My analysis of the "List"

[CardiffGiant]

It really isn't that difficult to see a compromise where the league goes to 14. The Big12 agrees that it will only take the pro rata share for 2 additional universities but not for all 4, which keeps the networks from getting ripped for the amount they could shell out if the league enforced the contract in full. The league works with the networks to add two schools that add the most value TV wise, and satisfies the interests of the non-Texas schools. Houston and BYU add value to the FB strength of the league, and 2 of Uconn/Conn/UCSF(whatever...one of the Fla schools). Why isn't this a plausible compromise?

 

[junglehusky]

It really isn't that difficult to see a compromise where the league goes to 14. The Big12 agrees that it will only take the pro rata share for 2 additional universities but not for all 4, which keeps the networks from getting ripped for the amount they could shell out if the league enforced the contract in full. The league works with the networks to add two schools that add the most value TV wise, and satisfies the interests of the non-Texas schools. Houston and BYU add value to the FB strength of the league, and 2 of Uconn/Conn/UCSF(whatever...one of the Fla schools). Why isn't this a plausible compromise?

It might be plausible, but taking two extra schools lessens the per-school payout (regardless of the haircut the new schools would take).

 

[CardiffGiant]

It might be plausible, but taking two extra schools lessens the per-school payout (regardless of the haircut the new schools would take).

It does lessen the payout, but one of the repeated reasons for only going to 12, and not 14,is that going to 14 essentially destroy the league's relationship with the broadcast partners because of the size of the payout. The point is that this takes away one of the big obstacles to going to 14, and it makes horse trading easier because there are 2 more slots.

 

[mavblues]

Then why not just go to 12? That would maximize their payout, which is what this (allegedly) is all about.

It's only on the BY and a couple other places on the interwebs that people talk about stabilizing the conference, protecting against future defections, etc. I haven't seen the B12 show any interest in these issues thus far.

 

[CardiffGiant]

Then why not just go to 12? That would maximize their payout, which is what this (allegedly) is all about.

It's only on the BY and a couple other places on the interwebs that people talk about stabilizing the conference, protecting against future defections, etc. I haven't seen the B12 show any interest in these issues thus far.

True. But there will likely be no consensus at 12 based upon the issues presented regarding Houston and BYU. If that is the case, they will need 2 more slots to satisfy the differing interests of everyone involved, including the networks.

 

[buddy]

One final thought - WVa was lucky and unlucky at the same time. They won the battle to enter the Big 12 over UL a school with similar US News academic ranking but when UMd left the ACC the perceived instability caused the conference to grab the best remaining FB school, which would have been WVa had the Big 12 taken UL as Boren of OU wanted. Academics other than that episode does matter to the ACC - the two lowest schools in the US News rankings before UL were FSU at 96 (in the top 100) and NC State at 106 (just outside it). ND was a positive addition as they were 18 on the list. Pitt and Syracuse are in the 60s. UConn at 57 sits in a good place that can be helped further (with regard to the Big 10) by AAU membership by invitation. If UConn just maintains a respectable athletic program they will be desirable to several major conferences. The AAU has to do with research funding and not undergraduate teaching. Many AAU schools have several hundred students in calculus-based physics and still call that education. The higher faculty to student ratio is important to private schools whether they are AAU or not and partly explains their greater cost.

Once you break you own "academics matter" rule, then academics no longer matter. Only conference that cares about academics is possibly B1G and they have no need to expand.

 

[auror]

No matter how good they become, houston will always play third fiddle. I doubt very much ESPN would want to pay UH 30+mil per to be third in a market.

1) This is nonsense. Allegiances change all the time as teams get better/worse. Where was UConn in pecking order of NYC market in 1989? Fanbase is not static, even in the good old boy South.
2) Ranking in a market doesn't matter if enough people in that market will pay for the channel in a bundle. Absolute numbers are what is important, not %. 3rd in Houston (4th largest market) is larger than 1st in some other market. Remember, 1 and 2 would not be in ACC and Houston would be ACC's only TX school, so any subscribers in that football hungry area are 100% net positive.
3) I don't think ACC would expand to just grab Houston, but this is more a hypothetical if BigXII does not pick them, they keep winning at about the same rate, and ACC decides to go to 16 because either ND agreed to join or the P5 all go to 16, etc.

Houston can argue that it's value to TV is additive because there are alumni of other B12 programs around Houston. That does not work if the league they're trying to appeal to is the ACC. Houston's TV market is less valuable to the ACC or any league other than the B12, so if they get left behind they're probably stuck in the AAC.

What? Clarify this for me please. Wouldn't they already have the market if the alumni are living in Houston? Why would adding Houston change that, or even further, help it?

 

[atom58]

Once you break you own "academics matter" rule, then academics no longer matter. Only conference that cares about academics is possibly B1G and they have no need to expand.

That response is incorrect as it fails to consider the context of that time - also it was known that Nebraska might not be renewed as an AAU member when they joined the Big 10 and some were not happy about that prospect. If Kansas (AAU) becomes available and UConn becomes AAU, the Big 10 will expand as I read Delaney is interested in AAU BB schools now b/c of the NCAA tournament.

