Mullins Projected Draft Projection

[DRBackup]

When you have a chance at good money you have to take it. So, I do not question anyone's decision about leaving early. But the landscape has changed. NIL changes everything. You still can make money at the college level. College is more manageable than the NBA life with potential to earn a decent fraction of NBA earnings ... not saying competing ... but decent money. I just look at history, very recent history. Wasn't Liam expected to go 13 - 15th? He did make it in the first round with the last pick, but now he's buried on a bench with Hornets.

He's not developing. If Liam is stuck in Charlotte, he's no better than a rotational player with limited minutes. If your goal is to make it to the NBA, make money, and barely play - then that's their decision.

Mullins needs some bulk and more development to be a "every day" NBA player. He'll be on a roster - maybe in 5 years he'll get this every day chance - but that's the foreseeable future for Mullins - limited minute player.

THIS. Clearly McNeeley was more physically ready for the NBA then Mullins is and McNeeley still spent the entire season in the G League. I get the whole "get to your second contract ASAP" argument, but at some point, not only do you need to get to that point, but you also need to maximize your value by that time to get the biggest contract possible. That's not possible playing in the G League.

Maybe this is something that's just slow to change and will eventually move more towards guys staying an extra year. Just seems logical that it would

 

[DRBackup]

Like what? Says the fan who doesn’t have to worry about turning down 15 mil guaranteed. He really owes it to all of us to stay because we are certain his life will be better.

The only way that doesn't work is if you get hurt. That's what insurance is for. And there is no reason to believe it is somehow more likley you'll have a career ending injury in an extra year in college than during your expected 10 year NBA career.

 

[DRBackup]

He could have a bad sophomore season or have a catastrophic injury if he returns. That is also part of the conversation. If he comes back he will pay a heavy insurance premium.

In the new era of college sports, UConn could pay for that.

 

[DRBackup]

Like the second contract. The one Bouknight never got.

Exactly. Everyone acts like the second contract is the only consideration, but clearly being valuable enough to the team to GET that contract, nevermind maximize how big it is gets mysteriously ignored.

Obviously it seems unlikely that the lack of maturity issues that plagued Bouknight would affect Mullins, but there are other considerations that could play into it, including size and strength that he definitely lacks at this point.

 

[DRBackup]

Yeah, we all see so may similarities between Braylon and James.

Tell us how that same issue isn't coming for Jordan Hawkins as well, for completely different reasons.

Hawkins leaving early was for this exact reason and assuming he gets a second deal, it won't be for anything close to what you're "hoping" for leaving early to get to that second deal ASAP.

 

[DRBackup]

And let's dispense with this "life changing money thing" a bit. Let's say Mullins goes at #15. The value of the rookie deal at that spot is $22.5M. But in reality, the number on that check would really be more like $11M.

If you gave me a check for $11M right now, would it change my life ? Absolutely.

But that's not how it works, either. First of all, you don't get one big check, you get 4 years worth of 82 game checks at a net of around $35K. You're 19 years old, imagining your 15 year NBA career... you're not thinking about how you're going to sock that money away and change your life. You're 100% going to spend a large chunk of that on a spiffy apartment, a car, wardrobe, and other dumb crap that kids buy.

You suffer a career ending injury in year 2 or 3 or whatever - is your life really changed forever ? Meh. And that seems to be everyone's reference point when, in reality, that is an exception, not hardly the rule. And someone could probably run the numbers on it and almost certainly find that flaming out of the NBA before that second deal is far more likely than a sudden career ending injury.

Iverson made $155M in his career and blew every single penny of it. Would I expect Mullins to do that ? No, but he's still somewhere on the sliding scale between "saved every penny" and "pissed it all away".

 

[djct1999]

Tell us how that same issue isn't coming for Jordan Hawkins as well, for completely different reasons.

Hawkins leaving early was for this exact reason and assuming he gets a second deal, it won't be for anything close to what you're "hoping" for leaving early to get to that second deal ASAP.

Hawkins got over 20 mil guaranteed, had both options picked up, is 23 and will most likely get a one year prove it deal with a more competent organization. There is no guarantee at all that if Hawkins came back it would be any better than that. Same for Braylon. . This idea that it’s guaranteed if he comes back his draft stock improves is hilarious. The risk reward is almost even. So yeah, take the guarantee now and see how you develop over the next few years when basketball is your job. I bet if I asked you to name 5 kids with Braylon’s profile who came back a second year and actually improved their draft stock, you couldn’t. That’s how dumb this is.

