Nika now most important player

[eebmg]

The need for Nika's offensive improvement, better ball security and better control defensively (less fouling) was very apparent within the first 10 games of her Freshman year. It should not take until her Junior year and a second major injury to Paige for Nika to come to the realization that those needs for improvement are critical to UCONN team success. This is also not the UCONN WBB way. Being surrounded by superior scorers should not have been used as an excuse because that has always been the case for any Non-starter at UCONN. That reality (being with superior scorers) should have been used by Nika as a challenge to elevate her individual game to be on par with her teammates. This would have eliminated much of the severe disrespect that UCONN opponents are showing to Nika defensively by allowing her to shoot wide open uncontested shots, not defending essential spots on the floor such as the rim and playing Nika strictly to pass all while doubling down on other players on the floor.

A bit harsh imo. It is clear that Nika's mindset coming to UConn was as a facilitator and to provide an energy spark on the defensive end and Geno was fine with that. To even want to be a part of UConn, you need to be pretty unselfish but I think Nika stands out in that category and may not have some of the same motivations others like Paige and Azzi have to be WNBA and Olympic stars. I think her goal was to be the best version of herself and then play international ball.

From what I recall, Geno sits players down and asks them what they want to accomplish at Storrs and I can visualize Nika saying she wants to be the energy spark and help in any way to facilitate the team to NC's while Paige may have said I want 4 NC's and be the best player ever

I am sure once Nika saw what Paige can do freshman year, that just reinforced her desire to be more of a background / glue player and with Paige and Azzi ready to become this generations Sue and Diana, she (and Geno) probably felt quite comfortable in her role.

And even then, Nika did improve her offensive game. She became a good 3pt shooter (and perhaps more under control on both ends) and even then, teams would give her room because others were still better. No shame

Only now with injuries and depth issues so apparent does Nika see how important it is for her to be a major offensive threat and I am sure she is digging hard this summer to do what she can in spite of an extremely deferential mindset that has to be reprogrammed and it takes alot of time and effort.

 

[BobbyJ]

Lol. And Muhl’s own chaos, also with injury and adjusting to our style of basketball, is not a factor in her performance?

I get it. If UConn played truly positionless basketball across all five positions, Muhl would not be one of the five starters, and would not even be one of the five most important players, let alone most important player.

But PG is a specialized role even within the UConn system, which involves directing the offense with a minimum of mistakes. Muhl has been and will continue to be trained specifically for that role. No one else besides Bueckers was being trained for that, and if Bueckers was here this year, or with Arnold next year, you can bet Fudd would not be groomed for it.

supI included your quote because in your objection to Muhl not being one of the most important you ported that with saying Muhl is not a better passer than Fudd. If true, the proof lies in your faith in Fudd’s abilities and not on what has been actually demonstrated. Making excuses for her ”chaos” does not suffice as real evidence in support of what you believe.

So once again, it may be that Muhl plays a lesser role this year while Fudd handles a significant part of the PG duties, but if that happens that is not good news for UConn. Any program would want to first and foremost to groom and keep giving experience to Fudd as a SG or playing “positionless,” with some amount of confidence she will be the best in the country in that role, allowed to blossom that way by continuing to use a person specifically groomed for PG in that position. If they can’t do that and have to use Fudd or anyone else in the PG role, destined to only be a temporary fix, that has both short term and long term consequences for the program.

1st bolded: I agree with you here.
2nd bolded: I don't have any objection to Muhl being one of the most important, I hope they all improve and compete to be the most important. All I'm saying is that up to this point I have not seen that potential. As my last sentence in post #51 implies, she'll be tested and have her opportunity to show if she can be that and we'll see what she does with that.

 

[MooseJaw]

Exactly. Auriemma would've been all over this at that point and that's why I can't believe this recent challenge to her was his first. Maybe that's why he made it public. Like Ono with her offense, I don't understand how some players at this level of BB can be so unaware of the need to constantly upgrade their games. Even just watching all the pro and college games that they do and seeing what the best players are able to do should cause a light to come on for them.

To become that player, able to add more offensive firepower Nika needs to shed her hesitancy to shoot the rock. My guess is that she will make a number of clunkers and that's OK. When more shots find the mark her confidence in her shot will grow. She has the tools to be a well-rounded point guard. We will go through the growing process with her, some games may not be pretty, however as the season progresses, I believe Nika will be able to make us smile more and more.

