NBA Playoffs

[Dogdeacon]

Some thoughts on Boston/Philly part one:
Regardless of the changes that are made, Philly will have to come to game two with much better focus. They're the more talented team, but their margin for error is also very low because of how they shoot the three and how well Boston defends. The way to win this series for them is to deliver a string of dialed-in defensive performances that turn the game into a matter of who can get more ugly baskets.

I didn't read the middle parts of your post, but we need to re-assess the consensus that Philly is more talented. Yes Embid and Simmons are the two best players in the series, but Horford, Tatum, Brown, Rozier & Smart might be next 3-7 best and definitely most impactful. I liked Kenny Smith's analysis last night - Celtics are wayyyy more athletic than the rest of the Sixers lineup. Reddick, Saric, Belinelli & Ilysova looked really effective in the Heat series but were exposed on defense last night. Celtics are more athletic than all those guys and maybe the Bucks poor coaching/cohesion led us to underestimate their team athleticism. Boston has the better D by far in this series and the Sixers early playoff success definitely had them sucking on their own popsicles effecting their game 1 performance. Game 2 will be really interesting cuz Sixers HAVE to bring it, and the Celtics benefit via rest and Brown coming back. I thought it was 60-40 Sixers going in after inhaling too much Sixers smoke, now I'm vaping the Brad Stevens flavor and my mind is learning that if he takes Simmons & 3pters away Philly's plan C is classically too European = slow & poor defensively.

 

[QDOG5]

Biggest move in the NBA this year was the one that didn't happen. When Houston was trying to get Melo before the season and failed to do so, they saved their season without even realizing it.

I always thought the potential Houston/Carmelo deal was a head scratcher. D'antoni already knew CA wasn't a fit for his system. He already had two ball dominant players in CP and JH. I'm guessing it was the theory that you can never have enough good players. I'm not a fan of Carmelo's play during his Knicks tenure but when he plays for Team USA he has consistently been one of the best players. Maybe D'Antoni felt CA's relationship with CP and JH was worth the risk. I'm with you @traitor71 in believing the Rockets are thanking their lucky stars that deal didn't go through.

 

[Lefty2one]

Brad Stevens repeatedly proves that coaching is immensely important in the NBA. So many fans think it's only about the players. Their team defense, effort and unselfishness as a unit is unbelievable. Everyone talks about how bright Philly's future is but I'll take Boston's eight days a week. Down three of their four best players and they smoke Philly at home. As I expected, they did a good job on Simmons, (18/7/7 is still a great stat line) he wasn't doing whatever he wanted last night as he did vs Miami.

The series will come down to who can win a game on the road. I don't see Boston winning a game in Philly given how poorly they looked in MIL and how great Philly is at home. Can Philly win one in Boston? I think it's more likely than not - I'm saying Philly in six still.

 

[champs99and04]

I didn't read the middle parts of your post, but we need to re-assess the consensus that Philly is more talented. Yes Embid and Simmons are the two best players in the series, but Horford, Tatum, Brown, Rozier & Smart might be next 3-7 best and definitely most impactful. I liked Kenny Smith's analysis last night - Celtics are wayyyy more athletic than the rest of the Sixers lineup. Reddick, Saric, Belinelli & Ilysova looked really effective in the Heat series but were exposed on defense last night. Celtics are more athletic than all those guys and maybe the Bucks poor coaching/cohesion led us to underestimate their team athleticism. Boston has the better D by far in this series and the Sixers early playoff success definitely had them sucking on their own popsicles effecting their game 1 performance. Game 2 will be really interesting cuz Sixers HAVE to bring it, and the Celtics benefit via rest and Brown coming back. I thought it was 60-40 Sixers going in after inhaling too much Sixers smoke, now I'm vaping the Brad Stevens flavor and my mind is learning that if he takes Simmons & 3pters away Philly's plan C is classically too European = slow & poor defensively.

Redick's a damn good player, I think you're underrating him. I'd take him over Rozier and Smart for sure, maybe Tatum. Covington is definitely better than Smart - he's an all-NBA defender who shoots the three at a solid 37% clip. Saric is a 6'10 dude averaging 15 a game on 39% from three.

