NBA Free Agency

[Dogdeacon]

No it didn't go over my head, I guess I should have expressly mentioned that if/when the Sixers are competitive again, especially if they become quite good, people will be fine with the tanking years. How much more entertained are you by winning 21 games instead of 10? You're willing to pay real money for 3 points of point differential per game as opposed to no money? Come on.

Sixers fans weren't forced to go to the games when they were tanking. But those same fans are going to be quite happy if/when they're competing, and it will be considered worth it. I know this, because it always is.

Having a logical plan to improve is so much better than supporting a team who mortgaged it's own future. Sixers were cupboard bare after making a decent move to try and get Andrew Bynum, whose health and desire imploded, a move made by Hinkie's predecessor.

A fan that is willing to pay money to go see a 30-52 for 5 years with no plan to improve, vs. not going for 3 years and then competing? Poll any fanbase, see which one they want.

Today I'd rather be a Sixers fan that Nets or Sacto - but you are comparing yourself favorably only to the very worst run franchise's in all of basketball. Again, congrats!! As a general fan of the NBA and Celtics fan I'd much rather see Kings or Nets over the past few years because they made an attempt to be competitive. They were brutally failed attempts & horrible GM decisions, but they tried.

Yes - totally tossing 3 years in the crapper is a viable strategy to get good 5 years later (and a better strategy than what the worst GM in the league Billy Hunter did, again congratulations not in order) , but I think its not the only or best strategy and I think it comes at a large unconscionably selfish detriment to the rest of the league.

 

[auror]

My points on the Sixers are:
1. Tanking MIGHT work, but its not worth the collateral damage
a. You will lose your job - FACT

Sadly, probably true. At least so far, although if Sixers win the title in 3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if others are more trusting of outside the box strategies in the future (other stuff since tanking will probably be outlawed).

b. Culture of losing will have negative consequences - FACT

This is not a fact. This is entirely up to the coaching and leadership of each situation. One example (whose culture is still not settled so isn't even a good example), is not enough to justify this as a fact.

c. Totally dismisses the season ticket holders, ticket buying fans and fans of other teams paying for NBA level games.

Yes, this is a consequence of tanking. Short term losses for long term gains.

2. Hinkie's strategy was based on the draft but he didn't draft well.

Hinkie acknowledged the variance in drafting and that it's a crapshoot more than skill. That is why he stockpiled as many picks as he could. More whacks at the pinatta is the empirically proven best way to draft. It's why the Patriots always trade down and accumulate picks. He also invested as much infrastructure as possible into the drafting process. When Saric comes over this year and when Ben Simmons starts playing, we'll see if he's still regarded as having a bad draft record (yes, I consider Simmons a Hinkie pick).

A. MCW - traded for a 1st rounder in 2017 or 2018 nolonger a started and that trade sacrificed 2.5yrs at least of NBA player - akin to lending money at 0 interest for 2.5yrs

This was an excellent pick from the slot. The average return for a late lottery player is not high. If the Lakers are as bad as expected next year, this pick could turn into a top 5 pick, which is exponentially more valuable. Lending money maybe, but more specifically investing with no immediate returns is the better metaphor.

B. Embiid - still hasn't played a minute, won't play in summer league

Reports are he is still a beast. Definitely a calculated risk pick, which if you're bad, is still a smart risk to take.

C. Noel - One dimensional defense, Celtics observed Sullinger had better PER

Good pick from #6 slot. One random later pick has no bearing. All about return vs. expected return from pick #.

D. Okafor - casualty of culture and one-dimensional other way.

This is narratively driven. One season isn't enough to judge a 19 year old, and I'm still not sold on the culture affecting him negatively in a permanent fashion. Defense is a concern, but that's why you have Noel and/or Embiid.

E. Look at players taken IMMEDIATELY after Sixers picks in last few drafts. 2013-Steven Adams after MCW, 2014 Aaron Gordon after Embiid, 2015-Porzingis after Okafor. I'd bet on Ingram for ROY but I'd have to root for a Dook guy.

