NBA Playoffs

[superjohn]

I've grown to feel the same way about Harden, which is weird because I was his biggest fan when he was in OKC and for his first couple years in Houston. I honestly think it's more a case where his personality seeps into his game. There's just a depressing vibe with him and CP3 no matter how much they win. They're really only missing Dwight Howard.

Great players but I've never liked watching either one, it's strange.

 

[auror]

The Hinkie thing is playing the odds that you need as many picks as possible b/c some of them won't succeed. Just look at last year's draft: Fultz is a massive bust so far, Lonzo over-rated, Monk, Fox, Isaac & Nkitina also look over rated and picked too high. The draft is a crapshoot and the fact that the Celtics seemingly picked perfectly with Tatum & Brown and to lesser extent Rozier & Smart probably indicates that they are in for some regression to the random, unlucky mean. Every year there are a couple of guys drafted in the lottery that don't pan out and I truly think the Celtics can look at their 2019 or 20 picks right now and map out a decade of dominance rather than convince themselves they've got a short window. Their owners will pay the luxury tax when the time comes.

I understand the Process.

OT Sam Hinkie

But if you look at the chart in that post, you see the expected value of top 5 picks. It's massively higher than any other place. You want to get more whacks, but specifically whacks in the top 5. The Celtics need marginal improvement upon already elite players, not just solid rotation players.

NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick
A top 5 pick gives you a 60% chance at a star.

Of the 5 first round picks they have the next couple years, 2 of them have a chance to be in the top 5. My suggestion was to trade 1 of those potentials (and remember none are guaranteed to land there, just look at the Brooklyn pick which will likely be #8) plus a couple weaker firsts for a guaranteed top 5 this year. As it is, pick #30 for the next couple years for the Celtics will give a 5%/10% chance of star/solid rotation piece, which will be their own pick range for the forseeable future. Almost worthless.

As an aside, it's way too early to say Fultz/Lonzo are busts. You did add a qualifier about so far, but these guys are so young. Tatum/Mitchell are the anomalies, not those 2. Lonzo's numbers aren't that far off from Kemba's rookie year. And just look at Embiid. You can miss your rookie (and sophomore!) years and still be great.

 

[Lefty2one]

Well said....was trying to figure out why I don't enjoy Harden's game more but, ..."depressing vibe" hits the nail on the head....same with CP3

Although he's gotten better the last couple years he still plays the game like a and it feels cheap. Originally he was a terrible flopper, one of the worst in the NBA. After that he went through a phase of going out of his way to try to draw fouls. I remember in 2015 he'd routinely have an open lane to the hoop and would veer out of that path so he could find a defender to jump into to draw a foul. He'd pass up an open layup to try to draw a foul; it was ridiculous. Refs eventually stopped calling it and he looked like a fool for a stretch in the 2015 WCF.

Refs have gotten a little better too but the league still lets offensive players get away with initiating way too much contact (plus calling foul on the D for it instead of a no-call). It's amazing any team can play defense in today's league between the offensive players getting away with murder when it comes to initiating contact, traveling and carries are never called, and I don't think a legal screen has been set in the NBA in 20 years.

Great players but I've never liked watching either one, it's strange.

CP3 is basically the point guard version of Tim Duncan sans the rings. He's never been that exciting to watch IMO.

 

[auror]

CP3 is basically the point guard version of Tim Duncan sans the rings. He's never been that exciting to watch IMO.

Except he whines like a kid with affluenza and cheap shots like Brad Marchand, which is the insufferable part.

TD did do the bug-eye ref thing, but he was mostly so much more chill than CP3 (and an infinitely better teammate off the court as the rumors say).

 

[husky429]

Hard for me to knock CP3. Class act off the court, intelligent guy, and top 5 PG of all time.

As a coach, his fundamentals and footwork and vision are juat picture perfect

 

[auror]

I would trade Irving in the offseason if I was the Celtics. This is going to be Brown's and Tatum's team going forward, and Rozier is going to be expensive to resign at the end of next season. Irving is not part of the long-term plan, and they can get a lot of value for him right now.

