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NCAA tournament seeding - facts and myths

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Plebe

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Head to head outcome tips the seeding decision in favor of UConn over SC imo.
Well that may be your opinion but I can most certainly assure you it's not the committee's.

The committee is going to look at the resumes holistically. The committee is not made up of 9 UConn homers who post daily on the team's fan forum. Which means they're not going to cherry pick a single data point while disregarding the rest.
 

MooseJaw

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As I understand it. The NET is the actual starting point. The most perfectly fair placement for every team in the tournament.

Then they have the list of exceptions about all sorts of things.

Resulting in being able to place any team anywhere they want.

It is what it is.
Exactly, the list must be followed unless they don't want to. However no matter what they do to try and control things, the games are decided on the court, by the teams.
 

oldude

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You have to compare the entire resume, not one game. So Carolina has more good wins than UConn. Head to head helps but it’s not THE determining factor

View attachment 107077
Nan, I know you’ve watched these seeding determinations play out over many seasons, as have I. I have never seen a top 5 team get beaten at home in February as badly as SC was beaten yesterday and still retain their seeding advantage. If I’m wrong we’ll know in a few weeks and you can tell me, “I told you so.” ;)
 

BRS24

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HuskyNan

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Nan, I know you’ve watched these seeding determinations play out over many seasons, as have I. I have never seen a top 5 team get beaten at home in February as badly as SC was beaten yesterday and still retain their seeding advantage. If I’m wrong we’ll know in a few weeks and you can tell me, “I told you so.” ;)
The thing is, you could end up being right for the wrong reason. The Committee isn’t going to use one game to determine seeding but let’s imagine the Committee members wake up in a good mood and decide to bestow a #1 seed on UConn. It happens. i didn’t use the word capricious without reason or history to back it up
 

Plebe

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Nan, I know you’ve watched these seeding determinations play out over many seasons, as have I. I have never seen a top 5 team get beaten at home in February as badly as SC was beaten yesterday and still retain their seeding advantage. If I’m wrong we’ll know in a few weeks and you can tell me, “I told you so.” ;)
Flip the statement around. In the many seasons I've watched, I've never seen a team with a clearly superior resume get seeded below a team with a clearly inferior resume solely on the basis of one head-to-head result.
 

oldude

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The thing is, you could end up being right for the wrong reason. The Committee isn’t going to use one game to determine seeding but let’s imagine the Committee members wake up in a good mood and decide to bestow a #1 seed on UConn. It happens. i didn’t use the word capricious without reason or history to back it up
So you’re suggesting that UConn could still be a #1 seed even if they lost to SC yesterday? ;)
 

Plebe

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The committee members are human beings. Imagine trying to explain how you seeded SC ahead of UConn after the Huskies beat the Gamecocks by 29 on their home court.
And the explanation is an easy one: "We base our seeding decisions on the entire season, not just one game."
 

oldude

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Flip the statement around. In the many seasons I've watched, I've never seen a team with a clearly superior resume get seeded below a team with a clearly inferior resume solely on the basis of one head-to-head result.
UConn’s resume is hardly clearly inferior as their NET ranking makes clear. Let’s all put a cork in this until the final seedings are completed and made public.
 

Plebe

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UConn’s resume is hardly clearly inferior as their NET ranking makes clear. Let’s all put a cork in this until the final seedings are completed and made public.
A NET ranking is not a resume. A resume is who you've beaten and who you've lost to.

In a holistic assessment of quality wins and significant losses it is not a close call.
 

YKCornelius

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Nan, I know you’ve watched these seeding determinations play out over many seasons, as have I. I have never seen a top 5 team get beaten at home in February as badly as SC was beaten yesterday and still retain their seeding advantage. If I’m wrong we’ll know in a few weeks and you can tell me, “I told you so.” ;)
Here's a question I can't answer, but maybe somebody has time to research: In the relatively short window where the selection committee has provided "reveals", have there even been any Top Five teams receiving anything close to such a loss at home and retain (or improve) the seeding they had in the first reveal?
 

oldude

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A NET ranking is not a resume. A resume is who you've beaten and who you've lost to.