 

[djct1999]

If the worst case for Braylon is a Jordan Hawkins path, he should absolutely go. There are no guarantees coming back for a second year.

 

[ctbro1999]

Hawkins got over 20 mil guaranteed, had both options picked up, is 23 and will most likely get a one year prove it deal with a more competent organization. There is no guarantee at all that if Hawkins came back it would be any better than that. Same for Braylen. This idea that it’s guaranteed if he comes back his draft stock improves is hilarious. The risk reward is almost even. So yeah, take the guarantee now and see how you develop over the next few years when basketball is your job. I bet if I asked you to name 5 kids with Braylon’s profile who came back a second year and actually unproved their draft stock, you couldn’t. That’s how dumb this is.

Yeah, people are just assuming Mullins would take some meteoric leap his sophomore year and suddenly become a top 5/10 draft pick next year. He'd need to become first team All-America to boost his stock that much. But on the flip side, what if he just marginally improved his numbers from this past season? Likely he stays as a fringe lottery/late 1st round pick, except now he's a year older and now may be viewed as stalled out as far as development. It is really dumb.

 

[djct1999]

And let's dispense with this "life changing money thing" a bit. Let's say Mullins goes at #15. The value of the rookie deal at that spot is $22.5M. But in reality, the number on that check would really be more like $11M.

If you gave me a check for $11M right now, would it change my life ? Absolutely.

But that's not how it works, either. First of all, you don't get one big check, you get 4 years worth of 82 game checks at a net of around $35K. You're 19 years old, imagining your 15 year NBA career... you're not thinking about how you're going to sock that money away and change your life. You're 100% going to spend a large chunk of that on a spiffy apartment, a car, wardrobe, and other dumb crap that kids buy.

You suffer a career ending injury in year 2 or 3 or whatever - is your life really changed forever ? Meh. And that seems to be everyone's reference point when, in reality, that is an exception, not hardly the rule. And someone could probably run the numbers on it and almost certainly find that flaming out of the NBA before that second deal is far more likely than a sudden career ending injury.

Iverson made $155M in his career and blew every single penny of it. Would I expect Mullins to do that ? No, but he's still somewhere on the sliding scale between "saved every penny" and "pissed it all away".

Maybe he should stay at UConn for 4 years, get a business degree and pursue a job on wall street. The way you spin it, why go to the nba at all?

 

[knicksin7]

ALL of our guys seem to be trapped in Charlotte and rot. Bouk. Liam. Jeremy until a trade. Adrian. Dyson. Jake. Of course Mek. Please. Huskies can go yo DC. Just not Charlotte and I live in NC. Kemba was the lone survivor. Mostly. Wasn’t Bazz there too for like 1 month?

Pretty hard to argue with the success of the hornets this year. think the owners and management are a+ - took a few years to get it right though.

 

[DRBackup]

Hawkins got over 20 mil guaranteed, had both options picked up, is 23 and will most likely get a one year prove it deal with a more competent organization. There is no guarantee at all that if Hawkins came back it would be any better than that. Same for Braylon. . This idea that it’s guaranteed if he comes back his draft stock improves is hilarious. The risk reward is almost even. So yeah, take the guarantee now and see how you develop over the next few years when basketball is your job. I bet if I asked you to name 5 kids with Braylon’s profile who came back a second year and actually improved their draft stock, you couldn’t. That’s how dumb this is.

Whatever you say, buddy. Now show me the profile of a kid like Mullins with his physique that got a huge second deal.

I don't really care about Hawkins guaranteed money. The ENTIRE POINT of these discussions is the "get to the second deal ASAP" argument which fails spectacularly in his case. I have no idea if staying would have made a difference, but it is beyond arguing that by leaving early he maximized his future earnings. He didn't.

The idea that coming back vs. leaving early "risk vs. reward" is even is nonsensical. Risk is probability x consequences. The probability of anything that actually impacts Mullins negatively is very low.

 

[DRBackup]

Maybe he should stay at UConn for 4 years, get a business degree and pursue a job on wall street. The way you spin it, why go to the nba at all?

By all means, you should bash that strawman harder.

