NBA Bound Stephan

[Excalibur]

I'm going to say again what I said last week.

You are probably right that what NBA GMs should be doing is placing a higher value on guys who have demonstrated they can produce in college.

We have no idea what NBA GMs will actually do going forward, but recent evidence suggests they will continue to go for the home run pick with younger, high-potential players whose ceiling and limitations hasn't yet been made evident, as much as it may hurt the NBA product.

The NBA is a star’s league. You can’t win without top 10 players. It’s either tough, expensive, or both to acquire a star in today’s NBA. Free agency is huge $$$$$, and teams are less willing to give up stars for just draft picks unless they know they aren’t competing and want to unload salary to bid on the next free agent.

Role players, on the other hand, are a dime a dozen.

So you draft for the chance of getting a star, knowing that most of the time you’ll whiff. If you do hit, especially out of the top 5, it can change the direction of your franchise.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The NBA is a star’s league. You can’t win without top 10 players. It’s either tough, expensive, or both to acquire a star in today’s NBA. Free agency is huge $$$$$, and teams are less willing to give up stars for just draft picks unless they know they aren’t competing and want to unload salary to bid on the next free agent.

Role players, on the other hand, are a dime a dozen.

So you draft for the chance of getting a star, knowing that most of the time you’ll whiff. If you do hit, especially out of the top 5, it can change the direction of your franchise.

That is certainly conventional wisdom. Of course the NBA Final Four over the last 20 years completely undermines this assertion. How many teams got a big star win the Top 5 pick and then built up the team with "dime a dozen" role players? The 76ers are still trying to get out of the second round with that strategy.

Recent NBA champs and the source of their top players:

2023 Nuggets - Jokic (2nd round). Murray (7th pick), Porter (14th) and Gordon (acquired star)
2022 Warriors - Curry (7th), Thompson (11th), Green (2nd round), Wiggins (acquired star)
2021 Bucks - Antetokounmpo (15th), Middleton (throw in on trade between two mediocre point guards), Holiday and Lopez (acquired stars)
2020 Lakers - Lebron and AD (acquired superstars), KCP (acquired quality player), Kuzma (27th pick)
2019 Raptors - no lottery picks on team
2018 Warriors - Curry (7th), Thompson (11th), Green (2nd round), Durant (acquired superstar)
2017 Warriors - Curry (7th), Thompson (11th), Green (2nd round), Durant (acquired superstar)
2016 Cavaliers - Lebron (acquired superstar), Love and JR Smith (acquired stars), Kyrie (HOMEGROWN TOP 5 PICK)


You have to go back 8 years to find where one of the Top 4 players on a title team was a homegrown Top 5 pick.

The way teams actually win titles is to find that superstar, which generally comes out of the first round, and then fill in stars around him through trades and free agency. With the exception of the 2020 Lakers, the Covid champ, the other recent champions were deep with quality players that could actually win games for teams.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

That is certainly conventional wisdom. Of course the NBA Final Four over the last 20 years completely undermines this assertion. How many teams got a big star win the Top 5 pick and then built up the team with "dime a dozen" role players? The 76ers are still trying to get out of the second round with that strategy.

Recent NBA champs and the source of their top players:

2023 Nuggets - Jokic (2nd round). Murray (7th pick), Porter (14th) and Gordon (acquired star)
2022 Warriors - Curry (7th), Thompson (11th), Green (2nd round), Wiggins (acquired star)
2021 Bucks - Antetokounmpo (15th), Middleton (throw in on trade between two mediocre point guards), Holiday and Lopez (acquired stars)
2020 Lakers - Lebron and AD (acquired superstars), KCP (acquired quality player), Kuzma (27th pick)
2019 Raptors - no lottery picks on team
2018 Warriors - Curry (7th), Thompson (11th), Green (2nd round), Durant (acquired superstar)
2017 Warriors - Curry (7th), Thompson (11th), Green (2nd round), Durant (acquired superstar)
2016 Cavaliers - Lebron (acquired superstar), Love and JR Smith (acquired stars), Kyrie (HOMEGROWN TOP 5 PICK)


You have to go back 8 years to find where one of the Top 4 players on a title team was a homegrown Top 5 pick.

The way teams actually win titles is to find that superstar, which generally comes out of the first round, and then fill in stars around him through trades and free agency. With the exception of the 2020 Lakers, the Covid champ, the other recent champions were deep with quality players that could actually win games for teams.

FWIW, all these teams outside of the Warriors are led by guys who went to the NBA as soon as possible. Lol

Whether one and done, HS, or European that declared once eligible.

 

[The Yakk]

The current system is anti-labor. There are dozens of good players on veteran minimum contracts while 19 year old kids that will never be any good are making millions on guaranteed contracts.

Very true.

Maybe a better way to frame your #3 is not to let the team negate the contract, but just forgive them that amount in their salary cap calculation. They would still have to pay the player, though.

But it still doesn't address the core problem, which is teams failing in the draft by taking fliers on unproven potential and undervaluing proven winners. Probably you can't fix that through legislation anyway; the decision makers just need to wake up. Maybe they never will.

