Mullins Projected Draft Projection | Page 4 | The Boneyard

Mullins Projected Draft Projection

HW611 said:
When’s the last time you saw someone actually get injured coming back?
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Karter Knox. Was probably in a very similar draft situation as Mullins last year (mid/late 1st round pick), decided to come back, had a subpar year then injury cost him the rest of the season. He likely wouldn't even get drafted if he declared this year.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Karter Knox. Was probably in a very similar draft situation as Mullins last year (mid/late 1st round pick), decided to come back, had a subpar year then injury cost him the rest of the season. He likely wouldn't even get drafted if he declared this year.
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This is a mock draft on March 4th of last year.

Knox wasn’t even in the top 40. I’m not sure if he was even in this mock as I didn’t go through the whole thing.

 
djct1999 said:
yep. The more accurate mocks(historically )have him 14th.

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Live updating 2026 NBA Mock Draft with lottery simulator and traded picks. Draft order and selections based on team needs are updated after every NBA game.
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At this date last year tankathon had McNeeley going #11 in the draft.

Screenshot_20260409_090305_Reddit.jpg
 
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djct1999 said:
yep. The more accurate mocks(historically )have him 14th.

www.tankathon.com

2026 NBA Mock Draft with Lottery Simulator | Tankathon

Live updating 2026 NBA Mock Draft with lottery simulator and traded picks. Draft order and selections based on team needs are updated after every NBA game.
www.tankathon.com www.tankathon.com
Expand ...
If he got a guarantee to be picked in lottery, he should definitely go.

Realistic place for him right now is late first round like Liam last year.
 
HW611 said:
This is a mock draft on March 4th of last year.

Knox wasn’t even in the top 40. I’m not sure if he was even in this mock as I didn’t go through the whole thing.

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No Ceilings had him #36. Maybe I overestimated his draft stock a bit. But regardless, he hurt his stock coming back from potentially late 1st/early 2nd rounder to undrafted FA currently. Guess for him, NIL is a blessing.
www.noceilingsnba.com

2025 NBA Mock Draft V.6

The No Ceilings crew installs V.6 of their 2025 NBA Mock Draft.
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ctbro1999 said:
No Ceilings had him #36. Maybe I overestimated his draft stock a bit. But regardless, he hurt his stock coming back from potentially late 1st/early 2nd rounder to undrafted FA currently. Guess for him, NIL is a blessing.
www.noceilingsnba.com

2025 NBA Mock Draft V.6

The No Ceilings crew installs V.6 of their 2025 NBA Mock Draft.
www.noceilingsnba.com www.noceilingsnba.com
Expand ...
The context of this situation is, Knox went back to Calipari. Who’s notoriously known for pushing his star freshmen. So if you have to come back for another year under Cal it’s usually in a smaller role. See Wagner.

Mullins is coming back to a bigger role to grow his game. Wouldn’t be the same at all.

I don’t even want to compare this to Hawkins or Liam’s decision to much because they showed as much as they possibly could here.

Mullins is a situation where he legit has so much more of his game to show and tap into in a bigger role if he comes back. That can make him top 10 easily, maybe top 5 if he comes back.

That’s the evaluation. Not a guess or worry based on nothing but being risk-adverse.
 
The official withdrawal date for the NBA draft is May 27, so I guess we'll know one way or another by then, but does that date still matter? If someone stays in the draft doesn't like where they go, could they still come back and play? I'm not sure where this stands now.
 
CL82 said:
The official withdrawal date for the NBA draft is May 27, so I guess we'll know one way or another by then, but does that date still matter? If someone stays in the draft doesn't like where they go, could they still come back and play? I'm not sure where this stands now.
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As we saw with Bediako and Nnaji, anything is possible.
 
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djct1999 said:
I forgot. You know everything. Mocks are speculation. For anyone you have saying Mullins is going late first, I can find someone saying late lottery. Except my guys are more respected.
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You're the one who referenced tankathon (you also have access to google) and the one throughout the thread saying what Braylon needs to do and that he will absolutely be a lottery pick in this draft.
 
ctbro1999 said:
So guys should stay an extra year in college so that possibly they boost their chances for getting a large 2nd NBA contract 4-5 years down the road? And turn down the guaranteed $15-20M they would secure being drafted mid-late 1st round coming out after their freshman year? And hope they don't get injured or have a subpar year like Solo did this season. OK
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No one has said that. All we said was that there are considerations. And the reply was, like what?
 
WestCoastHusky said:
If he got a guarantee to be picked in lottery, he should definitely go.

