NCAA second seeding reveal | Page 2 | The Boneyard

NCAA second seeding reveal

The ND loss, the LSU loss in OT and TX escaping their own upset continues to demonstrate what I and others have been talking about, that there’s still a lot of basketball to be played and it’s highly likely that there will be more changes to the brackets and seeding leading up to the final selection committee choices.

Of all the top teams, UConn is the least likely to lose either Sunday in the last regular season game or in the conference tournament. That fact along with the potential upset of teams still ahead of UConn does open the door to a potential #1 seed for the Huskies. Before I get a lot of flak for that remark, let me emphasize the word “potential.”
 
oldude said:
The ND loss, the LSU loss in OT and TX escaping their own upset continues to demonstrate what I and others have been talking about, that there’s still a lot of basketball to be played and it’s highly likely that there will be more changes to the brackets and seeding leading up to the final selection committee choices.

Of all the top teams, UConn is the least likely to lose either Sunday in the last regular season game or in the conference tournament. That fact along with the potential upset of teams still ahead of UConn does open the door to a potential #1 seed for the Huskies. Before I get a lot of flak for that remark, let me emphasize the word “potential.”
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Unless one of the top 4 loses in an early round in their conference tournament, I believe UConn is destined for a #2 seed. The top #2 seed is just about the same as the worst #1 seed. No matter which #2 seed we get, I think our best chance to get to the F4 is to be matched with USC.
 
Bald Husky said:
Unless one of the top 4 loses in an early round in their conference tournament, I believe UConn is destined for a #2 seed. The top #2 seed is just about the same as the worst #1 seed. No matter which #2 seed we get, I think our best chance to get to the F4 is to be matched with USC.
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You may be correct. But after the events of last night, it is clear there is a very real possibility that one or more top teams lose in the early rounds of their conference tournament. Again, I used the word “potential” to assess the possibility that UConn could earn a #1 seed.

Every top team, including UConn, is flawed in one way or another. Therefore, every top team is vulnerable to an upset.
 
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It will be interesting to see what CC posts later this morning with his bracketology update. Here's a comment from Talia Goodman:

 
jaydee602 said:
Notre Dame just lost to 24th ranked Florida State by 5 points.
Does this open the door for UCONN to be a #1 seed?
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I say yes but not yet. The regular season may be drawing to a close, but the conference tournaments, particularly the SEC and Big10 could make a big difference. Every team ahead of us, and LSU behind us, has a greater chance of losing in their tournament than we do. I figure because of the conference strength, the winners of the SEC and Big10 tournaments gets two of the number 1 seeds.

But if you don't win your conference tournament, and don't come that close, I don't think a top seed is guaranteed for any of South Carolina, Texas, and LSU in the SEC, USC or UCLA in the Big10, or Notre Dame in the ACC . By definition one of the top 3 in the SEC won't even make it to their conference final. Is the third or fourth finisher in that tournament still ahead of us? If Notre Dame got upset by say NC State in the ACC tournament, would they still be ahead of us?

I guess in terms of what I will be rooting for, first is for someone to knock out Notre Dame in their tournament, because whoever that might be, their overall resume would probably not move them ahead of Uconn. Next I hope the winners of the top two conferences dominate and secure the top two seeds, but that the other top challengers from those conferences are either eliminated before the finals, or lose badly in the finals.

I still think there is a path to a number 1 seed, but Notre Dame's loss to Florida State while it helps a lot doesn't do it by itself. The bad news is it is out of our control, we don't control our destiny here. Obviously we have to win out to make the other conference tournaments relevant, but some of the teams ahead of us are going to lose again, so I don't think the top line of the brackets can be completed until the big conference tournaments are done.
 
Vowelguy said:
It’s a travesty IMHO that a team tied for the most quad 1 wins (SC) got moved to a 2 seed based on 1 game.
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They didn't lose a game, they got dismantled in that game. If they end up winning the SEC they will move back into the top line but the loss to UConn should prevent them from ever being ahead of UConn in the rankings if UConn doesn't stumble.
 
oldhusky said:
I say yes but not yet. The regular season may be drawing to a close, but the conference tournaments, particularly the SEC and Big10 could make a big difference. Every team ahead of us, and LSU behind us, has a greater chance of losing in their tournament than we do. I figure because of the conference strength, the winners of the SEC and Big10 tournaments gets two of the number 1 seeds.

But if you don't win your conference tournament, and don't come that close, I don't think a top seed is guaranteed for any of South Carolina, Texas, and LSU in the SEC, USC or UCLA in the Big10, or Notre Dame in the ACC . By definition one of the top 3 in the SEC won't even make it to their conference final. Is the third or fourth finisher in that tournament still ahead of us? If Notre Dame got upset by say NC State in the ACC tournament, would they still be ahead of us?

I guess in terms of what I will be rooting for, first is for someone to knock out Notre Dame in their tournament, because whoever that might be, their overall resume would probably not move them ahead of Uconn. Next I hope the winners of the top two conferences dominate and secure the top two seeds, but that the other top challengers from those conferences are either eliminated before the finals, or lose badly in the finals.