 

[buddy]

That response is incorrect as it fails to consider the context of that time - also it was known that Nebraska might not be renewed as an AAU member when they joined the Big 10 and some were not happy about that prospect. If Kansas (AAU) becomes available and UConn becomes AAU, the Big 10 will expand as I read Delaney is interested in AAU BB schools now b/c of the NCAA tournament.

There is a tremendous difference between Nebraska's academics and Louisville's academics. Academics and the ACC is fictional. There is no expansion in the next ten years by the B1G.

 

[Adios]

UCF's rep just took a hit from Bruce Miller...

 

[HuskyHawk]

1) This is nonsense. Allegiances change all the time as teams get better/worse. Where was UConn in pecking order of NYC market in 1989? Fanbase is not static, even in the good old boy South.
2) Ranking in a market doesn't matter if enough people in that market will pay for the channel in a bundle. Absolute numbers are what is important, not %. 3rd in Houston (4th largest market) is larger than 1st in some other market. Remember, 1 and 2 would not be in ACC and Houston would be ACC's only TX school, so any subscribers in that football hungry area are 100% net positive.
3) I don't think ACC would expand to just grab Houston, but this is more a hypothetical if BigXII does not pick them, they keep winning at about the same rate, and ACC decides to go to 16 because either ND agreed to join or the P5 all go to 16, etc.



What? Clarify this for me please. Wouldn't they already have the market if the alumni are living in Houston? Why would adding Houston change that, or even further, help it?

Because UT might leave and historical rooting interest in Houston favors A&M over UT. If UT leaves the Big 12 has almost no presence in the city. Baylor would be the closest school.

We will soon see if UT really wants UH. Everyone thought they absolutely did not want Houston.

 

[junglehusky]

What? Clarify this for me please. Wouldn't they already have the market if the alumni are living in Houston? Why would adding Houston change that, or even further, help it?

There's no synergy in Houston with existing ACC alumni bases. There aren't a ton of UNC, Duke FSU alumni living in Houston, but there are for B12 schools. Houston would be synergistic with UT and other B12 alumni living in Houston,but they wouldn't have the same payoff for the ACC. UH doesn't have to own the city of Houston, but it's easier to make a case for them complementing other fanbases.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

That response is incorrect as it fails to consider the context of that time - also it was known that Nebraska might not be renewed as an AAU member when they joined the Big 10 and some were not happy about that prospect. If Kansas (AAU) becomes available and UConn becomes AAU, the Big 10 will expand as I read Delaney is interested in AAU BB schools now b/c of the NCAA tournament.

I was just thinking of the relative valuations of basketball versus football and then upon seeing your comment above Delany ^, it got me to wondering even more so... Has anyone on here done an evaluation of how the television/broadcast rights value of ~12 football games compares to the value of ~ 3o basketball games? Delany is always thinking of the bigger/more valuable picture than the rest of the conferences...

 

[auror]

There's no synergy in Houston with existing ACC alumni bases. There aren't a ton of UNC, Duke FSU alumni living in Houston, but there are for B12 schools. Houston would be synergistic with UT and other B12 alumni living in Houston,but they wouldn't have the same payoff for the ACC. UH doesn't have to own the city of Houston, but it's easier to make a case for them complementing other fanbases.

I still don't get it. Why does the synergy matter? Absolute subscribers to the network channel are all that matters. Houston doesn't get credit for people already subscribed (the synergistic alumni of the other BigXiI schools). Are you assuming the network wouldn't already be offered in the city and only would be if Houston were added? Because your point of the number of BigXII fans already in the city and everyone claiming Houston being already owned by UT & others in other threads would lead me to believe BigXII network would be offered throughout Texas the minute it happens. ACC network would not already be offered so all subscribers are net positive.

 

[MountainMan]

Seems like the real question is what are Fox and ESPN thinking as far as strategy.

Good For UConn
ESPN getting scared of losing UConn to the Big 12 and moves UConn to ACC beforehand. I could totally see this happening as the Big 12 screws around with the public drama during the season. ESPN knows it won't be part of the conference network as it can't possibly afford to do more with the ACCN on the horizon.
FOX wants Eastern Content and asks for the most valuable content available in UConn.
PAC is involved (Possibly Fox) as the PACN needs a boost and the BIg 12 needs a network. Need valuable content in the CEntral/East time zone to compliment the Pacific and Mountain time with UConn and a boost to Western viewership as well as across the country with BYU. A BYU and UConn FB game against a current member, and a few BB and WBB games against current members would give a huge boost to the PACN across the country.

It really isn't that difficult to see a compromise where the league goes to 14. The Big12 agrees that it will only take the pro rata share for 2 additional universities but not for all 4, which keeps the networks from getting ripped for the amount they could shell out if the league enforced the contract in full. The league works with the networks to add two schools that add the most value TV wise, and satisfies the interests of the non-Texas schools. Houston and BYU add value to the FB strength of the league, and 2 of Uconn/Conn/UCSF(whatever...one of the Fla schools). Why isn't this a plausible compromise?

