Mullins Projected Draft Projection | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Mullins Projected Draft Projection

I thought since we signed him he would be one and done but that has changed. His injury lingered which hurt his athleticism and he went into a major three point shooting slump. It's a stacked draft and Braylon and his parents love everything about Hurley and UConn.
This is why I think we have a shot. He's easily our best player next year if he's back. Could really put up huge numbers and it's probably easier to put on some muscle in college than while trying to play 80 NBA games.

When is the deadline on the portal? Ideally, Mullins would be a SG, not a SF.
 
He will go fringe lottery or tail end of 1st round. If he chooses that route, he will make 2-3M in his first year and bounce around the Fort Wayne Mad Ants and the Westchester Knicks of the world.

If he chooses to stay, he can make 2-3M at UConn and then go higher in the 2027 draft and make upwards of 3.5M upon his first professional year.

The only justification to going pro is the insurance policy of guaranteed money if he gets injured. But it isn’t life changing money at the back end of the lottery.
 
When you have a chance at good money you have to take it. So, I do not question anyone's decision about leaving early. But the landscape has changed. NIL changes everything. You still can make money at the college level. College is more manageable than the NBA life with potential to earn a decent fraction of NBA earnings ... not saying competing ... but decent money. I just look at history, very recent history. Wasn't Liam expected to go 13 - 15th? He did make it in the first round with the last pick, but now he's buried on a bench with Hornets.

He's not developing. If Liam is stuck in Charlotte, he's no better than a rotational player with limited minutes. If your goal is to make it to the NBA, make money, and barely play - then that's their decision.

Mullins needs some bulk and more development to be a "every day" NBA player. He'll be on a roster - maybe in 5 years he'll get this every day chance - but that's the foreseeable future for Mullins - limited minute player.
ALL of our guys seem to be trapped in Charlotte and rot. Bouk. Liam. Jeremy until a trade. Adrian. Dyson. Jake. Of course Mek. Please. Huskies can go yo DC. Just not Charlotte and I live in NC. Kemba was the lone survivor. Mostly. Wasn’t Bazz there too for like 1 month?
 
He will go fringe lottery or tail end of 1st round. If he chooses that route, he will make 2-3M in his first year and bounce around the Fort Wayne Mad Ants and the Westchester Knicks of the world.

If he chooses to stay, he can make 2-3M at UConn and then go higher in the 2027 draft and make upwards of 3.5M upon his first professional year.

The only justification to going pro is the insurance policy of guaranteed money if he gets injured. But it isn’t life changing money at the back end of the lottery.
You don’t think $20M guaranteed is life changing money? That’s interesting
 
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ALL of our guys seem to be trapped in Charlotte and rot. Bouk. Liam. Jeremy until a trade. Adrian. Dyson. Jake. Of course Mek. Please. Huskies can go yo DC. Just not Charlotte and I live in NC. Kemba was the lone survivor. Mostly. Wasn’t Bazz there too for like 1 month?
Jeremy didn't rot in Charlotte, Charlotte is how he was able to get consistent playing time after being burried in OKC. His play in Charlotte was how he was able to get his 3rd and last big contract with the Pacers before he ultimately tore up his knee. It's too early to make any declarations on Liam, Charlotte is actually good now, he's not good enough yet to crack their rotation.
 
ALL of our guys seem to be trapped in Charlotte and rot. Bouk. Liam. Jeremy until a trade. Adrian. Dyson. Jake. Of course Mek. Please. Huskies can go yo DC. Just not Charlotte and I live in NC. Kemba was the lone survivor. Mostly. Wasn’t Bazz there too for like 1 month?
Liam benefited from his time this year in the g league and will be part of the hornets rotation next year.
 
I think Braylon would be best served returning for another season. He needs an offseason in the weight room and to fully develop his game. Next year he could be a featured part of the offense and spend another year learning from the coaching staff. McNeeley was more physically ready than Braylon and we know how that turned out.
Great point on McNeeley he was a bigger stronger kid with better collegiate stats in a weaker draft and still went bottom first round…..I think these draft predictions are daft, Mullins is bottom of first round in this class, where another year could make top 10 pick and a lot more money and just maybe a Natty as well….
 
The variance on Braylon remains wide. I fully expect that to converge w time, moving him closer to the top w each workout. Tankathon currently has him at 14.
 
Another thing to consider with Mullins is he stayed at his hometown High School instead of spending a year or 2 at a basketball powerhouse like IMG Academy or Monteverde ,Brewster etc…then he missed his first 6 games due to bad injury and had to make that big jump from Public HS ball to the best CBB program in the sport and the competition that comes with that…I think that along with injury impacted his performance. Another year in an environment he now understands and is ready for with great coaching will make him so much better prepared for the biggest step up going to the NBA and playing against men that are the best players in the world
 
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Great point on McNeeley he was a bigger stronger kid with better collegiate stats in a weaker draft and still went bottom first round…..I think these draft predictions are daft, Mullins is bottom of first round in this class, where another year could make top 10 pick and a lot more money and just maybe a Natty as well….
Braylon’s ceiling is several magnitudes above Liam’s. Liam has physical/athleticism limitations that Braylon does not. His absolute worst case scenario is dropping to 20th. Best case is 8th.

I don’t understand the negativity towards the G league. Players develop better in the G league playing against other pros than they would playing against DePaul in December.
 
