My analysis of the "List"

[Adios]

I think CSU is also lip service. Why the heck would the Big 12 want to expand west? They would probably add BYU for FB only. If Memphis was cast out over academics, then Houston's chances can't be too good, with Rice being included in the list of finalists.

 

[BKarchitect]

To be fair, Houston is a significant level above Memphis in the "money" categories of academics like R&D expenditures and endowment and at least they are a level 1 Carnegie research university. South Florida is actually a huge research school, I think they are like 40th in nation in R&D expenditures, ahead of some Big Ten teams even. They don't hit a lot of high notes with their undergrad programs but they are a cut above Memphis, UCF and the other failed entries.

 

[Mots010]

CSU is laying the biggest turd you can imagine versus their in-state rivals. Now, I've always been on the "don't overreact to one season...let alone one quarter of one game" in this process group - I certainly was last night with the close calls for UConn and UC. But - the level of ineptness CSU is showing on the biggest stae (opening game of the year, in Denver @ Invesco, versus your hated rivals with the Big 12 expansion process as a backdrop) - I mean, it's so bad that this one moment might frame why you don't take CSU right now in a very clear manner.

CSU is embarrassing themselves, but they probably have about 30k fans in the stands and some decent recent history. Truth be told, I live in colorado, my wife is a CSU grad and I would kill to have Uconn visiting Colorado on a regular basis.

 

[UC1995]

Now that they are saying more and more that BYU only chance may be football only leads me to think that they need another football only to go with them. We need BYU to go so they go to 14. Otherwise I just don't see us making it. UCONN makes no sense football only but neither does the Big 12. So that might be our only lifeline.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I could well be wrong but I have felt from the beginning that there are only four schools that are really being considered; BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UConn. One of BYU and UConn will need to be added in order to keep the television partners happy. Adding both would create a logistic problem considering the size the geographic footprint would grow to and almost by default require a four school expansion.

Houston adds zero in the eyes of the television partners and does little to nothing for that conference members not named Texas. Their only chance would be with a four school expansion.

Cincinnati is likely the best candidate as #2 in a two school expansion even though individually they would be behind both BYU and UConn. In a two school expansion, one of those would be the leading candidate and Cincinnati would be a more logical second school than the other of UConn and BYU.

BYU's biggest issue is their baggage. Ours is convincing that conference's leadership that we can consistently perform at a competent level as a football program (I believe Benedict is our ace in the hole here).

My biggest concern is that it will be career academics, not business minds making the final decisions.

 

[uconNYC]

Can't see anyone other than Cincy, UConn, UH and BYU get a serious look. CSU is probably just there to provide a travel partner option for BYU in case Big 12 decides on a western strategy. Rice and SMU being shortlisted hurts UH - hopefully it "splits vote" and provides UT a convenient excuse as to why UH did not get selected.

The more I think about it, the more I like our chance presuming the Big 12 expands.

 

[uc1974]

Rice is a great academic school and a real financial bargain. It also has fewer students than my HS did back when I was graduated back in the 60's. It is impossible for them to recruit to compete in anything other than baseball. SMU is also small, not as academically well thought of and they would not be able to recruit FB long term and I suspect their BB program will return to mediocre very soon. Tulane is in NO and gave up on truly big time athletics when they left the SEC years ago. AFA just being honored, not a serious candidate. They cannot compete in other than FB and that, only sometimes. USF/UCF will sometimes be able to compete in FB but never in hoops and academically they are "meh." UH is a another Texas school with a good FB team (now), terrible hoops, "meh" academics and limited fan base. I have no opinion on CSU but cannot imagine them w/o BYU and BYU carries a specialized fan base and religious restrictions that make Baylor look liberal. I think its either zero or 2 and logic dictates UC and UConn. Logic, of course, may not have anything to do with the final result. We'll see soon enough.

 

[ASweet3781]

Now that it is confirmed the 11 schools who made the cut will give a presentation next week to the Big 12 in Dallas, what do you think our plan for this will be? Who will give the presentation?

