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I'm not sure I know what VORP is and how it relates to salary?Embiid is going to be 2nd or 3rd team All NBA and All Defense (probably 2nd team) this year. That's already "great" in my book, but I guess it's fair to say he needs to do it a couple times to call it a great pick.
The average pick comment made me curious where Embiid actually ranks compared to the other recent #3 picks in their first 4 years by VORP even missing a few years?
2017 Jayson Tatum, Duke – Boston Celtics - 1.8 + 3 years
2016 Jaylen Brown, California – Boston Celtics - 0.3 + 2 years
2015 Jahlil Okafor, Duke – Philadelphia 76ers - -1.4 + 1 year
2014 Joel Embiid, Kansas – Philadelphia 76ers - 3.2
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards - 6.3
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards - 3.3
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz - -1.7
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets - 3.2
Ironically, Tatum is probably the best of all those players, but he's played exactly as many full seasons as Embiid. Porter leading surprised me. I knew they paid him and he shot efficiently, but the 3.9 he put up in his 4th year is literally better than the 4 year spans of everyone else, including his teammate Beal who I think is better.
Regardless, just the # of games they've gotten out of Embid thus far make the return on him poor, but as of this writing he's an incredibly valuable player and very few peers or players you'd rather have. I'd temper the optimistic outlook a bit with injury history, but he looked solid physically all year or at least until 4thQs in playoffs and/or when natural disaster Fultz ran into him.
I'd rank the quality derived from those picks to date
1. Tatum - 10/10 gotten more from him in yr 1 than even most optimistic scenarios
2. Beal/Porter/Brown 9/10 some ups and downs either in play or injury but generally very good players and good value
3. Embid 8/10 - only 1.5/4 yrs of production, but a great glimpse in rookie year and spectacular 2nd year moving him into conversation of potential franchise players in NBA
4. Kanter/Favors - 6.5/10 NBA starters with limitations, I had to look up Favors stats but presumably that's because he's toiling in the anonymity of Utah
5. Okafor - 2/10 Even though people killed the Sixers for the Fultz trade b/c it didn't adhere to 'the process' way favoring quantity of draft picks, people now forget the fatal flaw in Hinkie's execution that they simply weren't good enough at making their high draft picks. Evan Turner, Nerlens Noel and Okafor were absolutely horrid draft picks all rating something similar to this 2/10 value derived. I don't even know if JOkafor will be in the NBA next year.