NBA Bound Stephan

[MDHuskFan]

14/9/4 with 2 turnovers & 2 steals. Hit his 3 point attempt. Expected people to be in here praising the freshman.

Instead lots decided to double down on dumb. Love the BY

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Castle played an amazing game. He was awesome. If he can keep it up, we are in good shape going forward with 4 guards and a big.

 

[uc1519]

It's hard to get objectivity on a board dedicated to our guys. You'd be delusional if you came into this thread expecting peace.

FWIW, I think he needs a lot of improvement for the NBA level. Right now his stock is falling. That said, the flashes he's shown esp. with the crafty finishes and skill on the break are a sign of what's to come if he puts in the effort. Trust in Hurley + improvement over time.

 

[caw]

Others have mentioned it... Castle finishes like a boss.

 

[Scrutineer]

I see you are both @Sprungfeld and @Muntz longtime BY members. Clearly from his ability to put together grammatically impeccable posts (and admittedly from a phone) @Hans is well educated and a few days ago somewhat admitted to being a retired professor and/or lawyer. Then I read posts by @nelsonmuntz and I wonder why such a smart man as @Hans Sprungfeld spends anytime responding to those posts. I have come to the conclusion they may be one and the same. One representing everything you would expect from a troll and the other uses beautifully written lucid posts that could be defined as how anti-trolling posts should look and read. Makes me wonder…….

Mr. Muntz was a car manufacturer so he may be trolling for sales...........feast your eyes on the Muntz Jet:

 

[navery12]

Ehh even after tonight I have my concerns. He’s in his own head, a lot. You’ll see a player try to dap him up and he doesn’t even notice it. I’ve never seen him initiate a high five or give any real positive energy, not exactly Hassan out there. He has focus problems, the rest of the offense will be in a set he’ll be standing there then suddenly snap out of it and remember what he had to do and get to his spot. This offense requires a lot of quick thinking, if you don’t have the drive to learn it fast or a high volume of reps it can be overwhelming. He’s much better with the ball in his hands. Like I said tho, best traits of any guard we‘ve ever had, his iso man defense is incredible, teams need to confuse him with switches to get anything off on him.

Thanks for coming back to the board, I'd almost forgotten how truly awful your takes are

 

[mauconnfan]

I’m not sure how you could have anything but positive thoughts in the direction of Stephons game after last night. He’s finding himself, he works his butt off on both ends and is tough as nails. Gonna be fun to watch the rest of the year.

 

[Rico444]

Ehh even after tonight I have my concerns. He’s in his own head, a lot. You’ll see a player try to dap him up and he doesn’t even notice it. I’ve never seen him initiate a high five or give any real positive energy, not exactly Hassan out there. He has focus problems, the rest of the offense will be in a set he’ll be standing there then suddenly snap out of it and remember what he had to do and get to his spot. This offense requires a lot of quick thinking, if you don’t have the drive to learn it fast or a high volume of reps it can be overwhelming. He’s much better with the ball in his hands. Like I said tho, best traits of any guard we‘ve ever had, his iso man defense is incredible, teams need to confuse him with switches to get anything off on him.

You should let Hurley know your concerns, seems like Steph has him completely fooled.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Number of First Round Draft Picks out of the League before Year 6:

1987: 7/23
1988: 5/25
1989: 10/27
1990: 9/27
1991: 9/27
1992: 5/27
1993: 8/27
1994: 9/27
1995: 8/29
1996: 7/29
1997: 8/28

Same as it ever was

(And, by your own logic, worse, since this is the time in which players regularly played 3-4 years. I intentionally stopped before HS players).

The fact that everyone has to pick at the corners of my argument and no one can debate it holistically means that I am right.

 

[aceboon]

It's hard to get objectivity on a board dedicated to our guys. You'd be delusional if you came into this thread expecting peace.

FWIW, I think he needs a lot of improvement for the NBA level. Right now his stock is falling. That said, the flashes he's shown esp. with the crafty finishes and skill on the break are a sign of what's to come if he puts in the effort. Trust in Hurley + improvement over time.

Which NBA scouts do you talk to on the regular to know where his "stock" stands?

 

[Mr. French]

The fact that everyone has to pick at the corners of my argument and no one can debate it holistically means that I am right.

I get what you’re doing, but in reality all that’s happening is YOU say a bunch of things as fact, people respond to those nuanced inaccuracies, then you claim them making that point, while you don’t say they’re wrong, doesn’t do anything to your MAIN point.

So really, there’s no way to combat your point; you think you’re right regardless of the responses.

