Monday's Bracketology and Explanation

[DobbsRover2]

Charlie confirmed that with me recently.

If the committee has not updated the Principles and Procedures to reflect the substantial changes, they are guilty of malpractice.

If they have updated them, and refused to share them with the public or even insiders, they are guilty of a lack of transparency. I fervently hope it is the latter.

But again, this is official statement from the NCAA site:

• Are selection, seeding and bracketing the same for the men and women?
  There are a few minor differences in the principles and procedures. The most obvious difference is the men’s championship features 68 teams compared to 64 on the women’s side.

Clearly there are differences beyond that statement that the NCAA could attribute to the few other minor differences, but couldn't they say that the women's rules basically follow the men's rules published last August? Those rules would indicate that UConn and Louisville cannot be together, or MD and UNC for that matter either.

 

[Phil]

I think Creme overstates the case though.
He was upset in 2012 when TAMU was sent to Raleigh and not Des Moines to face Baylor. College Station is indeed closer to DM than Rale (13 hrs vs 18 hrs), but did that really violate the spirit of the rule? I don't think so.

I do think UConn ends up in Louisville, but partially because Lou's resume is not as strong as some claim.

I'm not following your point about Louisville's resume. If it was weak enough to deserve a 3 seed, then UConn cannot go there, but that's clearly not your point.

If they were strong enough to be a one seed, UConn would go there, but they are not and that's not your point.

Are you arguing that it matters whether Louisville is a weak or strong 2 seed? If so, why?

 

[UConnCat]

I think Creme overstates the case though.
He was upset in 2012 when TAMU was sent to Raleigh and not Des Moines to face Baylor. College Station is indeed closer to DM than Rale (13 hrs vs 18 hrs), but did that really violate the spirit of the rule? I don't think so.

I do think UConn ends up in Louisville, but partially because Lou's resume is not as strong as some claim.

I don't understand your post. What case is Creme overstating? Feinberg's post said it would be wrong to put UConn and L'Ville in the same region and Creme says the committee has done it before, giving UConn-RU and A&M-Baylor as two examples.

 

[Vowelguy]

If it was weak enough to deserve a 3 seed, then UConn cannot go there.

Huh?

Are you arguing that it matters whether Louisville is a weak or strong 2 seed? If so, why?

I'm guessing there will be some debate in the room about whether it's fair to send UConn to Louisville. If Lou were #5 in the committee rankings, then the debate intensifies. And it also makes that regional quite strong, which is something the committee tries to avoid.
But I think Baylor is better than Louisville, so I'm not sure that sending UConn to Omaha to face them is any "fairer" to the Huskies.

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't understand your post. What case is Creme overstating?

Charlie Creme ‏@CharlieCreme Mar 3
@DougFeinberg I agree that's as it should be,Doug, but it would go completely against the principles application for the last few yrs.

 

[Phil]

But again, this is official statement from the NCAA site:

• 
  [ ]Are selection, seeding and bracketing the same for the men and women?
  There are a few minor differences in the principles and procedures. The most obvious difference is the men’s championship features 68 teams compared to 64 on the women’s side.

Clearly there are differences beyond that statement that the NCAA could attribute to the few other minor differences, but couldn't they say that the women's rules basically follow the men's rules published last August? Those rules would indicate that UConn and Louisville cannot be together, or MD and UNC for that matter either.

That's an intriguing possibility, that the women's selection committee failed to update their P&P because they intended to use the men's P&P

However, that seems untenable.

For example this rule, which is in bold:

A team will not be permitted to play in any facility in which it has played more than three games during its season, not including conference post-season tournaments.​

doesn't work.

Nor this one (also in bold):

A host institution’s team shall not be permitted to play at the site where the institution is hosting.​

I don't catch why you say UConn and Louisville couldn't be together.

Their new rules:

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.
Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the third round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.​

Specifically allow UConn and Louisville as long as they are the one and two seeds.

 

[Phil]

Huh?



I'm guessing there will be some debate in the room about whether it's fair to send UConn to Louisville. If Lou were #5 in the committee rankings, then the debate intensifies. And it also makes that regional quite strong, which is something the committee tries to avoid.

OK. I think that balance is way down the list, and other issues will dominate, but I suppose someone might bring up balance.

 

[toadfoot]

At the risk of being accused of flogging a dead horse... Charlie Creme's bracket is based on the current RPI, which is a horribly flawed measurement. You'd think that SOMEONE at the NCAA would be comparing the RPI against actual game results and a simple "eye test" and be asking some serious questions about the validity of the RPI formula.

