My hot take, don't ever draft a running back in the 1st rd. | The Boneyard

My hot take, don't ever draft a running back in the 1st rd.

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Scoe

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I gotta go with the Parcells philosophy here. It's just not worth the risk, even if you hit on the rb your team better have all pros around him to start his career. People will bring up Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys but that was an outlier and the Cowboys had a boatload of picks. As a matter of fact I wouldn't draft a rb till day 3, there are many good rbs that go undrafted every year too.

What did the Vikings win with Peterson, Giants with Saquon and of course Barry Sanders with the Lions, it's always better to have an above average to very good qb and oline then it is to have a great rb.
 
Scoe said:
I gotta go with the Parcells philosophy here. It's just not worth the risk, even if you hit on the rb your team better have all pros around him to start his career. People will bring up Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys but that was an outlier and the Cowboys had a boatload of picks. As a matter of fact I wouldn't draft a rb till day 3, there are many good rbs that go undrafted every year too.

What did the Vikings win with Peterson, Giants with Saquon and of course Barry Sanders with the Lions, it's always better to have an above average to very good qb and oline then it is to have a great rb.
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Multiple reasons this makes sense:

Low shelf life, rarely see value into second contract

Abundance, better to have multiple fresh than 1 horse

It’s more about the OL than the RB (Zeke Elliott)

I would never draft a RB first round.
 
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RuffRuff said:
Multiple reasons this makes sense:

Low shelf life, rarely see value into second contract

Abundance, better to have multiple fresh than 1 horse

It’s more about the OL than the RB (Zeke Elliott)

I would never draft a RB first round.
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And using Zeke Elliot as an example, they know this, so start pushing for a big money extension far too soon. And then you're stuck paying huge money for a declining RB. That said, yes, Zeke had major juice when he came out, it wasn't just the OL.
 
That is NOT a hot take. It has been conventional wisdom in the NFL for decades.

In the previous century RBs often went in round one with several at #1 overall. The results were mixed as they are at virtually every position. That may be changing somewhat as every team watched Barkley elevate the entire team in Philadelphia. Two, at least, should go in R1 this year. The biggest change in the draft, IMHO, is that teams now place more emphasis on need than on best player available.

I think that Ernie Accorsi laid out some draft principles that are pretty good. He said.

1. You cannot have too many pass rushers or corner backs.
2. If you project a player as your franchise QB, do what ever it takes to get him.
 
Palatine said:
That is NOT a hot take. It has been conventional wisdom in the NFL for decades.

In the previous century RBs often went in round one with several at #1 overall. The results were mixed as they are at virtually every position. That may be changing somewhat as every team watched Barkley elevate the entire team in Philadelphia. Two, at least, should go in R1 this year. The biggest change in the draft, IMHO, is that teams now place more emphasis on need than on best player available.

I think that Ernie Accorsi laid out some draft principles that are pretty good. He said.

1. You cannot have too many pass rushers or corner backs.
2. If you project a player as your franchise QB, do what ever it takes to get him.
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Can we bring Ernie out of retirement??
 
The average NFL running backs career is 2 years, much shorter than other positions. You don't waste a 1st round pick on a running back. The NFL is more of a passing league now.
 
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Ashton Jeanty falls to a good team and let's see how this philosophy works.

Amazingly, an older Barkley was better on a good Eagles team than on a bad Giants team (and the wins having Barkley on your team did more for the Eagles than in knocking the Giants into a worse draft slot).
 
Well more importantly, would you take a RB in he first round in fantasy or go double bigs…I mean double WR 1st two rounds?
 
coachcap said:
Did Parcells come up with this philosophy before or after he drafted running backs in rounds 1 & 2? (Michigan rb who shall remain nameless followed by Joe Morris from Syracuse)
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Ray Perkins was still head coach for that draft (spring 1982). He quit to take over at Alabama when the following (strike) season ended.
 
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This always made me smile.

IMG_1250.jpeg
 
I understand the philosophy and don't disagree with it but I also want to add the you should not draft a QB in round one unless you are convinced that he is the right guy.

I still get irritated when I hear alleged experts rehash the 2018 draft knowing what they know now, claim that the Giants still would have been better off drafting Darnold (didn't show he could be an NFL QB until he was with his fourth team) or Rosen (showed basically nothing before he washed out of the league) than Barkley.