Realistic place for him right now is late first round like Liam last year.
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NBA mock drafts are generally unreliable for predicting exact picks, often getting under 35% of selections correct, largely due to unexpected trades and team-specific, inside information. While top-5 picks are often accurately predicted, accuracy drops significantly after the top 10, with mock drafts frequently missing on about 30% of first-round picks entirely. [1, 2, 3]
 
ctbro1999 said:
Yeah, people are just assuming Mullins would take some meteoric leap his sophomore year and suddenly become a top 5/10 draft pick next year. He'd need to become first team All-America to boost his stock that much. But on the flip side, what if he just marginally improved his numbers from this past season? Likely he stays as a fringe lottery/late 1st round pick, except now he's a year older and now may be viewed as stalled out as far as development. It is really dumb.
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It's because we believe in UConn coaches. It has happened time and time again that our freshman made big jumps in their sophomore years.
 
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I was pretty high on mullins draft situation coming into the season but i'll say that he could benefit a lot from another year. His current assessment has some question marks mainly relating to physicality and consistency. unless he has a firm offer from a team in the late lottery he should come back.
 
Hey, if you guys could come up with more ways to completely mis-state my points, that'd be great.

Good to know that you're not particularly bright in the logic department anymore than the amateur NBA GM department.
 
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CL82 said:
I was going to make the "time value of money" counter argument, but I'm not sure that's really applicable anymore in the NIL era.
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That is a factor, but we're only talking about one year. And somehow ignoring the fact that the second contract is the key but not factoring in how you set yourself up for that is just as important as getting there.
 
HW611 said:
The context of this situation is, Knox went back to Calipari. Who’s notoriously known for pushing his star freshmen. So if you have to come back for another year under Cal it’s usually in a smaller role. See Wagner.

Mullins is coming back to a bigger role to grow his game. Wouldn’t be the same at all.

I don’t even want to compare this to Hawkins or Liam’s decision to much because they showed as much as they possibly could here.

Mullins is a situation where he legit has so much more of his game to show and tap into in a bigger role if he comes back. That can make him top 10 easily, maybe top 5 if he comes back.

That’s the evaluation. Not a guess or worry based on nothing but being risk-adverse.
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There’s only been 2 sophomores since 2020 to be drafted in the top 5 and only 5 since 2016, which is essentially 10 years worth of drafts since this year won’t have any sophomores in the top 5. He probably won’t ever be a top 5 pick. If he comes back & kills it, he can be a lottery pick. But that’s far from a guarantee, there’s definitely some risk involved for him if he has a similar type season that he had this year. I don’t anticipate that but it could happen.
 
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ctbro1999 said:
So guys should stay an extra year in college so that possibly they boost their chances for getting a large 2nd NBA contract 4-5 years down the road? And turn down the guaranteed $15-20M they would secure being drafted mid-late 1st round coming out after their freshman year? And hope they don't get injured or have a subpar year like Solo did this season. OK
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Great job having no idea what I said. He should CONSIDER coming back if it helps him be better prepared to go higher in the draft (more money) and more likely to contribute sooner so that when that first contract is up, he's in a better position to get a bigger deal that isn't limited like rookie deals are. He's only DELAYING the guaranteed $15-20M by a year, not foregoing it completely. FYI, as it is, compared to the hype, Mullins already had a subpar year.
 
ctbro1999 said:
No Ceilings had him #36. Maybe I overestimated his draft stock a bit. But regardless, he hurt his stock coming back from potentially late 1st/early 2nd rounder to undrafted FA currently. Guess for him, NIL is a blessing.
www.noceilingsnba.com

2025 NBA Mock Draft V.6

The No Ceilings crew installs V.6 of their 2025 NBA Mock Draft.
www.noceilingsnba.com www.noceilingsnba.com
Expand ...
"mAyBe"... "a biT"
 
Fatroony5 said:
There’s only been 2 sophomores since 2020 to be drafted in the top 5 and only 5 since 2016, which is essentially 10 years worth of drafts since this year won’t have any sophomores in the top 5. He probably won’t ever be a top 5 pick. If he comes back & kills it, he can be a lottery pick. But that’s far from a guarantee, there’s definitely some risk involved for him if he has a similar type season that he had this year. I don’t anticipate that but it could happen.
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We have a very weak draft coming up so I can see it.
 
HW611 said:
We have a very weak draft coming up so I can see it.
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And yet multiple freshmen will rise to the top & be drafted, always happens. It’s hard to read into these things so far out. Maybe there’s not a Peterson in the ‘27 class but I’d bet good players will still come out. Either way, I can’t blame Mullins for his decision, just hoping he’s decisive in it. UConn can’t wait around till the draft deadline to know what he’s going to do.
 
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