 

[#12in21]

The need for Nika's offensive improvement, better ball security and better control defensively (less fouling) was very apparent within the first 10 games of her Freshman year. It should not take until her Junior year and a second major injury to Paige for Nika to come to the realization that those needs for improvement are critical to UCONN team success. This is also not the UCONN WBB way. Being surrounded by superior scorers should not have been used as an excuse because that has always been the case for any Non-starter at UCONN. That reality (being with superior scorers) should have been used by Nika as a challenge to elevate her individual game to be on par with her teammates. This would have eliminated much of the severe disrespect that UCONN opponents are showing to Nika defensively by allowing her to shoot wide open uncontested shots, not defending essential spots on the floor such as the rim and playing Nika strictly to pass all while doubling down on other players on the floor. Nika's past mindset is really

I agree with eebmg assessment that this is a bit harsh, but Nika's past mindset really doesn't address what we can expect this season. Do you believe that she, as she has said, see's the need to adjust her game as Geno has asked her to ? Do you believe she has been working on that this summer and will do so come fall ? What role do you see her playing on the team this season?

I would answer, yes I believe she heard Geno and will show those adjustments in her game come fall and that she will be the starting point guard and log the most minutes at that position of any members of the team.

 

[SJF]

MIP is Patterson. In most games she will be the strongest and most athletic player on the floor. She needs to learn the system quickly and be able to learn to be a scorer.

 

[Bone Dog]

I don’t think @CocoHusky was too harsh. That was the simple truth, that Nika has taken too long to develop her offense. I doubt it’s that she lacks the ability or the drive. I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t just her stubbornness. This is what makes her awesome on D, and it may also be what makes her a difficult student.

Remember that video where she was mic’d up in practice? She muttered about how Geno was “the smartest man in the world.” I’m sure she was not being sarcastic, that she respects him as a coach. But a fiery personality like hers is also going to have an edge on comments like that.

If she turns her fire onto this new challenge, I think she can do it. She’ll need to do basic things better. For example, can she finish a layup with either hand? Can she do it equally well from either side? The summer may have been spent just working on little skills like this.

 

[Bone Dog]

Also, in case there’s still some doubt about this, Azzi is absolutely a better, more intuitive passer than Nika. She hasn’t been called on to play the point much, so we haven’t see a whole lot of this side of her game. She is also a model of the primary fact we’ve all been wrestling with this summer, namely that a guard who is a scoring threat off the dribble simply gets better opportunities to pass. If we end up playing Azzi at the point for 20min/g it will be obvious to everyone. I just hope we don’t have to do that, since she is probably more valuable to us off the ball.

 

[CocoHusky]

I agree with eebmg assessment that this is a bit harsh, but Nika's past mindset really doesn't address what we can expect this season. Do you believe that she, as she has said, see's the need to adjust her game as Geno has asked her to ? Do you believe she has been working on that this summer and will do so come fall ? What role do you see her playing on the team this season?

I would answer, yes I believe she heard Geno and will show those adjustments in her game come fall and that she will be the starting point guard and log the most minutes at that position of any members of the team.

Let's just make sure you and @eebmg are not thinking my assessment was harsh because this is Nika we are talking about. As @BobbyJ pointed I/we made very similar assessments of ONO regarding the need for offensive improvement, her propensity to disappear in big games and get in foul trouble beginning when ONO was a freshman. On the current roster we have also made the same exact assessment of Aubrey Griffin's need to gain a better understanding of the UCONN offense and her inability to develop a a deep ball. In the aftermath of the Arizona we also accessed that Paige need to get stronger so as to be able to better handle contact.
Geno's method is not to go public as a first resort with criticism of his players. I'm fairly certain he's had the discussion with Nika privately before the article you quoted.

 

[diggerfoot]

1st bolded: I agree with you here.
2nd bolded: I don't have any objection to Muhl being one of the most important, I hope they all improve and compete to be the most important. All I'm saying is that up to this point I have not seen that potential. As my last sentence in post #51 implies, she'll be tested and have her opportunity to show if she can be that and we'll see what she does with that.

If you are saying you do not see the potential for Muhl to be one of the five best overall players, then we are in agreement. But considering the system she does not need to be, she only needs to be the best at playing PG and do a capable job of it. If you don’t see potential for that, then we disagree.

If the basis for your disagreement is because of ballhandling, then the stats do not support you, Fudd actually had more turnovers than assists, and Duscharme was worse than Fudd. So unless you think Edwards will be tagged for the point, or that Muhl can’t improve even further on her 1.41 A/T ratio, there is not much in tangible evidence that others show more potential for playing PG than Muhl.