Yes, Allen (who many of the same experts claimed was a gamble when the Bills drafted him) turned out to be something very good but he was never among the QB's they said the Giants should have picked.
 
I think we are seeing positional value shift back again. WR is the new RB, the college game is so pass heavy that it's flooding the NFL with talent. Still, you need 6 WR and 3 RB, so it retains value. But the running game is back in the NFL as you'd expect. Teams building a defense to stop the pass are vulnerable to the run.

So yes, you can take a RB in round 1. Worth it just for the 5th year option. But taking one in the top half of round 1 should be really rare and probably reserved for good teams who have a real need and for elite prospects. Jeanty will definitely go high in round 1. It's a very strong RB draft so round 2 will be RB heavy.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
I understand the philosophy and don't disagree with it but I also want to add the you should not draft a QB in round one unless you are convinced that he is the right guy.

I still get irritated when I hear alleged experts rehash the 2018 draft knowing what they know now, claim that the Giants still would have been better off drafting Darnold (didn't show he could be an NFL QB until he was with his fourth team) or Rosen (showed basically nothing before he washed out of the league) than Barkley.

Yes, Allen (who many of the same experts claimed was a gamble when the Bills drafted him) turned out to be something very good but he was never among the QB's they said the Giants should have picked.
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Even Josh Allen wouldn't be very good behind the Giants O line
 
I think versatility in a RB is key and its what makes Saquan so good. He can run for power and finesse he can be an extra WR out of the backfield and act as a TE as well. What I am more concerned about is placing all your eggs in a QB say like a Milroe because he can get you yards with his legs. Sooner or later he is going to be injured like Danny Dimes
 
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FfldCntyFan said:
I understand the philosophy and don't disagree with it but I also want to add the you should not draft a QB in round one unless you are convinced that he is the right guy.

I still get irritated when I hear alleged experts rehash the 2018 draft knowing what they know now, claim that the Giants still would have been better off drafting Darnold (didn't show he could be an NFL QB until he was with his fourth team) or Rosen (showed basically nothing before he washed out of the league) than Barkley.

Yes, Allen (who many of the same experts claimed was a gamble when the Bills drafted him) turned out to be something very good but he was never among the QB's they said the Giants should have picked.
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The mistake was holding onto Saquon too long, should've traded or cut him when the Giants were 1-6 and not going anywhere in his last year, it was Saquon that won those meaningless games down the stretch that cost the Giants Jayden Daniels.
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
Hot take: Giants shouldn’t draft Evan Neal or Ereck Flowers or Kadarius Toney or Daniel Jones or Eli Apple or Deandre Baker in the 1st round.
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Or Kayvon Thibodeaux or Deonte Banks, either.

Goes to show you the difference a good GM versus a bad one makes. Pivotal to the success or failure of a franchise. Sure, it is easy to say that Dave Gettleman was bad... because he was.

But the truth is that Joe Schoen so far has done a particularly lousy job as GM also. I thought he was an excellent hire in 2022. But his track record so far stinks.

To date:
1. Malik Nabors is the first 1st round draft choice he has hit on... 1 for 4. The 2022 draft with Thibodeaux and Neal in particular sticks out as a disaster. Also, not much good has come out of the later rounds either. On his 3 drafts Joe Schoen has been a failure. Grade: Failure

2. Brian Daboll hiring. Looked good for the first year... but then his spat with Wink Martindale that caused Wink to leave, lack of control over the locker room and puzzling in game decisions the last couple of years marks this as a failure also. So Schoen keeps Daboll and lets Martindale go. Turned out to be the wrong choice. Grade: Failure.

3. Signing Daniel Jones long term, letting Saquon Barkley go to the Eagles. Both terrible decisions. It looked even worse if you watched "Hard Knocks" and you saw Schoen talk about him. Schoen was clueless of Barkley's value to the franchise vs. Jones. Your the freaking GM! That is an integral part of your job, knowing the importance of your personnel. Grade: Failure

4. Biggest move of last off season was to trade for Brian Burns for 2nd and 5th round picks, and then gave him a 5-year, $150 million contract with $87 million of that guaranteed. You give up that much for a guy, he better be a difference maker. But if you watched the Giants last year you know that Burns was not nearly that much of a difference maker. Obviously, since they sucked most of the year. Grade: Failure.