Embiid is the best player in the series, I'm less sure that Simmons is the second best. Either way, I'm surprised anybody is arguing that the Celtics, minus Irving and Hayward, have more talent than the Sixers.

I can see how coming off the Milwaukee series it might seem like a breath of fresh air to play Philly. I had the same thought. Redick, Belinelli, Ilysova, and Saric definitely don't match up well athletically against Boston and that was exposed last night when the Celtics pulled Embiid away from the rim and attacked off the bounce. But Embiid is too good for them not to figure it out. He's among the handful of players in the league capable of hiding multiple liabilities on the perimeter with his ability to protect the rim and contain ball-handlers. The Philly team you saw last night is not the team we've seen over the last two months.

(Non-related, it will be interesting to see if the Sixers dust off Fultz at any point).

 

[Lefty2one]

After the top group (Simmons, Embiid, Brown, Horford) the nod of the supporting casts is close but I give the nod to Philly. Horford has been great, I love Tatum and thought he should have been the top pick in the draft. Ainge got that one right. Rozier and Smart are so inconsistent. For as great as Rozier is at home, he just shot 27% in the MIL series on the road. I think some fans are getting a little carried away with him, even heard some non-Boston sports talk radio call him the NBA's newest star.

Redick doesn't create his own offense but he's still an underrated player by most folks. Belinelli has been great. Elyasova, Saric and RoCo are perfect players to surround Simmons with. Size, solid defenders, shooting but as people have mentioned, they aren't overly athletic. The big thing with Philly is that Simmons is much more important to their offense than any one piece on Boston (obviously, since they're down friggin Kyrie and Hayward). If Boston defends the three-point line well throughout the series this is gonna be a war for Philly.

 

[intlzncster]

Redick's a damn good player, I think you're underrating him. I'd take him over Rozier and Smart for sure, maybe Tatum.

Smart OK, but definitely not Tatum. And it seems like Rozier has taken himself to another level. I keep waiting for some regress, but it's almost like he's getting better.

 

[kobe]

Never forget that 15 sec Ricky thought Donovan Mitchell needed another year and that Terry Rozier wasn't ready for the NBA.

 

[intlzncster]

After the top group (Simmons, Embiid, Brown, Horford) the nod of the supporting casts is close but I give the nod to Philly. Horford has been great, I love Tatum and thought he should have been the top pick in the draft. Ainge got that one right. Rozier and Smart are so inconsistent. For as great as Rozier is at home, he just shot 27% in the MIL series on the road. I think some fans are getting a little carried away with him, even heard some non-Boston sports talk radio call him the NBA's newest star.

Redick doesn't create his own offense but he's still an underrated player by most folks. Belinelli has been great. Elyasova, Saric and RoCo are perfect players to surround Simmons with. Size, solid defenders, shooting but as people have mentioned, they aren't overly athletic. The big thing with Philly is that Simmons is much more important to their offense than any one piece on Boston (obviously, since they're down friggin Kyrie and Hayward). If Boston defends the three-point line well throughout the series this is gonna be a war for Philly.

Ainge nailed the last two drafts with Tatum and Brown. Also picked up Rozier in 2015 which wasn't bad at that spot.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Smart OK, but definitely not Tatum. And it seems like Rozier has taken himself to another level. I keep waiting for some regress, but it's almost like he's getting better.

I am actually shocked at how much I like JJ Reddick as both an NBA player and even more as a media personality*, BUT his defense is at best 'energetic when overmatched' and he cannot guard anyone other than Rozier & aforementioned Smart without getting pecked to death (Tatum took all of Reddick's May lunch money, he won't guard him again in this series). Good offensive player and great shooter, but Philly has defensive and athleticism issues. Likewise Belinelli is a defensive disaster and really does little besides shoot.
I forgot about Covington, fine he's as good as Smart in a similar offensive trick or treat (averaging whopping 8.3ppg in playoffs) but defensive constant with size. But I don't see him making the intangible plays the way Smart often does. I haven't seen enough of Covington to truly compare, but Smart does a ton that doesn't make a boxscore.
Saric, Bellinelli, Ilyasova each average < 1 steal/game, <0.17 blocks. Ily can rebound but all of those guys and Reddick and TJ McConnell are lesser defensive players than their Boston comparables.
I think the fact that Sixers weren't ready last night shows the experience gap and playoff hardening is missing. Yes via pure offensive talent you can see Philly more likely to get a road win, but equally via experience & savvy I see Boston stealing a game that it should have lost.