If the basis is because of Muhl’s shooting, then I agree she will never shoot as well as Fudd, but still could be good enough. Muhl has been one of our better three point shooters in the second half of both her seasons. It’s not farfetched to think she has potential to sustain near 40% three point shooting for a whole season. If you deny that as even a potential, then I think you are being overly pessimistic about Muhl.

 

[diggerfoot]

Also, in case there’s still some doubt about this, Azzi is absolutely a better, more intuitive passer than Nika. She hasn’t been called on to play the point much, so we haven’t see a whole lot of this side of her game. She is also a model of the primary fact we’ve all been wrestling with this summer, namely that a guard who is a scoring threat off the dribble simply gets better opportunities to pass. If we end up playing Azzi at the point for 20min/g it will be obvious to everyone. I just hope we don’t have to do that, since she is probably more valuable to us off the ball.

Um, what is the tangible evidence that Fudd is a more intuitive passer, can you provide any data to support that? Because I can provide data to refute that.

 

[BobbyJ]

If you are saying you do not see the potential for Muhl to be one of the five best overall players, then we are in agreement. But considering the system she does not need to be, she only needs to be the best at playing PG and do a capable job of it. If you don’t see potential for that, then we disagree.

If the basis for your disagreement is because of ballhandling, then the stats do not support you, Fudd actually had more turnovers than assists, and Duscharme was worse than Fudd. So unless you think Edwards will be tagged for the point, or that Muhl can’t improve even further on her 1.41 A/T ratio, there is not much in tangible evidence that others show more potential for playing PG than Muhl.

If the basis is because of Muhl’s shooting, then I agree she will never shoot as well as Fudd, but still could be good enough. Muhl has been one of our better three point shooters in the second half of both her seasons. It’s not farfetched to think she has potential to sustain near 40% three point shooting for a whole season. If you deny that as even a potential, then I think you are being overly pessimistic about Muhl.

I agree, I don’t see the potential for Muhl to be one of the 5 best players nor, as the thread title says, the most important player. As for PG, I agree that having to use Fudd there wouldn’t be the best use of her talents. For Muhl, everything hinges on her improvement. It would have to be considerable to help this team make up the 20+ ppg they lose from Bueckers. If she comes back basically the same player and Auriemma chooses to use her 30 mpg, I think they’ll struggle to get through the E8 if they get there. I think they need a more than capable PG to go further and they may just not have one on the roster. That’s why we have to wait and see what she’s got.

 

[oldhusky]

I know the focus in this discussion has largely centered on who would be better at PG, Azzi or Nika. But don't most of us assume Azzi and Caroline will start and get major minutes? I consider that pretty much of a given, so the real decision is between Nika and Lou for that last starting position. The winner probably winds up third in guard minutes behind Azzi and Caroline and the loser winds up fourth in minutes.

The other difference is if Lou starts, Azzi as the starting point guard gets most of her minutes at that position, but if Nika starts Azzi plays most of the time at her more natural SG position.

 

[#12in21]

Let's just make sure you a......

I felt it was a bit harsh because there was no suggestion in your post that Nika's game has adapted in any positive way since what she showed in her first ten games. I think she has made progress in several areas over her two years at Uconn. and would argue that her coaches and teammates would agree. The scoring piece in preparing for next season seems to be where she has indicated a more recent change in her own mindset.

So, no my comment was not because it was Nika. I have shown no attempt disguising the fact that I am a fan of hers but I have also pointed out areas where I think she needs improvement. So, hopefully that being addressed, I am curious as to your responses to my questions to you. Do you believe that she, as she has said, see's the need to adjust her game as Geno has asked her to ? Do you believe she has been working on that this summer and will do so come fall ? What role do you see her playing on the team this season?

 

[Bone Dog]

@12in21, I’m totally a fan of Nika’s. I love her particular brand of mayhem. As an example, consider the second half of the Tennessee game. She’s an awesome situational player.

The problem arises when injuries require her to be more than that. I think she can change her game enough to be the primary point guard, even in the tournament. This is something she has yet to achieve, as @CocoHusky has eloquently shown. I have a lot of confidence in her, perhaps more than most. But as always, per my mantra, “only time will tell.”

 

[Bone Dog]

Um, what is the tangible evidence that Fudd is a more intuitive passer, can you provide any data to support that? Because I can provide data to refute that.

The tangible evidence is our eyes. Data sets are not tangible, they are abstract, especially when the data set is small as in this case. But us BYers are astute observers of the game and know how to trust what we see. Trying to win, or even start a debate with data is like the guy who says of the kid who never takes 3 pt shots, “She hasn’t missed a single one.”

