Monday night's games (ND, FSU, Bay, Stan)

[Gus Mahler]

Re Texas - Baylor: How much was not having Mompremier a factor?

And: How does Texas now compare to UConn?

 

[JordyG]

Re Texas - Baylor: How much was not having Mompremier a factor?

And: How does Texas now compare to UConn?

To my way of thinking Holmes' improvement is offset by UConn's improvement in execution, confidence and pace on offense. Also the further consistency by Crystal Dangerfield and Butler on offense become further wild card factors.

 

[gamer]

Texas put on a clinic of transition basketball tonight. So many amazing fast breaks. Speed beat size tonight in Waco. Baylor will be ready to go again, though, in Austin in just two weeks and they will be ready.

 

[ASweet3781]

Of all the teams currently outside the top 10 I think Texas is the one who could most do damage. They played a very tough non conference, have size and speed. They gave us a struggle for a while. And hopefully they don't get sent to our bracket for the 3rd year in a row. They'd have a real beef if that happens. Texas won the game with their 2nd QTR run when they built the lead to 15. And like usual, Mulkey didn't have the answers fast enough to stop the bleeding.

And if you need another reason numbers are not all you can go by, does anyone think Stanford looked better than Maryland? That the SEC deserves 2 one seeds?

 

[UcMiami]

If Maryland wins out and they should, they will be a high 2 seed. This was really TX first good win, and I wouldn't bet on them not losing once or twice to Baylor later. The Pac12 really all look suspect to me - a lot of good teams and generally good coaching, but the best teams are not top 5 material, they all reside in that 8-20 seeding area. And they will continue to beat up on each other.

 

[Plebe]

If Maryland wins out and they should, they will be a high 2 seed. This was really TX first good win, and I wouldn't bet on them not losing once or twice to Baylor later. The Pac12 really all look suspect to me - a lot of good teams and generally good coaching, but the best teams are not top 5 material, they all reside in that 8-20 seeding area. And they will continue to beat up on each other.

If Maryland were in the Pac-12 or Big 12, they wouldn't be winning out either.

 

[Bigpetunia]

Of all the teams currently outside the top 10 I think Texas is the one who could most do damage. They played a very tough non conference, have size and speed. They gave us a struggle for a while. And hopefully they don't get sent to our bracket for the 3rd year in a row. They'd have a real beef if that happens. Texas won the game with their 2nd QTR run when they built the lead to 15. And like usual, Mulkey didn't have the answers fast enough to stop the bleeding.

And if you need another reason numbers are not all you can go by, does anyone think Stanford looked better than Maryland? That the SEC deserves 2 one seeds?

Fully agree on Texas. They are a dangerous, good team getting better. They lost three early season games, which largely accounts for their current ranking. Then, against UConn in the Jimmy V, with Ariel Atkins on the bench for virtually the entire game, they played extremely tough, "winning" two of four quarters and pretty much dominating on the offensive glass. Two nice UConn runs in the second and fourth quarters sealed the Husky win, but Texas gave them all they wanted. Since then, the Longhorns have reeled off seventeen straight. Their win over Baylor should not be classified as a huge upset. If those two teams played ten times on a neutral court, I'd expect Texas to do no worse than earn an even split. Watch for them to make a lot of noise in the tourney!

 

[BroadwayVa]

So why is Texas so much more aggressive?
Running terrific plays through the posts, who have fine moves and are unafraid?
And who is their 2nd year Asst coach, just figuring the coaching game out?

No other than Tina Thompson, one of the most competitive players in the history of the W.
She's the difference.
Brilliant hire by Aston.

If they are picking up the persona of Tina Thompson--tough as grit, talented as can be--WE ARE DOOMED!!

 

[Dillon77]

Last year's ACC player of the year? They missed her badly. They also missed Briahanna Jackson, who exited the game with reported back spasms. Jackson is a very important facilitator and glue player for UL.