Did he make all the right draft picks? No. Nobody does. Nobody. I'd still rather have drafted Embiid than Gordon, I think Steven Adams would look much different on a team without 2 top 5 players, and Porzingis was a great pick. Okafor wasn't a terrible pick (yet).

Today I'd rather be a Sixers fan that Nets or Sacto - but you are comparing yourself favorably only to the very worst run franchise's in all of basketball. Again, congrats!!

You were the person who made the comparison! You complimented the incompetent team in this scenario!

 

[7774]

I dunno, because they are in the same entertainment business of basketball?

I.e. just cause The Color Purple isn't Hamilton and never will be, they shouldn't gouge their audience with the same ticket prices and spend time amassing resources to try to hire high priced talent to compete in the future.

My points on the Sixers are:
1. Tanking MIGHT work, but its not worth the collateral damage
a. You will lose your job - FACT
b. Culture of losing will have negative consequences - FACT
c. Totally dismisses the season ticket holders, ticket buying fans and fans of other teams paying for NBA level games.
2. Hinkie's strategy was based on the draft but he didn't draft well.
A. MCW - traded for a 1st rounder in 2017 or 2018 nolonger a started and that trade sacrificed 2.5yrs at least of NBA player - akin to lending money at 0 interest for 2.5yrs
B. Embiid - still hasn't played a minute, won't play in summer league
C. Noel - One dimensional defense, Celtics observed Sullinger had better PER
D. Okafor - casualty of culture and one-dimensional other way.
E. Look at players taken IMMEDIATELY after Sixers picks in last few drafts. 2013-Steven Adams after MCW, 2014 Aaron Gordon after Embiid, 2015-Porzingis after Okafor. I'd bet on Ingram for ROY but I'd have to root for a Dook guy.

Wow, you're really all over the place. I guess you're now mad because they executed the strategy poorly, instead of just being mad at the strategy itself?

I did get a laugh out of the terrible Broadway analogy.

 

[HooperScooper]

Drummond reported to sign the 5 yr $130 million contract

Here are the players who were picked before Drummond:

Anthony Davis
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Bradley Beal
Dion Waiters
Thomas Robinson
Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Ross

How many of these players will sign max contracts now? Davis (didn't he already do that last year?), Beal, Lillard? Drummond going 9th was a let down after the rep he had coming into college. But it looks like he did just as well if not better than others picked before him. As JC always used to say, you need to enter the NBA ready to play because it's not the first contract that you should be worried about, it's the second.

 

[Matrim55]

Augustin to Orlando looks like it's done.

Bad news for Shabazz, who's likely to get waived (the Magic will eat a portion of his deal). I suppose Charlotte are in the market for a backup PG now -- but I'm not sure Shabazz has shown enough to win a job.

Hope he lands somewhere in summer league and lights it up.

 

[aceboon]

Is Bazz injured? I don't get why he wouldn't play for PR this summer, he should be trying to boost his stock.

 

[aceboon]

Is that not a comparable contract ? Pardon my hyperbole I just watched every cha and know lins consistency wanes. I know , different cap, still though.

Same yearly but Kemba got the extra year, hence Lin isn't making more. Can't really compare contracts that were signed before this cap bump at this point, Lin probably could have got more if he wanted to go somewhere else but he seems comfortable with Atkinson.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Did he make all the right draft picks? No. Nobody does. Nobody. I'd still rather have drafted Embiid than Gordon, I think Steven Adams would look much different on a team without 2 top 5 players, and Porzingis was a great pick. Okafor wasn't a terrible pick (yet).

You make some fair points & I can see defending the strategy overall - but facts are again that to this point the implementation has been bad. The multiple picks thing was both for randomness of draft and more importantly to eventually get a #1 & when its a franchise player - so in latter case the strategy was successful.
I'd say successful b/c IF a monkey throws enough poop against the wall eventually some will stick, with the poop being 3 years and counting of terrible-ness.

