My analysis of the "List"

[BlueHen]

Someone who wants ND in their conference for football.

There are 5 P5 conferences, none of whom want ND to join a conference other than theirs. There is no incentive for the SEC, B1G, Pac-12 and Big 12 to make a rule change that forces ND into the ACC.

 

[shizzle787]

There are 5 P5 conferences, none of whom want ND to join a conference other than theirs. There is no incentive for the SEC, B1G, Pac-12 and Big 12 to make a rule change that forces ND into the ACC.

It wouldn't force ND into the ACC. Remember that the B1G could be in the running too. If we go to a P4, the SEC and Pac 12 have no chance of getting ND, but if they benefit by colluding with the other power conferences to get particular Big 12 schools in exchange for forcing ND to either join the ACC or B1G, they might play.

 

[psilotic]

Point is: if you don't go to UConn football games, you have to at least turn your TVs/streaming devices to the game. 29K crowds and low TV ratings will not help our cause whatsoever when Houston posts up numbers like that (and yes, a large number of OU fans are certainly embedded in these numbers). BYU also drew over 30K fans to Phoenix last night. They had so many fans there that it sounded like a home game for BYU...in Phoenix...against Arizona.

Are Hartford TV numbers Thursday available?

 

[BlueHen]

It wouldn't force ND into the ACC. Remember that the B1G could be in the running too. If we go to a P4, the SEC and Pac 12 have no chance of getting ND, but if they benefit by colluding with the other power conferences to get particular Big 12 schools in exchange for forcing ND to either join the ACC or B1G, they might play.

You're reaching, by a lot.

We're still at P5, let's wait until we get to P4 before we start with the hypotheticals.
How do you know that the Pac-12 and SEC have no shot at ND?
What kind of deal would the Pac-12 and SEC make in exchange for forcing ND to join a rival conference. It would have to be a pretty good deal.
ND wants to stay independent, and may do so even if it means no playoffs. It would be a joke to have a 4 team playoff and exclude an undefeated ND.
If the ACC and B1G mastermind a rule change with the idea of forcing ND to join a conference, what guarantee do they have that ND chooses them. ND might not want to have a shotgun wedding with a conference that is trying to force it's hand.

 

[Adios]

According to Butch in the FB board - golf championships. Maybe ease off the chronic dude - all things in moderation.

That was sarcasm....

And you are overrating the effects. Lay off the glue.

 

[baggerbob]

Looking at the cutdown list, I don't think Texas, TCU, Texas Tech or Baylor want another Texas team in the Big 12. They have created a scenario where now they don't have to take one.

The tiebreaker would also work to Cincinnati's benefit, but not to BYU's.

When the SWC broke up Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas A@M left Houston, TCU, SMU, and Rice behind and never blinked. The only reason TCU finally found a spot was Texas A@M leaving, that's the spot they got. When Missouri left, they went after West Virginia, the BIG 12 doesn't need another Texas school, that's what caused the SWC to fail, too many Texas schools.

 

[UC1995]

Not sure of how the collective presidents feel but I imagine ESPN would have no problem dumping Wake to make room for a school like Houston. As the ACC currently sits however, adding one school would be nearly impossible (unless of course ND becomes a full member) and adding two would not be any easier.

Again no P5 will be kicked out unless their is conference implosion. They won the golden ticket by being part of the conferences prior to this mass cluster....

ACC does not want Houston. It is ND or on the odd chance give TX a sweet heart deal to be the opposite of ND in who they play in football.

 

[ASweet3781]

How can ESPN argue at this point that adding 4 teams is not worth the price increase after those Houston-Oklahoma TV numbers?

 

[djct1999]

You're conveniently forgetting that Houston is in the 4th largest market, one that the ACC currently has no piece of. Do you think ESPN might want more carriage fees or streaming eyeballs in Texas? Remember, the ACC is a conference WITH a network already. Footprint is even more important to the ACC. Houston has 40,000+ enrollment. It has double the endowment of UConn according to Google. It has wealthy and influential donors. It's tier 1 Carnegie.

Your response will probably be that Houston doesn't offer a large enough share of that market. However, with the trajectory of the program (they brought in their best recruiting class ever this year) and coaching staff, Houston is ranked again this year and definitely not inconceivable they'll be ranked at least one of the next 2 years. With success comes better recruits, fans, and higher market share. Especially since they've had past athletic success; this is a dormant program with woodwork fans and obviously a large alumni base in the market.

No matter how good they become, houston will always play third fiddle. I doubt very much ESPN would want to pay UH 30+mil per to be third in a market.

 

[junglehusky]

Houston can argue that it's value to TV is additive because there are alumni of other B12 programs around Houston. That does not work if the league they're trying to appeal to is the ACC. Houston's TV market is less valuable to the ACC or any league other than the B12, so if they get left behind they're probably stuck in the AAC.