I have always contended that no school should be able to give the presentation we could give. Academics, athletic accomplishments, brand, our tv market and location, should be compelling evidence when presented in person if done in a dramatic and compelling way.

If the Horde is reading this it would be nice to maybe try to get some intel as to what UConn's pitch will be.

Hopefully UConn has been working on it's video/multimedia for this moment. I'd include the Robert Griffin quote on the RENT for starters. Images of what the RENT looked like for Michigan, BC, WVU,, Rutgers games to remind them what a power 5 league can do for our attendance. A montage of Raff/McDonough/etc commenting on the pro UConn crowds at the MSG during some of our big games there also. A live skype ride of UConn fans at a Metro North stop arriving at Yankee Stadium by presentations end? Brain storming here lol.

 

[MountainMan]

Considering how crazy the list was originally I"m surprised Hawaii wasn't mentioned.

CSU is just not financially viable IMO. 38 Million $ AD with over 50% subsidy.

When you look at CSU and AFA on paper AFA actually seems to be the better choice with a 50 million $ AD and better fan support. AFA is kinda like Rice in that they have something none of the other candidates have.

SMU would likely have a top end similar to TCU. They also have the added benefit of having the most $ out of all the candidates with the possible exception of BYU. What I mean by that is they have wealthy boosters who will get involved if the Big 12 invite required $ for one reason or another. But there is no way they get a serious look at this point.

I really think the Big 12 ends up with UConn as aside from Houston none of the candidates are really close to existing members and you have to think that some sort of a network will be involved at some point which will be a huge plus for UConn's chances.

One odd combo that's been mentioned would be BYU and AFA as football only with Cinci and UConn as full members. I flight to the Mountain time zone per season is manageable and East West divisions would make sense.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

One other thought on the "0 additions" scenario. Flugs has argued the networks do not want to set a precedent by paying the Big 12 "ransom" not to expand. I think the bigger issue is that the math does not support paying ransom to the Big 12 NOT to expand.

Let's assume it is $25 million per team per year increase built into the Big 12 TV contract. At first blush, ESPN paying the Big 12 $20 million NOT to expand would seem like a better solution than paying $50 million to add 2 teams, but at $20 million, ESPN is pricing the marginal value of the two new programs at $30 million or $15 million each. If ESPN priced UConn and Cincinnati at about $12 million a year each in the final Big East contract, why not just pay the incremental $30 million and get 2 more schools and their football and basketball teams?

Given that situation, the tipping point at which ESPN would rather not add the new teams is probably big enough, that the available ransom payment is too small to justify the Big 12 holding the networks up. If the ransom was $10 million, for example, maybe ESPN would pay the ransom because the incremental cost of adding the two additional teams would be $40 million, and maybe UConn and Cincinnati don't justify that much money. That said, is a $10 million ransom big enough for the Big 12 to even justify pissing off the networks by asking for it? It would certainly seem like the long-term benefits of 2 extra teams and increased likelihood of getting a team into the Playoffs would more than justify not taking the ransom and just adding the teams, to say nothing of the new market access.

Furthermore, the Big 12 has more leverage over the new teams tha they do over ESPN. ESPN might pay the Big 12 $10 million a year NOT to add two new schools, but he schools themselves would likely be willing to pay a lot more than that. The math works out a little better for the Big 12 to add 4 teams, but even if the Big 12 could command $20 or $25 million of ransom from ESPN for not adding 4 teams, it would also mean the payout per school to the Big 12 would be more from adding 4 schools.

All of this leads me to believe that "doing nothing" is less likely than the media would indicate. I think it is still very much on the table, but it is probably not the most attractive solution for the Big 12.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

After all this circus, b12 would take a major pounding in the media if they don't expand. UConn adds a ton of value to the conference. In the end, I still see UConn/Cincy/UH/BYU. We can also replace BYU with UCF or USF.

