OT: MVP- Judge or Raleigh?

[RuffRuff]

I'd add a lot of weight to Posey based on the higher batting average.

With the players in question with this thread, Judge is batting ~up points higher than Raleigh.

Sure, but look at all of Raleigh's other numbers, also understand the landscape on BA has changed drastically since 2012.

Home Runs
Posey 24 to Raleigh's 60+

RBI's
Posey 103 to Raleigh's AL Leading 125+

Runs
Posey 78 to Raleigh's 109+

This is a game about scoring runs, not hitting for high average.

While he's not winning it this year, Raleigh won the Golden Glove last year and is a great catcher. AND he switch hits. Tip your hat to Judge for being the best offensive player, but I think Raleigh wins it. Judge does have a big advantage in WAR, which could move some votes.

 

[nomar]

It's Raleigh or it is a joke. Most prolific season by a catcher or switch hitter.

Genuinely curious why you think the second point, even if true (Mickey Mantle had some sensational seasons), is relevant and not a mere curiosity.

If a switch hitter plays 162 games and posts an OPS of .900 and a right handed batter plays 162 games and posts an OPS of .950, why it does it matter that the first guy bats on both sides? FWIW Judge is hitting .336 with an OPS of 1.260 against lefties and .326 with a 1.099 OPS against righties, while Raleigh's at .278/1.030 vs LHP and .235/.927 vs RHP.

 

[notthestuff]

Friends and I have been debating this one. If history dictates, no better year to take a look than 2012 when Buster Posey won it. He won over Ryan Braun, who outside of BA, had far better numbers in key categories. Posey won in a landslide, only giving a couple votes to Braun and......Yadier Molina, another catcher. I think the voters like to award catchers when possible. They're in every play, generally the captain of the field. Seattle is also going to win the West for the first time in about 25 years. Even though Judge has some titanic numbers and the better "offensive" player, Raleigh likely going to win it as the most "valuable" player.

View attachment 111872

The difference is that Posey led the league in WAR and adjusted OPS+. Raleigh and Judge aren't close in either case. Judge is 2 full points higher on Baseball Reference and half a point higher on fWar which adds more weight to the metrics that only catchers add. Posey was also only 40 pts behind in regular OPS. Judge is 40 pts ahead on OPS+ which is enormous and 177 points higher on regular OPS. Gunnar Henderson with the 55th highest OPS in the league is closer to Cal Raleigh than Cal Raleigh is to Aaron Judge.

I get the fatigue around Judge, but there is no measurable objective stat the tries to value total impact where Raleigh has an advantage other than home runs and RBI's. The only argument is the emotional "he's a catcher having a historic year for a catcher" argument. If you want to make a defensive argument it still doesn't close the gap. Via Baseball Reference and Fangraphs they have both saved 1 run above average. That doesn't even put a dent in the 40 extra runs on offense Judge has produced.

I get giving the edge to the catcher if the numbers are close and there is a narrative that they are because of the homeruns but other than that, they aren't at all close.

That said, the narrative is the narrative and it's a much more interesting story for Cal Raleigh but if it goes that way it's certainly not because he's more deserving.

 

[nomar]

Sure, but look at all of Raleigh's other numbers, also understand the landscape on BA has changed drastically since 2012.

Home Runs
Posey 24 to Raleigh's 60+

RBI's
Posey 103 to Raleigh's AL Leading 125+

Runs
Posey 78 to Raleigh's 109+

This is a game about scoring runs, not hitting for high average.

While he's not winning it this year, Raleigh won the Golden Glove last year and is a great catcher. AND he switch hits. Tip your hat to Judge for being the best offensive player, but I think Raleigh wins it. Judge does have a big advantage in WAR, which could move some votes.

I read his post to be making a point about how voters saw things in 2012. A point I think you agree with. BA is less important now. But it's not the .248 for me, it's that even with the 60 HRs and their affect on his OBP, Judge's OPS is still so much higher.

I certainly see the case for Raleigh. A catcher hitting 60 HRs is unprecedented. But I'd still vote for Judge.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

as a Yankees fan I hope they give it Cal so maybe Judge will play angry and show up in October for once

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Judge is not a mediocre defender - he is well above average.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

One of my favorite stat comparisons is OPS - Judge's 1.135 is about 180 points higher than Cal's. If you took 180 points off Cal's you'd have guys like Zach McKinstry

You linked a site that puts Judge as a completely average middle of the pack defender with a great arm. That site aligns directly with what I said and shows a decline over the years, which by the way is totally expected for someone his age. I’m not calling him bad, just pointing out that Raleigh’s defense has a lot more value.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Sure, but look at all of Raleigh's other numbers, also understand the landscape on BA has changed drastically since 2012.

Home Runs
Posey 24 to Raleigh's 60+

RBI's
Posey 103 to Raleigh's AL Leading 125+

Runs
Posey 78 to Raleigh's 109+

This is a game about scoring runs, not hitting for high average.

While he's not winning it this year, Raleigh won the Golden Glove last year and is a great catcher. AND he switch hits. Tip your hat to Judge for being the best offensive player, but I think Raleigh wins it. Judge does have a big advantage in WAR, which could move some votes.