I still think there is a path to a number 1 seed, but Notre Dame's loss to Florida State while it helps a lot doesn't do it by itself. The bad news is it is out of our control, we don't control our destiny here. Obviously we have to win out to make the other conference tournaments relevant, but some of the teams ahead of us are going to lose again, so I don't think the top line of the brackets can be completed until the big conference tournaments are done.
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There is no way ND stays a 1 seed. They have 4 losses and none of them are really losses that a one seed should have had. LSU losing was a huge one for UConn since now I don't see a path for LSU to jump them regardless of what they do in the SEC tournament. USC or UCLA will have at least one more loss and Texas or SC is also going to play head to head so one of them and SC would be out with another loss.

But really if you are 4 or 5 it makes no difference since you will play the other on a nuetral court before the FF anyway. UConn really is good enough to run the table but are they consistent enough?
 
JoePgh said:
For UConn, this would probably result in the Sweet 16 and Eight 8 game opponents being exactly the same as last year. I seem to recall that (repetition of prior year match-ups) is one thing that the committee says that it tries to avoid.

@Vowelguy , your viewpoint essentially elevates one criterion (Quad 1 wins) to be the dominant criterion, eclipsing all the others that are listed. Perhaps the committee is giving more weight to bad losses or to NET ranking than you think, or than they have in previous years.
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Exactly this would be just like last year and our easiest path to the final four. I think we beat USC. Then it’s probably two of Texas ,Notre Dame and UCLA in my opinion. We can do this.
 
Independent of seeding, it will be what it will be. Paraphrasing Billy Tubbs (past OU men's coach) "Reporter: What are you concerned about with the other team? Tubbs: I'm concerned with my team." There's still inconsistency in play, one game to the next. You need to win six games for the championship. You need to be consistent. Defensively it's mostly been there. Offensively?

It's hard for me to watch players not using the backboard on shots, especially ones close in. And, put more air/arc under your shots.
 
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Rowdy831 said:
They didn't lose a game, they got dismantled in that game. If they end up winning the SEC they will move back into the top line but the loss to UConn should prevent them from ever being ahead of UConn in the rankings if UConn doesn't stumble.
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So far the 'dismantling' of SC has not put us ahead of SC in seeding, because it's just one game.

It's a long time ago, but SC also dismantled Texas earlier this season and suddenly became invincible. Meanwhile, TX came back and beat SC in the rematch and currently is seeded above SC.

UConn sits in a good spot at #6. TX and UCLA can still absorb losses with not much penalty, but U$C, SC and now ND are all quite vulnerable. ND also now likely won't be ACC champ, and still has to play a hot Louisville team.

Assuming NC St wins the ACC league title, I'll make brave claim that they hang on to that #8 spot that no one else seems to want.;)
 
oldude said:
NC State?
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Yeah, no doubt!
As usual, Wes Moore has NC State playing at their best nearing tournament time. They were actually unranked earlier this season, but he played the long game to get ready for March.
Jeff Walz is using the same strategy. This is NOT the Louisville team that UCONN humiliated in December.
 
When UConn lost two games in a row in February of 2023, stopping another streak that might never be challenged, I felt that with NIL and the transfer portal that no consistently top teams would lose two games in a row. So what happens, the Golden Domers are on a two game losing streak right now. :eek:
 
Centerstream said:
When UConn lost two games in a row in February of 2023, stopping another streak that might never be challenged, I felt that with NIL and the transfer portal that no consistently top teams would lose two games in a row. So what happens, the Golden Domers are on a two game losing streak right now. :eek:
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ND lost 2 in a row earlier this season to TCU and Utah(in Caymans). Third time would be a charm.:D
 
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DEpup said:
The UNC game needs an asterisk since It's Utsby is still out with injury.
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Meh. Are we doing asterisks now? Im sure you could go back through the season and give out asterisks retroactively to quite a few games. Utsby had 11 turnovers.... Yes 11.. In the first matchup, so perhaps her absence actually helped out the holes :rolleyes:
 
packwrap said:
So far the 'dismantling' of SC has not put us ahead of SC in seeding, because it's just one game.

It's a long time ago, but SC also dismantled Texas earlier this season and suddenly became invincible. Meanwhile, TX came back and beat SC in the rematch and currently is seeded above SC.

UConn sits in a good spot at #6. TX and UCLA can still absorb losses with not much penalty, but U$C, SC and now ND are all quite vulnerable. ND also now likely won't be ACC champ, and still has to play a hot Louisville team.

Assuming NC St wins the ACC league title, I'll make brave claim that they hang on to that #8 spot that no one else seems to want.;)
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Not sure about this portion above.

