Next year's #1

[Dillon77]

That is probably the most important factor, but definitely not the only important factor. Given the sophomore leap is usually the largest, teams with excellent freshmen classes might improve a bunch. And sophomores to juniors is a big jump, too, for players that take a little longer to develop. (Incoming freshmen almost never have a significant impact.)
Think about UConn after the big 3 graduated. Napheesa and KLS had great sophomore campaigns. And Gabby and Kia raised their games as juniors. (Dangerfield didn't have much of an impact as a freshman that year.)
Or take Notre Dame the year after Diggins graduated. Conventional wisdom had Notre Dame taking a step back (preseason #6 AP and #7 Coaches), but the rest of the players showed so much development that Notre Dame was undefeated until the NC game, when an Achonwa-less Irish team (she tore her ACL in the E8 game against Baylor) were drubbed by the your Huskies.
So in that vein, I would be wary of Baylor, as they have an excellent freshman class and lots of returning talent.

Good points across the board.

Oregon with an exclamation point if Ionescu comes back for her senior year and the younger Sabally sister is ready to roll from her injury.

I agree with you on Baylor, for the reasons you mention, plus the fact that I think the Cox/Smith dynamic might turn out to be a very good one. Bonus points if Alexis Morris comes back from suspension. (Late(r) note: Just found out she transferred to Rutgers: scratch that PG input.)

Maryland returns every current starter (most of their rotation, actually). Austin and Mikesell have had solid frosh years and if they see any soph bump, whew. Blair Watson will only be stronger after this season. If they get anything out of incoming freshman such as Ashley Owusu and Diamond Miller, that could be a very strong squad.

As for our Irish, Notre Dame is losing four (4) starters...there's no getting around that...and there are no seasoned players like "Ace" Achonwa and/or K-Mac. Of course, there's a variable that could make this even more tenuous (Ok, worse): will Jackie Young come back for her senor year? If so, expect Jewell Loyd-like explosions. If not, this will be a rebuilding year. Not even thinking #1 here, just how the Irish will do. Fully expect MM to whip them into Fighting (Irish) shape, but have no lofty expectations for the beginning of the season. Patience.

 

[DaBball]

Good points across the board.

I agree with you on Baylor, for the reasons you mention, plus the fact that I think the Cox/Smith dynamic might turn out to be a very good one. Bonus points if Alexis Morris comes back from suspension.

She is headed to Rutgers.

 

[LoTrader]

Lord, that is some serious size!!

I should have mentioned that Taya Corosdale is 6'3" and usually getting 10+ boards a game. But she is 2nd on the team to 5'10" Mikayla Pivec who had 19 rebounds last weekend vs Washington. Beavers will be very difficult to outrebound next year.

 

[LoTrader]

Under what conditions does Sabrina return to University of Oregon for her senior year?

 

[Bear11]

Someone in the know on the Baylor board reported that there is a chance Chloe Jackson could apply for an extra year of eligibility. I don't know if that waiver would be granted, or if she is even interested, but that would obviously have a major impact next year.

 

[DaBball]

Mississippi State intrigues me. For the third consecutive year, they will lose ≥ 3/5 of their starting lineup, and 4/5 for the second consecutive year. In those two seasons (17-18, 18-19) Vic has proven/is proving rebuilding doesn’t exist in Starkville, but reloading does.

The difference from the times he lost 3 and then 4 starters? This woman in the middle, Teaira McCowan. She had been a mainstay, but they will have to replace her this time around. They have two options in Ole Miss transfer Promise Taylor and freshman Jessika Carter. Taylor has proven she can play in the SEC as she made the All-Freshman team next year. They won’t get McCowan-esque numbers from the post, but those two could do a lot of damage, especially if both play 18-20 mins a night and keep fresh.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Certainly not expecting another Final Four caliber squad, but Mississippi State will have a lot to work with next year. Promise Taylor and Jess Carter in the post (being coached by a proven post developer in Johnnie Harris). Bibby back. AEH and Bre Scott back. Xaria Wiggins. Rickea Jackson and some other nice freshmen.

Key will be how far Myah Taylor progresses at the point and if one of the freshmen can capably back her up.

