BYU draws a lot from Hawaii and the west coast. Mormons everywhere, obviously. They recruit better than UConn, but the Mountain West in general is in the last quartile of recruits per capita, ahead of only New England (with Connecticut being the only state in NE alongside places like Iowa or Utah). Heck, Wisconsin doesn't do that well for football either.
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Upon reflection BYU should be 4th. I was thinking that BYU recruits well among Mormons and would bring more recruits into the conference ... but if schools care about how many recruits a school brings into the B12's existing schools, then BYU obviously doesn't help bring Mormons to Oklahoma or Texas based on the chance of playing against BYU. Whereas UCF can bring Florida recruits to Oklahoma and Texas based on the chance to play games near home. (Updated the original post to swap UConn and BYU.)
 
pj said:
Questions for the B12:
1. How much does geographic proximity matter? (= 1 Cincy, 2 BYU, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
2. How much do football recruiting grounds matter? (= 1 UCF, 2 Cincy, 3 BYU, 4 UConn)
3. How much do TV markets matter? (=1 UConn, 2a/b UCF, BYU, 4 Cincy)
4. How much does football quality matter? (1a/b BYU, Cincy, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
5. How much does basketball matter? (1 UConn, 2a/b Cincy, BYU, 4 UCF)

We win only on 3 and 5.

But since money is the crucial issue, #3 might trump everything else.

If they go to 14 schools, we must be in.

But if they go to 14, the conference is a ticking time bomb that explodes when the TV deal / GoR expires. Can't see such a far-flung uncohesive group sticking together once the B1G, SEC, Pac, and ACC can launch a bidding war for the best properties.
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If the B12 listens to FOX and makes their expansion list based on TV sets / money, and not based on 2014 football W/L record, then UCONN has to be near the top of that list.
 
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Dooley said:
If the B12 listens to FOX and makes their expansion list based on TV sets / money, and not based on 2014 football W/L record, then UCONN has to be near the top of that list.
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I think it's likely Fox wants UConn. Then the question is what does ESPN want. Why should ESPN give money to the B12 to take UConn and UCF, which it now owns 100%, and give them 50% to Fox, helping Fox get East Coast viewers? I can't see ESPN supporting that unless the state of Connecticut and the B12 are somehow able to pressure them.

Which in turn raises the question of what the B12 wants. If they want their conference to stick together long-term, I doubt they'd want a larger multi-time-zone non-culturally-linked monstrosity. So why would they push ESPN hard on this?

B12 expansion still seems unlikely to me but CR in general has had a lot of surprising twists and turns.
 
pj said:
I think it's likely Fox wants UConn. Then the question is what does ESPN want. Why should ESPN give money to the B12 to take UConn and UCF, which it now owns 100%, and give them 50% to Fox, helping Fox get East Coast viewers? I can't see ESPN supporting that unless the state of Connecticut and the B12 are somehow able to pressure them.

Which in turn raises the question of what the B12 wants. If they want their conference to stick together long-term, I doubt they'd want a larger multi-time-zone non-culturally-linked monstrosity. So why would they push ESPN hard on this?

B12 expansion still seems unlikely to me but CR in general has had a lot of surprising twists and turns.
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I agree with you. I would think that the State would try to mediate with ESPiN should they play hardball and refuse to turn over UCONN's dirt cheap rights to FOX. Maybe along the lines of even more tax incentives or land to expand their campus.
 
pj said:
I think it's likely Fox wants UConn. Then the question is what does ESPN want. Why should ESPN give money to the B12 to take UConn and UCF, which it now owns 100%, and give them 50% to Fox, helping Fox get East Coast viewers? I can't see ESPN supporting that unless the state of Connecticut and the B12 are somehow able to pressure them.

Which in turn raises the question of what the B12 wants. If they want their conference to stick together long-term, I doubt they'd want a larger multi-time-zone non-culturally-linked monstrosity. So why would they push ESPN hard on this?

B12 expansion still seems unlikely to me but CR in general has had a lot of surprising twists and turns.
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ESPN can hardly care about what it owns with the AAC. And it has contract provisions to cut the contract in the event someone leaves. The question then becomes for ESPN, if the B12 MUST add schools, would ESPN rather pay a per school $$ amount with good return (UConn) or one with kinda bad return (Memphis).

