Monday's Bracketology and Explanation

[UConnCat]

Liz is the best center in the ACC, after that my order would be Notre Dame Center, Howard, then Gatling... WOW the Acc has some good centers. Dolson is the only center I would rank ahead of Liz.

The point I was trying to make is that Duke defensive has stepped up. They shot a better fg% then each one of their opponents in the ACC tourny.

I thought Duke's interior defense was better in the ACC tournament than it has been in the recent past, largely because of the improved play of Williams. But the top of the zone is actually slower at closing on shooters than it was before the injuries, and it wasn't that good to begin with. The reality is that jump shots are tougher to make in the post-season particularly for a young, undisciplined team like Carolina that just kept jacking up shots. Better teams will find the weak spots in Duke's zone (and there are many) and eventually make open shots. Plus, without Jones and Gray, Duke is limited to playing zone almost exclusively which is not ideal. Still, I think Duke's biggest concern as it moves on in the tournament will be putting points on the board which is why I'd be shocked if Duke made the FF.

 

[robert]

louisville should be 1 in louisville region while tenn shld be 2 in louisville region....louisville is #3 higher rank than tenn,uconn huskies shld go to lincoln region...

 

[easttexastrash]

louisville should be 1 in louisville region while tenn shld be 2 in louisville region....louisville is #3 higher rank than tenn,uconn huskies shld go to lincoln region...

UT won their conference tourney, has the number 4 SOS and #5 RPI and wins over 12 top 50 RPI teams.

UL will not win their conference, has the #72 SOS and #7 RPI and 1 win over a top 20 RPI team (#13 LSU) and one over a top 50 RIP team (#38 Florida State).

Now, look at that and justify Louisville as being a 1 seed over UT. I am not saying that UCONN should not go to Lincoln, but Louisville certainly has NOT earned a #1 seed over UT.

 

[BlueDevils]

UT won their conference tourney, has the number 4 SOS and #5 RPI and wins over 12 top 50 RPI teams.

UL will not win their conference, has the #72 SOS and #7 RPI and 1 win over a top 20 RPI team (#12 Kentucky) and one top 50 RIP team (#38 Florida State).

Now, look at that and justify Louisville as being a 1 seed over UT.

Please keep schooling them lol

 

[BlueDevils]

I thought Duke's interior defense was better in the ACC tournament than it has been in the recent past, largely because of the improved play of Williams. But the top of the zone is actually slower at closing on shooters than it was before the injuries, and it wasn't that good to begin with. The reality is that jump shots are tougher to make in the post-season particularly for a young, undisciplined team like Carolina that just kept jacking up shots. Better teams will find the weak spots in Duke's zone (and there are many) and eventually make open shots. Plus, without Jones and Gray, Duke is limited to playing zone almost exclusively which is not ideal. Still, I think Duke's biggest concern as it moves on in the tournament will be putting points on the board which is why I'd be shocked if Duke made the FF.

Very good analysis on Duke's zone specifically the top of it which is pretty slow, but the point was if the brackets stayed put Duke still has a realistic shot at making the elite eight, and even the final four. Duke typically only struggles on offense against two teams... I doubt Kentucky could hold Tricia Liston under 10 points IMHO. Liston scored 28 points against Kentucky earlier this season, and she got most of her points by scoring inside on their smaller defenders. If Duke were to play Stanford in the elite eight I'll be very upset with a loss.

 

[UConnCat]

Very good analysis on Duke's zone specifically the top of it which is pretty slow, but the point was if the brackets stayed put Duke still has a realistic shot at making the elite eight, and even the final four. Duke typically only struggles on offense against two teams... I doubt Kentucky could hold Tricia Liston under 10 points IMHO. Liston scored 28 points against Kentucky earlier this season, and she got most of her points by scoring inside on their smaller defenders. If Duke were to play Stanford in the elite eight I'll be very upset with a loss.

I hope you're right. I'm pulling for Duke's seniors. They've been through a lot and deserve some success.