Another thing to consider with Mullins is he stayed at his hometown High School instead of spending a year or 2 at a basketball powerhouse like IMG Academy or Monteverde ,Brewster etc…then he missed his first 6 games due to bad injury and had to make that big jump from Public HS ball to the best CBB program in the sport and the competition that comes with that…I think that along with injury impacted his performance. Another year in an environment he now understands and is ready for with great coaching will make him so much better prepared for the biggest step up going to the NBA and playing against men that are the best players in the world
You’re describing the G-League. Playing against the Tristen Newton’s of the world every game.
 
You don’t think $20M guaranteed is life changing money? That’s interesting
(If I understand NBA contracts correctly): Your idea of a "guarantee" and my idea of a "guarantee" differ. If I understand correctly that is if they pick up the option (which is the bulk of that "guarantee" and not -- in fact, a guaranteed occurrence). The injury that could derail his NBA in college could also happen in the NBA. I would argue it is more likely to happen in the NBA.

The risk would be less than one year wages -- the second guaranteed year of the NBA contract -- as UConn would be paying him more than late 1st round pick money (which is where he would be if he were to be returning).
 
(If I understand NBA contracts correctly): Your idea of a "guarantee" and my idea of a "guarantee" differ. If I understand correctly that is if they pick up the option (which is the bulk of that "guarantee" and not -- in fact, a guaranteed occurrence). The injury that could derail his NBA in college could also happen in the NBA. I would argue it is more likely to happen in the NBA.

The risk would be less than one year wages -- the second guaranteed year of the NBA contract -- as UConn would be paying him more than late 1st round pick money (which is where he would be if he were to be returning).
I didn’t say late first round. The figure I quoted is the last lottery pick (14th). So he’ll make $10M no matter what. Teams do sometimes give up on lottery picks but in general they don’t wanna give up after only 2 years
 
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Mullins showed shooting range, but not consistency. But, I am sure NBA teams feel that with experience that shot is too good looking to not be an elite shooter.
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Mullins is very skinny. He needs a couple of years of maturation to play major minutes at NBA level. Regardless what people think of the NBA you don't get on the floor if you can't defend. If they are going to abuse you as a mismatch and go hunting, then you are unplayable.

Mullins can't physucally defend at NBA level right now, and won't next year, because of that, I see him going mid to late first round. He's perfect for a good team that can throw him in the G LEague for a spell while he bulks up, and turns into a scorer in year 2. His shooting is Kyle Korver-like with the quick release, but more versatile game.

So, does he want to go to a team 15 and later, get the contract, and worst case is a G League half the time, half the time coming off bench for NBA team? I don't think we are going to see him in the top 12 because he is a year or two away physically.

Here is thing, does he want to go to college and build a marketing narrative and be a top pick next year? I think if he comes back he is gonna be an all-america candidate. That isn't nothing when you consider NIL possibilities.

I don't know. Really depends on some things we cant answer. McNeeley might be a good person to talk to.
 
I didn’t say late first round. The figure I quoted is the last lottery pick (14th). So he’ll make $10M no matter what. Teams do sometimes give up on lottery picks but in general they don’t wanna give up after only 2 years
Few are arguing that Mullin should come back if he is getting drafted 14th.
 
The similarities are you need to be ready for the NBA or if you're not, you may not see the second contract.
Luckily for Braylon , that decision isn’t made day 1 but years out. Again, this comparison makes no sense because James was shown the door primarily for poor off the court decisions. It’s entirely feasible that teams like
Okc or San Antonio can draft Braylon on potential, be patient with his development, and look for more contribution in a year or two when a guy like D’aron Fox’s max deal comes due. Braylon’s ability and potential to shoot the 3 alone will almost assure his options being picked up because there would be value there.
 
Few are arguing that Mullin should come back if he is getting drafted 14th.
Actually the post I replied to explicitly stated: “But it isn’t life changing money at the back end of the lottery.”
So i decided to look up the money at the back end of the lottery. So yeah.
 
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Actually the post I replied to explicitly stated: “But it isn’t life changing money at the back end of the lottery.”
So i decided to look up the money at the back end of the lottery. So yeah.
He very likely misspoke and meant the back of the first, but nevertheless I stand corrected.

I would be shocked if he were anywhere near 14th in this draft (which is guaranteed $4.5m), but that is why he will at least go through the draft process.
 
He very likely misspoke and meant the back of the first, but nevertheless I stand corrected.

I would be shocked if he were anywhere near 14th in this draft (which is guaranteed $4.5m), but that is why he will at least go through the draft process.
At 25-30 (where I’ve seen some projections), I would definitely say he should come back. Actually anything outside the lottery. And the lottery is LOADED
 
The pros for Mullins are that he has a pretty shot that he gets off quickly and a great sense of spacing.

The cons are he doesn’t have an NBA guard’s handle yet, can’t defend at an NBA level, and struggled when the defenses got better this year. Players do not develop in the NBA like they would in college, because NBA coaches have to win now, particularly playoff caliber teams that will probably be the ones picking Mullins.

I wouldn’t take Mullins before 25, but I am not an NBA GM. If he gets a solid promise to go 20 or sooner, he should go. If it looks like it will be 21 or later, come back. An early 20’s projection can become second round really fast.
 

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