I would tend to believe if UCLA were to be paired with say the 9-17 Northwestern Wildcats team in the first round of their tournament and get beat by a dozen; they would be penalized for that loss. Particularly if they were to lose once again in the regular season to the Trojans.​
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Further, if Texas were to be paired with say the 9-21 Arkansas Razorbacks in the first round of their tournament and get beat by a dozen; they too would be penalized for that loss.​

I also think that there are possibilities that some teams could advance significantly in the seeding; perhaps not all of the way to a #1-Seed, but what would happen if say:

Ohio State were to pair with someone like #23 Michigan State in the second round, and beat the crap out of them. Then go onto play the Trojans and beat up JuJu and Co. by a dozen! And finally, go onto beat down UCLA by a dozen to win the B1G Tournament ... I believe the committee would look at that string of wins in a very favorable way.​
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Point here is that, there is still basketball to be played. It is getting close to the end, but not close enough that definitive predictions on seedings can really be made. Another thing that I hate to even mention but has a potential of happening is a major injury. This is about the time of the season when last year Elizabeth Kitley tore an ACL. Va Tech immediately went from a potential Final Four team to, well, not a final four team. Seems like the year prior, Olivia Miles went down very late into the season. Knock on wood! We've experienced our share of that, and it is dreadful when it happens. But the fact is that no team is exempt from that possibility, including those five who are currently higher seeds than UConn.
 
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Rowdy831 said:
There is no way ND stays a 1 seed. They have 4 losses and none of them are really losses that a one seed should have had. LSU losing was a huge one for UConn since now I don't see a path for LSU to jump them regardless of what they do in the SEC tournament. USC or UCLA will have at least one more loss and Texas or SC is also going to play head to head so one of them and SC would be out with another loss.

But really if you are 4 or 5 it makes no difference since you will play the other on a nuetral court before the FF anyway. UConn really is good enough to run the table but are they consistent enough?
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To be fair, ND has 3 great wins (UConn, Texas -both at home and At SoCal) vs. our 1 great win over SC. They also have a really bad loss to Utah, a bad loss with Florida State at home and neutral site loss to TCU. The away loss to NC State isn't as bad as it appears. so do their wins outshine their losses?

That said, how will committee assess ND vs. UConn? My guess is they may view "trending" more important than the ND victory at home over us. So we could leap frog ND but that still leaves us behind UCLA, SoCal, Texas and SCar. We need one more quasi bad loss by SCar or SoCal. In my view both Texas and UCLA have strong enough resume's to sustain a quasi bad loss and still stay ahead of us.

But yes, we are in the hunt for #1 seed. How important is it, not much. We need to play well against good teams which we've proven 1 time out of 4 this year (but boy was that 1 time great!).
 
DefenseBB said:
To be fair, ND has 3 great wins (UConn, Texas -both at home and At SoCal) vs. our 1 great win over SC. They also have a really bad loss to Utah, a bad loss with Florida State at home and neutral site loss to TCU. The away loss to NC State isn't as bad as it appears. so do their wins outshine their losses?

That said, how will committee assess ND vs. UConn? My guess is they may view "trending" more important than the ND victory at home over us. So we could leap frog ND but that still leaves us behind UCLA, SoCal, Texas and SCar. We need one more quasi bad loss by SCar or SoCal. In my view both Texas and UCLA have strong enough resume's to sustain a quasi bad loss and still stay ahead of us.

But yes, we are in the hunt for #1 seed. How important is it, not much. We need to play well against good teams which we've proven 1 time out of 4 this year (but boy was that 1 time great!).
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Florida State is a Quad 1 team
 
oldude said:
The ND loss, the LSU loss in OT and TX escaping their own upset continues to demonstrate what I and others have been talking about, that there’s still a lot of basketball to be played and it’s highly likely that there will be more changes to the brackets and seeding leading up to the final selection committee choices.

Of all the top teams, UConn is the least likely to lose either Sunday in the last regular season game or in the conference tournament. That fact along with the potential upset of teams still ahead of UConn does open the door to a potential #1 seed for the Huskies. Before I get a lot of flak for that remark, let me emphasize the word “potential.”
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Before you rewrite history on you getting flak, the issue was when we beat SCar, you stated "at a minimum we went ahead of SC". Which many of us pointed out, "No, we did not leapfrog SC" and last night's reveal proved just that-SC's resume is still better than ours. Could we still achieve a #1 seed, yes we could, will we? Probably not but at least now there is slight possibility. Ultimately your issue seems to be a refusal on acknowledging how the committee actually works vs. how YOU want it to work. Nothing about last night's reveal suggests you are right. It merely suggests due to bad losses by others, we are back in the conversation.
 
HuskyNan said:
Florida State is a Quad 1 team
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Yes, it is and despite that the comments this morning from Creme and others put the ND seeding in jeopardy as it still isn't a great loss at home.
The issue as I point out is how their losses compare to their wins and how all the other teams losses compare to their wins. Also the timing (how well is a team playing) comes into the fray. Losing 2 games of you last however many, needs to hold up against what the other contenders are doing.

@oldude is right that our path to a Tourney title and strong finish is significantly better than the others but will the others have any questionable losses. Probably not.
 
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