 

[easttexastrash]

louisville should be 1 in louisville region while tenn shld be 2 in louisville region....louisville is #3 higher rank than tenn,uconn huskies shld go to lincoln region...

As far as that goes, Baylor has 8 top 50 RPI wins, and could have 9 after tonight. If Baylor wins tonight they should be the top 2 seed, as I think UT is the most deserving of the 4th number 1 seed. I suspect that Baylor and UT will match up in Lincoln and that WVU will be sent to either Stanford or ND. The 2 seeds will be WVU, Baylor, Louisville and Duke/USC, with Duke getting my vote based on their "bear" of a schedule. I might actually slide Louisville to a 3 as I think S. Carolina AND Duke are more deserving of a 2 seed, than Louisville.

Top 50 Wins
Baylor: 8 (possibly 9 after tonight)
Louisville: 2

RPI
Louisville: 7
Baylor: 9

SOS
Baylor: 41
Louisville: 72

A case can certainly be made for Baylor over Louisville, as well.

 

[easttexastrash]

Please keep schooling them lol

I just don't understand this desiere to put Louisville as a 1 seed when they have done NOTHING to EARN the seeding. The committee has a history of rewarding teams that have beaten other good teams. There are many schools who have done that and Louisville simply has not. It's all about perception to many. UCONN has beaten Louisville by an average of 23.3 points the last three times that they have played. And that screams 1 seed for Louisville to anyone?

 

[triaddukefan]

Very good analysis on Duke's zone specifically the top of it which is pretty slow, but the point was if the brackets stayed put Duke still has a realistic shot at making the elite eight, and even the final four. Duke typically only struggles on offense against two teams... I doubt Kentucky could hold Tricia Liston under 10 points IMHO. Liston scored 28 points against Kentucky earlier this season, and she got most of her points by scoring inside on their smaller defenders. If Duke were to play Stanford in the elite eight I'll be very upset with a loss.

Hey, she didnt get that title under her name for nothing

 

[easttexastrash]

Hey, she didnt get that title under her name for nothing

I have to say that the Duke performances this past week were really nice surprises. It was such bad luck to lose players the way Duke did but to hang tough and put in such a good showing is worthy of my respect. I hope they have a good showing in the tourney, unless they play Baylor.

 

[easttexastrash]

As far as that goes, Baylor has 8 top 50 RPI wins, and could have 9 after tonight. If Baylor wins tonight they should be the top 2 seed, as I think UT is the most deserving of the 4th number 1 seed. I suspect that Baylor and UT will match up in Lincoln and that WVU will be sent to either Stanford or ND. The 2 seeds will be WVU, Baylor, Louisville and Duke/USC, with Duke getting my vote based on their "bear" of a schedule. I might actually slide Louisville to a 3 as I think S. Carolina AND Duke are more deserving of a 2 seed, than Louisville.

Top 50 Wins
Baylor: 8 (possibly 9 after tonight)
Louisville: 2

RPI
Louisville: 7
Baylor: 9

SOS
Baylor: 41
Louisville: 72

A case can certainly be made for Baylor over Louisville, as well.

I have now convinced myself that Louisville should be a 3 seed...no higher than 3, and the lowest 3 seed, at that. Teams that I put ahead of them:

• UCONN
• Notre Dame
• Tennessee
• Stanford
• Duke
• WVU
• Baylor
• South Carolina
• Kentucky
• Maryland
• North Carolina

 

[BlueDevils]

I just don't understand this desiere to put Louisville as a 1 seed when they have done NOTHING to EARN the seeding. The committee has a history of rewarding teams that have beaten other good teams. There are many schools who have done that and Louisville simply has not. It's all about perception to many. UCONN has beaten Louisville by an average of 23.3 points the last three times that they have played. And that screams 1 seed for Louisville to anyone?