I see this as being in UConn's favor. The only thing working against it is UConn women's basketball. ESPN is getting an absolute freebie there.
 
Mr. Conehead said:
That still points to BYU (Mountain) and Cincinati (Eastern) time zones, adds to the XII's home time zone (Central), except for WVU, which is Eastern.
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The Mountain Time Zone is not desirable to TV networks, frankly, it's a death trap for them in terms of eyeballs and advertising $. BYU's location is not a strength of its profile, and in fact, may be a detractor. TV valuation of BYU would rely heavily on anticipated viewership in the EST and PST zones.

Not to mention from a geography perspective, BYU's closest conference opponent would be nearly 900 miles away, but that didn't stop the B12 the first time with WVU.
 
this one won't hurt a bit. The Big 12 could invite Temple for all I care. Big 12 is not inviting UCONN over much better football schools. Period. The only place UCONN to the Big 12 is being discussed is on this board.
 
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upstater said:
ESPN can hardly care about what it owns with the AAC. And it has contract provisions to cut the contract in the event someone leaves. The question then becomes for ESPN, if the B12 MUST add schools, would ESPN rather pay a per school $$ amount with good return (UConn) or one with kinda bad return (Memphis).

I see this as being in UConn's favor. The only thing working against it is UConn women's basketball. ESPN is getting an absolute freebie there.
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If the B12 MUST add schools, ESPN can tell them that they need to pay for it (accepting a drop in per-school revenue). ESPN doesn't have to pay for it. There is no circumstance under which they will need to pay for Memphis. If Memphis is added, it is because Fred Smith is paying for them.

The AAC contract is expiring soon so ESPN could view UConn and UCF and Cincy as free agents. So you have a valid point that ESPN's ownership of the AAC may not factor. But their hostility to Fox may matter. ESPN may want to reserve UConn and potentially for others for the ACC. So it might want to block B12 expansion.
 
pj said:
If the B12 MUST add schools, ESPN can tell them that they need to pay for it (accepting a drop in per-school revenue). ESPN doesn't have to pay for it. There is no circumstance under which they will need to pay for Memphis. If Memphis is added, it is because Fred Smith is paying for them.

The AAC contract is expiring soon so ESPN could view UConn and UCF and Cincy as free agents. So you have a valid point that ESPN's ownership of the AAC may not factor. But their hostility to Fox may matter. ESPN may want to reserve UConn and potentially for others for the ACC. So it might want to block B12 expansion.
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I discount the Fred Smith thing because corporations can change course on a tack. Say the guy dies. Then what? The B12 is then stuck feeding Memphis.

Your last point is definitely huge, how does ESPN deal with Fox. I hadn't considered that.
 
I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the Fred Smith storyline. I know that schools have been resurrected thanks to big money donors ( Oregon, Oklahoma State, Maryland), but this would be an absolute epic resurrection if a booster can get singlehandedly get his school into a Power conference without an ounce of merit (from the school's CR profile). The other donors gave their money directly to the school. Smith would be giving his money to a conference to help a school? Something about that seems unethical to me, but then again, we are talking about the NCAA.
 
Dooley said:
I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the Fred Smith storyline. I know that schools have been resurrected thanks to big money donors ( Oregon, Oklahoma State, Maryland), but this would be an absolute epic resurrection if a booster can get singlehandedly get his school into a Power conference without an ounce of merit (from the school's CR profile). The other donors gave their money directly to the school. Smith would be giving his money to a conference to help a school? Something about that seems unethical to me, but then again, we are talking about the NCAA.
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Are you insinuating that Cincy's CR profile is worse than UCONN's? $1.2 billion endowment. 44k students. Borders B1G and SEC country. Cincy is probably the most likely expansion candidate out there.
 
UCONN13KC said:
Are you insinuating that Cincy's CR profile is worse than UCONN's? $1.2 billion endowment. 44k students. Borders B1G and SEC country. Cincy is probably the most likely expansion candidate out there.
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No. I'm insinuating...no, I am flat-out shouting from every single rooftop!, that Memphis' CR profile is MUCH worse than UCONN's. Fred Smith is FedEx CEO and Memphis alum...not Cincinnati.
 