 

[diggerfoot]

The tangible evidence is our eyes. Data sets are not tangible, they are abstract, especially when the data set is small as in this case. But us BYers are astute observers of the game and know how to trust what we see. Trying to win, or even start a debate with data is like the guy who says of the kid who never takes 3 pt shots, “She hasn’t missed a single one.”

Lol. I’ll include @BobbyJ , @CocoHusky , and @TeamFirst! in this response and make it my last one.

First, I agree that the “eye test” can uncover things that stats do not. I also know enough about @BobbyJ and @CocoHusky to know they have more experienced eyes than me. Finally, as one who has had to both use and fault stats in my career, I have a pretty good idea when they are being abused.

So, for example, I never pointed at Fudd’s low assist totals as an argument against her. If I did, then the rationale you used that she was not being used in that manner, would legitimately have shot me down.

But I used A/T comparisons instead. While there is good reason to expect post players to have lower numbers than perimeter players, that reason does not apply between perimeter players. There were times in our recent past when Faris and Samuelson were our leading A/T players, well over 2.0, but neither were point guards.

As for the eye tests, while I concede that @BobbyJ and others have better “eyes,” I call BS on witnessing how Fudd and Muhl played this past year and claiming there was an obvious difference in their intuitive passing. Sorry, don’t buy it. Both thread the needle at times, both threw it away. To the extent that one is better than the other by “eye test,” it is a subtle difference at best.

And the same goes for using the “eye test” to compare Fudd’s AAU ball with Muhl’s European ball. I saw some pretty fine passing from both, and would claim BS to claims of obvious differences in both.

So that leaves comparing Fudd’s A/T stats from AAU to Muhl’s from European. I don’t have the foggiest idea what those numbers are, and I’m not inclined to look them up. If Fudd’s are noticeably better, than that raises the question of why they dropped last season. Admittedly it also leaves hope that it could improve substantially with further adjustment.

But this also leads to my final point on the matter. Muhl also had a lot of fine drives to the basket in European ball, but in her early days at UConn she drove to the basket a number of times and missed quite badly. Mind you she was able to get by defenders, that was not the problem, but when you drive for a lay up and toss an air ball that can mess with your mind, kind of the “Chuck Knoblauch” effect. So she stopped driving and, for some mysterious reason, thought her best course of action was always to get the ball to Bueckers.

It’s possible that Muhl can overcome this block and drive to the basket as she did in European ball. It’s possible that Fudd can overcome whatever created her inferior A/T numbers, if they were so much better during AAU ball. It would be consistent for a fan to hope for both to happen, in which case Muhl still should get the nod for PG, because that would work best for the system.

Thinking that giving Fudd a few months of training for the nuances of PG prepares her as well as six years of training for Muhl does not have much basis in either stats or eye tests.

 

[Bone Dog]

I agree that the “eye test” can uncover things that stats do not. I also know enough about @BobbyJ and @CocoHusky to know they have more experienced eyes than me. Finally, as one who has had to both use and fault stats in my career, I have a pretty good idea when they are being abused.

Nice try. You concede that stats can be abused to win an argument. Then you try to lure me and others into just such an argument. Sorry, not biting on this one.

If you think Nika is a great passer, then make an impassioned plea for her. That's what BY is good for, and I'd love to hear it. I'm one of her biggest fans. But don't waste your time trying to refute people, or to debate them. This isn't a debate club. It's a fan forum.

As for the rest of your post, I'm totally with you. Especially the part where you mention that Nika is good at shaking a defender and blowing by into the lane. She's good at that. Now we just want to see her take it to the hoop occasionally. Her passing will improve immediately.

 

[Bald Husky]

Here is the problem. Not until this year have I heard any indication that the coaches have been on Nika to improve her offensive game. We at the BY have been discussing this since she became a starter her freshman year. We all are frustrated when she gets in the lane, one step from a lay-up, and she kicks it out. Nothing wrong with that if there is an open player to shoot a 3, but she ALWAYS passes it out. In the lane, so many opportunities for a pull-up, but no, she passes it out. I'm not saying anything new or anything we have not talked about. My problem is why haven't the coaches said something, because if Geno did get on her I think we would have seen a difference in her play.
Now, to the thread title. If Nika can take at least 10 shots a game, and average 10-12 points a game, she will be the most important player. Azzi is here to score, Caroline is here to score, as is Lou and every "BIG" that needs someone to get them the ball. Nika is a very good passer, defender, rebounder, and if she can pick up her offence, she will be fine. Last year she told us that she likes to pass so two people will be happy, so evidently, nobody talked to her last year about scoring. She is going to surprise us this year and I just can't wait to see it.