5. One of most important jobs: how you manuever the cap. According to several reliable sources, including Sports Illustrated, the Giants are 14th in cap space. Yet they were arguably, along with the Browns the worst team in the league. So, they are over-paying for the talent they do have on the roster. This of course falls directly on the GM. Grade: Failure

Therefore, the guy has literally succeeded at hardly anything (give him Nabors on the draft and Bobby Okereke on free agency, but not much else) since he has been the GM. Very disappointing.

And it shows you how valuable the GM is in the NFL, for sure. Two bad GM's in a row, along with Jerry Reese also struggling over the last few years of his tenure than ended in 2017 and this is what results: 10 years of the worst franchise (at least record-wise) in all of the NFL.

Over 10 years of lousy football... AND WE'VE HAD ENOUGH!!!
 
LStudfellow said:
Or Kayvon Thibodeaux or Deonte Banks, either.

Goes to show you the difference a good GM versus a bad one makes. Pivotal to the success or failure of a franchise. Sure, it is easy to say that Dave Gettleman was bad... because he was.

But the truth is that Joe Schoen so far has done a particularly lousy job as GM also. I thought he was an excellent hire in 2022. But his track record so far stinks.

To date:
1. Malik Nabors is the first 1st round draft choice he has hit on... 1 for 4. The 2022 draft with Thibodeaux and Neal in particular sticks out as a disaster. Also, not much good has come out of the later rounds either. On his 3 drafts Joe Schoen has been a failure. Grade: Failure

2. Brian Daboll hiring. Looked good for the first year... but then his spat with Wink Martindale that caused Wink to leave, lack of control over the locker room and puzzling in game decisions the last couple of years marks this as a failure also. So Schoen keeps Daboll and lets Martindale go. Turned out to be the wrong choice. Grade: Failure.

3. Signing Daniel Jones long term, letting Saquon Barkley go to the Eagles. Both terrible decisions. It looked even worse if you watched "Hard Knocks" and you saw Schoen talk about him. Schoen was clueless of Barkley's value to the franchise vs. Jones. Your the freaking GM! That is an integral part of your job, knowing the importance of your personnel. Grade: Failure

4. Biggest move of last off season was to trade for Brian Burns for 2nd and 5th round picks, and then gave him a 5-year, $150 million contract with $87 million of that guaranteed. You give up that much for a guy, he better be a difference maker. But if you watched the Giants last year you know that Burns was not nearly that much of a difference maker. Obviously, since they sucked most of the year. Grade: Failure.

5. One of most important jobs: how you manuever the cap. According to several reliable sources, including Sports Illustrated, the Giants are 14th in cap space. Yet they were arguably, along with the Browns the worst team in the league. So, they are over-paying for the talent they do have on the roster. This of course falls directly on the GM. Grade: Failure

Therefore, the guy has literally succeeded at hardly anything (give him Nabors on the draft and Bobby Okereke on free agency, but not much else) since he has been the GM. Very disappointing.

And it shows you how valuable the GM is in the NFL, for sure. Two bad GM's in a row, along with Jerry Reese also struggling over the last few years of his tenure than ended in 2017 and this is what results: 10 years of the worst franchise (at least record-wise) in all of the NFL.

Over 10 years of lousy football... AND WE'VE HAD ENOUGH!!!
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Calling the last ten years of the Giants 'lousy football' is an insult to lousy football.
 
ec33 said:
Ashton Jeanty falls to a good team and let's see how this philosophy works.

Amazingly, an older Barkley was better on a good Eagles team than on a bad Giants team (and the wins having Barkley on your team did more for the Eagles than in knocking the Giants into a worse draft slot).
Expand ...

I think that Barkley hid a lot of Daniel Jones' flaws. Teams loaded the box against the run versus the Barkley and made a horrible QB look competent. With a good QB, he immediately returned to the HOF performance level he showed as rookie. Barkley is the exception to the rule.
 
UCTitleTown said:
The average NFL running backs career is 2 years, much shorter than other positions. You don't waste a 1st round pick on a running back. The NFL is more of a passing league now.
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You’re right…you just wait for your competItor to do it then not resign the guy…and you get him for just $$. Then to really rub it in, you give the guy a chance to have the best season ever by a RB… To top it off, you win the SB.

and just to make it even better, the guy you keep instead of the RB, you cut 2 years after giving him a new deal for 5x what the RB wanted

naw, that could never happen
 
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