 

[Psolo12]

Players are guaranteed 50% of the NBA revenue, so AS I SAID IN THE POST, any money taken away would have to go back into the pot for veterans.

I hope some of these posters on this board are not UConn grads.

Then what is the incentive for players to ever leave college in the current environment, if the risk would be so high?

 

[The Yakk]

A player with 5 years of experience in the NBA will make a minimum of 2.3 million per year, with the amount slightly increasing up to 10 years. I think they’re doing alright.

They have reached the pinnacle of their profession and are doing fantastic by the standards of the general public. And it is a common thing for us armchair fans to observe that and conclude they are being paid fairly.

But of course, that is way too simplistic a view. Sports owners work non-stop to suppress player salaries and protect excess returns; many put more effort into that fight than into actually trying to win. In a truly free market, the middle class of good players would make a hell of a lot more.

Player salaries--and the players' shares of the immense wealth generated by professional sports--have been moving in only one direction over the last 100 years, and there is lots more to be gained. The arc of history is long and slow, but it bends towards justice.

 

[Huskyforlife]

They have reached the pinnacle of their profession and are doing fantastic by the standards of the general public. And it is a common thing for us armchair fans to observe that and conclude they are being paid fairly.

But of course, that is way too simplistic a view. Sports owners work non-stop to suppress player salaries and protect excess returns; many put more effort into that fight than into actually trying to win. In a truly free market, the middle class of good players would make a hell of a lot more.

Player salaries--and the players' shares of the immense wealth generated by professional sports--have been moving in only one direction over the last 100 years, and there is lots more to be gained. The arc of history is long and slow, but it bends towards justice.

Idk what to tell you man, the players union negotiates this stuff, nobody is holding a gun to an athletes head and demanding they sign a vet minimum contract, but they’ll sign it anyways, cause it’s a sweet deal. The market dictates that’s what they’re worth, or another team would outbid them. The middle ground exists between max contracts and vet minimum guys, they’re on almost every team.

 

[The Yakk]

Idk what to tell you man, the players union negotiates this stuff, nobody is holding a gun to an athletes head and demanding they sign a vet minimum contract, but they’ll sign it anyways, cause it’s a sweet deal. The market dictates that’s what they’re worth, or another team would outbid them. The middle ground exists between max contracts and vet minimum guys, they’re on almost every team.

Players unions are great. Since they have come into existence in all sports in the last 50 years or so, the players have made consistent incremental gains. That will continue going forward, because there is plenty more to be won.

You are correct, no one holds a gun to anyone's head to force them to sign a contract. But there would be a hell of a lot more money available to an NBA veteran player if there were not a salary cap, self-imposed by the owners.

All of these things--the draft, the salary cap, the franchise tag in football, the baseball luxury tax--they are all mechanisms to suppress player salaries. But in the long run they can only slow the tide, not stop it. The value of the players' labor to the owners is a lot greater than the amount players are paid. So the incremental gains will continue.

The owners know this too. They love it when casual fans take your attitude--that the players are getting enough, and they can do something else if don't like it--becasue that is a big PR victory for them. But in the long run it won't change anything.

 

[Hunt for 7]

Players unions are great. Since they have come into existence in all sports in the last 50 years or so, the players have made consistent incremental gains. That will continue going forward, because there is plenty more to be won.

You are correct, no one holds a gun to anyone's head to force them to sign a contract. But there would be a hell of a lot more money available to an NBA veteran player if there were not a salary cap, self-imposed by the owners.

All of these things--the draft, the salary cap, the franchise tag in football, the baseball luxury tax--they are all mechanisms to suppress player salaries. But in the long run they can only slow the tide, not stop it. The value of the players' labor to the owners is a lot greater than the amount players are paid. So the incremental gains will continue.

The owners know this too. They love it when casual fans take your attitude--that the players are getting enough, and they can do something else if don't like it--becasue that is a big PR victory for them. But in the long run it won't change anything.

Salary caps should lead to parity, which if you look at this years nfl ratings are a good thing. I just think the minimum salaries should be adjusted more frequently. The nba is already a mess because the players have too much power. All businesses need some type of structure to be successful.

 

[The Yakk]

The NBA is already a mess because the players have too much power.

I'm sure that's true from the owners' perspective.

The fans' perspective is probably mixed. Maybe depends on which team you root for.

Do you think it's true from the players' perspective? And whom do we need more, the owners or the players? The last 50 years of labor negotiations in pro sports is answering that for us.

Salary caps should lead to parity (...) All businesses need some type of structure to be successful.

There is truth in this. The massive fan interest and revenue generated by pro sports has to be partly due to the perception of parity in the leagues, and to some level of roster continuity. It helps fans form attachments to teams.

If you did away with the draft and made everyone in the world a free agent, for example, then who in their right mind would want to play in Oklahoma City? (Although maybe that's an argument that in a truly free market there would not be a team in OKC. But that's a different discussion. )

Anyway, I tend to agree that if you made the player labor market completely free and unfettered then there is probably a lot less money to go around for everyone.

