Some thoughts on Boston/Philly part one:
- The Celtics are just deeper and better than I gave them credit for. Forget Hayward, forget Kyrie, this team might be better than they were last year assuming Jaylen Brown returns. Rozier is a real player. Morris is a great depth piece. Smart coming back was huge for that team.
- Tatum's game is far more complete than people realize and his athleticism in general strikes me as smoother and more explosive than it was billed as being coming out of Duke. If he had played for any other college coach we'd be killing him for not getting more out of him while he was in school. The Pierce comparisons actually look pretty reasonable right now. I remember I questioned the pick and placed his ceiling at around Jabari Parker level. That was a whiff.
- Horford has been an odd guy to evaluate. The advanced numbers love him, the tape loves him, all the smart basketball guys around the league love him. But those are also the type of players who are underrated for so long that they eventually wind up being overrated, and while counting stats are far from everything, 13 and 7 is still 13 and 7. I've joked that while he may be one of the best couple dozen players in the league, he is also the furthest away from being the best. He doesn't look the part and he does nothing to swing the freak of nature battle against LeBron, Giannis, Embiid, and Durant. He's almost the exact prototype that pops to mind when you think about the lack of parity in the NBA. He's the rest stop LeBron wipes his boots and charges his phone at on his way to the finals every year.
But the guy just knows how to play basketball. He's a great defender, an elite team defender, a phenomenal passer, and an extremely valuable shooter. There are only a handful of players in the NBA who offer as diverse an array of skills.
- Stevens might be the best coach in the NBA, and I never thought I'd say that with Pop around. From a scouting and gameplanning perspective, I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone as good. His ability to micro-manage assets and condense them into repeatable schemes on both ends is really something. However, don't underestimate the value of organizational stability. From ownership to Ainge to the scouting department, all the way down to video coordinator sorts, there's a homogenous mentality within the building that makes them really hard to outleverage on matters of player personnel and development. There is a shared vision.
- I still think Philly wins this series, probably in 6, but adjustments will have to be made on the part of the Philadelphia coaching staff. As I expected, Boston is content to pack the paint, cut off one read releases to the three point line, and force Embiid and Simmons into awkward faceups at the low reward areas of the floor. At some point, people will have to confront the limitations of a Simmons/Embiid led attack, especially when only Redick qualifies as a true marksmen (and even he has worked more off screens than as a pure spot-up guy). The others - Covington, Saric, Belinelli, Ilyasova - mostly hover around "good enough" territory on a lower volume of attempts, making it easy for smart defenders (Boston has a lot) to time their closeouts and gamble for steals. For as advanced as Simmons and Embiid are from a skills standpoint, they are still absurdly large human beings trying to dribble the ball through tight windows.
- All of this can be fine for Philadelphia, as long as they exchange two for two. Simmons and Embiid are freaks of nature who should comfortably endure the test of natural selection even if they are resigned to a diet of cluttered mid-range opportunities. Sometimes basketball is simple and if Philadelphia has the option they will hit a higher percentage of two point field goals because of the fact that they have bigger people. Embiid and Simmons - Embiid especially - generate shots for themselves with motions so effortless that it is truly frightening. I remember one play in the second half where Embiid caught the ball on left wing against Baynes, pivoted middle, took one crab dribble and was already in the paint (he lost the ball on that possession, but it seemed to be the ultimate example of Embiid being the only player capable of slowing him down - over time, that maneuver will be problematic for the basketball world). It's an especially worthwhile instrument to have in the bag in today's NBA where defenses are going to push you out of your area. While Simmons and Embiid lack the refinement to be truly great post players at this stage in their careers, they demonstrate a patience and composure with the ball that is difficult to contend with when leveraged with their sheer force.
- If Philadelphia continues to guard like they did tonight, Boston will win the series, because although it is unlikely that Boston will repeat their shooting performance, their looks were good enough that the Sixers will need to make some schematic adjustments defensively to shrink the floor and give their length a chance to work in their favor. The Horford pick and pop, especially, posed problems for Embiid, who was content to sag back as if he were still playing Hassan Whiteside. Philadelphia could counter this by switching - their big men are capable of guarding the perimeter and it would in theory limit Boston's three point game even if it were to cost them some rim protection. Stevens is smart, though, and if he manages to invert Philly's defense, he could respond by pounding smaller guys like Covington and Redick in the post with the likes of Tatum and Horford. The Sixers really have nowhere to stash Embiid when Baynes is on the bench (incidentally, Baynes was a -1 in 29 minutes tonight - look for Horford at center more) because all five guys can shoot. That makes this a very different challenge for them than the last round when Embiid pretty much single handedly ruined Miami's offense.
Regardless of the changes that are made, Philly will have to come to game two with much better focus. They're the more talented team, but their margin for error is also very low because of how they shoot the three and how well Boston defends. The way to win this series for them is to deliver a string of dialed-in defensive performances that turn the game into a matter of who can get more ugly baskets.
