No matter how you look at it, with the loss of Bueckers, Auriemma knows he has to replace at least 20 points of offense. Muhl will get her shot early to show if she’s improved her offense noticeably. If she hasn’t, I don’t see him watching his offense grind along in second gear. I believe Fudd will get the majority of the minutes running it in close games against quality competition if that’s the case. They have no one close to ONO inside on D and they’re going to need around 80 a game to beat good teams.
Muhl is not a better passer than Fudd and the foul shooting isn’t close. Auriemma will need all the offense he can get this year and I believe he’ll prioritize it.
Your post leads me to believe that you think shooting and passing are unrelated and independent skills. For example you say that Nika did not have very good shooters to pass to, yet those were some of the same players that Paige was passing to when she broke UCONN freshman record for assists and when Paige returned from injury to lead the team in A:TO. So what would make some of those same players good shooters for Paige and suddenly "not very good shooters" for Nika?
I disagree on the passing, and don't think it is even close. Regardless of who starts at PG, I think Azzi and Caroline get maximum minutes as starters, the main decision on playing time is how the remaining minutes get split between Lou and Nika. All the combinations of those four will see time together and have a track record after we get some games in.
My point is more about the shooters both Paige and Nika had to work with. In their freshmen year most of the time played at the 2 and 3 was Christyn and Evina. When either Paige or Nika was playing the point, on the perimeter they had just OK three point threats. That also made it easier to defend the paint against us, because if you gave up an open three to Christyn or Evina it was still better than an easy 2.
Why do we need her off ball as much as possible when Paige, a PG and who handled the ball most often, averaged 20 ppg her freshman year? Having the ball in your hands does not necessarily mean you impact the offense less, in many cases, you impact it more.
Geno moved Nika into the starting lineup freshman year precisely in order to allow Paige to play off the ball as much a possible.
That year PB (29 of 29), EW (30 of 30) and CW (29 of 29) started every game they played, so NM starting was more of a function of the other players ineffectiveness or injury, not to get PB off the ball. PB was going to score regardless whether she had the ball in her hands. She is an elite scorer, as is . Elite scorers will score from whatever position they play.
I think we are getting hung up on the starting part. Paige is a great point guard and great off the ball. Nika is far more effective as the point guard and frankly is not nearly as good off the ball. So if Paige and Nika are both in the game, it works much better with Nika at the point and Paige as the SG. When Nika is not in the game Paige is the obvious choice at PG.
I like your optimism. Don't ever lose that.
Fudd would have no problem getting the ball to the other shooters because she can do it off penetration with her head up beating the primary defender and forcing the D to make a choice. Give her an open 12 footer or stay with the wing. If the help comes she kicks it to an open shooter. Not less effective because the D will come at her much more often than they will Muhl leaving a shooter wide open more often. Because she can make the shots. That's why GA played her with Bueckers so much in close games against quality teams during the end of season run. He needed offense and he'll need consistent offense even more this year because this team won't be built to play from behind against decent/really good teams. They don't have their goalie anymore.
If I understand you correctly, Azzi is a better point guard than Nika. I think that's right, from a purely skills point of view. The only question I have about it is whether it costs us something to have Azzi at point. We all know what that might be. But maybe it is worth it to get fewer 3s from Azzi if it means we get better perimeter production from Caroline and Lou.
That is simply not correct. Nika was moved into the starting lineup her freshman year as a result of two injuries to starting players. ( Ann Mukarat and Paige Beckers). This was UCONN 10th game of the season on 1/23/21 against Georgetown. It is not as if Nika was on a hot streak prior to that first start either. In the game before Georgetown Nika was a healthy DNP Coaches Decision vs TN. Prior to the TN game Nika played a total of 13 minutes in a 68 point win against Butler. Prior to the Butler game Nika was scoreless (0 for 6) in a 37 point win against Providence. Prior to Providence Nika was again held scoreless in 7 minutes against DePaul -a 23 point UCONN win. Prior to the DePaul game NIka was again a healthy DNP Coaches Decision vs Villanova. After the first 4 games of the season (up to Villanova) Nika had not recorded a singe field goal, had two games ( Creighton & Xavier) that were DNP Coaches Decision and had assists total of 1 vs 7 turnovers. Nika didn't do anything significant enough to earn a starting spot prior to the the Georgetown game and Paige didn't need much help because by that point she had established herself as the National Freshman of the week 2x and was well on her way to being POY.
I'm not really into the "we needs" thing, I'm focused on what Auriemma needs and does. Yes, one of his and the team's goals is to win the BE. But he freely says that they use the whole season to prepare for the NC tournament. It usually involves testing players in different positions and situations to see who he can trust when the big games come. That was difficult last year due to all the injuries, particularly to Bueckers. But when it came tournament time he did just what I expected him to.