 

[coachcap]

Now that it is confirmed the 11 schools who made the cut will give a presentation next week to the Big 12 in Dallas, what do you think our plan for this will be? Who will give the presentation?

I have always contended that no school should be able to give the presentation we could give. Academics, athletic accomplishments, brand, our tv market and location, should be compelling evidence when presented in person if done in a dramatic and compelling way.

If the Horde is reading this it would be nice to maybe try to get some intel as to what UConn's pitch will be.

Hopefully UConn has been working on it's video/multimedia for this moment. I'd include the Robert Griffin quote on the RENT for starters. Images of what the RENT looked like for Michigan, BC, WVU,, Rutgers games to remind them what a power 5 league can do for our attendance. A montage of Raff/McDonough/etc commenting on the pro UConn crowds at the MSG during some of our big games there also. A live skype ride of UConn fans at a Metro North stop arriving at Yankee Stadium by presentations end? Brain storming here lol.

There is only one person that I trust to competently give UConn's presentation, & Suzie better be on her A game. Situations like this are why Gov. Molloy & Co. hired her: to shine in the boardroom setting. If she pulls this off, SHE could run for Governor & win in a landslide.

 

[djct1999]

There is absolutely no way that the Big12 adds Colorado State. To be honest, I am not even convinced Cincinnati is a viable option. Fact is, expansion is about business, not a football game. Only 2 schools on this list have the national brand and resources to transition smoothly. If they expand, and thats a big if to me, UConn will be included. 2 teams, 4 teams, hell, even 1 team.

 

[sub legacy]

Can't see anyone other than Cincy, UConn, UH and BYU get a serious look. CSU is probably just there to provide a travel partner option for BYU in case Big 12 decides on a western strategy. Rice and SMU being shortlisted hurts UH - hopefully it "splits vote" and provides UT a convenient excuse as to why UH did not get selected.

The more I think about it, the more I like our chance presuming the Big 12 expands.

Same here. I've said it before, if they expand by four, those would be exactly the four I'd go with:

BYU
UConn
Cincy
Houston

 

[BKarchitect]

There is absolutely no way that the Big12 adds Colorado State. To be honest, I am not even convinced Cincinnati is a viable option. Fact is, expansion is about business, not a football game. Only 2 schools on this list have the national brand and resources to transition smoothly. If they expand, and thats a big if to me, UConn will be included. 2 teams, 4 teams, hell, even 1 team.

Cincinnati has a lot going for it. I'll give you that BYU and UConn are the better brands but UC's overall resume is good. They got a solid athletic department from both a football and basketball perspective. They are a great research university with a big, fat $1.2+ billion endowment. They've put in a ton of work over the past few decades changing the university. The one thing that hurts them the most is that they can't remove their "city" moniker. They really are nothing like Houston or Memphis or UCF...schools that get branded with the dreaded "city" or "commuter" label.

I don't think BYU's brand is so much better that it outweighs all the concerns Big 12 members have with them as a partner. It's like Notre Dame light but with added yucky baggage. With what Baylor is going through right now - you better believe the presidents are going to avoid any controversy that they can. I still think they are a front-runner but if it's just two, I can easily see UConn and UC over UConn or UC and BYU. It makes more sense logistically, it helps Fox with more eastern inventory and there's nothing about UConn or UC that is going to scare university presidents or Bowlsby off.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Now that it is confirmed the 11 schools who made the cut will give a presentation next week to the Big 12 in Dallas, what do you think our plan for this will be? Who will give the presentation?

I have always contended that no school should be able to give the presentation we could give. Academics, athletic accomplishments, brand, our tv market and location, should be compelling evidence when presented in person if done in a dramatic and compelling way.

If the Horde is reading this it would be nice to maybe try to get some intel as to what UConn's pitch will be.