I thought your example was comparing Posey to Braun, not Raleigh.

I doubt any catcher's season offensively, even Bench in 1970 compares to what Raleigh is doing this season.

 

[superjohn]

I read his post to be making a point about how voters saw things in 2012. A point I think you agree with. BA is less important now. But it's not the .248 for me, it's that even with the 60 HRs and their affect on his OBP, Judge's OPS is still so much higher.

I certainly see the case for Raleigh. A catcher hitting 60 HRs is unprecedented. But I'd still vote for Judge.

Baseball reference shows me Judge leads MLB in 12 offensive categories, Raleigh leads MLB in 2 offensive categories. Judge's batting average in 80 points higher than Raleigh's.

 

[UConnSean]

You linked a site that puts Judge as a completely average middle of the pack defender with a great arm. That site aligns directly with what I said and shows a decline over the years, which by the way is totally expected for someone his age. I’m not calling him bad, just pointing out that Raleigh’s defense has a lot more value.

He's 78th percentile fielding run value, that's not mediocre

 

[Dooch]

Judge and it's not close (at least, it shouldn't be) - yet Raleigh will likely win b/c voters will look at the 60 HRs and not bother digging into all the other numbers. Judge has him beat by 75 points in avg, 100 in OBP, 100 in SLG, 200 in OPS, over 2 more WAR, etc etc etc.

Also, Judge is one of the best defensive RFers in the game, and Raleigh has been average defensively this year (the metrics support that). I cringe when people say 'The Mariners staff is so good, give Raleigh credit for that' - yeah, it has nothing to do with the actual talent of the pitchers who have always been good.

Then there's this - Judge is going to lead ALL of baseball in average AND hit 50+ HRs. Know how many times that's been done? Twice, by Mantle and Jimmie Foxx, when there were far fewer teams and specialized relievers throwing 100+ like they do now. He's had a historic season. The issue is Judge fatigue with the voters - same thing happened to Lamar Jackson and Joker this year. They have been so good, these types of seasons are the norm now, and don't stand out to voters.

In 2017, Altuve beat Judge because of his high average even though Judge hit 50 bombs and blew him away in virtually every other category. This year, if Raleigh wins it will be because of HRs despite Judge hitting for a high average AND 50+ bombs.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

He's 78th percentile fielding run value, that's not mediocre

And both OAA and DRS as well as fangraphs defensive value put him as a middle of the pack RF. But again, the broader point in this discussion, Cal has a lot more defensive value. We can haggle over specific metrics but that’s the point and it’s totally uncontroversial.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Raleigh but it's pretty close. Probably the best season by a catcher of all time. His team clinched the division now. Plays the hardest and most demanding position on the field. That edges out the better raw hitting numbers from Judge.

This is how I generally feel about it too. There is subjectivity in everything, even quantitative research. I'll look back at this year as the Cal Raleigh year, not the Judge year. Probably some voter fatigue there admittedly but it's true nonetheless

 

[Lafayette]

Raleigh > Judge this year. Facts are facts and has nothing to do with fans.

As a switch hitter, Raleigh has been captivating the writers and seems to be single-handedly getting Seattle into the playoffs.

 

[billythekid]

I definitely agree with the idea that Raleigh playing a premium defensive position is a factor. The question is how much of a factor and is it enough to overcome the significant advantage that Judge has in nearly all offensive categories. I don't think they do and that Judge should win, but I'm guessing that Judge fatigue will tilt things towards Raleigh.

 

[RuffRuff]

Judge and it's not close (at least, it shouldn't be) - yet Raleigh will likely win b/c voters will look at the 60 HRs and not bother digging into all the other numbers. Judge has him beat by 75 points in avg, 100 in OBP, 100 in SLG, 200 in OPS, over 2 more WAR, etc etc etc.

Also, Judge is one of the best defensive RFers in the game, and Raleigh has been average defensively this year (the metrics support that). I cringe when people say 'The Mariners staff is so good, give Raleigh credit for that' - yeah, it has nothing to do with the actual talent of the pitchers who have always been good.

Then there's this - Judge is going to lead ALL of baseball in average AND hit 50+ HRs. Know how many times that's been done? Twice, by Mantle and Jimmie Foxx, when there were far fewer teams and specialized relievers throwing 100+ like they do now. He's had a historic season. The issue is Judge fatigue with the voters - same thing happened to Lamar Jackson and Joker this year. They have been so good, these types of seasons are the norm now, and don't stand out to voters.

In 2017, Altuve beat Judge because of his high average even though Judge hit 50 bombs and blew him away in virtually every other category. This year, if Raleigh wins it will be because of HRs despite Judge hitting for a high average AND 50+ bombs.

Watching a man of Judge's size cruise through the OF is really a wonder of the world. The guy is an alien. A 6'7" 285lb man should not be that graceful. The size of baseball players today is mind blowing. Watching Skenes pitch yesterday, didn't realize he was 6'6" 260. Good god. The SP for the Reds wasn't much smaller. Raleigh is an absolute beast - he looks like he could eat Johnny Bench.