 

[jchusky]

Here is the problem. Not until this year have I heard any indication that the coaches have been on Nika to improve her offensive game. We at the BY have been discussing this since she became a starter her freshman year. We all are frustrated when she gets in the lane, one step from a lay-up, and she kicks it out. Nothing wrong with that if there is an open player to shoot a 3, but she ALWAYS passes it out. In the lane, so many opportunities for a pull-up, but no, she passes it out. I'm not saying anything new or anything we have not talked about. My problem is why haven't the coaches said something, because if Geno did get on her I think we would have seen a difference in her play.
Now, to the thread title. If Nika can take at least 10 shots a game, and average 10-12 points a game, she will be the most important player. Azzi is here to score, Caroline is here to score, as is Lou and every "BIG" that needs someone to get them the ball. Nika is a very good passer, defender, rebounder, and if she can pick up her offence, she will be fine. Last year she told us that she likes to pass so two people will be happy, so evidently, nobody talked to her last year about scoring. She is going to surprise us this year and I just can't wait to see it.

I know it's beating a dead horse and she's gone, but Shea Ralph influence on guards will never go unnoticed. She just had a way of getting the best out of guards.

 

[BobbyJ]

Lol. I’ll include @BobbyJ , @CocoHusky , and @TeamFirst! in this response and make it my last one.

First, I agree that the “eye test” can uncover things that stats do not. I also know enough about @BobbyJ and @CocoHusky to know they have more experienced eyes than me. Finally, as one who has had to both use and fault stats in my career, I have a pretty good idea when they are being abused.

So, for example, I never pointed at Fudd’s low assist totals as an argument against her. If I did, then the rationale you used that she was not being used in that manner, would legitimately have shot me down.

But I used A/T comparisons instead. While there is good reason to expect post players to have lower numbers than perimeter players, that reason does not apply between perimeter players. There were times in our recent past when Faris and Samuelson were our leading A/T players, well over 2.0, but neither were point guards.

As for the eye tests, while I concede that @BobbyJ and others have better “eyes,” I call BS on witnessing how Fudd and Muhl played this past year and claiming there was an obvious difference in their intuitive passing. Sorry, don’t buy it. Both thread the needle at times, both threw it away. To the extent that one is better than the other by “eye test,” it is a subtle difference at best.

And the same goes for using the “eye test” to compare Fudd’s AAU ball with Muhl’s European ball. I saw some pretty fine passing from both, and would claim BS to claims of obvious differences in both.

So that leaves comparing Fudd’s A/T stats from AAU to Muhl’s from European. I don’t have the foggiest idea what those numbers are, and I’m not inclined to look them up. If Fudd’s are noticeably better, than that raises the question of why they dropped last season. Admittedly it also leaves hope that it could improve substantially with further adjustment.

But this also leads to my final point on the matter. Muhl also had a lot of fine drives to the basket in European ball, but in her early days at UConn she drove to the basket a number of times and missed quite badly. Mind you she was able to get by defenders, that was not the problem, but when you drive for a lay up and toss an air ball that can mess with your mind, kind of the “Chuck Knoblauch” effect. So she stopped driving and, for some mysterious reason, thought her best course of action was always to get the ball to Bueckers.

It’s possible that Muhl can overcome this block and drive to the basket as she did in European ball. It’s possible that Fudd can overcome whatever created her inferior A/T numbers, if they were so much better during AAU ball. It would be consistent for a fan to hope for both to happen, in which case Muhl still should get the nod for PG, because that would work best for the system.

Thinking that giving Fudd a few months of training for the nuances of PG prepares her as well as six years of training for Muhl does not have much basis in either stats or eye tests.

It's no problem that we slightly disagree, everyone usually sees things in a different way. I enjoy having an animated back and forth with someone who can make their points in an adult way.

 

[eebmg]

Let's just make sure you and @eebmg are not thinking my assessment was harsh because this is Nika we are talking about. As @BobbyJ pointed I/we made very similar assessments of ONO regarding the need for offensive improvement, her propensity to disappear in big games and get in foul trouble beginning when ONO was a freshman. On the current roster we have also made the same exact assessment of Aubrey Griffin's need to gain a better understanding of the UCONN offense and her inability to develop a a deep ball. In the aftermath of the Arizona we also accessed that Paige need to get stronger so as to be able to better handle contact.
Geno's method is not to go public as a first resort with criticism of his players. I'm fairly certain he's had the discussion with Nika privately before the article you quoted.