But the defense of the Embiid pick at this point is biased and laughable. They've paid Embiid for 2 years for nothing and he's yet to play. That pick is indefensible until he plays a substantial amount of an NBA season productively. "Reports are he is still a beast!?" Embid i s n o t e v e n p l a y i n g I n S-U-M-M-E-R l e a g u e. Please provide a time period for how long delusional fans can hold onto hope from reports of looking good in the gym? Is this year it, or is 4 years the cutoff?

Admittedly the MCW experience has good and bad points. Today regarded as a backup, but MCW was ROY (so provided entertainment in a Linsanity to Nets way) and smartly traded for assets when they'll need them more, so this does have impressive elements of my entertainment and Hinkie's sacrifice today for tomorrow simultaneous strategies. Nonetheless the drafting itself was bad b/c the assets/development portion would have been better served by Steven Adams, Greek Freak or Shroder among prominent better players. I know you can't draft perfectly but you can't miss every time or miss and still call it a good pick because you traded your sick pig for pork belly futures. This is also why Embiid was such a terrible pick coming on the heels of picking Noel BECAUSE both were injured and therefore would keep the team in the lottery and neither were surefire NBA starters due to combo of injury (both) & skillsets (Noel).

 

[auror]

But the defense of the Embiid pick at this point is biased and laughable. They've paid Embiid for 2 years for nothing and he's yet to play. That pick is indefensible until he plays a substantial amount of an NBA season productively. "Reports are he is still a beast!?" Embid i s n o t e v e n p l a y i n g I n S-U-M-M-E-R l e a g u e. Please provide a time period for how long delusional fans can hold onto hope from reports of looking good in the gym? Is this year it, or is 4 years the cutoff?

I know I'm definitely in the minority on the Embiid thing and it could blow up in my face, but it seems like the Sixers haven't given up, so I'm not going to either.

1) I try not to judge picks in hindsight. There were injury concerns, but missing 2 years is just about worse case scenario. Need to look at average potential case from the info at the time.
2) In the strategy, getting less short term help from him on the court is actually a positive, assuming he can develop still. This is the big question we don't know about. His body looks pretty good now (from pictures, so yes, grain of salt), but no idea if his skills are improved or possibly even atrophied or if he'll be able to stay on the court.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I know I'm definitely in the minority on the Embiid thing and it could blow up in my face, but it seems like the Sixers haven't given up, so I'm not going to either.

1) I try not to judge picks in hindsight. There were injury concerns, but missing 2 years is just about worse case scenario. Need to look at average potential case from the info at the time.
2) In the strategy, getting less short term help from him on the court is actually a positive, assuming he can develop still. This is the big question we don't know about. His body looks pretty good now (from pictures, so yes, grain of salt), but no idea if his skills are improved or possibly even atrophied or if he'll be able to stay on the court.

That's one of the problems in addition to those that are injured are more likely to continue or get reinjured and opposite is true (see James, LeBron). Missing 2 years of playing competitive basketball is really problematic especially at that age/stage in career. That's why no summer league is a bad sign - he desperately needs the reps and it means they are still tenuous about his health. Its hard to think of a pro athlete that has missed 2 years and came back healthy & ultimately got better, maybe Shawn Livingstone?

 

[pnow15]

Here are the players who were picked before Drummond:

Anthony Davis
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Bradley Beal
Dion Waiters
Thomas Robinson
Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Ross

How many of these players will sign max contracts now? Davis (didn't he already do that last year?), Beal, Lillard? Drummond going 9th was a let down after the rep he had coming into college. But it looks like he did just as well if not better than others picked before him. As JC always used to say, you need to enter the NBA ready to play because it's not the first contract that you should be worried about, it's the second.

Kidd-Gilchrist was worse pick in history, considering the Marquette kid was there on the second round and was essentially the same player.l

 

[Huskyforlife]

Shabazz is likely done in the NBA, he should do great in a forgien league where you don't need size/athleticism to make the rotation. I've read some NBA fans say he's literally the worst player currently in the league, which is likely overstated, but not a good look.