 

[DRBackup]

If the worst case for Braylon is a Jordan Hawkins path, he should absolutely go. There are no guarantees coming back for a second year.

Absolutely not.

 

[djct1999]

Pretty hard to argue with the success of the hornets this year. think the owners and management are a+ - took a few years to get it right though.

And the verdict on Liam is tbd. I applaud the hornets on how they handled him and I fully expect him to be part of their rotation next season.

 

[djct1999]

By all means, you should bash that strawman harder.

Says the guy who brings up Iverson’s finances as a reason to devalue nba money. Yeah, ok. It’s easy to talk this way when you have no shot ever of earning this type of Income.

 

[djct1999]

Whatever you say, buddy. Now show me the profile of a kid like Mullins with his physique that got a huge second deal.

I don't really care about Hawkins guaranteed money. The ENTIRE POINT of these discussions is the "get to the second deal ASAP" argument which fails spectacularly in his case. I have no idea if staying would have made a difference, but it is beyond arguing that by leaving early he maximized his future earnings. He didn't.

The idea that coming back vs. leaving early "risk vs. reward" is even is nonsensical. Risk is probability x consequences. The probability of anything that actually impacts Mullins negatively is very low.

Keep deflecting. Your argument is weak and you have nothing to support it.

 

[DRBackup]

Apparently Mullins is Schrodinger's shooting guard here.

Same kid that clearly is not currently physically ready for the NBA will definitely develop and flourish in the NBA by leaving early, thus maximizing his lifetime earnings is the same kid that would seriously risk not developing at all if he came back to UConn and be screwed forever. LOL

 

[Kenny11]

In the NBA, 3 point shooting percentages are important. If you are a “shooter” you better be able to shoot a good percentage or you won’t be around long.

Braylon has a beautiful shot. He will undoubtedly excel in workouts and shooting drills. He has shown flashes of being able to do other things with the ball. I think he has it in him to score and distribute off the dribble but we didn’t see a lot of it. But at the end of the day he has to be shooting 37% from 3 or higher to have a long nba career. We’ll see

 

[djct1999]

Apparently Mullins is Schrodinger's shooting guard here.

Same kid that clearly is not currently physically ready for the NBA will definitely develop and flourish in the NBA by leaving early, thus maximizing his lifetime earnings is the same kid that would seriously risk not developing at all if he came back to UConn and be screwed forever. LOL

So please come back to UConn. You aren’t good enough for the NBA. Don’t let the gm’s fool you. We know more. We know what’s best for you!

Fwiw, my accountant tells me that after taxes the nba money isn’t that good!

 

[BGesus4]

And let's dispense with this "life changing money thing" a bit. Let's say Mullins goes at #15. The value of the rookie deal at that spot is $22.5M. But in reality, the number on that check would really be more like $11M.

If you gave me a check for $11M right now, would it change my life ? Absolutely.

But that's not how it works, either. First of all, you don't get one big check, you get 4 years worth of 82 game checks at a net of around $35K. You're 19 years old, imagining your 15 year NBA career... you're not thinking about how you're going to sock that money away and change your life. You're 100% going to spend a large chunk of that on a spiffy apartment, a car, wardrobe, and other dumb crap that kids buy.

You suffer a career ending injury in year 2 or 3 or whatever - is your life really changed forever ? Meh. And that seems to be everyone's reference point when, in reality, that is an exception, not hardly the rule. And someone could probably run the numbers on it and almost certainly find that flaming out of the NBA before that second deal is far more likely than a sudden career ending injury.

Iverson made $155M in his career and blew every single penny of it. Would I expect Mullins to do that ? No, but he's still somewhere on the sliding scale between "saved every penny" and "pissed it all away".

In conclusion, no amount of money would make it so that Mullins should go pro

 

[knicksin7]

And the verdict on Liam is tbd. I applaud the hornets on how they handled him and I fully expect him to be part of their rotation next season.

Gives me confidence that they drafted him. This is an extremely well run franchise now.

 

[HW611]

Like the second contract. The one Bouknight never got.

And Hawkins. And Liam is not off to a good start to get it.

If you do that second contract right you make 100Ms. Thats the goal. Not just making the NBA.

