NBA Playoffs

[intlzncster]

Chris Paul

Their stats are mostly quite close. Basically the same amount of points and steals. But Paul shot the ball significantly better (and this is regular FG% not eFG% so Paul is actually penalized by taking more lower % 3-pointers) from the field and line, grabbed half a rebound more per game, assisted on half a shot more per game, and committed markedly fewer turnovers. Once again, there is no area that Thomas surpassed Paul.

That 42% shooting from Zeke is pretty atrocious.

@superjohn @intlzncster @Yardigan @Mr. French

Is it easy to get all these numbers from an era adjusted standpoint? I'd be curious.

 

[superjohn]

I never liked Zeke at all either...he was the 'enemy', but to say Chris Paul is anywhere near as good a playoff performer...not sure how one does that....

It's more understandable if you never watched the games and are just relying on numbers you read on a computer screen.

 

[auror]

Is it easy to get all these numbers from an era adjusted standpoint? I'd be curious.

No, I don't think so. Kevin Pelton did an article (ESPN Insider unfortunately don't have access anymore) about adjusting for era that basically amounted to the current era being 12% tougher than Jordan's era. However, Jordan's era was actually slightly weaker than the previous era due to the expansion teams. I'd guess this current era is only slightly tougher than Isiah's era. Most of the current era advantage comes from the widening talent pool due to internationals. Only one person's crack at it anyways, but would favor Paul.

If you just mean to adjust for pace of the league and not league quality, the league was faster in the 80s, so Isiah's rate stats would be a bit inflated if we compared both player's stats to league average. Modern era is starting to creep back up, but early Paul's career was pretty slow.

 

[Rocktheworld]

It's more understandable if you never watched the games and are just relying on numbers you read on a computer screen.

Statistical facts don't care about your feelings

 

[superjohn]

Statistical facts don't care about your feelings

Says another guy who never watched the games. Isiah was facing all-time teams in the Celtics, Bulls, and Lakers in Eastern Conference finals and the finals. Paul was losing in the first and second round to Memphis, Houston, and Utah.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Says another guy who never watched the games.

Saying it over and over again makes it no less fallacious

Isiah was facing all-time teams in the Celtics, Bulls, and Lakers in Eastern Conference finals and the finals. Paul was losing in the first and second round to Memphis, Houston, and Utah.

Are you purposely ignoring the "clinching game" stats that have been posted?

 

[superjohn]

Saying it over and over again makes it no less facile


Are you purposely ignoring the "clinching game" stats that have been posted?

Are you purposely ignoring you never watched Thomas play and that Thomas was playing way better teams and won multiple championships?

 

[auror]

Saying it over and over again makes it no less fallacious

Are you purposely ignoring the "clinching game" stats that have been posted?

He's trying blatantly to ignore the fact that the larger worldwide player pool, increased interest, more resources, better/more coaching and training, and yes the influence of statistics on strategy have actually led to a higher quality of basketball in the modern "LeBron era". And that very good teams existed in all eras, and that, for example, Paul beat the Spurs and the Warriors.

Of course the best way to compare across eras is to use the in-era subjective awards, given out by those who, you know, watched the games closer than he did. But those show that in the years the Pistons won their championships, Joe Dumars made an All-NBA (and then the next year, too), but Thomas didn't make any of the teams. But that undermines his whole idea that Thomas beat all these incredible teams by himself since winning a playoff series is an individual accomplishment.. Plus, Paul has him handily beat in the awards area anyways so he'll ignore that, too.

 

[superjohn]

He's trying blatantly to ignore the fact that the larger worldwide player pool, increased interest, more resources, better/more coaching and training, and yes the influence of statistics on strategy have actually led to a higher quality of basketball in the modern "LeBron era". And that very good teams existed in all eras, and that, for example, Paul beat the Spurs and the Warriors.

Of course the best way to compare across eras is to use the in-era subjective awards, given out by those who, you know, watched the games closer than he did. But those show that in the years the Pistons won their championships, Joe Dumars made an All-NBA (and then the next year, too), but Thomas didn't make any of the teams. But that undermines his whole idea that Thomas beat all these incredible teams by himself since winning a playoff series is an individual accomplishment.. Plus, Paul has him handily beat in the awards area anyways so he'll ignore that, too.