Nope. Never thought that. Took your assessment at face value. I am convinced you are equal opportunity harsh (just kidding ).

But I find it strange you say Geno's method is not to go public as a first resort with criticism of his players

Geno will criticize a player quite quickly if the skill is something critical to the team. Geno had plenty to say (in a humorous way of course) about Nika's fouling. Heck, Geno let the world know he is not super happy about Paige's pass first approach when it stifles her aggressiveness. Geno did mention that Nika has to be willing to shoot open 3's her freshman year and through hard work, she got better doing that and I am sure that was his biggest criticism

The real wrinkle we are hearing now is that Nika has to do better finishing around the basket and in the mid range. I am guessing this was not made so public since Nika had enough improvements on her list to work through as a freshman and sophomore and now she is ready (and now very much needed) to take the next step. So I am sure Nika will work very hard to fill in this latest part to her game

 

[diggerfoot]

Nice try. You concede that stats can be abused to win an argument. Then you try to lure me and others into just such an argument. Sorry, not biting on this one.

If you think Nika is a great passer, then make an impassioned plea for her. That's what BY is good for, and I'd love to hear it. I'm one of her biggest fans. But don't waste your time trying to refute people, or to debate them. This isn't a debate club. It's a fan forum.

As for the rest of your post, I'm totally with you. Especially the part where you mention that Nika is good at shaking a defender and blowing by into the lane. She's good at that. Now we just want to see her take it to the hoop occasionally. Her passing will improve immediately.

I see that at least @BobbyJ has the measure of what I am about. I do not do impassioned pleas. I am not an acolyte for any player, except when I think they might be unfairly treated. I often dislike impassioned pleas.

Nor do I claim to be certain when I am not. I am not certain, for example, that Muhl will dominate the PG minutes, but I am certain that is bad news for UConn if she does not.

What I am for is experience, both in the forms of eye tests and data, leading me to what I believe and not the other way around. My experience, my eye test, does not make Fudd an obviously better passer than Muhl. Comparing the experience embedded in assists data, of which Muhl has more than three times than Fudd, would be bogus and an example of abuse of data. Comparing the experience embedded in A/T is not abusing data. How is it so? A whole season is not statistically too small of a sample size.

The BY is not just for impassioned pleas, but also for people to present reliable evidence, data, the experience of their eyes, in support of their conclusions. If you do not think that some data can be abused but some appropriate, so that any data I use is inappropriate and an abusive lure, then the real contention between us has nothing to do with a comparison between Fudd and Muhl.

 

[CocoHusky]

I know the focus in this discussion has largely centered on who would be better at PG, Azzi or Nika. But don't most of us assume Azzi and Caroline will start and get major minutes? I consider that pretty much of a given, so the real decision is between Nika and Lou for that last starting position.

No. The discussion mostly centers around this @JoePgh original question; "Who will be Nika's backup at PG." The assumption that Nika would be a starter was challenged which then morphed in this question: Between Nika and Azzi who is best option to be the starting PG. If healthy most people are assuming Caroline will be the starting SF and that Nika is limited to play the PG position exclusively.

 

[TeamFirst!]

The thread starts out saying Nika is the most important player and then there are several pages of Nika as near worthless. Both are way off. We all know Nika is a valuable asset right? There is no question about that. She’s going to get 20 minutes of PT and maybe more. She almost definitely starts even. We NEED Nika. My only point is that Azzi is a better PG and we have Lou and Caroline as solid offensive assets, along with our bigs. With our depth situation we are going to need Nika badly. I wouldn’t be surprised if Azzi gets 35 minutes plus in big games, as well as Caroline. I’m hopeful Lou can be a major asset. We lose even one of them to injury and the rest are going to have to play major minutes.

 

[Bone Dog]

@diggerfoot I’m not arguing with you at all. I have no interest in debate or refutation. That has always struck me as a bizarre use of a fan forum.

My experience, my eye test, does not make Fudd an obviously better passer than Muhl. Comparing the experience embedded in assists data, of which Muhl has more than three times than Fudd, would be bogus and an example of abuse of data. Comparing the experience embedded in A/T is not abusing data.

You seem to have a theory of data and debate. I don’t care about any of that. I’m curious about your sense of how the players might perform in the coming season.

If you don’t want to share, fine. You don’t need to refute my prognostications. They’re just guesses. I’m happy to hear your disagreement with me, and any alternative views you have. Sharing each other’s guesses, relishing our differences of opinion, that’s the fun bit. Lecturing each other on data and rules of refutation is decidedly not fun.