You're essentially forced to trade 1 of Irving, Rozier, or Smart. The timing of Smart's contract coming up first might mean they re-sign him, especially if they decide to keep Irving, because he's the better defensive complement. Rozier has a year left on rookie deal and then restricted matching control that will be super coveted.

I would keep Irving because elite talent, especially 1v1 creating, will be needed in the Finals. He's also only 2 years older than Rozier, only 26. Rozier might get to 80-90% of Irving, but that 10-20% marginal difference is the most expensive and most coveted thing in basketball. Plus with Ainge's track record and Stevens PG friendly system and development, I'd trust them to groom a replacement on the rookie scale or cheap FA. You'll have Smart to handle some minutes at PG anyways during development.

So I'd trade Rozier for a pick and/or someone with another year on a cheap contract (like they did with Bradley to Marcus Morris), possibly a PG entering year 2 or 3 like Tyler Ulis + pick (have heard Phoenix rumbled as a Rozier destination). If they don't get a PG in return, they could try to sign someone in FA (dare I say Shabazz Napier would fit very well in the Shane Larkin role and would probably love to come to Boston????!!?? Also Jeremy Lin for same reasons) assuming their cap status allows it, if not then someone with their late 1st.

 

[intlzncster]

I understand the Process.

OT Sam Hinkie

But if you look at the chart in that post, you see the expected value of top 5 picks. It's massively higher than any other place. You want to get more whacks, but specifically whacks in the top 5. The Celtics need marginal improvement upon already elite players, not just solid rotation players.

NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick
A top 5 pick gives you a 60% chance at a star.

Of the 5 first round picks they have the next couple years, 2 of them have a chance to be in the top 5. My suggestion was to trade 1 of those potentials (and remember none are guaranteed to land there, just look at the Brooklyn pick which will likely be #8) plus a couple weaker firsts for a guaranteed top 5 this year. As it is, pick #30 for the next couple years for the Celtics will give a 5%/10% chance of star/solid rotation piece, which will be their own pick range for the forseeable future. Almost worthless.

As an aside, it's way too early to say Fultz/Lonzo are busts. You did add a qualifier about so far, but these guys are so young. Tatum/Mitchell are the anomalies, not those 2. Lonzo's numbers aren't that far off from Kemba's rookie year. And just look at Embiid. You can miss your rookie (and sophomore!) years and still be great.

These and the points you made previously are spot on. 5 picks in the #20 area are worth way less than a top 5 pick. 1 player can affect a team so much.

Whereas in the NFL, you'd be a fool to take the Top 5 pick over the 5 late 1st rounders.

Still, accumulating assets usually helps, especially those which the potential to convey into high picks.

 

[the Q]

I understand the Process.

OT Sam Hinkie

But if you look at the chart in that post, you see the expected value of top 5 picks. It's massively higher than any other place. You want to get more whacks, but specifically whacks in the top 5. The Celtics need marginal improvement upon already elite players, not just solid rotation players.

NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick
A top 5 pick gives you a 60% chance at a star.

Of the 5 first round picks they have the next couple years, 2 of them have a chance to be in the top 5. My suggestion was to trade 1 of those potentials (and remember none are guaranteed to land there, just look at the Brooklyn pick which will likely be #8) plus a couple weaker firsts for a guaranteed top 5 this year. As it is, pick #30 for the next couple years for the Celtics will give a 5%/10% chance of star/solid rotation piece, which will be their own pick range for the forseeable future. Almost worthless.

As an aside, it's way too early to say Fultz/Lonzo are busts. You did add a qualifier about so far, but these guys are so young. Tatum/Mitchell are the anomalies, not those 2. Lonzo's numbers aren't that far off from Kemba's rookie year. And just look at Embiid. You can miss your rookie (and sophomore!) years and still be great.