In a holistic assessment of quality wins and significant losses it is not a close call.
You’re bouncing back and force. First it was UConn’s resume is “clearly inferior.” Now we have to use a “holistic assessment” of quality wins. So again I suggest that rather than bouncing back and forth on this, let’s see what happens between now and the end of the season.
 
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You have to compare the entire resume, not one game. So Carolina has more good wins than UConn. Head to head helps but it’s not THE determining factor

View attachment 107077
But interestingly, at the left this shows our NET ranking has just gone from 2 to 1 and SC fell from 1 to 2. Not sure how I can claim this is "our" ranking, I should say it the the team's ranking. I know my rooting for them is vitally important to their winning, but still I am not a person who counts for the team limit of 15 players. I am not even a coach.
 

JoePgh

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Hypothetically, suppose that South Carolina loses its upcoming regular season game to #8 Kentucky, but then wins everything else including the SEC Tournament. Would two "bad losses" (to UConn because of the MOV and to Kentucky as a lower-NET team) knock it off the #1 seeding line in the tournament?

I would think so, provided that none of the other contenders for a #1 seed stumble along the way. And that is despite the quality wins earlier in the SEC season.
 
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So you are suggesting that the Selection Committee criteria of “Head to Head” games has absolutely no bearing on UConn’s seeding vis a vis South Carolina, the defending national champions, despite a 29-point beat down to the Gamecocks on their home court?

Talk about the, “right to be misinformed……”
Here it is, hot off the press - The NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee revealed its top 16 seeds Sunday afternoon. Four hours later the list was ready for the shredder. While UConn's stunning win over South Carolina doesn't change the seed for either team. Apology accepted!
 
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Seems to me that the season is not yet over. Not to mention the conference tournaments.

Is it not possible that a team that might look to be a #1 today could experience another loss or two (or more)? Might addition losses affect their standing? Is it not possible that a team that might look to be a #2 seed could win out all of the remaining games and their conference tournament, beating a whole bunch of top teams in the process and end up a #1?

I think I will just wait and watch the selection show in a month.
 

oldude

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Here it is, hot off the press - The NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee revealed its top 16 seeds Sunday afternoon. Four hours later the list was ready for the shredder. While UConn's stunning win over South Carolina doesn't change the seed for either team. Apology accepted!
You are cherry-picking a comment from ESPN’s WBB pundits, none of whom are on the Selection Committee. But since you want to go that route, please carefully read Charlie Crème’s analysis under the subheading, “The number 1 seeds are still fluid.” Creme makes many of the same points that I have made. UConn is not a number 1 seed yet, but they’ve “closed the gap.” They will need help, but that help may exist. He points out that both USC & UCLA were losing yesterday deep into the 4th qtr. He also confirms my opinion that LSU is no longer in the running for a #1 seed.

While It is pretty tactless to make statements like, “apology accepted,” I would strongly suggest that you withhold such statements until the final and official tournament bracket is announced.
 
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So you are suggesting that the Selection Committee criteria of “Head to Head” games has absolutely no bearing on UConn’s seeding vis a vis South Carolina, the defending national champions, despite a 29-point beat down to the Gamecocks on their home court?

Talk about the, “right to be misinformed……”
You would flunk high school debate. There is an ocean of space between "absolutely no bearing" and "absolutely determinative".
 

oldude

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You would flunk high school debate. There is an ocean of space between "absolutely no bearing" and "absolutely determinative".
I love how folks jump in here with a non-sequitur that has little relationship to the original discussion. For the record, my sarcastic use of the term “absolutely no bearing” relates to my being described as misinformed for suggesting that “head to head” competition, a factor confirmed to be part of the NCAA Selection Committee’s criteria, did in fact have a bearing on their selections.
 
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I love how folks jump in here with a non-sequitur that has little relationship to the original discussion. For the record, my sarcastic use of the term “absolutely no bearing” relates to my being described as misinformed for suggesting that “head to head” competition, a factor confirmed to be part of the NCAA Selection Committee’s criteria, did in fact have a bearing on their selections.
You didn't just suggest that head to head competition has "a bearing" (which of course it does). You stated emphatically that it trumps everything else. Where do you see that in the Selection Committee's criteria?
 
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