 

[atom58]

There is a tremendous difference between Nebraska's academics and Louisville's academics. Academics and the ACC is fictional. There is no expansion in the next ten years by the B1G.

Your response has nothing to do with the late 2012 situation in the ACC - instead you have changed the subject. Then to top it off you add a non sequitir with the fictional comment, which itself is fictional.

 

[buddy]

Your response has nothing to do with the late 2012 situation in the ACC - instead you have changed the subject. Then to top it off you add a non sequitir with the fictional comment, which itself is fictional.

You are the one who brought up Nebraska not me. You insinuated that the B1G took Nebraska knowing that they would be out of AAU, and thus lowered their academic requirement. You were trying to compare that with the ACC's breaking their own unwritten academic rules for Louisville. I stand by my thought. Academics are meaningless to the ACC. And yes, the B1G has no need to expand.

 

[atom58]

Attempt to be cool, hot.

 

[djct1999]

1) This is nonsense. Allegiances change all the time as teams get better/worse. Where was UConn in pecking order of NYC market in 1989? Fanbase is not static, even in the good old boy South.
2) Ranking in a market doesn't matter if enough people in that market will pay for the channel in a bundle. Absolute numbers are what is important, not %. 3rd in Houston (4th largest market) is larger than 1st in some other market. Remember, 1 and 2 would not be in ACC and Houston would be ACC's only TX school, so any subscribers in that football hungry area are 100% net positive.
3) I don't think ACC would expand to just grab Houston, but this is more a hypothetical if BigXII does not pick them, they keep winning at about the same rate, and ACC decides to go to 16 because either ND agreed to join or the P5 all go to 16, etc.



What? Clarify this for me please. Wouldn't they already have the market if the alumni are living in Houston? Why would adding Houston change that, or even further, help it?

1. Fan base is static. Name one city where an allegiance shifted. Houston is 3rd and always will be 3rd.
2. See 1. No one in Houston is paying for an acc network to watch the Cougars play Bc.
3. Hypothetically, it's do or die with Big12 for Houston. They simply don't add any value and once Herman bolts they instantly become Memphis.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

1. Fan base is static. Name one city where an allegiance shifted. Houston is 3rd and always will be 3rd.

Houston may actually be 4th in the Houston market. LSU has always had strong ties to Houston and a lot of people relocated from New Orleans to Houston after Katrina and never moved back. Its 270 miles from Houston to Baton Rouge, 350 to New Orleans, 240 to Dallas, 95 to A&M, 185 to Waco, 165 to Austin, and 200 to San Antonio.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

If Texas leaves and the Big 12 wants a presence in Houston... Simply add Houston then

I don't understand why you would pick a school to fill a hypothetical need when better ones are on the table and the back up would presumably always be there.

 

[BoomerHusky]

Samething the ACC said about UConn...

 

[Ha Who]

Watching NBC news. Does the Big 12 really want to have their student/athletes travel to Cincy

 

[Charley Horse]

I think the inclusion of Rice and Tulane bodes well for UConn. It signals an affinity for academics (or at least a wink at academics).

But we all know, Rice and Tulane (along with others) are not viable choices. Of those candidates who are widely believed to be the best candidates (Cincy, UofH, BYU and UConn), who has the best academic standing?

I believe that would be UConn.

 

[UConnNick]

Then why not just go to 12? That would maximize their payout, which is what this (allegedly) is all about.

It's only on the BY and a couple other places on the interwebs that people talk about stabilizing the conference, protecting against future defections, etc. I haven't seen the B12 show any interest in these issues thus far.

That's because the idea of UT and OK leaving the conference when the contracts expire is way overblown. UT would have to deal with joining a conference in which they will not be the top dog, and OK probably has to bring OK State along with them for political reasons. The only other recourse for UT is to go independent in football and find a home for it's Olympic sports, but that presents other obstacles, particularly regarding scheduling, and a murkier path to the football playoff round.

 

[shizzle787]

That's because the idea of UT and OK leaving the conference when the contracts expire is way overblown. UT would have to deal with joining a conference in which they will not be the top dog, and OK probably has to bring OK State along with them for political reasons. The only other recourse for UT is to go independent in football and find a home for it's Olympic sports, but that presents other obstacles, particularly regarding scheduling, and a murkier path to the football playoff round.

Not really, Texas can pull a ND in the ACC. Ok and Ok St. Go to SEC. Us and Kansas to B1G.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That's because the idea of UT and OK leaving the conference when the contracts expire is way overblown. UT would have to deal with joining a conference in which they will not be the top dog, and OK probably has to bring OK State along with them for political reasons. The only other recourse for UT is to go independent in football and find a home for it's Olympic sports, but that presents other obstacles, particularly regarding scheduling, and a murkier path to the football playoff round.

There was a window about 4 years ago when the Pac 12 would have taken Texas, Oklahoma and 2 others. That window is closed. It is not clear that Oklahoma even has a life raft out of the Big 12 anymore. I don't think Kansas does.

I think the Big 12 is going to expand, and I like our position right now, but there is a long way to go.