Hines-Allen tried to play and jogged-limped up the court. To his credit, Walz took her right out.
I agree with you about her. She's a true foward, who has presence inside and mid-range and on defense can cover outside a bit (has good foot speed), but provide weak-side help and then rebound. Along with Jackson, her companion in dirty work.
Without the threat of her at the "ACC" or lower, ND clamped down on Moore. Durr went off, but one can't expect her to do that game-in and game-out. People will just faceguard her and force her right.

I think the two young big players will give the Cardinals an inside (Ciera Johnson) and outside (Kylie Shook) presence, but not this year. Sam Fuerhring (sp) seems to be an afterthought for Walz at this point. That may change if Hines and Jackson are out for a bit.

Hope for the better for both of them. I've watched Hines-Allen grow up here in Montclair, NJ, and she's a lively, spirited kid who gives it her all. Hope she recovers well.

 

[UcMiami]

If Maryland were in the Pac-12 or Big 12, they wouldn't be winning out either.

Maybe not, but do any of the Pac12 have a win against a top 15 team that is not part of the Pac12? That is my issue with the Pac12. Only a few of them played decent OOC schedules, and they lost the games against the 'good teams' in those schedules. Oregon State - only top 50 wins OOC are Quinnipiac and Marquette 49 and 43. Wahington - one OOC win against Missouri at #30. UCLA - lost to SC and Baylor and wins against # 29 Michigan and #50 Iowa. Stanford - beat TX and lost to TN (and #78 Gonzaga.) And then AZ State with a 24 RPI and best win is KY, and losses to Maryland and Marquette and has lost 6 games in conference.) None of those records is any more impressive to me than Maryland. RPI completely falls down when looking at 350 teams and pretending that a top ten quality team that plays an OOC of RPI 100 range teams is twice as good (or in anyway better) than a top ten team playing RPI 200 range teams - top ten teams should be able to write their own scores against either of those sets of teams. And because you have over-inflated those OOC RPIs (win or lose) you now compound it with everyone playing each other in conference, again win or lose. Arizona State has an RPI of 24 with a record of 4-7 against top 50 RPI teams. (And Aubrun right behind them at #25 has a record of 2-8 against top 50 teams)
And TX played 5 teams OOC in the top 100 RPI and went 1-4 with the one win against TN at home. They have three top 50 RPI wins against conference foes OK, KSU at home and now Baylor which is the only really good win in the whole of their 17 game streak.
Compare that to Baylor who have lost their two top 10 RPI games but have played and beaten UCLA, TN, and DePaul in the top 15 RPI and Ohio State at #31 as well as the KSU, OK.

 

[JordyG]

Maybe not, but do any of the Pac12 have a win against a top 15 team that is not part of the Pac12? That is my issue with the Pac12. Only a few of them played decent OOC schedules, and they lost the games against the 'good teams' in those schedules. Oregon State - only top 50 wins OOC are Quinnipiac and Marquette 49 and 43. Wahington - one OOC win against Missouri at #30. UCLA - lost to SC and Baylor and wins against # 29 Michigan and #50 Iowa. Stanford - beat TX and lost to TN (and #78 Gonzaga.) And then AZ State with a 24 RPI and best win is KY, and losses to Maryland and Marquette and has lost 6 games in conference.) None of those records is any more impressive to me than Maryland. RPI completely falls down when looking at 350 teams and pretending that a top ten quality team that plays an OOC of RPI 100 range teams is twice as good (or in anyway better) than a top ten team playing RPI 200 range teams - top ten teams should be able to write their own scores against either of those sets of teams. And because you have over-inflated those OOC RPIs (win or lose) you now compound it with everyone playing each other in conference, again win or lose. Arizona State has an RPI of 24 with a record of 4-7 against top 50 RPI teams. (And Aubrun right behind them at #25 has a record of 2-8 against top 50 teams)
And TX played 5 teams OOC in the top 100 RPI and went 1-4 with the one win against TN at home. They have three top 50 RPI wins against conference foes OK, KSU at home and now Baylor which is the only really good win in the whole of their 17 game streak.
Compare that to Baylor who have lost their two top 10 RPI games but have played and beaten UCLA, TN, and DePaul in the top 15 RPI and Ohio State at #31 as well as the KSU, OK.