Case in point, LSU has an RPI of 13 and SOS of 1, yet their only victory over a top 25 team was against Tennessee in January. Overall they're 1-8 versus top 25 teams and they have an RPI of 13!!! Seriously! This is a perfect illustration of the flaw of schedule strength. You just have to PLAY a strong schedule, but you don't actually have to WIN. Some teams have figured out how to create what I call "designer schedules", which is an OOC schedule which limits really low RPI teams (200+), but has many 50-150 teams. The chances of a top 25 team losing to the 50-150 group is extremely small, likely no more probable than losing to a 300 team, but their SOS doesn't suffer as much. In other words, some schools are learning to "game" the system. The sooner the NCAA wises up the better. At least part of the SOS component should include actually winning sometime.

 

[Vowelguy]

At the risk of being accused of flogging a dead horse... Charlie Creme's bracket is based on the current RPI

Creme's bracket is based on many factors.

 

[Alydar]

One possible scenario would be UConn going to Louisville and Louisville getting a 3 seed. That would allow the committee to make Tenn the top 2 (which is what they are) and send them to face Louisville in the S16. The hoopla over a possible CT UT game would drown out any complaining about the home court advantage. Except for Tenn fans who will scream bloody murder.

A question on another issue. Why is S Carolina dismissed for losing in their tournament while Stanford is still being given a 1 seed? I agree that SC had a weak OOC schedule but Stanford's OOC only has a home win against Tenn to brag about, and IMO an even weaker conference schedule. In 2001, the committee chairwoman clearly stated that the committee values winning a regular season title over the conference tournament. (ND - CT)

ESPN is going to promote Tenn over SC all day long, not because of BB superiority, but because of ratings.

I still say that the B12T winner, being a dual conference champion, will get a 1 seed. Maybe even over Stanford but definitely over Tenn.

 

[easttexastrash]

To have Stanford still a 1 seed after losing in their tournament before the final game is beyond believe. South Carolina dropped as they should to a 2 seed, but at least lost to a ranked team. His really dumb move was West Virginia, who closed season fast , and is in the Big 12 championship game trending down to a 3 seed. Apparently he threw darts at a board, and came out wrong, his logic is terrible, and can't be explained. He had an original matrix, and doesn't want to deviate from it. Lunardi tears his original brackets apart by this time, with all the changes he makes.

To have WVU drop to a 3 makes absolutley zero sense at all. Maybe if they win tonight they will drop to a 4 seed.

 

[Paul1969]

I'd rather see UConn in Nebraska (especially after playing Louisville 3X already)

 

[UConnCat]

In 2001, the committee chairwoman clearly stated that the committee values winning a regular season title over the conference tournament. (ND - CT)
.

That's especially true when one of the two teams didn't actually win the regular season title; ND and UConn tied for that title in 2001.

 

[Alydar]

Their new rules:

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.
Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the third round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.​

Specifically allow UConn and Louisville as long as they are the one and two seeds.

The above rule applies to "REGIONAL SITES". The entire geography argument rests on there being regional sites. There are no regional sites this year. And that is the whole point.

 

[Alydar]

That's especially true when one of the two teams didn't actually win the regular season title; ND and UConn teams tied for that title in 2001.

Yes, but as crazy as it sounds the committee was ignorant of that fact, as the post bracket show interview revealed.

 

[easttexastrash]

I am cool with Stanford keeping their 1 seeding. Creme makes a good point that they have 10 top-50 wins and they have the number 3 RPI.

 

[Fightin Choke]

As I've stated several times before this will be the most athletic talented team that NEVER reaches a Final 4! Sylvia Hatchell ("I don't care if we have 100 turnovers as long as we play fast!") will make this team underachieves! If it wasn't for Sylvia Crawley's 3 pointer with 1 sec. left vs GA Hatchell would have no NC! She is among the worst game coaches in the USA! Even though she's on the sidelines her staff thru her will screw it up! UCONN with the best defense in Div. I would beat NoCar. by 20+ pts.

A week or so ago you said that UConn would beat Notre Dame by 30, so why do you think that UNC is roughly 10 points better than the Irish? Or is it just that you think UConn matches up very well against Notre Dame but UNC would give them more difficulty?

 

[doggydaddy]

A week or so ago you said that UConn would beat Notre Dame by 30, so why do you think that UNC is roughly 10 points better than the Irish? Or is it just that you think UConn matches up very well against Notre Dame but UNC would give them more difficulty?

Well, golly gee, you got him.

Good job.