3 or 4 seed seems a reasonable goal.

I thought 2018-2019 would be an off year but it obviously has not, next year I suspect we will be a tough out in the tournament, depending on how well the freshmen meld with the older guys we could be final four again! Why, Vic!

 

[Reypl21]

Under what conditions does Sabrina return to University of Oregon for her senior year?

They are the favorite to win it all next year with really good teammates

 

[DaBball]

Someone in the know on the Baylor board reported that there is a chance Chloe Jackson could apply for an extra year of eligibility. I don't know if that waiver would be granted, or if she is even interested, but that would obviously have a major impact next year.

I forgot that she sat out her first season at NC State (played 4 games - earned a redshirt), then sat out a year, then 2 seasons at LSU, plus one at Baylor.

 

[IWearShoes]

Speaking of #1,

Oops, I dropped something...

Sorry for the slight highjack, but I had to post this before it changes forever in a day or three. Not sure MSU's ladies have ever actually made it to #1 in any national rating.

 

[Dillon77]

She is headed to Rutgers.

Thanks. I missed that news (last week?). Still will keep what I wrote and possible bonus points if Jackson comes back.

Morris and C. Viv seem like a good match. And Davenport is headed north for her frosh season.

 

[Plebe]

Speaking of #1,

Oops, I dropped something...

View attachment 39026

Sorry for the slight highjack, but I had to post this before it changes forever in a day or three. Not sure MSU's ladies have ever actually made it to #1 in any national rating.

Wow, who knew that beating LSU in women's basketball could earn a #1 ranking.

 

[Vowelguy]

My way-too-early top 5:

1. Baylor: loses Brown and Jackson but the strong freshman class led by NaLyssa Smith will step in.
2. Oregon: loses Cazorla and Gildon but should get the younger Sabally sister.
3. Stanford: loses Smith and some role players, but strong recruiting class arrives.
4. Maryland: loses only Fraser.
5. South Carolina: loses Cuevas-Moore, Jennings and Cliney; but killer recruiting class is on the way.

I'd flip 1/2, but think I agree with the rest.

 

[LoTrader]

I'd flip 1/2, but think I agree with the rest.

I appreciate that you both have 2 PAC-12 Teams in the top 5. I optimistic that it will be a different pair of PAC-12 teams in the top 5 next season.

 

[willtalk]

I was curious about Oregon's 2019 commits because they did not seem to be getting any top rated high school players. Well that is because all three of their commits are from over seas. They bring in two Aussies both of which played on the national team. One is a 6'5" center. The third player is a Brit guard. When you add the younger Sabally they have some good talent coming in. Even if they lose Sabrina they will be weaker at guard because they also lose Cazorla. This is where the loss of Ayuso going pro will really hurt them . Greaves should have given her more court time. I think her lack of playing time influenced her decision much like the others who transferred out. They do not miss them but they will miss Ayuso who many thought was better than Cazorla. Still they will be stronger at every other position. They should be solid in the middle. If Sabrina comes back they should be the unquestioned favorites.

Stanford will add 3 McDonalds ( including top player in the nation )+ another five star recruit to an already strong team. Of course they will be losing their center Smith who is a beast. Smith will be a big loss and it depends how quickly their five start center recruit develops to determine how much of a loss it might turn out to be.

Now Oregon St adds a slew of talent to their position of weakness. They add two 5 star posts and Aquino who is red shirting this year due to a foot issue. The two players they lose are McWillaims and Grymek. However they will get back Kat Tudor who should make up for McWilliams loss and who actually is more comfortable in the higher speed game they play now with Slocum. They have plenty of parameter players who can shoot the ball. Grymek is improving every game, but with the groups of posts they will have available to them they should actually be stronger with the addition of the two 5 stars and farther development of their present 6'7" frosh.

And most important - All three teams have top level coaches who know how to make the most of their available talent.

If Baylor would have gotten Morris back ( who decided on transferring to Rutgers ) they would have been really scary as well. She was important because they lose the grad senior Jackson who was filling in at the Point. They also lose Brown and we do not really know how well the present frosh class will be able to fill those slots, especially at point. They should be really good and possibly better than this year, but it is not just about being better but how they compare to improvements that other teams make.