Wow, just wow. I'm checking out.

I'll leave you and veggie boy to talk about how players are better than other players you've never seen play.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I understand the Process.

OT Sam Hinkie

But if you look at the chart in that post, you see the expected value of top 5 picks. It's massively higher than any other place. You want to get more whacks, but specifically whacks in the top 5. The Celtics need marginal improvement upon already elite players, not just solid rotation players.

NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick
A top 5 pick gives you a 60% chance at a star.

Of the 5 first round picks they have the next couple years, 2 of them have a chance to be in the top 5. My suggestion was to trade 1 of those potentials (and remember none are guaranteed to land there, just look at the Brooklyn pick which will likely be #8) plus a couple weaker firsts for a guaranteed top 5 this year. As it is, pick #30 for the next couple years for the Celtics will give a 5%/10% chance of star/solid rotation piece, which will be their own pick range for the forseeable future. Almost worthless.

As an aside, it's way too early to say Fultz/Lonzo are busts. You did add a qualifier about so far, but these guys are so young. Tatum/Mitchell are the anomalies, not those 2. Lonzo's numbers aren't that far off from Kemba's rookie year. And just look at Embiid. You can miss your rookie (and sophomore!) years and still be great.

Hold your evaluation on Embid - hopefully he’s great as he was /showed this year but he’s an average pick so far having played a little over 1 full season in 4yrs since he’s been drafted. He’s always been rewarded more for what he could be than what he is.

Equallly funny in same thread people worried about Irving’s injury where he’s won a championship and played prob 4-5 times the nba games.

I just think on draft picks the Celtics have the top guys in Irving & Hayward coming back & given what Stevens has done with far less that should be plenty. They’ve done well with Baynes & Theis (even Monroe to lesser extent) pickups, so pretty reasonable to expect a good PFC free agent pickup in future if that’s their one missing piece.

= don’t trade assets or picks.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Wow, just wow. I'm checking out.

I'll leave you and veggie boy to talk about how players are better than other players you've never seen play.

lol peace, welcher

 

[Mr. French]

@auror much respect for all the facts, no problems here with the argument.

I’m admittedly weighing heavily on my own eyes and subjectivity making the call that Paul doesn’t stack up, while acknowledging the idea that he’s been a great PG and arguably, as you’ve done well, an all-time great with perhaps variables accounting for his relative lack of team success.

 

[auror]

Hold your evaluation on Embid - hopefully he’s great as he was /showed this year but he’s an average pick so far having played a little over 1 full season in 4yrs since he’s been drafted. He’s always been rewarded more for what he could be than what he is.

Embiid is going to be 2nd or 3rd team All NBA and All Defense (probably 2nd team) this year. That's already "great" in my book, but I guess it's fair to say he needs to do it a couple times to call it a great pick.

The average pick comment made me curious where Embiid actually ranks compared to the other recent #3 picks in their first 4 years by VORP even missing a few years?

2017 Jayson Tatum, Duke – Boston Celtics - 1.8 + 3 years
2016 Jaylen Brown, California – Boston Celtics - 0.3 + 2 years
2015 Jahlil Okafor, Duke – Philadelphia 76ers - -1.4 + 1 year
2014 Joel Embiid, Kansas – Philadelphia 76ers - 3.2
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards - 6.3
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards - 3.3
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz - -1.7
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets - 3.2

Ironically, Tatum is probably the best of all those players, but he's played exactly as many full seasons as Embiid. Porter leading surprised me. I knew they paid him and he shot efficiently, but the 3.9 he put up in his 4th year is literally better than the 4 year spans of everyone else, including his teammate Beal who I think is better.

 

[champs99and04]

How old are you @superjohn ? I thought I'd read somewhere in your 30's and Isaiah won his second championship nearly 30 years ago. Not trying to discredit your opinion because I do think it's tough to comment on guys you never saw play, just wondering how locked in you could have been at like 8.

 

[MadDogRevival]

How old are you @superjohn ? . . . just wondering how locked in you could have been at like 8.