 

[GemParty]

No problem with either winning. With that said, Judge was on a good WS team last year. Cal is taking a team, out of the playoffs for 2 decades into the post season. Is that worthy of MVP?

 

[Ports21]

Both are deserving, but I hope Raleigh gets it. Being a catcher, switch hitter, and hitting 60 HRs is absurd.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Honest question because it has been brought up a lot, why does Cal bring a switch hitter come up in this conversation at all?

 

[Dooch]

No problem with either winning. With that said, Judge was on a good WS team last year. Cal is taking a team, out of the playoffs for 2 decades into the post season. Is that worthy of MVP?

Cal has only been the 3rd most productive hitter on Seattle since July 1st - behind JRod and Polanco. Judge has been the most productive Yankee since July 1st by a TON. So I’m not sure who exactly is carrying who to the playoffs….

 

[Jaydumo20]

Honest question because it has been brought up a lot, why does Cal bring a switch hitter come up in this conversation at all?

Great question. Ive often thought about this phenomenon and I've come to realize that it does matter. Stevie Wonder's music exists as it is but it has more depth knowing he is blind. Confederacy of Dunces reads differently when you know Toole's life story.
In this case, the numbers are static but his switch hitting ability adds an extra dimension.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Great question. Ive often thought about this phenomenon and I've come to realize that it does matter. Stevie Wonder's music exists as it is but it has more depth knowing he is blind. Confederacy of Dunces reads differently when you know Toole's life story.
In this case, the numbers are static but his switch hitting ability adds an extra dimension.

I get that it’s cool, but that should have zero bearing on his value when talking about the MVP. Judge’s offensive numbers vs. both LHP and RHP are better than Cal’s from either side of the plate. Interestingly, Judge is also arguably has more consistent outcomes against LHP and RHP than Cal, despite not being a switch hitter.

 

[uconnever]

If Cal gets 62 or 63 I’d give it to him, but otherwise it’s Judge. He’s even missed some time.

 

[RuffRuff]

If Cal gets 62 or 63 I’d give it to him, but otherwise it’s Judge. He’s even missed some time.

You’re kinda supporting the fact it’s emotional then, no. Diff between 61 and 62 is immaterial as it comes to comparing numbers vs Judge.

 

[jibsey]

If Cal gets 62 or 63 I’d give it to him, but otherwise it’s Judge. He’s even missed some time.

Just extrapolate 53 more AB’s to Judge, that’s how many more Raleigh has.
One thing about Judges’s average, there 8 players in all of MLB. with over a .300 average and Judge is leading number 2 by ten points. This is Ted Williams like based on the number of players. There were 31 in 1941.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I get that it’s cool, but that should have zero bearing on his value when talking about the MVP. Judge’s offensive numbers vs. both LHP and RHP are better than Cal’s from either side of the plate. Interestingly, Judge is also arguably has more consistent outcomes against LHP and RHP than Cal, despite not being a switch hitter.

That is also true. If they had equal numbers then that might give cal an edge but Judges better numbers do make it less of a thing.
In the name of being 100% fair, they should always consider post season performance IMO. It's so huge

 

[RuffRuff]

Just extrapolate 53 more AB’s to Judge, that’s how many more Raleigh has.
One thing about Judges’s average, there 8 players in all of MLB. with over a .300 average and Judge is leading number 2 by ten points. This is Ted Williams like based on the number of players.

Can’t penalize Raleigh for not getting hurt, can only reward him at catcher.

 

[Captbluefin]

It’s most valuable player.

Not most valuable catcher..

If Cal was a SS does he win? That’s a NO.

You can’t possibly hit under .250 and be MVP

 

[Buzzyboy]

It's Raleigh or it is a joke. Most prolific season by a catcher or switch hitter.

Raleigh is having a Roger Maris season where he, out of nowhere hits so many more home runs than he's ever hit in a season and is a really good defensive catcher whereas Maris was an outstanding defensive outfielder ... Judge and Mantle were obviously better and more consistent ballplayers but Maris won the MVP that year and Raleigh just might as well ... You almost think Raleigh was on steroids or something to hit so man;y more homers from anything he's ever done and well into his career ... I'm assuming not but it is weird

 

[Buzzyboy]

No problem with either winning. With that said, Judge was on a good WS team last year. Cal is taking a team, out of the playoffs for 2 decades into the post season. Is that worthy of MVP?

The assumption that HE is taking them into the playoffs really is just conjecture ... they added more than a few players this year and have another 50 home run guy on their roster ...

 

[WhereistheDove?]

... You almost think Raleigh was on steroids or something to hit so man;y more homers from anything he's ever done and well into his career ... I'm assuming not but it is weird

His metrics are pretty interesting. You’d think he’d be hitting the ball a lot harder but his average exit velocity is almost identical to last year. Instead, he’s striking out less, barreling more balls, hitting more fly balls, and has become more of a pull hitter. It seems most of the change is approach. Also just wild he’s doing this in one of the hardest parks to hit HRs in all of baseball.