My analysis of the "List" | Page 3 | The Boneyard

My analysis of the "List"

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djct1999 said:
I seriously doubt the ACC is interested in a team that is 3rd and will always be 3rd in its own market.
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I don't. Houston can still add to the ACC with the schools in that conference.
 
djct1999 said:
Really? Name one other conference that would seriously consider a Houston add. I agree, that if the Big12 is simply looking for a money grab and OU and UT know they are bolting after the current GOR, Houston makes sense. Other any other scenario, Houston offers very little. The Sec won't add them. I seriously doubt the ACC is interested in a team that is 3rd and will always be 3rd in its own market.
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Maybe the Pac 12.
 
Butch said:
I don't. Houston can still add to the ACC with the schools in that conference.
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Add what exactly? Truth is, when you strip the subjective nature of actual on field performance away from expansion/realignment and focus on the bottom line, value becomes far more obvious. It is why, even after strong social media support, that Memphis was left out. It is why, in the end, Houston should be as well. They add no financial value for longterm sustainability - to the Big12, the Sec, or the ACC. In many ways, UH is the anti-UConn. They are weak in every metric but recent on field football success. By suggesting UH as a viable candidate, in my mind you are also weakening UConn as one. We can't have it both ways. Which one do you really thing university presidents and TV execs want?
 
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djct1999 said:
I think, unintentionally, you are supporting my argument.
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Never claimed I wasn't.

The way I see it, there are two and only two possibilities for the ACC expanding again:

1) Notre Dame joins for football (would only happen if NBC one days ends their contract with ND).

2) Texas joins with an ND type arrangement (would need assurances that the LHN would remain for as long as ND's deal with NBC.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Never claimed I wasn't.

The way I see it, there are two and only two possibilities for the ACC expanding again:

1) Notre Dame joins for football (would only happen if NBC one days ends their contract with ND).

2) Texas joins with an ND type arrangement (would need assurances that the LHN would remain for as long as ND's deal with NBC.
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There is another way ND could be leveraged into joining a conference. Threatening to take away their P5 status will do the trick.
 
shizzle787 said:
There is another way ND could be leveraged into joining a conference. Threatening to take away their P5 status will do the trick.
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Who exactly would do that?
 
djct1999 said:
Add what exactly? Truth is, when you strip the subjective nature of actual on field performance away from expansion/realignment and focus on the bottom line, value becomes far more obvious. It is why, even after strong social media support, that Memphis was left out. It is why, in the end, Houston should be as well. They add no financial value for longterm sustainability - to the Big12, the Sec, or the ACC. In many ways, UH is the anti-UConn. They are weak in every metric but recent on field football success. By suggesting UH as a viable candidate, in my mind you are also weakening UConn as one. We can't have it both ways. Which one do you really thing university presidents and TV execs want?
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You're conveniently forgetting that Houston is in the 4th largest market, one that the ACC currently has no piece of. Do you think ESPN might want more carriage fees or streaming eyeballs in Texas? Remember, the ACC is a conference WITH a network already. Footprint is even more important to the ACC. Houston has 40,000+ enrollment. It has double the endowment of UConn according to Google. It has wealthy and influential donors. It's tier 1 Carnegie.

Your response will probably be that Houston doesn't offer a large enough share of that market. However, with the trajectory of the program (they brought in their best recruiting class ever this year) and coaching staff, Houston is ranked again this year and definitely not inconceivable they'll be ranked at least one of the next 2 years. With success comes better recruits, fans, and higher market share. Especially since they've had past athletic success; this is a dormant program with woodwork fans and obviously a large alumni base in the market.
 
Not sure of how the collective presidents feel but I imagine ESPN would have no problem dumping Wake to make room for a school like Houston. As the ACC currently sits however, adding one school would be nearly impossible (unless of course ND becomes a full member) and adding two would not be any easier.
 
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Like Louisville, Houston football is peaking at the most opportune time. Not only that, but fans are starting to latch on to them as the next "darling football program".

The most important thing to come out of Houston's win yesterday is the TV rating it drew. That's an astronomical local number, which is what UH is selling. Dallas-Fort Worth drew a huge local too.

Houston:
Okla-Hou: 4.0 overnight & 12.8 in Houston, market’s highest rating for an opening weekend cfb game across ESPN nets

Did a quick lookup. That Houston-OU 12.8 TV number in Houston bigger than any regular-season or New Year's Six CFB game last year in market.

DFW:
DFW Saturday Ratings:
Oklahoma/Houston 7.3
Alabama/USC 5.2
UCLA/Texas A&M 5.0
LSU/Wisconsin 5.0
Astros/Rangers 3.4
SDakSt/TCU 2.0

Houston’s triumph over OU a winner in the ratings, too

Point is: if you don't go to UConn football games, you have to at least turn your TVs/streaming devices to the game. 29K crowds and low TV ratings will not help our cause whatsoever when Houston posts up numbers like that (and yes, a large number of OU fans are certainly embedded in these numbers). BYU also drew over 30K fans to Phoenix last night. They had so many fans there that it sounded like a home game for BYU...in Phoenix...against Arizona.
 