Hopefully UConn has been working on it's video/multimedia for this moment. I'd include the Robert Griffin quote on the RENT for starters. Images of what the RENT looked like for Michigan, BC, WVU,, Rutgers games to remind them what a power 5 league can do for our attendance. A montage of Raff/McDonough/etc commenting on the pro UConn crowds at the MSG during some of our big games there also. A live skype ride of UConn fans at a Metro North stop arriving at Yankee Stadium by presentations end? Brain storming here lol.

and video of UCONN fans chanting in Notre Dame Stadium walkways on their way out after that big win.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Houston lost most of their political leverage with the inclusion of Rice and SMU. What Texas politician is going to go all-in for Houston over those other 2 schools and risk pissing off their respective alumni? If Houston gets in, it is going to be on its own merits, and that gets a little tricky too. From a basketball perspective, SMU is better than Houston. While the Big 12 already has DFW, Rice provides a second option in Houston, and one with much, much better academics. Athletically, Rice is useless and as a small school it doesn't carry its market, but it is in Houston and has a lot of powerful alumni in the state. Houston has a pretty good recent history of football, and Houston is a big market but one that the Big 12 already has inroads in.

As political cover for the Texas schools to split their votes, Rice and SMU are brilliant. I suspect the northern 6 schools had no problem adding them to the list.

After sleeping on it, I think UCF and USF are just there as future concessions to ESPN.

Colorado State is a real threat.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Houston lost most of their political leverage with the inclusion of Rice and SMU. What Texas politician is going to go all-in for Houston over those other 2 schools and risk pissing off their respective alumni? If Houston gets in, it is going to be on its own merits, and that gets a little tricky too. From a basketball perspective, SMU is better than Houston. While the Big 12 already has DFW, Rice provides a second option in Houston, and one with much, much better academics. Athletically, Rice is useless and as a small school it doesn't carry its market, but it is in Houston and has a lot of powerful alumni in the state. Houston has a pretty good recent history of football, and Houston is a big market but one that the Big 12 already has inroads in.

As political cover for the Texas schools to split their votes, Rice and SMU are brilliant. I suspect the northern 6 schools had no problem adding them to the list.

After sleeping on it, I think UCF and USF are just there as future concessions to ESPN.

Colorado State is a real threat.

agreed on the Texas and Florida (UCF/USF) aspects.

How about this?... CSU was thrown in as a pawn such that BYU will not be chosen and by saying they considered a BYU/CSU western combo, they can defend/stand on saying there is greater value in going east versus west. This results in UCONN and Cinci getting in.
Done.

 

[CL82]

Houston lost most of their political leverage with the inclusion of Rice and SMU. What Texas politician is going to go all-in for Houston over those other 2 schools and risk pissing off their respective alumni? If Houston gets in, it is going to be on its own merits, and that gets a little tricky too. From a basketball perspective, SMU is better than Houston. While the Big 12 already has DFW, Rice provides a second option in Houston, and one with much, much better academics. Athletically, Rice is useless and as a small school it doesn't carry its market, but it is in Houston and has a lot of powerful alumni in the state. Houston has a pretty good recent history of football, and Houston is a big market but one that the Big 12 already has inroads in.

As political cover for the Texas schools to split their votes, Rice and SMU are brilliant. I suspect the northern 6 schools had no problem adding them to the list.

After sleeping on it, I think UCF and USF are just there as future concessions to ESPN.

Colorado State is a real threat.

By making SMU and Rice "finalists" you also give them a chance to make a presentation to the Big 12, which can then go with someone, in all likelihood, that they had already chosen and say "based upon the presentations." That gives cover in a different way because one can argue that it isn't that X didn't vote for Y it's that Y's presentation wasn't as strong. Also keep in mind that as a Big 12 finalist, these schools all just got a defacto bump over the cancelled schools. In a lot ways it is analogous to colleges soliciting students who don't meet their admission criteria so that their application to acceptance ratio looks "highly selective." In any event in a later round, SMU will be able to tout itself Big 12 finalist, while Memphis will not. One of the things CR has taught us is that perception is reality.