 

[imno1]

It's comforting that they no longer have concerns about his knee. He logged 36 minutes last night.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It is that complicated. Some teams tie up 5 to 7 years or more of massive cap dollars waiting for a player to maybe develop, and for every 1 and done that makes it, 10 don't and just burn dollars and time.

Further, while there has been some accuracy with the top pick or two (although nowhere close to what it was 30 years ago), the whole draft turns into a crapshoot pretty quickly. Whoever used Giannis as part of his logic for how 1 and dones are great should stop posting about basketball or logic. That draft was a horror show, with top players coming from all over the draft. That happens quite a bit now, because one and dones are very hard to evaluate. So what is the benefit of a high draft pick in a world of 1 and dones if the 5th pick is not significantly more likely to be a star than the 15th pick?

Or, an NBA GM could just wait for free agency or trade the picks rather than waste millions on 19 year olds who are likely to flame out. Look at the last few offseasons. More and more NBA GMs are choosing this path.

That’s the league. It’s a stupid model but it basically comes down to some combination of luck and good evaluation. Pick Markelle Fultz, oops, sorry. Pick Tatum, lucky you. Durant? Yay! Oden? Boo.

As far as I can tell, nobody has really figured it out. Drafting QBs in the NFL is similar.

As for Stephon, I don’t see any massive concern with his shooting form, unlike Andre. He will become a good shooter. Castle‘s level of effort and intensity on D and the boards has been beyond impressive. Most competitive guy we’ve had in the Hurley era. Physically he checks every box except explosive jumping. So yes, he’s absolutely worth a lottery pick because he has star potential and stars decide who wins in the NBA. I wish it was like MLB or NFL where balanced teams with few stars can win, but it isn’t.

 

[husky429]

As for Stephon, I don’t see any massive concern with his shooting form, unlike Andre. He will become a good shooter

Agreed. No real mechanical issue and while not a GREAT shooter in HS, he made plenty of contested deep ones. It's just mental at this point.

I like that he's getting to the rim aggressively and getting fouled. Seeing some FTs go in is always good for confidence for a shooter.

 

[REB1094]

I don't think the argument should be "is every 1st round/lottery pick a valuable NBA player right now?". It should be "how many of the best players in the NBA are first round/lottery picks?". That is a better judge of if being a first round pick really correlates to NBA success

I'm a little bored this morning, so I looked up the best player (imo) of every team in the playoff/play-in picture right now -

• Average draft pick: 11.6
• Lottery picks: 70%
• First round picks: 90% (2 exceptions: Jalen Brunson and Nikola Jokic)

Last 10 MVPs (removed duplicates so this goes all the way back to 2008 Kobe) -

• Average draft pick: 9.0
• Lottery picks: 80%
• First round picks: 90% (1 exception - Jokic)

Last 10 Finals MVPs (also removed duplicates so goes back to 2008 Paul Pierce) -

• Average draft pick: 12.2
• Lottery picks: 70%
• First round picks: 90% (1 exception - Jokic)

Last year's All Stars (including injury replacements) -

• Average draft pick: 8.7
• Lottery picks: 85%
• First round picks: 96% (1 exception - Jokic)

High correlation

 

[Icehawk]

Right now his stock is falling.

What are you on about? Comes back and has shown improvement every game, BEFOW, two big games in a row… hell, even took and made a 3. I would have said it’s rising again from his injury dip.

Do I like seeing him standing still in the corner and his coverage sagged off into the paint? No, but they will figure it out and I think if he can make a few more he will reverse the trend.

 

[AllHusky]

The fact that everyone has to pick at the corners of my argument and no one can debate it holistically means that I am right.

Always!!

 

[jibsey]

I started this thread and last night I saw a lot to like even in his shooting. He made a nice touch midrange plus the late 3. He has the strength of a piece of granite going to the rim and he loves the contact. Good touch on the foul shots. Remember, I never questioned the type of kid he is or his value to the team, only that we hadn’t seen much shooting skill and I love the way he scraps and fights, his passing, BBIQ. We’ll see what happens after the season in the draft but we needed him and will need him to win games. I feel bad that Solo and Jaylin will have minutes reduced because on some teams they would both get a ton of PT, just hope they stay happy to be here.

 

[AllHusky]

That’s the league. It’s a stupid model but it basically comes down to some combination of luck and good evaluation. Pick Markelle Fultz, oops, sorry. Pick Tatum, lucky you. Durant? Yay! Oden? Boo.

As far as I can tell, nobody has really figured it out. Drafting QBs in the NFL is similar.