Again well said and thought out. You were on holiday correct? Hope it was fun and fulfilling. Glad to hear from you.

 

[Vowelguy]

Maybe not, but do any of the Pac12 have a win against a top 15 team that is not part of the Pac12? That is my issue with the Pac12. Only a few of them played decent OOC schedules, and they lost the games against the 'good teams' in those schedules.

If only there were a way to synthesize many different data points into a coherent ranking ...

Oh wait, there is! The Sagarin & Massey computer rankings.

Wash: #7 Sag / #9 Mas
Ore St: #12 / #10
Stanford: #10 / #11
UCLA: #13 / #12

 

[eebmg]

Ouch. Stanford gets dumped on their home court, losing to #15 UCLA. It wasn't a fluke. Bruins trailed at half, but fought back and really dominated the second half. Jordin Canada is for (very) real, at least she was tonight. Final score: UCLA 85 - Stanford 76.

Karlie Samuelson was the best cardinal on the court.

6-9 from the field 2-5 from 3 pt total 15 pts and 7 assists with 0 turnovers.

Katie Lou needs to get her act together for bragging rights.

 

[JoePgh]

Karlie Samuelson was the best cardinal on the court.

6-9 from the field 2-5 from 3 pt total 15 pts and 7 assists with 0 turnovers.

Katie Lou needs to get her act together for bragging rights.

So far, Tara cannot say that she got the NC-winning Samuelson.

 

[Plebe]

Maybe not, but do any of the Pac12 have a win against a top 15 team that is not part of the Pac12? That is my issue with the Pac12. Only a few of them played decent OOC schedules, and they lost the games against the 'good teams' in those schedules. Oregon State - only top 50 wins OOC are Quinnipiac and Marquette 49 and 43. Wahington - one OOC win against Missouri at #30. UCLA - lost to SC and Baylor and wins against # 29 Michigan and #50 Iowa. Stanford - beat TX and lost to TN (and #78 Gonzaga.) And then AZ State with a 24 RPI and best win is KY, and losses to Maryland and Marquette and has lost 6 games in conference.) None of those records is any more impressive to me than Maryland. RPI completely falls down when looking at 350 teams and pretending that a top ten quality team that plays an OOC of RPI 100 range teams is twice as good (or in anyway better) than a top ten team playing RPI 200 range teams - top ten teams should be able to write their own scores against either of those sets of teams. And because you have over-inflated those OOC RPIs (win or lose) you now compound it with everyone playing each other in conference, again win or lose. Arizona State has an RPI of 24 with a record of 4-7 against top 50 RPI teams. (And Aubrun right behind them at #25 has a record of 2-8 against top 50 teams)
And TX played 5 teams OOC in the top 100 RPI and went 1-4 with the one win against TN at home. They have three top 50 RPI wins against conference foes OK, KSU at home and now Baylor which is the only really good win in the whole of their 17 game streak.
Compare that to Baylor who have lost their two top 10 RPI games but have played and beaten UCLA, TN, and DePaul in the top 15 RPI and Ohio State at #31 as well as the KSU, OK.

Well, if you say that none of those records is "any more impressive" to you than Maryland's, then it seems that you actually agree with the committee, which in both reveals has sandwiched the four top Pac-12 teams around Maryland (two above and two below). Think of it as a tie, with neither more impressive than the other.

It should and does make a difference in the evaluation when an ostensibly elite team elects to play so many games against the likes of UMass-Lowell and Maryland Eastern Shore rather than teams like Marquette and Gonzaga that are capable of an upset. In fact, Washington State had Maryland in a tied game in the 4th quarter. If Maryland had played a few more teams like Washington State, a close 4th quarter might not have tipped their way.