Please. You're talking about SuperJohn here. Our resident board Supra-Genius. Recognized for his excellence in posting for 15 years running with the ACME "Power Poster" award, not to mention a half dozen Sr. T commendations.
This guy was a child prodigy. He helped Al Gore invent the internet specifically in anticipation of attaining his current unassailable, exalted status here as board patriarch.
Once, him, Fishy, BigErn, and Chief00 had a WWE free-for-all match and he resisted, in order, the Flying Fish Throat Punch, the Big E Rant til you Crap your Pants, and the Chief00 Oblivious Tomahawk empty auditorium monologue, pinned all three and then had s3x with Vince McMahon's daughter.
This is SuperJohn we're talking about here, not that guy with the jerry curl avatar and camel font and JayNyC in his name that used to always try to sell us the Knick's most recent false resurrection.
This. is. SuperJohn. Say that like "This. Is. Sparta," because that's the proper way to address our grand Pu-bah.
Show some respect!

 

[MadDogRevival]

Durant's line tonight . . . 10 for 15 from 2, 3 for 7 from 3, 3 boards, 0 assists, 5 turnovers, 5 fouls, no blocks, no steals, in 35 minutes, -28. They lost by 22. Ouch.
All 4 other starters and 3 bench guys had at least 1 assist.

 

[superjohn]

How old are you @superjohn ? I thought I'd read somewhere in your 30's and Isaiah won his second championship nearly 30 years ago. Not trying to discredit your opinion because I do think it's tough to comment on guys you never saw play, just wondering how locked in you could have been at like 8.

I was 10 and 11 and remember it really well, I can remember everything about those games. Same age as I was when Tate hit the shot in the dream season. I remember what I ate that night, I remember crying my eyes out when they blew the lead and then going crazy when the miracle happened. I remember every little detail about our next game as well. I remember being so incredibly mad that Tate couldn't just hold on to the ball to end the game and I remember being devastated beyond belief when Laettner hit the shot but not crying because my dad and older brother told me they never want to see me cry again over a game.

I understand the nuances of the game better now from experience but I was never as locked in as I was as a kid. I used to know pretty much every inane detail about most of the players in the league down to what town they were from and what high school they went to.

 

[superjohn]

Please. You're talking about SuperJohn here. Our resident board Supra-Genius. Recognized for his excellence in posting for 15 years running with the ACME "Power Poster" award, not to mention a half dozen Sr. T commendations.
This guy was a child prodigy. He helped Al Gore invent the internet specifically in anticipation of attaining his current unassailable, exalted status here as board patriarch.
Once, him, Fishy, BigErn, and Chief00 had a WWE free-for-all match and he resisted, in order, the Flying Fish Throat Punch, the Big E Rant til you Crap your Pants, and the Chief00 Oblivious Tomahawk empty auditorium monologue, pinned all three and then had s3x with Vince McMahon's daughter.
This is SuperJohn we're talking about here, not that guy with the jerry curl avatar and camel font and JayNyC in his name that used to always try to sell us the Knick's most recent false resurrection.
This. is. SuperJohn. Say that like "This. Is. Sparta," because that's the proper way to address our grand Pu-bah.
Show some respect!

Met Vince McMahon several times but never had s3x with his daughter. I remember seeing his ridiculous hot pink Excalibur car for the first time as a kid, dude was always over the top.

 

[HuskyHawk]

So, the invincible Warriors are 1-1 with Houston, and got crushed. The unworthy of even being there Celtics, are 2-0 and did it by weathering a triple double from Lebron and a bad shooting night for them. Everybody still predicting a sweep?

I hate to even bring this up, because it's almost unthinkable, but if Houston can somehow win this series, Boston could actually win the next one. Amazing.

 

[Husky25]

This lay off is for the birds. Lebron's ego (and shoulder) are getting 4 days between game 2 and 3. Apparently, the NBA was expecting players to ride bicycles to Cleveland?

 

[the Q]

Embiid is going to be 2nd or 3rd team All NBA and All Defense (probably 2nd team) this year. That's already "great" in my book, but I guess it's fair to say he needs to do it a couple times to call it a great pick.

The average pick comment made me curious where Embiid actually ranks compared to the other recent #3 picks in their first 4 years by VORP even missing a few years?