ONLY because Uconn FANS don't want to see them play Louisville a 4th time to get to the Final Four. Hell if Duke beat a team 3 times already by an average of 20+ I'll be for beating them again. There's nothing that can convince me Louisville should be a number one seed other then beating Uconn tonight.

 

[easttexastrash]

ONLY because Uconn FANS don't want to see them play Louisville a 4th time to get to the Final Four. Hell if Duke beat a team 3 times already by an average of 20+ I'll be for beating them again. There's nothing that can convince me Louisville should be a number one seed other then beating Uconn tonight.

I'm not even convinced that they should be a two seed. I would put Duke ahead of Louisville since Louisville hasn't proven anything to me other than a decent win over LSU and then a win over #38 FSU.

 

[triaddukefan]

I have to say that the Duke performances this past week were really nice surprises. It was such bad luck to lose players the way Duke did but to hang tough and put in such a good showing is worthy of my respect. I hope they have a good showing in the tourney, unless they play Baylor.

Heck, I was surprised as well. I went to senior night, and saw our performance vs Wake Forest and was Honestly thought we would lose the regular season finale @ UNC by 20+, lose the opening round game in the ACC's, and winning maybe one game max in the NCAAs. Well obviously I was wrong on the first two, and I think we should advance to the Sweet 16 at least

 

[Alydar]

Top 50 RPI wins is nice to compare 2 bubble teams but when the topic is who is a 1 seed you need to look at how they play against the top 10 , and in that Tenn is weak.

These are the 25th-50th RPI teams:

2525SyracuseAtlantic Coast22-96-54- 112-30-0
2626Bowling GreenMid-American27-311-23- 113-00-0
2728CaliforniaPac-1221-98-32- 211-40-0
2827Oklahoma St.Big 1223-85-44- 114-30-0
2931St. John's (NY)Big East21-98-52- 011-40-0
3029DePaulBig East25-68-44- 013-20-0
3130Michigan St.Big Ten22-98-42- 212-30-0
3233Arizona St.Pac-1222-95-73- 114-10-0
3332Oregon St.Pac-1223-106-53- 413-11-0
3443FordhamAtlantic 1025-77-64- 014-10-0
3534Central Mich.Mid-American20-108-81- 211-00-0
3640Southern CaliforniaPac-1222-128-56- 18-60-0
3736Southern Miss.Conference USA24-57-40- 015-12-0
3835Georgia TechAtlantic Coast20-115-54- 211-40-0
3937Florida St.Atlantic Coast20-118-52- 110-50-0
4039BYUWest Coast25-511-31- 013-20-0
4138Iowa St.Big 1220-107-42- 111-50-0
4241South Dakota St.Summit22-87-61- 214-00-0
4342VanderbiltSoutheastern18-126-60- 112-50-0
4444MinnesotaBig Ten20-124-73- 113-40-0
4547MaristMetro Atlantic26-611-35- 010-30-0
4649ChattanoogaSouthern28-312-23- 113-00-0
4748St. Mary's (CA)West Coast22-88-61- 013-20-0
4846GeorgiaSoutheastern20-113-82- 115-20-0
4950James MadisonColonial25-511-22- 212-10-0
5045VillanovaBig East22-811-33- 18-40-0


http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

Would anyone realistically base a 1 seed decision on victories against these teams?

 

[easttexastrash]

Heck, I was surprised as well. I went to senior night, and saw our performance vs Wake Forest and was Honestly thought we would lose the regular season finale @ UNC by 20+, lose the opening round game in the ACC's, and winning maybe one game max in the NCAAs. Well obviously I was wrong on the first two, and I think we should advance to the Sweet 16 at least

I would go one further and say possibly Elite Eight. The FF may be a tough row to hoe at this point.

 

[easttexastrash]

Top 50 RPI wins is nice to compare 2 bubble teams but when the topic is who is a 1 seed you need to look at how they play against the top 10 , and in that Tenn is weak.

