My hot take, don't ever draft a running back in the 1st rd. | The Boneyard

My hot take, don't ever draft a running back in the 1st rd.

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Scoe

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I gotta go with the Parcells philosophy here. It's just not worth the risk, even if you hit on the rb your team better have all pros around him to start his career. People will bring up Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys but that was an outlier and the Cowboys had a boatload of picks. As a matter of fact I wouldn't draft a rb till day 3, there are many good rbs that go undrafted every year too.

What did the Vikings win with Peterson, Giants with Saquon and of course Barry Sanders with the Lions, it's always better to have an above average to very good qb and oline then it is to have a great rb.
 
Scoe said:
I gotta go with the Parcells philosophy here. It's just not worth the risk, even if you hit on the rb your team better have all pros around him to start his career. People will bring up Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys but that was an outlier and the Cowboys had a boatload of picks. As a matter of fact I wouldn't draft a rb till day 3, there are many good rbs that go undrafted every year too.

What did the Vikings win with Peterson, Giants with Saquon and of course Barry Sanders with the Lions, it's always better to have an above average to very good qb and oline then it is to have a great rb.
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Multiple reasons this makes sense:

Low shelf life, rarely see value into second contract

Abundance, better to have multiple fresh than 1 horse

It’s more about the OL than the RB (Zeke Elliott)

I would never draft a RB first round.
 
RuffRuff said:
Multiple reasons this makes sense:

Low shelf life, rarely see value into second contract

Abundance, better to have multiple fresh than 1 horse

It’s more about the OL than the RB (Zeke Elliott)

I would never draft a RB first round.
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And using Zeke Elliot as an example, they know this, so start pushing for a big money extension far too soon. And then you're stuck paying huge money for a declining RB. That said, yes, Zeke had major juice when he came out, it wasn't just the OL.
 
That is NOT a hot take. It has been conventional wisdom in the NFL for decades.

In the previous century RBs often went in round one with several at #1 overall. The results were mixed as they are at virtually every position. That may be changing somewhat as every team watched Barkley elevate the entire team in Philadelphia. Two, at least, should go in R1 this year. The biggest change in the draft, IMHO, is that teams now place more emphasis on need than on best player available.

I think that Ernie Accorsi laid out some draft principles that are pretty good. He said.

1. You cannot have too many pass rushers or corner backs.
2. If you project a player as your franchise QB, do what ever it takes to get him.
 
Palatine said:
That is NOT a hot take. It has been conventional wisdom in the NFL for decades.

In the previous century RBs often went in round one with several at #1 overall. The results were mixed as they are at virtually every position. That may be changing somewhat as every team watched Barkley elevate the entire team in Philadelphia. Two, at least, should go in R1 this year. The biggest change in the draft, IMHO, is that teams now place more emphasis on need than on best player available.

I think that Ernie Accorsi laid out some draft principles that are pretty good. He said.

1. You cannot have too many pass rushers or corner backs.
2. If you project a player as your franchise QB, do what ever it takes to get him.
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Can we bring Ernie out of retirement??
 
The average NFL running backs career is 2 years, much shorter than other positions. You don't waste a 1st round pick on a running back. The NFL is more of a passing league now.
 
Ashton Jeanty falls to a good team and let's see how this philosophy works.

Amazingly, an older Barkley was better on a good Eagles team than on a bad Giants team (and the wins having Barkley on your team did more for the Eagles than in knocking the Giants into a worse draft slot).
 
Well more importantly, would you take a RB in he first round in fantasy or go double bigs…I mean double WR 1st two rounds?
 
coachcap said:
Did Parcells come up with this philosophy before or after he drafted running backs in rounds 1 & 2? (Michigan rb who shall remain nameless followed by Joe Morris from Syracuse)
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Ray Perkins was still head coach for that draft (spring 1982). He quit to take over at Alabama when the following (strike) season ended.
 
This always made me smile.

IMG_1250.jpeg
 
I understand the philosophy and don't disagree with it but I also want to add the you should not draft a QB in round one unless you are convinced that he is the right guy.

I still get irritated when I hear alleged experts rehash the 2018 draft knowing what they know now, claim that the Giants still would have been better off drafting Darnold (didn't show he could be an NFL QB until he was with his fourth team) or Rosen (showed basically nothing before he washed out of the league) than Barkley.

Yes, Allen (who many of the same experts claimed was a gamble when the Bills drafted him) turned out to be something very good but he was never among the QB's they said the Giants should have picked.
 
I think we are seeing positional value shift back again. WR is the new RB, the college game is so pass heavy that it's flooding the NFL with talent. Still, you need 6 WR and 3 RB, so it retains value. But the running game is back in the NFL as you'd expect. Teams building a defense to stop the pass are vulnerable to the run.

So yes, you can take a RB in round 1. Worth it just for the 5th year option. But taking one in the top half of round 1 should be really rare and probably reserved for good teams who have a real need and for elite prospects. Jeanty will definitely go high in round 1. It's a very strong RB draft so round 2 will be RB heavy.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
I understand the philosophy and don't disagree with it but I also want to add the you should not draft a QB in round one unless you are convinced that he is the right guy.

I still get irritated when I hear alleged experts rehash the 2018 draft knowing what they know now, claim that the Giants still would have been better off drafting Darnold (didn't show he could be an NFL QB until he was with his fourth team) or Rosen (showed basically nothing before he washed out of the league) than Barkley.

Yes, Allen (who many of the same experts claimed was a gamble when the Bills drafted him) turned out to be something very good but he was never among the QB's they said the Giants should have picked.
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Even Josh Allen wouldn't be very good behind the Giants O line
 
I think versatility in a RB is key and its what makes Saquan so good. He can run for power and finesse he can be an extra WR out of the backfield and act as a TE as well. What I am more concerned about is placing all your eggs in a QB say like a Milroe because he can get you yards with his legs. Sooner or later he is going to be injured like Danny Dimes
 
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