I believe that the comparison to other teams improvement is what those that have conservative expectations in respect to to Uconn this coming season. They do lose a lot of key players. Geno will make sure the available players improve but how much will that compensate for the improvements of other teams?. Parity is becoming a reality. There are now more teams that have elite level players on their rosters. When you combine more teams with elite players on teams with elite coaches, then wiggle room for missing out on recruits diminishes and more critical. It isn't anymore about just recruiting a lot of blue chippers but filling in any weak spots in the roster.

 

[Ozzie1986]

Oregon
5'11 Ionescu/5'10 Chavez
5'9 Shelley/5'9 Yaeger/?
6'2 Boley/5'11 Winterburn
6'4 S.Sabally/6'4 N.Sabally
6'4 Hebard/6'6 Giomi/6'6 Cochrane



I think Texas will make a leap next year, along with South Carolina.

 

[SimpleDawg]

We've been really underrated this year, and here we are sitting at 20-1.

Both Louisville and Mississippi State have been seriously counted out this year. And in regards to Louisville, what happened last night again?


...

 

[Plebe]

We've been really underrated this year, and here we are sitting at 20-1.

Both Louisville and Mississippi State have been seriously counted out this year. And in regards to Louisville, what happened last night again?

What are you even talking about? Who has "counted out" Louisville and Mississippi State?

Please tell me you're not coming on this board to taunt people about a loss.

 

[IWearShoes]

We've been really underrated this year, and here we are sitting at 20-1.

Both Louisville and Mississippi State have been seriously counted out this year. And in regards to Louisville, what happened last night again?


...

Why would you post this? It's pointlessly antagonistic and unnecessary.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Folks rating South Carolina high due to a high-ranked recruiting class apparently haven't watched UConn the last couple years. I suspect Haley Jones can have an impact at Stanford quickly. The rest of the class, not convinced.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Wow, who knew that beating LSU in women's basketball could earn a #1 ranking.

If your program can't beat this LSU team, you have some serious problems

That said Miss St is a top program, they made us look worse then a lot HS teams yesterday.


Here is a comment from one of LSU's players, Ayanna Mitchell

"we don’t take this serious. We don’t take certain games, this conference, serious, and it shows in practice and in games. We take these games and these opportunities for granted.”

But thats okay, our AD handed her a 3 year extension for eating bonbons...

I'll just focus on watching real teams play good basketball (UCONN, Baylor, Miss St, Louisville, ND, Stanford)

 

[DaBball]

Oregon
5'11 Ionescu/5'10 Chavez
5'9 Shelley/5'9 Yaeger/?
6'2 Boley/5'11 Winterburn
6'4 S.Sabally/6'4 N.Sabally
6'4 Hebard/6'6 Giomi/6'6 Cochrane



I think Texas will make a leap next year, along with South Carolina.

I think Chavez will start next season, not Shelley. She has looked pretty good this season.

Texas will depend a lot on the developments of Charli Collier and Sedona Prince. If those two can play together and still be effective, 6’5” and 6’7” talents like those two aren’t easy to stop. Not always easy for two bigs to play together. Brown and Cox play well together though.

 

[uconnfan68]

Folks rating South Carolina high due to a high-ranked recruiting class apparently haven't watched UConn the last couple years. I suspect Haley Jones can have an impact at Stanford quickly. The rest of the class, not convinced.

Yeah, that high flying dunker may not be able to dunk on college height rims... oh wait...

 

[DaBball]

That comment from Mitchell has grad-transfer written all over it. She wants to win, and that is unlikely at LSU. Wonder if Vic would go after yet another SEC grad-transfer. The one he has right now has been pretty darn good.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Someone in the know on the Baylor board reported that there is a chance Chloe Jackson could apply for an extra year of eligibility. I don't know if that waiver would be granted, or if she is even interested, but that would obviously have a major impact next year.

Would love to see what she could do with a 2nd year in that program. I knows transitioning to the PG has been a major adjustment. She has had to change her role significantly compared to how she has been utilized in the past.

Also, while the loss of Brown will suck. I personally think having more mobile posts like Smith and Egbo can be very beneficial for Baylor in the future in terms of their offense.