 

[jostar1]

Hopefully UConn has been working on it's video/multimedia for this moment. I'd include the Robert Griffin quote on the RENT for starters. Images of what the RENT looked like for Michigan, BC, WVU,, Rutgers games to remind them what a power 5 league can do for our attendance. A montage of Raff/McDonough/etc commenting on the pro UConn crowds at the MSG during some of our big games there also. A live skype ride of UConn fans at a Metro North stop arriving at Yankee Stadium by presentations end? Brain storming here lol.

I hope that they end it with the UConn: The View From Above video. That gives the sense that we are a land grant university. It also shows the horses and cows.

 

[auror]

agreed on the Texas and Florida (UCF/USF) aspects.

How about this?... CSU was thrown in as a pawn such that BYU will not be chosen and by saying they considered a BYU/CSU western combo, they can defend/stand on saying there is greater value in going east versus west. This results in UCONN and Cinci getting in.
Done.

I think this is ascribing way too much strategy to these decisions. That level of strategy and tactics require a united chain of command. This process is being guided by a group of individuals with differing interests and opinions. The simpler truth is probably that some of the Presidents support different paths. They have to reach consensus, so they're methodically eliminating things they can all agree on (they want better academic schools, etc.).

 

[CL82]

This may give some flavor, note the 'subtle' reference to our backyard.

 

[junglehusky]

One other thought on the "0 additions" scenario. Flugs has argued the networks do not want to set a precedent by paying the Big 12 "ransom" not to expand. I think the bigger issue is that the math does not support paying ransom to the Big 12 NOT to expand.

Let's assume it is $25 million per team per year increase built into the Big 12 TV contract. At first blush, ESPN paying the Big 12 $20 million NOT to expand would seem like a better solution than paying $50 million to add 2 teams, but at $20 million, ESPN is pricing the marginal value of the two new programs at $30 million or $15 million each. If ESPN priced UConn and Cincinnati at about $12 million a year each in the final Big East contract, why not just pay the incremental $30 million and get 2 more schools and their football and basketball teams?

Given that situation, the tipping point at which ESPN would rather not add the new teams is probably big enough, that the available ransom payment is too small to justify the Big 12 holding the networks up. If the ransom was $10 million, for example, maybe ESPN would pay the ransom because the incremental cost of adding the two additional teams would be $40 million, and maybe UConn and Cincinnati don't justify that much money. That said, is a $10 million ransom big enough for the Big 12 to even justify pissing off the networks by asking for it? It would certainly seem like the long-term benefits of 2 extra teams and increased likelihood of getting a team into the Playoffs would more than justify not taking the ransom and just adding the teams, to say nothing of the new market access.

Furthermore, the Big 12 has more leverage over the new teams tha they do over ESPN. ESPN might pay the Big 12 $10 million a year NOT to add two new schools, but he schools themselves would likely be willing to pay a lot more than that. The math works out a little better for the Big 12 to add 4 teams, but even if the Big 12 could command $20 or $25 million of ransom from ESPN for not adding 4 teams, it would also mean the payout per school to the Big 12 would be more from adding 4 schools.

All of this leads me to believe that "doing nothing" is less likely than the media would indicate. I think it is still very much on the table, but it is probably not the most attractive solution for the Big 12.

I don't think the impetus for staying at 10 is the B12 presidents getting together to extract a payout from ESPN. The impetus is more likely 10 presidents with different priorities not having the political will to sort out what they want to their league to look like in five years. Or if the Big 12 should even exist in 5 years.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

This may give some flavor, note the 'subtle' reference to our backyard.

The video just raised a question. The XII does not sponsor men's soccer. The only XII school that has men's soccer is West Virginia and they play in the MAC. If UConn joins, maybe men's soccer goes to the Big East? If Cincy joins at the same time, I guess they would join WVU in the MAC. XII does sponsor women's soccer.

 

[shizzle787]

Rice is probably the biggest winner as at worst they are going to the AAC or MW.