These are the 25th-50th RPI teams:

2525SyracuseAtlantic Coast22-96-54- 112-30-0
2626Bowling GreenMid-American27-311-23- 113-00-0
2728CaliforniaPac-1221-98-32- 211-40-0
2827Oklahoma St.Big 1223-85-44- 114-30-0
2931St. John's (NY)Big East21-98-52- 011-40-0
3029DePaulBig East25-68-44- 013-20-0
3130Michigan St.Big Ten22-98-42- 212-30-0
3233Arizona St.Pac-1222-95-73- 114-10-0
3332Oregon St.Pac-1223-106-53- 413-11-0
3443FordhamAtlantic 1025-77-64- 014-10-0
3534Central Mich.Mid-American20-108-81- 211-00-0
3640Southern CaliforniaPac-1222-128-56- 18-60-0
3736Southern Miss.Conference USA24-57-40- 015-12-0
3835Georgia TechAtlantic Coast20-115-54- 211-40-0
3937Florida St.Atlantic Coast20-118-52- 110-50-0
4039BYUWest Coast25-511-31- 013-20-0
4138Iowa St.Big 1220-107-42- 111-50-0
4241South Dakota St.Summit22-87-61- 214-00-0
4342VanderbiltSoutheastern18-126-60- 112-50-0
4444MinnesotaBig Ten20-124-73- 113-40-0
4547MaristMetro Atlantic26-611-35- 010-30-0
4649ChattanoogaSouthern28-312-23- 113-00-0
4748St. Mary's (CA)West Coast22-88-61- 013-20-0
4846GeorgiaSoutheastern20-113-82- 115-20-0
4950James MadisonColonial25-511-22- 212-10-0
5045VillanovaBig East22-811-33- 18-40-0


http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

Would anyone realistically base a 1 seed decision on victories against these teams?

How does that compare to Louisville's top 10 match-ups?

Tennessee has wins over 6, 9, 12 X 2 and 13 X 2.

Could Louisville have wins over some of those teams? Maybe...who knows...

 

[BlueDevils]

Heck, I was surprised as well. I went to senior night, and saw our performance vs Wake Forest and was Honestly thought we would lose the regular season finale @ UNC by 20+, lose the opening round game in the ACC's, and winning maybe one game max in the NCAAs. Well obviously I was wrong on the first two, and I think we should advance to the Sweet 16 at least

A lot of us on the Duke page thought the same thing. Pleasant surprise to say the least

 

[BlueDevils]

How does that compare to Louisville's top 10 match-ups?

If i'm correct Louisville is 0-3 in top 10 matchups this year, and 0-4 after tonight. Number 1 seed numbers if you ask me

 

[Buzzyboy]

Hate to say it, but this UNC group (whom I dislike on the gut level...and find my distaste for them hard to understand), is going to be hard to beat when they are seniors. For now...OK...but they will improve and the raw talent is just sick.

I think when you think of North Carolina, you've got to talk less about the athletes and more about the coaching. They've had scads of talent year after year after year but what they've never been known for is a team that plays "team" basketball. They are typically playground type players who are selfish and don't or can't interact with their teammates for the good of the team. I'm not sure why things would change over the next couple of years.

 

[easttexastrash]

If i'm correct Louisville is 0-3 in top 10 matchups this year, and 0-4 after tonight. Number 1 seed numbers if you ask me

They are the OBVIOUS fourth #1 seed without a doubt.

 

[Buzzyboy]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Charlie Creme Column: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...hip-week-produces-plenty-bracketology-changes

Stanford still have the easiest bracket. Duke may have played ND tough, but no way are they competitive enough to reach the Final Four, never mind the elite 8.

While I think Geno's team is too strong defensively, don't like North Carolina in the bracket. They're a dangerous 4 seed.

I'm as confused as hell. Is this the actual brackets for the women's tournament or is this some guys idea as to what it'll look like????? I would think that it'd be hard to actually make brackets while there's still games or at least a game left. I know it won't happen but what if Louisville did beat the Huskies. Wouldn't that influence their possible placement in the tournament? Yet, for these brackets to be posted now by ESPN would suggest that it's already a done deal. So what is it????? Help me, guys (and gals).