 

[easttexastrash]

I do not understand why anyone from UCONN would prefer to go to Lincoln and face the the unknown when you know what Louisville offers and you know that you can beat them. If the games had been close I could see you not wanting to play them again, but if Baylor beat a team three times by an average of 20 points, I would be praying to be sent to play them again.

Watch what you wish for because there are several teams that are better than UL (SCar, WVU, Baylor, Kentucky) that you might have to play. If I were UCONN, I would MUCH rather play UL again than meet up with S. Carolina!

 

[DobbsRover2]

That's an intriguing possibility, that the women's selection committee failed to update their P&P because they intended to use the men's P&P

However, that seems untenable.

For example this rule, which is in bold:

A team will not be permitted to play in any facility in which it has played more than three games during its season, not including conference post-season tournaments.​

doesn't work.

Nor this one (also in bold):

A host institution’s team shall not be permitted to play at the site where the institution is hosting.​

I don't catch why you say UConn and Louisville couldn't be together.

Their new rules:

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.
Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the third round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.​

Specifically allow UConn and Louisville as long as they are the one and two seeds.

Okay, one more time with the FIRST statement that everyone keeps skipping over.

• Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

UConn and Louisville ARE seeded on the first four lines, or is someone thinking they will fall to a #5 seed?

All of the other stuff you point to could all be considered some of the "few other differences" of the men's and women's rules. Clearly the item about not playing on your home court gets tossed for the women, so of course the venue stuff does not apply. But I'm talking about SEEDING questions, not the inherent differences in the men's and women's tourneys that are a given.

 

[UConnCat]

Yes, but as crazy as it sounds the committee was ignorant of that fact, as the post bracket show interview revealed.

Yes, one of the more bizarre selection show conference calls.

Chair Maryalyce Jeremiah: "Notre Dame won the conference. . . UConn won the conference tournament... week in and week out UConn didn't win the conference."

Courant's Lori Riley: "Actually, Notre Dame and UConn tied for the Big East regular season title."

Silence.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I do not understand why anyone from UCONN would prefer to go to Lincoln and face the the unknown when you know what Louisville offers and you know that you can beat them. If the games had been close I could see you not wanting to play them again, but if Baylor beat a team three times by an average of 20 points, I would be praying to be sent to play them again.

Watch what you wish for because there are several teams that are better than UL (SCar, WVU, Baylor, Kentucky) that you might have to play. If I were UCONN, I would MUCH rather play UL again than meet up with S. Carolina!

Yep, Baylor was cackling up a storm when they saw they only got that poor perimeter shooting team Louisville for their likely third-round opponent. And this year when the Cards are shooting way better out there than both last year's team and this year's Baylor team, why of course you'd rather play them even more. Makes perfect sense I guess if you're from Waco. But never let the facts get in the way of an opinion.

And back in 2011, UConn averaged 11 point margins over ND in the first three encounters, but the fourth time was not a charm.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Baylor didn't like it when A&M was in their Bracket 2010/11 and UConn won't like it this year if Louisville is in the bracket. As A&M proved in 2011 its hard to beat a good team four times. Baylor beat A&M 3 times during conference play and tournament, only to lose to A&M for the right to go to the Final Four. How about last year, when ND beat UConn three times and then lost to UConn at the Final Four. I'm sure ND would have preferred to not have to face UConn to get to the National Championship game.

I do not understand why anyone from UCONN would prefer to go to Lincoln and face the the unknown when you know what Louisville offers and you know that you can beat them. If the games had been close I could see you not wanting to play them again, but if Baylor beat a team three times by an average of 20 points, I would be praying to be sent to play them again.

Watch what you wish for because there are several teams that are better than UL (SCar, WVU, Baylor, Kentucky) that you might have to play. If I were UCONN, I would MUCH rather play UL again than meet up with S. Carolina!

 

[easttexastrash]

A week or so ago you said that UConn would beat Notre Dame by 30, so why do you think that UNC is roughly 10 points better than the Irish? Or is it just that you think UConn matches up very well against Notre Dame but UNC would give them more difficulty?

One possible scenario would be UConn going to Louisville and Louisville getting a 3 seed. That would allow the committee to make Tenn the top 2 (which is what they are) and send them to face Louisville in the S16. The hoopla over a possible CT UT game would drown out any complaining about the home court advantage. Except for Tenn fans who will scream bloody murder.