 

[champs99and04]

What do you mean? LeBron is slated to get $25MM-ish, sure he's worth more than that, but he earns 2 x salary annually. Most stars earn more in endorsements nowadays then pay (LeBron is 50MM+). So its hard to say something is broken for the best players when 1 year of earnings is enough for 10 grandchildren to each inherit $1MM.

So the money is silly* and with the salary cap jump almost every team can at least try to land 3 superstars. I think Cleveland might be the only team in the NBA with cap problems this year whereas typically its 75% of the league.

* That's what's broken if anything but that's all of sports and its been going on since Andy Messersmith in 1975 or whatever. Freakin' Hassan Whiteside signed a near $100MM contract! Better than even odds that either the money or his NBA utility are gone before the contract is.

Evan Turner is making 70% as much as LeBron. To say LeBron is "worth more" than 25 MM is the understatement of the century - in fact, the whole concept of a max contract is absurd (one could argue that it has been good for the league, though, and collaterally increased the endorsement money that guys like LeBron can bring in).

This isn't a 'feel bad for NBA stars' thing. They have good lives. It's hard to dispute the fundamental unfairness of the current model, though.
Meanwhile, did Kemba have one year left on his contract when he signed that extension last year? He must be sick - probably cost himself damn near 100 million.

 

[aceboon]

Evan Turner is making 70% as much as LeBron. To say LeBron is "worth more" than 25 MM is the understatement of the century - in fact, the whole concept of a max contract is absurd (one could argue that it has been good for the league, though, and collaterally increased the endorsement money that guys like LeBron can bring in).

This isn't a 'feel bad for NBA stars' thing. They have good lives. It's hard to dispute the fundamental unfairness of the current model, though.
Meanwhile, did Kemba have one year left on his contract when he signed that extension last year? He must be sick - probably cost himself damn near 100 million.

Kemba signed right before 14-15 season started which was the last year of his deal, probably good for him that he did since his fg% was in the tank that year with that mess of a team with no spacing. When he signed that extension you had the Zach Lowes saying he was overpaid, now he's going to be underpaid when you got guys like Dellevadova signing for $9M per compared to Kemba's $12M. Hopefully Kemba doesn't have any longstanding knee issues with these recent surgeries and is able to collect on one more big bag when his contract is up in a few years.

 

[aceboon]

Dirk took paycuts for guys like Chandler Parsons to get paid out the ass and be injured for the playoffs and then head out the door in a couple of years, amazing that Parsons can get a max deal from the Grizzlies with all of his knee issues the past couple of years. Marc Cuban at least needs to take care of Dirk if that team is gonna be in the tank, he left a lot of money on the table to be a first round exit.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Dirk took paycuts for guys like Chandler Parsons to get paid out the ass and be injured for the playoffs and then head out the door in a couple of years, amazing that Parsons can get a max deal from the Grizzlies with all of his knee issues the past couple of years. Marc Cuban at least needs to take care of Dirk if that team is gonna be in the tank, he left a lot of money on the table to be a first round exit.

Could be interesting if the two aging loyal title winners seek a Kobe-esque thank you final contract. Wade is going to have to accept less than Whiteside which has to chafe him to no end. Likewise Dirk (who I think cares less) will again have to sacrifice $ for other free agents. Do you think they can be placated if their owners tell them they'll still be making more than the unanimous MVP?

 

[Matrim55]

Dirk took paycuts for guys like Chandler Parsons to get paid out the ass and be injured for the playoffs and then head out the door in a couple of years, amazing that Parsons can get a max deal from the Grizzlies with all of his knee issues the past couple of years. Marc Cuban at least needs to take care of Dirk if that team is gonna be in the tank, he left a lot of money on the table to be a first round exit.

My hunch is that after striking out with all their primary targets, they try to get Rudy & McLemore from the Kings and Chandler from Phoenix for picks. Both Sacto & the Suns are looking to move those pieces and get some cap flexibility.