*Listen to his interview of Ray Allen, its really good and Reddick tells an anecdote highlighting the personal regard he has for Ray.

 

[tzznandrew]

Ainge nailed the last two drafts with Tatum and Brown. Also picked up Rozier in 2015 which wasn't bad at that spot.

He looks like he's going to turn into a steal at 16.

 

[auror]

He looks like he's going to turn into a steal at 16.

And at the time everyone said it was a reach. (Reach talks about draft order value, so fair enough, but still. Get your guy).

Ainge + Brad Stevens development = best GM in the league.

Daryl Morey thinks so at least.

 

[Dogdeacon]

And at the time everyone said it was a reach. (Reach talks about draft order value, so fair enough, but still. Get your guy).

Ainge + Brad Stevens development = best GM in the league.

Daryl Morey thinks so at least.

The Fultz heist is currently so good that they won't even let the kid play in Boston. That trade down drew a knowing nod from Bill Belichick. He won't see a minute on the parquet or they risk his fragile psyche for another lost year.

 

[KemBaller]

Obviously he wanted to win the game. There have been a lot of players who have wanted to win games and not all of them were willing to play balls to the wall for 48 minutes on both ends at the age of 33, having gone to the finals seven straight years and understanding that realistically he had no shot at winning this season. The wear and tear of this many seasons under the microscope has to be exhausting. They'll tell you to a man that it's mentally and physically draining. Taking care of your body, compartmentalizing the anxiety of being a performer, constantly confronting scrutiny on and off the court...it drains you of every pore in your body. He would have had every right to go out there, play 40 minutes, put up his 30 points, hoard some rebounds and call it a season. He didn't and that's what makes him LeBron.

Jeff Van Gundy said himself that Indiana was the better team. They were. They outscored the Cavs by 38 points in the series. You don't have to stretch that hard to come to the conclusion that they would have won with slightly better focus and execution. Everyone saw it. Look, it was a great series, all you can ask for as a fan of the game. But there's a difference between gaining respect and actually having someone's attention. The opportunity was there for that Pacers team and they just came up a little short.

In the interest of keeping this brief, how does it take you this many words to repeat the same points you've already said?

Also, even if you ignore the fact that JVG is kind of a caricature at this point, you're simply taking one person's opinion and then proceeding to state it as fact. No thanks to any of that.

 

[Lefty2one]

Ainge + Brad Stevens development = best GM in the league.

I'm starting to believe this. I think Stevens is that much of a wizard and the role players are the biggest beneficiaries. Jaylen Brown was very raw coming out of Cal, it's unreal the strides he's made in two seasons. Rozier went from not being a rotation piece to one of the better backup PGs in the league. Tatum was a polished prospect but Stevens is getting the most out of him.

This is going to turn into a Patriots situations where you don't want anything to do with FAs (or trade offers) who are leaving the Celtics. Already happened with Avery Bradley and IT. If they let Smart go and I'm in the GM of another team I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Stevens gets the most out of a majority of the roster, guys who will not produce similar results in another organization.

 

[Yardigan]

The Fultz heist is currently so good that they won't even let the kid play in Boston. That trade down drew a knowing nod from Bill Belichick. He won't see a minute on the parquet or they risk his fragile psyche for another lost year.

Good call....that crowd would destroy him....

 

[champs99and04]

Smart OK, but definitely not Tatum. And it seems like Rozier has taken himself to another level. I keep waiting for some regress, but it's almost like he's getting better.

It's tough to compare them because Tatum just turned 20 and Redick is at the tail-end of his prime. I think it can be argued either way. Redick is a below average defensive player (I don't know exactly how bad), but his shooting and passing coming off screens has kept that offense above water all year and especially in the playoffs with guys like Covington struggling. In sum, he's a huge net positive for a team that protects the rim as well as Philly.