A question on another issue. Why is S Carolina dismissed for losing in their tournament while Stanford is still being given a 1 seed? I agree that SC had a weak OOC schedule but Stanford's OOC only has a home win against Tenn to brag about, and IMO an even weaker conference schedule. In 2001, the committee chairwoman clearly stated that the committee values winning a regular season title over the conference tournament. (ND - CT)

ESPN is going to promote Tenn over SC all day long, not because of BB superiority, but because of ratings.

I still say that the B12T winner, being a dual conference champion, will get a 1 seed. Maybe even over Stanford but definitely over Tenn.

In their defense they do have the #3 RPI and # 15 SOS with 10 top-50 RIP wins. S Carolina is #8 RPI with a SOS of 25.

 

[easttexastrash]

Baylor didn't like it when A&M was in their Bracket 2010/11 and UConn won't like it this year if Louisville is in the bracket. As A&M proved in 2011 its hard to beat a good team four times. Baylor beat A&M 3 times during conference play and tournament, only to lose to A&M for the right to go to the Final Four. How about last year, when ND beat UConn three times and then lost to UConn at the Final Four. I'm sure ND would have preferred to not have to face UConn to get to the National Championship game.

The difference is that the Baylor vs TAMU games were close, as were the UCONN vs. ND games last year, which is why I made the point about the average winning margain of 20 points. Everyone is acting like going to Lousiville would be like going to play the Miami Heat.

Louisville is soooooo far from equal to UCONN in talent that the situation is completely different than the two examples you used. UCONN being sent to Louisville is as close to a guarantee as you can get of making it to the FF. If you think you would rather face S. Carolina than Louisville, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I would like to discuss with you.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The difference is that the Baylor vs TAMU games were close, which is why I made the point about the average winning margain of 20 points.

Louisville is soooooo far from equal to UCONN in talent that the situation is completely different than the two examples you used. UCONN being sent to Louisville is as close to a guarantee as you can get of making it to the FF. If you think you would rather face S. Carolina than Louisville, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I would like to discuss with you.

And last year's Baylor and Louisville were sooooo far from equal in talent that no type of problems for the favored team could erupt, I suppose? Whether it's 3, 11, or 20 average margins, the fact is no team has ever beaten another four times in the same year, so it's just not something you want to face.

 

[BlueDevils]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Charlie Creme Column: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...hip-week-produces-plenty-bracketology-changes

Stanford still have the easiest bracket. Duke may have played ND tough, but no way are they competitive enough to reach the Final Four, never mind the elite 8.

While I think Geno's team is too strong defensively, don't like North Carolina in the bracket. They're a dangerous 4 seed.

Obviously you didn't watch Duke the entire ACC tournament if you aren't giving them any chance of making the elite eight. Losing both point guards has Duke playing much better defensive, and Elizabeth is playing like the 2nd best center in the league. You're going to have to shoot the ball well against the matchup zone, which can have 4 6"3 players at a time" and beat them in transition to defeat Duke. Kentucky's press can cause Duke troubles, but I don't think they can score consistently when you slow them down. IMHO, Duke is better than Stanford even without Alexis Jones and Chelsea Gray. Bottom line if Duke is not in either Uconn or Notre Dame bracket they have a very realistic chance at making the Final Four.

 

[BlueDevils]

In that "dangerous" UNC team you're talking about... Duke held them to 33% from the floor 3 days ago.

 

[triaddukefan]

Obviously you didn't watch Duke the entire ACC tournament if you aren't giving them any chance of making the elite eight. Losing both point guards has Duke playing much better defensive, and Elizabeth is playing like the 2nd best center in the league. You're going to have to shoot the ball well against the matchup zone, which can have 4 6"3 players at a time" and beat them in transition to defeat Duke. Kentucky's press can cause Duke troubles, but I don't think they can score consistently when you slow them down. IMHO, Duke is better than Stanford even without Alexis Jones and Chelsea Gray. Bottom line if Duke is not in either Uconn or Notre Dame bracket they have a very realistic chance at making the Final Four.

So you are saying Gatling is the best center... or Howard (FSU)

In that "dangerous" UNC team you're talking about... Duke held them to 33% from the floor 3 days ago.

Thats what makes them dangerous.... they might shoot 33% one game... and 60% the next

 

[BlueDevils]

So you are saying Gatling is the best center... or Howard (FSU)



Thats what makes them dangerous.... they might shoot 33% one game... and 60% the next

Liz is the best center in the ACC, after that my order would be Notre Dame Center, Howard, then Gatling... WOW the Acc has some good centers. Dolson is the only center I would rank ahead of Liz.

The point I was trying to make is that Duke defensive has stepped up. They shot a better fg% then each one of their opponents in the ACC tourny.