 

[easttexastrash]

I'm as confused as hell. Is this the actual brackets for the women's tournament or is this some guys idea as to what it'll look like????? I would think that it'd be hard to actually make brackets while there's still games or at least a game left. I know it won't happen but what if Louisville did beat the Huskies. Wouldn't that influence their possible placement in the tournament? Yet, for these brackets to be posted now by ESPN would suggest that it's already a done deal. So what is it????? Help me, guys (and gals).

It's nothing more than food for fodder. And I am FULL of fodder.

 

[BlueDevils]

I'm as confused as hell. Is this the actual brackets for the women's tournament or is this some guys idea as to what it'll look like????? I would think that it'd be hard to actually make brackets while there's still games or at least a game left. I know it won't happen but what if Louisville did beat the Huskies. Wouldn't that influence their possible placement in the tournament? Yet, for these brackets to be posted now by ESPN would suggest that it's already a done deal. So what is it????? Help me, guys (and gals).

Bracketology, it changes daily. Happens on both mens and womens side. Helps you know were your team most likely will be, and brings more entertainment to the selection show.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Agree that the talent is very good but ... while individual skills may improve I haven't seen anything from UNC over the years to suspect that discipline which is what makes a great team will improve in three years. UNC coaches have never cared about defense or turnovers - not a recipe for a great team, but for a team that can play great today and stink tomorrow. The NCAA with three or four competitive games in a row calls for consistency as well as talent.

North Carolina has always had a massive amount of talent but was never able to really play as a team. It seems they're very content to play one on one, playground type basketball and as a result they've always been notorious underachievers. I'm hopeful that four years from now Diamond Deshields will look into a mirror and say to herself, what did I do????? Why did I sacrifice my talent to play on teams whose only identity with "team" is the fact that there are four other girls on the court at the same time that wear the same color jersey?????

 

[triaddukefan]

I would go one further and say possibly Elite Eight. The FF may be a tough row to hoe at this point.

All about the matchups.. If we can avoid teams with 2 great wings who can both drive and are tremendous shooters, then all bets are off. Look at Duke's 5 conference losses...and whom were most responsible for those. McBride & Loyd, #23 and #15 for UNC.

 

[triaddukefan]

North Carolina has always had a massive amount of talent but was never able to really play as a team. It seems they're very content to play one on one, playground type basketball and as a result they've always been notorious underachievers. I'm hopeful that four years from now Diamond Deshields will look into a mirror and say to herself, what did I do????? Why did I sacrifice my talent to play on teams whose only identity with "team" is the fact that there are four other girls on the court at the same time that wear the same color jersey?????

They didnt underachieve in 2006 with a ton of talent. They were really good in 2007 and 2008. Tremendous teams.... especially that 2006 squad. Latta going down in the Final Four killed their title shot.

Of course those were down years in WCBB...... Especially 2006.

 

[pap49cba]

The fact that we are having these endless discussions just demonstrates how much the NCAA has totally screwed up this year's tournament by allowing three of the best teams in the country to host regional finals. It made little sense last fall and it makes even less sense now. What a joke.

 

[triaddukefan]

The fact that we are having these endless discussions just demonstrates how much the NCAA has totally screwed up this year's tournament by allowing three of the best teams in the country to host regional finals. It made little sense last fall and it makes even less sense now. What a joke.

I would love for Louisville and Stanford not even make it to the Regional Final. How funny would it be to have a Maryland vs WVU final in Palo Alto in front of 85 fans...... or a Duke vs Baylor final in Louisville in front of a packed house of 194

 

[Boxerpups4me]

I think it would be a MUCH more interesting tourny if they put UCONN in Lincoln. I agree with easttexastrash that Tennessee deserves a one seed and the Baylor/WV winner deserves a one seed. Speaking of Baylor/WV..I can't believe that game isn't on ESPN