With those moves, the Mavs would have:

PG: Barea, Harris
SG: Matthews, McLemore
SF: Rudy, Anderson
PF: Dirk, Evans
C: Chandler, Hammson, McGee

Obviously this isn't great, but Carlisle has taken worse squads into the playoffs, it would preserve Dallas cap flexibility to add a max contract next summer.

Plus I think playing for Carlisle and next to Dirk would be a best-case scenario for Rudy -- he'd get to flourish going into a free agency summer (he has a player option after this coming year).

 

[James]

Same yearly but Kemba got the extra year, hence Lin isn't making more. Can't really compare contracts that were signed before this cap bump at this point, Lin probably could have got more if he wanted to go somewhere else but he seems comfortable with Atkinson.

i understand the cap minutiae , i'm just weary of this cap jump and all these sub par starters making crazy loot. kembas knee surgery is not that serious this isn't a bledsoe situation, i expect him to probably have a even better year without the ominous burden of big al clogging the paint . ( we should all take a point and praise the lord some idiot in indiana scooped big al, one of my least favorite players in the nba-- monroe, jamal crawford, gerald henderson, gallaneri are in there).

 

[James]

frankly i'm completely OFF the hornets front office after those draft day shenanigans and cliffords antiquated approach to coaching, very similar to carlisle. Carlisle barely played anderson ( the best athlete on the mavs) because he was "too young' lol. Clifford threw dirt on lambs name to the media saying he 'wasn't prepared in practice, not ready for game situations'. what a bizarre and daming statement, especially when lamb WON games for this dude early in the year.

 

[champs99and04]

Looks like Dwight to Atlanta for 3 and 70, per Broussard.

It's a pretty sane contract relative to what we've seen. We'll see where it takes them long-term - my guess is that it's probably contingent on Schroder's development. If Dwight can even get back to what he was two years ago, they'll have a beastly front court.

 

[BUConn10]

Conley just signed the most lucrative contract in NBA history. This is a guy who has never made an all star team in his career. If I ever hear someone call him underrated again I'm gonna flip out.

 

[caw]

Conley just signed the most lucrative contract in NBA history. This is a guy who has never made an all star team in his career. If I ever hear someone call him underrated again I'm gonna flip out.

He did make Kembas contract look like one of the best in the league. Absurd amount of money for a mid tier PG (not that he's bad, but he's not top five at his position, IMO). And Memphis fans thought they overpaid Gay.

 

[aceboon]

My hunch is that after striking out with all their primary targets, they try to get Rudy & McLemore from the Kings and Chandler from Phoenix for picks. Both Sacto & the Suns are looking to move those pieces and get some cap flexibility.

With those moves, the Mavs would have:

PG: Barea, Harris
SG: Matthews, McLemore
SF: Rudy, Anderson
PF: Dirk, Evans
C: Chandler, Hammson, McGee

Obviously this isn't great, but Carlisle has taken worse squads into the playoffs, it would preserve Dallas cap flexibility to add a max contract next summer.

Plus I think playing for Carlisle and next to Dirk would be a best-case scenario for Rudy -- he'd get to flourish going into a free agency summer (he has a player option after this coming year).

At this point Dallas should just tank imo, they've struck out on so many major free agents the past 4-5 years and have been just been hanging on to be a first round playoff exit after their title, and being a first round playoff team with no youth on the roster is basically NBA purgatory. Carlisle is probably too good of a coach for them to be outright terrible, but if there was a year to be terrible this would it.

 

[Walker11]

What a bizarre time for the NBA. Kent Bazemore is now getting 18 mil a year. A few years ago he was Steph's personal cheerleader and now he makes 7 mil more a year. I understand the circumstances and I am happy that players are getting this money and not the owners but this is so strange. Timing really is everything. 3 years ago the cap was 54 million and now its 94 - next year will be 104. League average (to put it nicely) guys like Mozgov and Turner are getting over 15 mil a year. Wow.

 

[navery12]

I'm sure most people will disagree, but this deal for the Knicks with Noah is awful. 4 years is gonna come back to bite them