Ldandy said:
Just add Uconn, Cincy, BYU, and Houston and move on with life. These schools are all ready to compete in P5 Conferences now, where as the rest of the schools under consideration have glaring holes in their potential P5 Resumes.

Give the newbies all a reduced share for the remainder of the current TV Deal and then make them whole under the next contract. JMO but 14 makes more sense than 12, as it puts you on par numbers wise with The B1G, SEC, and ACC while providing a hedge against future conference defections.
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As a fan I don't want 14. All that is going to do is make teams like KU and KSU almost never play the Oklahoma and Texas schools in football and play them sparingly in all the other sports as well. That's a terrible option. If that is what they're going to do it would be better if the league just dissolved and let the chips fall where they may. 14 is a bad number for the Big 12 and I highly doubt the league expands that large at least at this point.

What I think is going to happen is the league will expand by 2 because that is the best formula for advantage into the football playoffs. It's going to be 2 of BYU/UConn and Cincinnati. I'm hoping that it is Uconn and Cincinnati but I could easily see it being BYU and Uconn as those are clearly the two best options that look most like P5 schools. And actually if it is BYU/Uconn the conference doesn't look like it got watered down at all. In fact it looks at least as strong as the original Big 12 if not stronger brand wise. The only problem with it is travel, but, I'm sure in time we'd all get used to it. Just say no to 14. If you get into the league you're going to want to be playing KU/OU/ Texas etc on a yearly basis or at least every other year not every 4 years and only once at home in 8 years.
 
BlueHen said:
There are 5 P5 conferences, none of whom want ND to join a conference other than theirs. There is no incentive for the SEC, B1G, Pac-12 and Big 12 to make a rule change that forces ND into the ACC.
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It wouldn't force ND into the ACC. Remember that the B1G could be in the running too. If we go to a P4, the SEC and Pac 12 have no chance of getting ND, but if they benefit by colluding with the other power conferences to get particular Big 12 schools in exchange for forcing ND to either join the ACC or B1G, they might play.
 
Dooley said:
Point is: if you don't go to UConn football games, you have to at least turn your TVs/streaming devices to the game. 29K crowds and low TV ratings will not help our cause whatsoever when Houston posts up numbers like that (and yes, a large number of OU fans are certainly embedded in these numbers). BYU also drew over 30K fans to Phoenix last night. They had so many fans there that it sounded like a home game for BYU...in Phoenix...against Arizona.
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Are Hartford TV numbers Thursday available?
 
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shizzle787 said:
It wouldn't force ND into the ACC. Remember that the B1G could be in the running too. If we go to a P4, the SEC and Pac 12 have no chance of getting ND, but if they benefit by colluding with the other power conferences to get particular Big 12 schools in exchange for forcing ND to either join the ACC or B1G, they might play.
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You're reaching, by a lot.

We're still at P5, let's wait until we get to P4 before we start with the hypotheticals.
How do you know that the Pac-12 and SEC have no shot at ND?
What kind of deal would the Pac-12 and SEC make in exchange for forcing ND to join a rival conference. It would have to be a pretty good deal.
ND wants to stay independent, and may do so even if it means no playoffs. It would be a joke to have a 4 team playoff and exclude an undefeated ND.
If the ACC and B1G mastermind a rule change with the idea of forcing ND to join a conference, what guarantee do they have that ND chooses them. ND might not want to have a shotgun wedding with a conference that is trying to force it's hand.
 
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junglehusky said:
According to Butch in the FB board - golf championships. Maybe ease off the chronic dude - all things in moderation.
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That was sarcasm....

And you are overrating the effects. Lay off the glue. :p
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Looking at the cutdown list, I don't think Texas, TCU, Texas Tech or Baylor want another Texas team in the Big 12. They have created a scenario where now they don't have to take one.

The tiebreaker would also work to Cincinnati's benefit, but not to BYU's.
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When the SWC broke up Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas A@M left Houston, TCU, SMU, and Rice behind and never blinked. The only reason TCU finally found a spot was Texas A@M leaving, that's the spot they got. When Missouri left, they went after West Virginia, the BIG 12 doesn't need another Texas school, that's what caused the SWC to fail, too many Texas schools.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Not sure of how the collective presidents feel but I imagine ESPN would have no problem dumping Wake to make room for a school like Houston. As the ACC currently sits however, adding one school would be nearly impossible (unless of course ND becomes a full member) and adding two would not be any easier.
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Again no P5 will be kicked out unless their is conference implosion. They won the golden ticket by being part of the conferences prior to this mass cluster....

ACC does not want Houston. It is ND or on the odd chance give TX a sweet heart deal to be the opposite of ND in who they play in football.
 