But where is the fair balancing point? I think the athletes have a lot more to gain before we get there.

It also strikes me how many fans take the owners' side in this as a matter of reflex. Is it really that simple? Do we feel the same way about our own jobs--that the boss is always right, and whatever they deign to pay us is fair?

 

[aceboon]

 

[MexicoHusky]

I havent seen the Xavier game yet. Waiting for the replay. But i watched the highlights. Castle finished an and 1 in the first half where he was forearmed in the face pretty hard. And there should of been a call on fancy reverse in the 2nd half. Very nice finishes in both cases.

 

[tzznandrew]

It's almost as if most of the people posting negatively about Castle in this tread either have (a) the patience & perspective of a child, or (b) don't know what they're watching when they watch basketball. Perhaps a little of both.

 

[husky429]

It's almost as if most of the people posting negatively about Castle in this tread either have (a) the patience & perspective of a child, or (b) don't know what they're watching when they watch basketball. Perhaps a little of both.

We have a small but loud portion of posters who relish when freshman play poorly because they like to make some point about the failure of one-and-done. It's weird.

I'm not relishing every time Stewart misses a shot because I thought Ross would earn minutes before him. Players doing well is... a good thing.

 

[superjohn]

It's almost as if most of the people posting negatively about Castle in this tread either have (a) the patience & perspective of a child, or (b) don't know what they're watching when they watch basketball. Perhaps a little of both.

If he showed a consistent jumper he would be the #1 pick. I don't know what some of our fans are watching...

He's as good as it gets in the country at finishing, he's a great passer, he's a great rebounder, and he can guard 3 or 4 positions. We've yet to see the best of him and he's already pretty damn good.

 

[aceboon]

It's almost as if most of the people posting negatively about Castle in this tread either have (a) the patience & perspective of a child, or (b) don't know what they're watching when they watch basketball. Perhaps a little of both.

there's also the portion of fans that selfishly want our underclassmen to "underperform" compared to NBA draft expectations so that they can stay in school in longer, as if putting guys in the league sooner doesn't help the program.

 

[selles]

If he showed a consistent jumper he would be the #1 pick. I don't know what some of our fans are watching...

He's as good as it gets in the country at finishing, he's a great passer, he's a great rebounder, and he can guard 3 or 4 positions. We've yet to see the best of him and he's already pretty damn good.

That's all true and on top of that his attitude has been fantastic. Tough kid who's all about the team.

 

[Yardigan]

A player with 5 years of experience in the NBA will make a minimum of 2.3 million per year, with the amount slightly increasing up to 10 years. I think they’re doing alright.

Average career is less than 5 years?

 

[HooperScooper]

#8 pick in this just released mock draft.

247Sports 2024 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0: 'You have to pick someone'

Here's a look at the top-30 players for this June's draft.

247sports.com

 

[husky429]

#8 pick in this just released mock draft.

247Sports 2024 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0: 'You have to pick someone'

Here's a look at the top-30 players for this June's draft.

247sports.com

No Clingan listed.

 

[Umami Zen]

Really don't get this BY concern about Castle's shooting. The guy is unstoppable inside the paint/filling the lane/using the hoop to get a finishing shot off/going to the hoop. It looks to me like he's showing respect to the veterans on the team who are excellent shooters within the flow of the offense. From what I've seen--He's got nice form on his stroke from outside. As the season goes on and he gets more strength in his legs post-surgery--He'll begin to show more explosion and athleticism. Danny has said he is impressed with his coachability and his humility. He's a great teammate.

Enjoy him this year. His Draft stock is only going to continue to rise.

 

[dennismenace]

This is the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Have a kid leave college, where they're receiving an education and making NIL money with the hopes of guaranteed money in the league, then pull the carpet out from under them and leave them with nothing when they don't hit the ground running their first year?

This will NEVER be considered by the player's association.

Caveat emptor. You are right. That would be a crazy deal for the player to sign.

 

[imno1]

It's almost as if most of the people posting negatively about Castle in this tread either have (a) the patience & perspective of a child, or (b) don't know what they're watching when they watch basketball. Perhaps a little of both.

And they’re all on the game chats. The reason I haven’t been on it in 2 years

 

[Zonepress]

Salary caps should lead to parity, which if you look at this years nfl ratings are a good thing. I just think the minimum salaries should be adjusted more frequently. The nba is already a mess because the players have too much power. All businesses need some type of structure to be successful.

The nba is a mess?
The players have too much power?
The nba has no structure?
Wow
Saying that you’re misinformed would be an understatement
It’s an immensely successful business that has grown tremendously has great relations with the u ion
The salary cap grows every year
They are constantly tweaking the salary cap
They are growing in every way possible for a G league to the summer league to internationally
You might wanna rethink your comments

 

[Inyatkin]

And they’re all on the game chats. The reason I haven’t been on it in 2 years

I don't go to game chats either, but all anyone says about them is they're full of people getting crazy/reactive about everything that goes wrong. Doesn't seem like a great use of anyone's time