Now to the fun part: you’re right that Nika had a lot more assists than Azzi. Why do you think that is? It’s an interesting fact.

 

[CocoHusky]

The real wrinkle we are hearing now is that Nika has to do better finishing around the basket and in the mid range. I am guessing this was not made so public since Nika had enough improvements on her list to work through as a freshman and sophomore and now she is ready (and now very much needed) to take the next step. So I am sure Nika will work very hard to fill in this latest part to her game

This is not a new wrinkle nor is it the first time we are hearing it. Nika began her UCONN career by missing her first 9 layup attempts. For her entire freshman season Nika shot the ball from mid-range exactly 2 times in105 FGA. Of those 105 FGA, 70 were from behind the 3Pt line. FF to her sophomore season and of her 116 FGA attempts 6 were from mid range and 73 were from behind the arc.
You may be correct in that the list of things needing improvement that was handed to Nika after her freshman season may have been too long. But how is it that for a player who is restricted to playing the PG position, that theneed to utilize the entire floor not at the top of that needs improvement list?

 

[Huskee11]

Nika is my favorite Husky, so take anything I have to say with a grain of salt.

Nika has shot a little over 34% from three point range in both the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons. Last season, that percentage was better than the percentages for Christyn, Evina and Caroline. I recognize that those three probably took more contested three pointers, but still worth noting.

As I recall, in both seasons Nika has started slow but picked it up from three point range as the season went along, perhaps as her playing time increased. So I think I would like to see her get off to a quicker start from deep in the coming season and if so, she might get the percentage up to around 38%. I would take that.

It was clear to me from watching her warmup before games (I am a season ticket holder and always try to get there early) that she was working on her midrange game. Her movements were slow and deliberate, almost rehearsed, and it was clear that she had been following through on coaching she had received. She actually had some success from the midrange, not much but some, a little more than the previous year. I saw a video taken earlier this summer, I believe, where she was working on the midrange shots and she looked much more fluid, natural, and comfortable. I am hoping that she continues to progress in that area.

Introducing the three pointer has been an overall positive for basketball, I think, but it has been a negative in terms of players (many, not all) developing a midrange game.

I don`t know if that constant passing off the dribble drive is a European thing or not, but Anna Makurat was guilty of that as well. Nika is certainly capable of finishing at the hoop. I think it is a mindset more than anything else.

Geno certainly doesn`t need my advice, but I hope he would tell her to not worry if she misses a layup, a midrange jumper, or a three pointer. Or all three. You are my point guard, and I want you to take those shots in the flow of the offense. If you miss, you miss. That may help free her up mentally to take those shots.

On the defensive end, I think there will be nights when Nika finds herself in foul trouble. She will be aggressive, at times overly so, and on top of that the refs in WCBB call touch fouls on the perimeter all night while allowing felony assaults in the paint. We have to hope that she is able to stay on the floor in the biggest of games. I`m sure she is aware of this.

My larger concern is that her treating every defensive possession as Armageddon - diving and crashing into things and people after loose balls, rushing from 20 feet away to try and take a charge under the hoop, etc. - is going to catch up to her at some point. I found myself cringing and swearing under my breath at her for throwing herself in harm`s way last season more often than I can count. Difficult to tell the bull in the shop to be careful around the china - but I think she needs to protect herself more while still being Nika.

Something that (I think) has been overlooked in this thread but which I have observed - the offense works well when she is on the floor. Offenses can always get stagnant, but when she is on the floor there seems to be a lot of movement, and open shots are created. That is a benefit that goes beyond any deep dive analysis of her individual skills. Oh, and energy, there is that too, as in she has a whole lot of it and it is contagious.

If everything goes true to form, I would expect her to play about 28-30 minutes a game at the point guard position with Azzi playing more minutes than that, and probably playing the point much of the time Nika is on the bench.

 

[Bone Dog]

We might call Nika “the most important player” in a few senses. Best defender, best scorer, best passer, etc. We might also think she’s important as a sort of “canary in the coal mine.” If she succeeds in avoiding fouls and scores off the dribble enough to make her effective for longer, this may make it possible for the others to actually carry the team. If we see her regularly getting 25+ mins, even if her other stats don’t leap off the page, it might signal to us that we can run our usual offense, that she’s done enough.

 

[diggerfoot]

@diggerfoot I’m not arguing with you at all. I have no interest in debate or refutation. That has always struck me as a bizarre use of a fan forum.

You seem to have a theory of data and debate. I don’t care about any of that. I’m curious about your sense of how the players might perform in the coming season.