 

[Redding Husky]

Same here. I've said it before, if they expand by four, those would be exactly the four I'd go with:

BYU
UConn
Cincy
Houston

Every sane person agrees with this list. But when has realignment ever been sane or rational?

Expect the unexpected.

 

[Redding Husky]

I kinda agree that putting Rice and SMU on the list is bad for UH because they can now say "we have decided to not add additional TX schools which is easier than knocking out UH alone.

. Not realistic.

CSU may scare me more than any other school.

USF/UCF. No way they add both this sh1tshows and they're worthless alone.

Tulane. Kinda interesting. They're always on the long of teams for every league but I don't think they're ever taken seriously. Feel like they're on to show us they're taking academics considertion seriously.

If this all goes to hell and we don't get a deserved invitation, I hope at some point we look at luring Colorado State and Air Force away from the MWC. I doubt it would actually happen.

 

[atom58]

As someone who watches the ACC closely and as a grad of one ACC school, I think any Lone Star State school not named UT would be unlikely in that conference. UH would be on an island like WVa is now and unfortunately for UH their US News rating is even worse. At least Indiana (ND), Kentucky (UL), and Virginia (UVa, Va Tech) are contiguous states. (Even if UT joined, they would need an ND type deal b/c of the LHN. Their non-revenue or Olympic sports would not be on the ACC Channel, unlike ND who will get a full share of that. It is well known that they entered into negotiations with the ACC in 2011 only to leverage the Pac 12. Also, former AD Deloss Dodds told their boosters UT had no interest in joining a "midwest conference" (the Big 10). Even Pac 12 membership would take them out of Eastern times with their games. They didn't like the SEC b/c there was no interest in improving the academics there. Unless it is partial membership with the ACC, the LHN will keep them out of every other conference as full members through 2031 so I think they will stay home. If UConn becomes a member of the Big 12, they will be safe for the next 15 years at least.)

As far as the ACC itself, the new GOR locks everyone in until 2036 and there can be no threats of leaving if a BB school (with an FBS (1-A) FB team) in the US News top 100 is added. I do believe that the academic schools now will block any single new candidate not in the US News top 100. They didn't do that in 2012 b/c of perceived instability but that is gone, long gone with a GOR going to 2036, and even FSU with a large research enterprise seeks to become an AAU member. The only exception to that I think would be if the Big 12 came to an end - OU, OK State, Kansas, and WVa with UT as a a partial member could be possible, but an 18 team conference plus two partial members is a pipe dream at present - smoking something other than tobacco from North Carolina.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Houston can argue that it's value to TV is additive because there are alumni of other B12 programs around Houston. That does not work if the league they're trying to appeal to is the ACC. Houston's TV market is less valuable to the ACC or any league other than the B12, so if they get left behind they're probably stuck in the AAC.

Unless the ACC & ESPN, with their new network, can figure a way to monetize the 4th largest city in the country

 

[atom58]

One final thought - WVa was lucky and unlucky at the same time. They won the battle to enter the Big 12 over UL a school with similar US News academic ranking but when UMd left the ACC the perceived instability caused the conference to grab the best remaining FB school, which would have been WVa had the Big 12 taken UL as Boren of OU wanted. Academics other than that episode does matter to the ACC - the two lowest schools in the US News rankings before UL were FSU at 96 (in the top 100) and NC State at 106 (just outside it). ND was a positive addition as they were 18 on the list. Pitt and Syracuse are in the 60s. UConn at 57 sits in a good place that can be helped further (with regard to the Big 10) by AAU membership by invitation. If UConn just maintains a respectable athletic program they will be desirable to several major conferences. The AAU has to do with research funding and not undergraduate teaching. Many AAU schools have several hundred students in calculus-based physics and still call that education. The higher faculty to student ratio is important to private schools whether they are AAU or not and partly explains their greater cost.

 

[CardiffGiant]

It really isn't that difficult to see a compromise where the league goes to 14. The Big12 agrees that it will only take the pro rata share for 2 additional universities but not for all 4, which keeps the networks from getting ripped for the amount they could shell out if the league enforced the contract in full. The league works with the networks to add two schools that add the most value TV wise, and satisfies the interests of the non-Texas schools. Houston and BYU add value to the FB strength of the league, and 2 of Uconn/Conn/UCSF(whatever...one of the Fla schools). Why isn't this a plausible compromise?

 

[junglehusky]

It really isn't that difficult to see a compromise where the league goes to 14. The Big12 agrees that it will only take the pro rata share for 2 additional universities but not for all 4, which keeps the networks from getting ripped for the amount they could shell out if the league enforced the contract in full. The league works with the networks to add two schools that add the most value TV wise, and satisfies the interests of the non-Texas schools. Houston and BYU add value to the FB strength of the league, and 2 of Uconn/Conn/UCSF(whatever...one of the Fla schools). Why isn't this a plausible compromise?