Not to mention this is easily the best top 5 since 2003.

Michael Porter going 8th just shows how absurd this draft is (plus his medical issue, but still...the depth is insane).

 

[the Q]

You're essentially forced to trade 1 of Irving, Rozier, or Smart. The timing of Smart's contract coming up first might mean they re-sign him, especially if they decide to keep Irving, because he's the better defensive complement. Rozier has a year left on rookie deal and then restricted matching control that will be super coveted.

I would keep Irving because elite talent, especially 1v1 creating, will be needed in the Finals. He's also only 2 years older than Rozier, only 26. Rozier might get to 80-90% of Irving, but that 10-20% marginal difference is the most expensive and most coveted thing in basketball. Plus with Ainge's track record and Stevens PG friendly system and development, I'd trust them to groom a replacement on the rookie scale or cheap FA. You'll have Smart to handle some minutes at PG anyways during development.

So I'd trade Rozier for a pick and/or someone with another year on a cheap contract (like they did with Bradley to Marcus Morris), possibly a PG entering year 2 or 3 like Tyler Ulis + pick (have heard Phoenix rumbled as a Rozier destination). If they don't get a PG in return, they could try to sign someone in FA (dare I say Shabazz Napier would fit very well in the Shane Larkin role and would probably love to come to Boston????!!?? Also Jeremy Lin for same reasons) assuming their cap status allows it, if not then someone with their late 1st.

I'd love to land Bazz for the MLE.

Phoenix getting hosed in the lottery would make a trade for Rozier far easier to make.

 

[the Q]

It's a fair point, but then again, there is a reason he took less money (although I'm not sure how endorsements, taxes, etc. change his overall income). I don't think the "fans will never be happy" narrative is applicable when you have the second best player in the world joining a 73 win team, but technically you're right. You're never going to please everyone and I don't think anyone has ever suggested he not do what's in his best interest. On a micro level, always do what makes you happy. Again I like Durant but I see why it irks people.

I do think increased player movement has been a big plus for the NBA in the long-run, though. LeBron has played his cards perfectly IMO. He's never won a title without winning a tightly-contested game 7 somewhere along the way. That's great for drama.

Of course, if a team like Golden State pushes Boston or Philly to another level, that can be good, too. There is something to be said for the fact that you kind of have to choose between parity and stacked teams. The knock on the NBA in the Billups/Hamilton Pistons days was always that there wasn't enough star power and that the league wasn't exciting without stars. I thought what we saw two years ago in the playoffs was closer to optimal than this year or last year, but it's not going to ever be perfect.

It's funny you mentioned the Pistons and increased player movement.

The NBA's laughably short-sighted move to basically end sign and trades has only hurt these smaller market teams. The pistons only have a title because of a S&T. And you don't think teams like OKC wouldn't be better off with 2 or 3 firsts in their hand rather than lose KD for nothing?

 

[intlzncster]

You're essentially forced to trade 1 of Irving, Rozier, or Smart. The timing of Smart's contract coming up first might mean they re-sign him, especially if they decide to keep Irving, because he's the better defensive complement. Rozier has a year left on rookie deal and then restricted matching control that will be super coveted.

I would keep Irving because elite talent, especially 1v1 creating, will be needed in the Finals. He's also only 2 years older than Rozier, only 26. Rozier might get to 80-90% of Irving, but that 10-20% marginal difference is the most expensive and most coveted thing in basketball. Plus with Ainge's track record and Stevens PG friendly system and development, I'd trust them to groom a replacement on the rookie scale or cheap FA. You'll have Smart to handle some minutes at PG anyways during development.

So I'd trade Rozier for a pick and/or someone with another year on a cheap contract (like they did with Bradley to Marcus Morris), possibly a PG entering year 2 or 3 like Tyler Ulis + pick (have heard Phoenix rumbled as a Rozier destination). If they don't get a PG in return, they could try to sign someone in FA (dare I say Shabazz Napier would fit very well in the Shane Larkin role and would probably love to come to Boston????!!?? Also Jeremy Lin for same reasons) assuming their cap status allows it, if not then someone with their late 1st.