If you don’t want to share, fine. You don’t need to refute my prognostications. They’re just guesses. I’m happy to hear your disagreement with me, and any alternative views you have. Sharing each other’s guesses, relishing our differences of opinion, that’s the fun bit. Lecturing each other on data and rules of refutation is decidedly not fun.

Now to the fun part: you’re right that Nika had a lot more assists than Azzi. Why do you think that is? It’s an interesting fact.

My salient point is that I allow experience, whether in the form of eye tests or data, to determine what I believe and not the other way around. Using what you believe to determine what you see or what data you value exposes why the eye test can be abused just as surely as stats can. People’s a priori beliefs determines what they see, thus their eyes cannot be trusted.

I do not see, nor attempt to use, debates as contests to be won or lost. Rather, in their best forms I see them as negotiations to arrive at the truth, or at least consensus. I have no difference of opinion with those who think Fudd is a better all around player, so no negotiation is necessary to persuade me of that.

I see no evidence of Fudd being a better PG. There are declarations being made, most without any evidence of all, but a few like you declare she is a better passer. The evidence you gave was the eye test, but my eye test differs from yours, leaving the possibility in my mind that what you already believe is influencing what you see.

I offer data to counter that, considering that when not abused data does not suffer from the biases of an eye test. I did not use assist totals, because that is an unfair comparison considering what their roles were. Of course Muhl should compile a lot more assists, as that was more her job to have them, but perhaps Fudd could have chocked up the assists just as effectively if that were her role.

But there is not a good reason for Fudd’s A/T being 0.45 less than Muhl’s, other than she is not as good at taking care of the ball, a pretty important quality for a PG. But as I view “debates” as negotiations rather than contests, I am open to changing my mind based on new data. That is why I brought up AAU and European stats. If the stats reveal that Fudd’s A/T took a serious dive transitioning to UConn basketball, then I am willing to at least entertain the idea that Fudd is not innately worse than Muhl at taking care of the ball, but rather she needs to adjust more.

Still, Fudd only has a few months to either learn, or regain, a better ability of taking care of the ball, whereas Muhl has been in training for precisely this role for many years. It’s also possible that Muhl’s A/T dipped from European ball, her ability to make a lay up on a drive certainly has, and she has potential she needs to regain as well, rather than learn from scratch.

Generally, when I get the sense that a person views debates as only contests to win or lose I bow out. Negotiating to get at the truth or consensus is fruitless with such people. It could be they feel their self-esteem damaged if they don’t “win” a debate. Despite your reliance on the eye test only, usually a dangerous sign, I have not got that sense with you. Thus I continued to debate, though with a different objective than you apparently think I have.

 

[Bone Dog]

@diggerfoot, you’re absolutely right about one thing, beliefs do influence how we experience things, and this is true of me for sure. For example, I have a few friends who hate the Patriots, insist on calling them the Cheatriots. Naturally they’re Steelers fans. We can watch the same game and see very different things. This is one of the reasons I enjoy talking football with them.

Data can correct for these variations, and used well can raise the level of a conversation. But it does not as often enhance the mutual enjoyment of those conversations, since their main virtue is not accuracy.

This may mean the best use of data is as the starting point, not as the basis of a refutation, as you say. Like the one you started us with: why does Azzi have fewer assists, or a worse a/t ratio and yet seems so much more valuable a player to many of us? A similar question could be asked about Caroline. One thing we might ask is whether a single data point like a/t ratio captures the reality of the game flow. Were all the turnovers live ball turnovers? Every turnover costs us a possession, but they don’t all weigh the same in the result. Some directly cost a score, some lead directly to an opponent scoring, and so on. Other stats may capture this sort of difference better than a/t.

Caroline made a bunch of turnovers in her first several games. But she was also frequently the team’s savior. Situationally, those turnovers were disappointing and I hope she’ll improve in this area, but I was happy to trade them for everything else she contributed. I don’t have a stat for how many possessions were wasted without a turnover, because we were forced into a bad shot by poor passing from the point or poor execution of a motion offense. But I know there were quite a few from experience.

In the first DePaul game, the team was outhustled, and outplayed in the post by Morrow, and I’m sure Geno didn’t want it to come down to the a last second shot. But when it did, he wanted Caroline to take the last shot and she did it, thank goodness! In the rematch, we practically ran DePaul off the court even though Caroline didn’t play and Azzi shot poorly. It is not hard to see why after the fact in a few stats like points in the paint and points off turnovers. That’s what the change in “hustle” produced, I guess. But I still like our chances better with Azzi and Caroline on the floor the next time we play them.