I don't believe that the B12 is going to expand because Baylor & TCU were excluded from Year 1 of the playoffs. The conference only lost $6MM by not having a playoff representative so it's not like they left $20+MM on the table. Yes there is money in a CCG but they already made their decision on that.

Until an 11-1 Texas or Oklahoma get passed over my guess is they stay at 10. This lets UT keep the LHN & everyone else gets to make their own Tier 3 deals
 
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Dooley said:
No. I'm insinuating...no, I am flat-out shouting from every single rooftop!, that Memphis' CR profile is MUCH worse than UCONN's. Fred Smith is FedEx CEO and Memphis alum...not Cincinnati.
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Sorry...my bad. I was thinking about Cincy....I agree. But you know what they say, location location location.
 
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UCONN13KC said:
Are you insinuating that Cincy's CR profile is worse than UCONN's? $1.2 billion endowment. 44k students. Borders B1G and SEC country. Cincy is probably the most likely expansion candidate out there.
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B1G and SEC aren't adding Cincy.

I like UConn's profile better. Better academics, better basketball, though worse football.

While the 3 factors above can be compare, UConn trumps Cincy on market.

That being said, Cincy beats UConn in terms of geography when it comes to the B12, and that alone sends it over the top.
 
upstater said:
B1G and SEC aren't adding Cincy.

I like UConn's profile better. Better academics, better basketball, though worse football.

While the 3 factors above can be compare, UConn trumps Cincy on market.

That being said, Cincy beats UConn in terms of geography when it comes to the B12, and that alone sends it over the top.
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Indiana, Illinois, Michigan have two schools each in the B1G while Ohio only has one. Given that the B1G won't add Cincy, that makes Cincy an ideal add for the Big 12. 2nd largest state u. in the great state of Ohio. CR makes me sick. there are so many schools in P5 conferences which are better fits for other conferences. Senseless.
 
UCONN13KC said:
Indiana, Illinois, Michigan have two schools each in the B1G while Ohio only has one. Given that the B1G won't add Cincy, that makes Cincy an ideal add for the Big 12. 2nd largest state u. in the great state of Ohio. CR makes me sick. there are so many schools in P5 conferences which are better fits for other conferences. Senseless.
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OSU has over 50k students. You could fit all the students at Purdue and Indiana onto OSU's campus. As for Illinois, we're talking about Northwestern as a private, pretty small.

Cincy simply hasn't penetrated the rest of the state.
 
upstater said:
I discount the Fred Smith thing because corporations can change course on a tack. Say the guy dies. Then what? The B12 is then stuck feeding Memphis.
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Yes. The way Fred Smith matters is if the major B12 schools are planning to go their own ways upon the expiration of the current contract. E.g. to B1G, SEC, or Pac. Then if Fred Smith pays them for 10 years, Memphis can have a temporary home in the B12. It gives Memphis a chance to build its profile and fight for a spot in the next round of musical chairs. Fred Smith or Fedex only make a temporary (10 year) commitment. The B12 powers don't care that they're associated with Memphis because it's only temporary and they're getting paid for the rental.
 
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Dooley said:
Fred Smith is FedEx CEO and Memphis alum...not Cincinnati.
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Sorry Dooley, I know doesn't really matter and your point is still valid, but just wanted to clarify that Fred is a Yale alum; he's just a Memphis resident and the school's biggest donor.
 
Are we that desperate to throw ourselves at a possible sinking ship in the Big 12? Just asking...
 
Limbo Land said:
Are we that desperate to throw ourselves at a possible sinking ship in the Big 12? Just asking...
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Yes. $20M/yr trumps $2M/yr, by my math. If the B12 sinks, we will have bought ourselves some time in a P5 conference to improve our CR profile. We may even be AAU by then and showed B1G folks that we can compete in football at a high level (again).
 
Limbo Land said:
Are we that desperate to throw ourselves at a possible sinking ship in the Big 12? Just asking...
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If you are calling the B12 a sinking ship what the hell is the AAC? I think we all would prefer the B1G or ACC but any port in the storm will do. Perhaps if word gets out the B12 has been visiting it will spur ACC/B1G activity....

On a completely separate note I went for lunch in East Hartfod and saw Bob Bowlsby eating lunch at Margarita's. Any idea why he would be in town?
 
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