All that is good stuff, but I don't see Tyler Ulis as the type of guy Ainge is looking for at this point. Doesn't fit the mold from a physical standpoint.

 

[auror]

All that is good stuff, but I don't see Tyler Ulis as the type of guy Ainge is looking for at this point. Doesn't fit the mold from a physical standpoint.

He's the Shane Larkin bench PG, basically 10th man. Not the future, just a stopgap. You have Irving/Smart/Ulis for PG minutes. Brown/Smart/Ojeleye at the 2. Tatum/Hayward/Ojeleye at the 3. Horford/Morris/Tatum at the 4. Theis/the rookie I want them to draft/Horford at the 5.

He can't really play D, but will be playing against bench units. He can pass and is smart. Plus he has 2 years left on his rookie deal. I did think he could shoot the 3 better than he does, though, so maybe you're right.

 

[superjohn]

Hard for me to knock CP3. Class act off the court, intelligent guy, and top 5 PG of all time.

As a coach, his fundamentals and footwork and vision are juat picture perfect

Top 5 point guard? Can't see how you can put him ahead of Magic, Oscar, West, Curry, and Zeke. Then you have guys like Stockton, Kidd, Nash...

 

[auror]

Top 5 point guard? Can't see how you can put him ahead of Magic, Oscar, West, Curry, and Zeke. Then you have guys like Stockton, Kidd, Nash...

Chris Paul has the highest Win Shares/48 of any player of all time.

The next 4 from 60's onwards is
2. Michael Jordan* .2505
3. David Robinson* .2502
4. Wilt Chamberlain* .2480
6. LeBron James .2377

 

[the Q]

Chris Paul has the highest Win Shares/48 of any player of all time.

The next 4 from 60's onwards is
2. Michael Jordan* .2505
3. David Robinson* .2502
4. Wilt Chamberlain* .2480
6. LeBron James .2377

I'm baffled how much people overrate team success when trying to judge individuals.

 

[superjohn]

Chris Paul has the highest Win Shares/48 of any player of all time.

The next 4 from 60's onwards is
2. Michael Jordan* .2505
3. David Robinson* .2502
4. Wilt Chamberlain* .2480
6. LeBron James .2377

That's exciting. Do you put him ahead of Magic, Zeke, Oscar, Curry or West?

 

[auror]

That's exciting. Do you put him ahead of Magic, Zeke, Oscar, Curry or West?

Zeke..

 

[nomar]

Cavs are 17-1 in their last 18 games reffed by Mike Callahan, including 6 straight playoff wins.

Guess who's reffing tonight. The NBA does not care about perception at all.

 

[Yardigan]

That's exciting. Do you put him ahead of Magic, Zeke, Oscar, Curry or West?

No. x5

 

[nomar]

I'd love to land Bazz for the MLE.

Phoenix getting hosed in the lottery would make a trade for Rozier far easier to make.

Welp

 

[auror]

Welp

Grizzlies at 4 slightly helps Celtics draft pick lol

 

[tzznandrew]

Grizzlies at 4 slightly helps Celtics draft pick lol

Yeah, it's Top 9, then Top 7 restricted in the next two drafts. Then unrestricted. Let's hope they suck, but keep falling out of Top 5...only to then hit the jackpot in 2021.

 

[auror]

That's exciting. Do you put him ahead of Magic, Zeke, Oscar, Curry or West?

Zeke..

If you don't like the numbers, how about awards voting?

Paul has better MVP voting numbers, 3 more All-NBA teams (including more 1sts and 2nds). He actually made all defense teams (9 of them to be exact).

 

[Mr. French]

Tatum slurping getting hot and heavy, the almighty Celtics effect.

 

[the Q]

Welp

Yeah, nothing went Boston’s way tonight