 

[HW611]

Hawkins got over 20 mil guaranteed, had both options picked up, is 23 and will most likely get a one year prove it deal with a more competent organization. There is no guarantee at all that if Hawkins came back it would be any better than that. Same for Braylon. . This idea that it’s guaranteed if he comes back his draft stock improves is hilarious. The risk reward is almost even. So yeah, take the guarantee now and see how you develop over the next few years when basketball is your job. I bet if I asked you to name 5 kids with Braylon’s profile who came back a second year and actually improved their draft stock, you couldn’t. That’s how dumb this is.

Philon literally did that this year. And he came back to one of the most stacked drafts in recent memory.

 

[ctbro1999]

And Hawkins. And Liam is not off to a good start to get it.

If you do that second contract right you make 100Ms. Thats the goal. Not just making the NBA.

So guys should stay an extra year in college so that possibly they boost their chances for getting a large 2nd NBA contract 4-5 years down the road? And turn down the guaranteed $15-20M they would secure being drafted mid-late 1st round coming out after their freshman year? And hope they don't get injured or have a subpar year like Solo did this season. OK

 

[CL82]

THIS. Clearly McNeeley was more physically ready for the NBA then Mullins is and McNeeley still spent the entire season in the G League. I get the whole "get to your second contract ASAP" argument, but at some point, not only do you need to get to that point, but you also need to maximize your value by that time to get the biggest contract possible. That's not possible playing in the G League.

Maybe this is something that's just slow to change and will eventually move more towards guys staying an extra year. Just seems logical that it would

I was going to make the "time value of money" counter argument, but I'm not sure that's really applicable anymore in the NIL era.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

In the NBA, 3 point shooting percentages are important. If you are a “shooter” you better be able to shoot a good percentage or you won’t be around long.

Braylon has a beautiful shot. He will undoubtedly excel in workouts and shooting drills. He has shown flashes of being able to do other things with the ball. I think he has it in him to score and distribute off the dribble but we didn’t see a lot of it. But at the end of the day he has to be shooting 37% from 3 or higher to have a long nba career. We’ll see

Mullins lit up the bad defensive teams on the schedule. He was 29 for 64 (45.3%) against Providence, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler. He is not playing those teams in the NBA. He was 43 for 151 (28.5%) against everyone else. He was 2 for 17 against Marquette, which is not a good team but did D up. 2 for 8 against the Hall, basically meaning he couldn't get shots off. 7 for 20 against SJU, which isn't bad, but not NBA caliber.

The good news is that Mullins is very accurate when he gets open, and with some coaching he will be able to get open more. Comparing him to Hawkins when Hawkins left is not realistic. In 2023, Hawkins shot 38.8% on a lot higher volume (281 attempts), as the 1A option on the team's offense. He was the focus of the defense, and was still shooting close to 40%, which is really impressive. Mullins, on the other hand, can be effective as an off-ball catch-and-shoot player.

I think he is a lot better than McNeeley. McNeeley is bigger and stronger than Mullins was (I don't know if I believe the 6'6 for Mullins), and McNeeley got to the line a lot because he was bigger and stronger. McNeeley was very ball dominant, and did not play great within our offense. I think Mullins is a lot quicker, is a better shooter, can be a plug into any offense without needing the ball in his hands the whole time, and has more upside than McNeeley. That might be enough to get him picked between 10 and 20. The thing about draft picks projected to be role players, like Mullins, is they have to come in ready to contribute. There is always another class coming in next year, and if a player gets G-Leagued, a lot of times they don't really come back.

I am generally a "go pro" fan if the option is there, but with NIL, that decision is harder, and I am right on the fence with Mullins.

 

[controlfade]

If the worst case for Braylon is a Jordan Hawkins path, he should absolutely go. There are no guarantees coming back for a second year.

Ohhh, got it—so you’re the official life coach for Braylon and his whole family now. My mistake, I must’ve completely misread that… for a second there I thought you were actually coming at me. Silly me.

 

[HW611]

So guys should stay an extra year in college so that possibly they boost their chances for getting a large 2nd NBA contract 4-5 years down the road? And turn down the guaranteed $15-20M they would secure being drafted mid-late 1st round coming out after their freshman year? And hope they don't get injured or have a subpar year like Solo did this season. OK

When’s the last time you saw someone actually get injured coming back?

 

[djct1999]

Philon literally did that this year. And he came back to one of the most stacked drafts in recent memory.

Philon was projected late first to early second. Mullins will go late lottery. Huge difference.