2017 Jayson Tatum, Duke – Boston Celtics - 1.8 + 3 years
2016 Jaylen Brown, California – Boston Celtics - 0.3 + 2 years
2015 Jahlil Okafor, Duke – Philadelphia 76ers - -1.4 + 1 year
2014 Joel Embiid, Kansas – Philadelphia 76ers - 3.2
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards - 6.3
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards - 3.3
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz - -1.7
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets - 3.2

Ironically, Tatum is probably the best of all those players, but he's played exactly as many full seasons as Embiid. Porter leading surprised me. I knew they paid him and he shot efficiently, but the 3.9 he put up in his 4th year is literally better than the 4 year spans of everyone else, including his teammate Beal who I think is better.

Just to put the Tatum/Hayward talk into perspective.....Hayward was a 4.0 last year for the Jazz.

 

[intlzncster]

So, the invincible Warriors are 1-1 with Houston, and got crushed. The unworthy of even being there Celtics, are 2-0 and did it by weathering a triple double from Lebron and a bad shooting night for them. Everybody still predicting a sweep?

I hate to even bring this up, because it's almost unthinkable, but if Houston can somehow win this series, Boston could actually win the next one. Amazing.

Still sticking with my Warriors in 5 call. haha

 

[The X Man]

This lay off is for the birds. Lebron's ego (and shoulder) are getting 4 days between game 2 and 3. Apparently, the NBA was expecting players to ride bicycles to Cleveland?

They need to space it out because The Finals are locked into starting on 5/31 .

 

[MadDogRevival]

This lay off is for the birds. Lebron's ego (and shoulder) are getting 4 days between game 2 and 3.

I know travel is not meaningless, but, really, with the charters and personal chefs, isn't one "travel day" enough?
Money money.
Certainly makes it a bit tougher for me to maintain interest. OTOH, I'll be watching . . .

 

[Husky25]

They need to space it out because The Finals are locked into starting on 5/31 .

Mutually exclusive. Poor justification does not mean the layoff is any less for the birds.

 

[UConnStats]

Paul's assist to turnover is way better and he shoots like 3% better on field goals and is a better ft shooter but shoots way less of them than Paul, so that cancels out Westbrook however averages way more points and gets double the rebounds Paul gets. I don't like Westbrook but it's pretty silly to say Paul's stats are a lot better when they're not. Westbrook obviously is a way more high risk player but with that comes the reward, he averaged a triple double the past two seasons. Paul's assist turnover rate and shooting percentage is also better than his teammate Harden. You think he's better than him too? I don't like Westbrook or Harden but you're not going to find many people who think Chris Paul is better than them right now.

My take here: I would take Paul over Westbrook. Chris Paul had more win shares this year and played 22 fewer games. Harden is the best of the three at this point IMO (he was last year too), as he is close to as efficient offensively while being the highest usage player in the NBA. Paul is 32 years old, and I'm not sure how many more years he'll have at this level, but him never being on a championship super team in the West is basically his only big drawback (he still has a better shot at than than Westbrook likely ever will). He's one of the best ever to do it. Westbrook shoots way too much, and as much as he can take over, he can also dig his team into deep holes too. The triple doubles will always be his calling card, but he's not on Paul, Harden, Curry, or (prime) Wade's level in terms of guards he's played against IMO.

 

[The X Man]

Mutually exclusive. Poor justification does not mean the layoff is any less for the birds.

I agree. But as long as they have a fixed date for the finals and the previous round's longest series was 5 games we're going to have these layoffs. Heck if the Celtics sweep they will have 10 days off.

 

[Husky25]

I agree. But as long as they have a fixed date for the finals and the previous round's longest series was 5 games we're going to have these layoffs. Heck if the Celtics sweep they will have 10 days off.

Game 1 was on Sunday. Game 3 is on Saturday. That is 5 full days. Why was Game 2 on the 2nd day? It could have been last night.

Same thing goes the West. Game 1 was on Monday. Game 3 is on Sunday. Game 2 should have been tonight.

 

[donyell34]

Game 3 in the West just got way more exciting for sure.

 

[tzznandrew]

Game 3 in the West just got way more exciting for sure.

All the Warriors needed to do was to take 1 from Houston in Houston. We'll see if Houston can return the favor, but it's likely going to be 3-1 going back to Houston...