As for Stephon, I don’t see any massive concern with his shooting form, unlike Andre. He will become a good shooter. Castle‘s level of effort and intensity on D and the boards has been beyond impressive. Most competitive guy we’ve had in the Hurley era. Physically he checks every box except explosive jumping. So yes, he’s absolutely worth a lottery pick because he has star potential and stars decide who wins in the NBA. I wish it was like MLB or NFL where balanced teams with few stars can win, but it isn’t.

Agreed, I watched the 3 pointer he made a couple of times, never saw AJ shoot the ball like that. Combination of experience and confidence will make him unbearable for other teams. Can't rush either of those, no wine before it's time!!

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Agreed, I watched the 3 pointer he made a couple of times, never saw AJ shoot the ball like that. Combination of experience and confidence will make him unbearable for other teams. Can't rush either of those, no wine before it's time!!

With all due respect to Andre the Castle comparison should have been put to bed after watching him play for 5 minutes. In his entire UConn career did Andre take one midrange jump shot that looked anything like the one Castle stepped into yesterday? No. The comparison was always silly and based solely on Castle’s numbers in a limited sample. No one who watched Castle play in high school would make the comparison.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I get what you’re doing, but in reality all that’s happening is YOU say a bunch of things as fact, people respond to those nuanced inaccuracies, then you claim them making that point, while you don’t say they’re wrong, doesn’t do anything to your MAIN point.

So really, there’s no way to combat your point; you think you’re right regardless of the responses.

That's not what I am doing. I am making a relatively straightforward argument: That the current NBA draft is broken and teams are better off trading their draft picks than using them. I provided some evidence, such as the first round has become increasingly randomized in terms of where talent comes from within that round.

The current system strongly encourages kids to jump as early as possible. As a result, the NBA ends up with higher risk picks that take years to be productive, and quality players don't get a chance because so many roster spots are tied up with 1 and dones that can't play but are under guaranteed contract.

I even have some solutions:

1) More NBA player compensation should be production based. Players are guaranteed roughly 50% of NBA revenue per the current CBA. Under the current structure, productive veterans are punished because 19 year olds are tying up big chunks of the salary cap for years despite producing nothing. Why do veterans agree to that? Veterans should demand a component of players revenue share be allocated among the players based on production, and take that money out of the rookie contracts. If a kid wants to come out at 19 and ride the bench for 2 years, he would get paid, but not really get paid.

2) NBA G League - I think the wheels will come off college sports soon enough, but if I was the NBA, I would start promoting my minor league more aggressively now, and also give at least partial credit for minor league activity towards NBA seniority. This would push more players to the G League, making it more marketable, and would result in a better quality of player when they get to the NBA, compared to burying a kid on an NBA bench and hoping he develops. There are other things the NBA could do to promote the G League.

3) Quick Cut - An NBA team should have a "quick cut" option to walk away from a completely failed draft pick. If an NBA franchise decides by March of the rookie year that a player is just not working out, they should be able to walk away from the guarantee. There should be a limit on the number of times a franchise can do this, maybe once every three years or something, but there should be consequences to the player for completely sucking, and make a player think twice about jumping to the League when they are completely unready. And that player getting cut will open up a slot for another player.

 

[Psolo12]

Top college teams are going to keep getting older because of NIL. I expect the NBA draft to start to reflect that going forward. The superstars will still be able to do it, but NBA teams are going to be increasingly reluctant to take flyers on players whose realistic upside is "role player".

I literally disproved this with last year's draft class and you never responded.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I literally disproved this with last year's draft class and you never responded.

You are entitled to your opinion that teams will keep pissing away tens of millions of dollars and years of development on 19 year olds that never develop.

Generally, in business, when an investment strategy is failing over and over and over and over, eventually, some people stop doing it. We are already seeing NBA GM's assigning lower values to draft picks in trades, which is one sign that I am right. We will see if the rest of the NBA GM community is capable of learning.

 

[Tenspro2002]

You are entitled to your opinion that teams will keep pissing away tens of millions of dollars and years of development on 19 year olds that never develop.

Generally, in business, when an investment strategy is failing over and over and over and over, eventually, some people stop doing it. We are already seeing NBA GM's assigning lower values to draft picks in trades, which is one sign that I am right. We will see if the rest of the NBA GM community is capable of learning.

I'm going to say again what I said last week.

You are probably right that what NBA GMs should be doing is placing a higher value on guys who have demonstrated they can produce in college.

We have no idea what NBA GMs will actually do going forward, but recent evidence suggests they will continue to go for the home run pick with younger, high-potential players whose ceiling and limitations hasn't yet been made evident, as much as it may hurt the NBA product.

 

[EZPass]