Tatum is solid defensively, perhaps above average if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt for contributing to the league's top ranked defense (I don't know how much of that is coaching/scheme, but then again, the same point could be made against Redick). On the other end he's been super efficient and looks poised to emerge as one of the league's best scorers over time, but he's feasted on a healthier diet of shots than Redick, who has been an artist at drilling unthinkably tough shots under duress, moving away from the basket.

At the end of the day, I think both clubs would keep their guys. Redick's infusion of shooting is one of the primary reasons for the turn around they've had, and it's one of the primary reasons they continued to win when Embiid went down. Tatum has held his own as a rookie on the #1 defense in the league, something I absolutely did not expect him to do, and posted outrageous shooting splits for a player in his age-19 season. Taking the needs of both teams into account, the difference between great shooter and all-time great shooter meant more to Philly than it did to Boston, and the opposite is true defensively. JMO.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Man already know Skip is gonna go in on LeBron's free throws even if the Cavs win

 

[superjohn]

It's tough to compare them because Tatum just turned 20 and Redick is at the tail-end of his prime. I think it can be argued either way. Redick is a below average defensive player (I don't know exactly how bad), but his shooting and passing coming off screens has kept that offense above water all year and especially in the playoffs with guys like Covington struggling. In sum, he's a huge net positive for a team that protects the rim as well as Philly.

Tatum is solid defensively, perhaps above average if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt for contributing to the league's top ranked defense (I don't know how much of that is coaching/scheme, but then again, the same point could be made against Redick). On the other end he's been super efficient and looks poised to emerge as one of the league's best scorers over time, but he's feasted on a healthier diet of shots than Redick, who has been an artist at drilling unthinkably tough shots under duress, moving away from the basket.

At the end of the day, I think both clubs would keep their guys. Redick's infusion of shooting is one of the primary reasons for the turn around they've had, and it's one of the primary reasons they continued to win when Embiid went down. Tatum has held his own as a rookie on the #1 defense in the league, something I absolutely did not expect him to do, and posted outrageous shooting splits for a player in his age-19 season. Taking the needs of both teams into account, the difference between great shooter and all-time great shooter meant more to Philly than it did to Boston, and the opposite is true defensively. JMO.

If they could do a straight up trade Tatum for Redick, it would take Philly about a second to pack JJ's bags.

 

[intlzncster]

It's tough to compare them because Tatum just turned 20 and Redick is at the tail-end of his prime. I think it can be argued either way. Redick is a below average defensive player (I don't know exactly how bad), but his shooting and passing coming off screens has kept that offense above water all year and especially in the playoffs with guys like Covington struggling. In sum, he's a huge net positive for a team that protects the rim as well as Philly.

Tatum is solid defensively, perhaps above average if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt for contributing to the league's top ranked defense (I don't know how much of that is coaching/scheme, but then again, the same point could be made against Redick). On the other end he's been super efficient and looks poised to emerge as one of the league's best scorers over time, but he's feasted on a healthier diet of shots than Redick, who has been an artist at drilling unthinkably tough shots under duress, moving away from the basket.

At the end of the day, I think both clubs would keep their guys. Redick's infusion of shooting is one of the primary reasons for the turn around they've had, and it's one of the primary reasons they continued to win when Embiid went down. Tatum has held his own as a rookie on the #1 defense in the league, something I absolutely did not expect him to do, and posted outrageous shooting splits for a player in his age-19 season. Taking the needs of both teams into account, the difference between great shooter and all-time great shooter meant more to Philly than it did to Boston, and the opposite is true defensively. JMO.

I wonder what JJ will do next year. Philly's paying him an absurd 23mil for this single year of service. Will he want to resign (obv for a lot cheaper)?

 

[superjohn]

Texting with friends 5 minutes ago I was saying I've never seen a team miss more point blank layups than the Raptors have tonight, as I'm typing this they just missed three more.

 

[Robertelamin]

Toronto can't hit anything

 

[superjohn]

Toronto can't hit anything

They missed 15 of last 16 and most were layups.

 

[superjohn]

How was that a shotclock violation???

 

[Robertelamin]

They missed 15 of last 16 and most were layups.

Member when champs suggested LeBron might mail it in against the Pacers? Haha good times

 

[superjohn]

Member when champs suggested LeBron might mail it in against the Pacers? Haha good times

Did somebody hack his account?