It might be plausible, but taking two extra schools lessens the per-school payout (regardless of the haircut the new schools would take).

 

[CardiffGiant]

It might be plausible, but taking two extra schools lessens the per-school payout (regardless of the haircut the new schools would take).

It does lessen the payout, but one of the repeated reasons for only going to 12, and not 14,is that going to 14 essentially destroy the league's relationship with the broadcast partners because of the size of the payout. The point is that this takes away one of the big obstacles to going to 14, and it makes horse trading easier because there are 2 more slots.

 

[mavblues]

Then why not just go to 12? That would maximize their payout, which is what this (allegedly) is all about.

It's only on the BY and a couple other places on the interwebs that people talk about stabilizing the conference, protecting against future defections, etc. I haven't seen the B12 show any interest in these issues thus far.

 

[CardiffGiant]

Then why not just go to 12? That would maximize their payout, which is what this (allegedly) is all about.

It's only on the BY and a couple other places on the interwebs that people talk about stabilizing the conference, protecting against future defections, etc. I haven't seen the B12 show any interest in these issues thus far.

True. But there will likely be no consensus at 12 based upon the issues presented regarding Houston and BYU. If that is the case, they will need 2 more slots to satisfy the differing interests of everyone involved, including the networks.

 

[buddy]

One final thought - WVa was lucky and unlucky at the same time. They won the battle to enter the Big 12 over UL a school with similar US News academic ranking but when UMd left the ACC the perceived instability caused the conference to grab the best remaining FB school, which would have been WVa had the Big 12 taken UL as Boren of OU wanted. Academics other than that episode does matter to the ACC - the two lowest schools in the US News rankings before UL were FSU at 96 (in the top 100) and NC State at 106 (just outside it). ND was a positive addition as they were 18 on the list. Pitt and Syracuse are in the 60s. UConn at 57 sits in a good place that can be helped further (with regard to the Big 10) by AAU membership by invitation. If UConn just maintains a respectable athletic program they will be desirable to several major conferences. The AAU has to do with research funding and not undergraduate teaching. Many AAU schools have several hundred students in calculus-based physics and still call that education. The higher faculty to student ratio is important to private schools whether they are AAU or not and partly explains their greater cost.

Once you break you own "academics matter" rule, then academics no longer matter. Only conference that cares about academics is possibly B1G and they have no need to expand.

 

[auror]

No matter how good they become, houston will always play third fiddle. I doubt very much ESPN would want to pay UH 30+mil per to be third in a market.

1) This is nonsense. Allegiances change all the time as teams get better/worse. Where was UConn in pecking order of NYC market in 1989? Fanbase is not static, even in the good old boy South.
2) Ranking in a market doesn't matter if enough people in that market will pay for the channel in a bundle. Absolute numbers are what is important, not %. 3rd in Houston (4th largest market) is larger than 1st in some other market. Remember, 1 and 2 would not be in ACC and Houston would be ACC's only TX school, so any subscribers in that football hungry area are 100% net positive.
3) I don't think ACC would expand to just grab Houston, but this is more a hypothetical if BigXII does not pick them, they keep winning at about the same rate, and ACC decides to go to 16 because either ND agreed to join or the P5 all go to 16, etc.

Houston can argue that it's value to TV is additive because there are alumni of other B12 programs around Houston. That does not work if the league they're trying to appeal to is the ACC. Houston's TV market is less valuable to the ACC or any league other than the B12, so if they get left behind they're probably stuck in the AAC.

What? Clarify this for me please. Wouldn't they already have the market if the alumni are living in Houston? Why would adding Houston change that, or even further, help it?

 

[atom58]

Once you break you own "academics matter" rule, then academics no longer matter. Only conference that cares about academics is possibly B1G and they have no need to expand.

That response is incorrect as it fails to consider the context of that time - also it was known that Nebraska might not be renewed as an AAU member when they joined the Big 10 and some were not happy about that prospect. If Kansas (AAU) becomes available and UConn becomes AAU, the Big 10 will expand as I read Delaney is interested in AAU BB schools now b/c of the NCAA tournament.

 

[buddy]

That response is incorrect as it fails to consider the context of that time - also it was known that Nebraska might not be renewed as an AAU member when they joined the Big 10 and some were not happy about that prospect. If Kansas (AAU) becomes available and UConn becomes AAU, the Big 10 will expand as I read Delaney is interested in AAU BB schools now b/c of the NCAA tournament.

There is a tremendous difference between Nebraska's academics and Louisville's academics. Academics and the ACC is fictional. There is no expansion in the next ten years by the B1G.

 

[Adios]

UCF's rep just took a hit from Bruce Miller...