How can ESPN argue at this point that adding 4 teams is not worth the price increase after those Houston-Oklahoma TV numbers?
 
auror said:
You're conveniently forgetting that Houston is in the 4th largest market, one that the ACC currently has no piece of. Do you think ESPN might want more carriage fees or streaming eyeballs in Texas? Remember, the ACC is a conference WITH a network already. Footprint is even more important to the ACC. Houston has 40,000+ enrollment. It has double the endowment of UConn according to Google. It has wealthy and influential donors. It's tier 1 Carnegie.

Your response will probably be that Houston doesn't offer a large enough share of that market. However, with the trajectory of the program (they brought in their best recruiting class ever this year) and coaching staff, Houston is ranked again this year and definitely not inconceivable they'll be ranked at least one of the next 2 years. With success comes better recruits, fans, and higher market share. Especially since they've had past athletic success; this is a dormant program with woodwork fans and obviously a large alumni base in the market.
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No matter how good they become, houston will always play third fiddle. I doubt very much ESPN would want to pay UH 30+mil per to be third in a market.
 
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Houston can argue that it's value to TV is additive because there are alumni of other B12 programs around Houston. That does not work if the league they're trying to appeal to is the ACC. Houston's TV market is less valuable to the ACC or any league other than the B12, so if they get left behind they're probably stuck in the AAC.
 
sub legacy said:
Same here. I've said it before, if they expand by four, those would be exactly the four I'd go with:

BYU
UConn
Cincy
Houston
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Every sane person agrees with this list. But when has realignment ever been sane or rational?

Expect the unexpected.
 
DiacosArmy said:
I kinda agree that putting Rice and SMU on the list is bad for UH because they can now say "we have decided to not add additional TX schools which is easier than knocking out UH alone.

. Not realistic.

CSU may scare me more than any other school.

USF/UCF. No way they add both this sh1tshows and they're worthless alone.

Tulane. Kinda interesting. They're always on the long of teams for every league but I don't think they're ever taken seriously. Feel like they're on to show us they're taking academics considertion seriously.
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If this all goes to hell and we don't get a deserved invitation, I hope at some point we look at luring Colorado State and Air Force away from the MWC. I doubt it would actually happen.
 
As someone who watches the ACC closely and as a grad of one ACC school, I think any Lone Star State school not named UT would be unlikely in that conference. UH would be on an island like WVa is now and unfortunately for UH their US News rating is even worse. At least Indiana (ND), Kentucky (UL), and Virginia (UVa, Va Tech) are contiguous states. (Even if UT joined, they would need an ND type deal b/c of the LHN. Their non-revenue or Olympic sports would not be on the ACC Channel, unlike ND who will get a full share of that. It is well known that they entered into negotiations with the ACC in 2011 only to leverage the Pac 12. Also, former AD Deloss Dodds told their boosters UT had no interest in joining a "midwest conference" (the Big 10). Even Pac 12 membership would take them out of Eastern times with their games. They didn't like the SEC b/c there was no interest in improving the academics there. Unless it is partial membership with the ACC, the LHN will keep them out of every other conference as full members through 2031 so I think they will stay home. If UConn becomes a member of the Big 12, they will be safe for the next 15 years at least.)

As far as the ACC itself, the new GOR locks everyone in until 2036 and there can be no threats of leaving if a BB school (with an FBS (1-A) FB team) in the US News top 100 is added. I do believe that the academic schools now will block any single new candidate not in the US News top 100. They didn't do that in 2012 b/c of perceived instability but that is gone, long gone with a GOR going to 2036, and even FSU with a large research enterprise seeks to become an AAU member. The only exception to that I think would be if the Big 12 came to an end - OU, OK State, Kansas, and WVa with UT as a a partial member could be possible, but an 18 team conference plus two partial members is a pipe dream at present - smoking something other than tobacco from North Carolina.
 
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junglehusky said:
Houston can argue that it's value to TV is additive because there are alumni of other B12 programs around Houston. That does not work if the league they're trying to appeal to is the ACC. Houston's TV market is less valuable to the ACC or any league other than the B12, so if they get left behind they're probably stuck in the AAC.
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Unless the ACC & ESPN, with their new network, can figure a way to monetize the 4th largest city in the country
 
One final thought - WVa was lucky and unlucky at the same time. They won the battle to enter the Big 12 over UL a school with similar US News academic ranking but when UMd left the ACC the perceived instability caused the conference to grab the best remaining FB school, which would have been WVa had the Big 12 taken UL as Boren of OU wanted. Academics other than that episode does matter to the ACC - the two lowest schools in the US News rankings before UL were FSU at 96 (in the top 100) and NC State at 106 (just outside it). ND was a positive addition as they were 18 on the list. Pitt and Syracuse are in the 60s. UConn at 57 sits in a good place that can be helped further (with regard to the Big 10) by AAU membership by invitation. If UConn just maintains a respectable athletic program they will be desirable to several major conferences. The AAU has to do with research funding and not undergraduate teaching. Many AAU schools have several hundred students in calculus-based physics and still call that education. The higher faculty to student ratio is important to private schools whether they are AAU or not and partly explains their greater cost.
 
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