 

[Dogdeacon]

I'm starting to believe this. I think Stevens is that much of a wizard and the role players are the biggest beneficiaries. Jaylen Brown was very raw coming out of Cal, it's unreal the strides he's made in two seasons. Rozier went from not being a rotation piece to one of the better backup PGs in the league. Tatum was a polished prospect but Stevens is getting the most out of him.

This is going to turn into a Patriots situations where you don't want anything to do with FAs (or trade offers) who are leaving the Celtics. Already happened with Avery Bradley and IT. If they let Smart go and I'm in the GM of another team I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Stevens gets the most out of a majority of the roster, guys who will not produce similar results in another organization.

Smart is kind of his own guy, I don't think the Stevens effect is at play with him. Definitely if they shopped Rozier or Brown or even Horford other teams should be wary that they'll never get the same Boston does out of them.

Rozier - Kyrie (obv great on his own) - IT - kind of seems like Stevens' system is good for a PG. Maybe the narrative that IT's playing thru injury isn't the biggest part of that story, Brad simply has a system that gets great looks for any PG.

 

[Dogdeacon]

It's tough to compare them because Tatum just turned 20 and Redick is at the tail-end of his prime. I think it can be argued either way. Redick is a below average defensive player (I don't know exactly how bad), but his shooting and passing coming off screens has kept that offense above water all year and especially in the playoffs with guys like Covington struggling. In sum, he's a huge net positive for a team that protects the rim as well as Philly.

Tatum is solid defensively, perhaps above average if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt for contributing to the league's top ranked defense (I don't know how much of that is coaching/scheme, but then again, the same point could be made against Redick). On the other end he's been super efficient and looks poised to emerge as one of the league's best scorers over time, but he's feasted on a healthier diet of shots than Redick, who has been an artist at drilling unthinkably tough shots under duress, moving away from the basket.

At the end of the day, I think both clubs would keep their guys. Redick's infusion of shooting is one of the primary reasons for the turn around they've had, and it's one of the primary reasons they continued to win when Embiid went down. Tatum has held his own as a rookie on the #1 defense in the league, something I absolutely did not expect him to do, and posted outrageous shooting splits for a player in his age-19 season. Taking the needs of both teams into account, the difference between great shooter and all-time great shooter meant more to Philly than it did to Boston, and the opposite is true defensively. JMO.

This is 3 paragraphs of bad, over analysis of the obvious even without mentioning immense salary/contract disconnect. Tatum's upside vs Reddick is silly, Tatum's length & versatility NOW makes it sillier.

Next time on insane over-rating of white shooters, why Cleveland won last night, because Kyle Korver's quick release makes him better than either Lowry or DeRozan

 

[auror]

The Fultz heist is currently so good that they won't even let the kid play in Boston....He won't see a minute on the parquet or they risk his fragile psyche for another lost year.

I mean, he didn't play in the Heat series either after game 3 (and only 20 minutes combined in first 3 games). Not really a Boston thing. But you're right his shot is still broken so they're giving his minutes to McConnell (and mostly just more Simmons).

 

[Rocktheworld]

That was a good NO-GS game too. What a come-back game for Steph. Looking forward to the series headed back to NOLA

 

[Dogdeacon]

I mean, he didn't play in the Heat series either after game 3 (and only 20 minutes combined in first 3 games). Not really a Boston thing. But you're right his shot is still broken so they're giving his minutes to McConnell (and mostly just more Simmons).

I think it is a Boston thing, but its nitpicking. Here's what his coach said; "But I got a decision to make, and I’ve made a decision. “That doesn’t mean it’s etched in stone. It’s always something that you review and I think about. And the care for Markelle Fultz and his future is always on my mind.”
For me the last part says; "the 5 decent minutes best case scenario in Boston isn't worth the downside of that crowd getting on him and the kid getting further inside his own head to the point he misses another entire season tweaking his broken jump shot. I'd rather hold him out and retain the illusion he has #1 pick value, if he does we will trade him this offseason b/c without a jumper he's redundant bordering on useless given what Ben Simmons is doing. Man do I wish we had Tatum, we'd be a lock to win this series and probably the east"
But I might be reading too much into it