Yes, Nika entered the starting lineup because of an injury. But that's not why she stayed in it. And yes, Anna was a superior offensive player to Nika, though certainly not a viable point guard. And yes, Nika's defensive presence was unquestionably superior to Anna's, especially after her injury. All in all, Nika entered the position accidentally but opportunely. And it would be bizarre to ignore the advantage Geno saw in having Nika at point for Paige's game. We can disagree about whether it paid off in greater offense and defense for the entire squad or even for Paige. But that's a different question. For whatever reason, Geno preferred having Paige off the ball for part of the game.
I can't tell if you're agreeing or disagreeing with my point. I have no idea what Geno "needs" -- I'll leave that to others to offer learned opinions on. When asked, Geno usually mentions a bottle in a cabinet in his office. If you think we're not permitted to speculate on what might be good for the team (i.e. "we need..."), then the BY must be a dull place indeed, since there's little else such a forum can be used for besides sharing news and speculating on the likely significance of it.
Clarification question: Are you projecting Nika as the starting PG, only playing only 20 minutes per game as well as projecting and offense improvement? If so I would strongly disagree- That would be fewer MPG than Nika has averaged in each of her first two season.
I was saying that we’d need at least, ie more than, 20 mins from her at the end of the season especially, for the various reasons expressed above. By the way, she did not average 20 mins in the tournament. And I’m also emphasizing that in the absence of Paige, Nika may need to be a better offensive threat all season long. Obviously in a 4-out set, with Azzi Caroline and Lou on the floor, the pressure on her is less but still substantial, for reasons we’ve all rehearsed often in the past few weeks. We’ve got a lot of weapons, but a pg is key to getting them open looks.
Certainly everyone can speculate as much as they want. But I speculate as an individual, independent observer since I have no ties to UConn and not as part of a group. I've followed Auriemma's teams for almost 30 years for their discipline and up tempo system. While I enjoy seeing their work pay off with a lot of success, I don't refer to the team as "we" since I'm not a member of it. To each his own. I have no needs from Muhl, Auriemma and the team do. I mostly agree with your points on this particular subject but I'm just not that concerned with all the mpg variables. I'm more interested in what Auriemma does when it's time to win games against teams he has a realistic chance of losing to. That's when we'll see if Muhl is indeed the most important player as the thread title implies and has the most impact on winning or losing.
Which is as much as to say, "only time will tell." It turns out we do agree (see above post).
strongly agree, esp when a game is close imo comes down to has her scoring after 3 seasons improved? If not you are basically playing a 5 on 4 game on offense cause opposing teams are not fearing her shot.
Playing PG is a role and responsibility that Fudd was not told to focus on and make her own during her chaotic, in and out freshman season last year. So I don't think stats compiled playing a different position really apply here. Auriemma doesn't have a lot of options with this roster as it is so I'm sure he'll use the preseason practices and maybe even the first couple games to test, experiment, and look at it from several angles for what's his best fit. Ball security and movement, transition quickness, finishing breaks, and even FT shooting in close games will likely be factors. And when he makes his decisions on his best option for certain games, matchups, and situations, I doubt he'll be looking at historical A/T ratios.
Exactly. We’ve had this before our eyes all summer. She can hit the occasional 3, but those are standing set shots. But if she’s not a credible threat to score off the dribble, her ability to facilitate suffers.
she doesn't need to be a scorer, the other team is going to make her beat them. In the Oregon she had clear looks from 3 hesitated and passed.
The need for Nika's offensive improvement, better ball security and better control defensively (less fouling) was very apparent within the first 10 games of her Freshman year. It should not take until her Junior year and a second major injury to Paige for Nika to come to the realization that those needs for improvement are critical to UCONN team success. This is also not the UCONN WBB way. Being surrounded by superior scorers should not have been used as an excuse because that has always been the case for any Non-starter at UCONN. That reality (being with superior scorers) should have been used by Nika as a challenge to elevate her individual game to be on par with her teammates. This would have eliminated much of the severe disrespect that UCONN opponents are showing to Nika defensively by allowing her to shoot wide open uncontested shots, not defending essential spots on the floor such as the rim and playing Nika strictly to pass all while doubling down on other players on the floor.
Lol. And Muhl’s own chaos, also with injury and adjusting to our style of basketball, is not a factor in her performance?
Exactly. Auriemma would've been all over this at that point and that's why I can't believe this recent challenge to her was his first. Maybe that's why he made it public. Like Ono with her offense, I don't understand how some players at this level of BB can be so unaware of the need to constantly upgrade their games. Even just watching all the pro and college games that they do and seeing what the best players are able to do should cause a light to come on for them.