 

[UcMiami]

If only there were a way to synthesize many different data points into a coherent ranking ....

Oh wait, there is! The Sagarin & Massey computer rankings.

Wash: #7 Sag / #9 Mas
Ore St: #12 / #10
Stanford: #10 / #11
UCLA: #13 / #12

Yeah, I certainly trust them more, but they too can be fooled with a lack of quality data to input and the Pac12 more than other conferences because of the travel issues starves them of quality input for their systems. The five teams I listed are the top five in the Pac12 and the total quality OOC play from those teams are:
Oregon State - zero quality OOC games, with a bad loss to Marquette on their home court.
Washington - one quality OOC game, a loss to ND away.
Stanford - two quality OOC games, a win against TX at home and a loss at TN, and a bad loss to Gonzaga at home
UCLA - two quality OOC games, both losses on the road to Baylor and SC
AZ State - two quality OOC games, loss to MD at home and a win at KY (not sure how quality that is but...) and a bad loss to Marquette.
That works out to 1.4 quality games per team OOC and more importantly 0.4 quality wins per team, and 1.0 quality losses per team, AND o.6 bad losses per team. That is seriously sparse data so most of what they are dealing with is whatever initial assumptions were made, and them performing well against the dregs of their schedule and not laying too many eggs in the mediocrity of the 30-75 range of teams they played.

 

[Vowelguy]

whatever initial assumptions were made,

Huh? Any computer rating worth its salt will be entirely self-contained on this year's results.

 

[Plebe]

Yeah, I certainly trust them more, but they too can be fooled with a lack of quality data to input and the Pac12 more than other conferences because of the travel issues starves them of quality input for their systems. The five teams I listed are the top five in the Pac12 and the total quality OOC play from those teams are:
Oregon State - zero quality OOC games, with a bad loss to Marquette on their home court.
Washington - one quality OOC game, a loss to ND away.
Stanford - two quality OOC games, a win against TX at home and a loss at TN, and a bad loss to Gonzaga at home
UCLA - two quality OOC games, both losses on the road to Baylor and SC
AZ State - two quality OOC games, loss to MD at home and a win at KY (not sure how quality that is but....) and a bad loss to Marquette.
That works out to 1.4 quality games per team OOC and more importantly 0.4 quality wins per team, and 1.0 quality losses per team, AND o.6 bad losses per team. That is seriously sparse data so most of what they are dealing with is whatever initial assumptions were made, and them performing well against the dregs of their schedule and not laying too many eggs in the mediocrity of the 30-75 range of teams they played.

I can't resist the temptation to point out that all of these arguments are virtually identical to what was heard in the run-up to the tourney last year: "The Pac-12 is overrated!" "All they did is game the RPI!" "They didn't do anything in the OOC!" And then bam, they put three teams in the Elite 8 and two in the Final Four, and suddenly the doubters were quieted.

 

[JavaMan]

Muffet's presser. What a difference a win makes.

Link keeps getting denied. Go to YouTube.com and add "/watch?v=FcKwYvFTu_M" without the quote marks, behind the ".com"

​

 

[JavaMan]

It really is there. Not sure if it's Notre Dame or the Boneyard that is blocking this. I'd love to know! This is what keeps appearing using the normal link.

Here is a search that found it for me.

​

 

[mhshuskies]

I looked in at the ND game and they look a lot better than they were in their unforeseen losses.
Ball moving, shots falling, bench contributing.

At Waco, on FS1 Texas now doing everything, up by 10....Karen seems to have picked up transition offense from....I wonder whom?

Thats how overated L'Ville is, they even make nd look good.

 

[Plebe]

Thats how overated L'Ville is, they even make nd look good.

Louisville was without Hines-Allen and Jackson. Imagine if UConn had to play Notre Dame without Gabby and without Nurse.

 

[UcMiami]

Huh? Any computer rating worth its salt will be entirely self-contained on this year's results.

I really don't know how Massey and Sagarin work, but they obviously have some adjustments built in at the start of each year, otherwise teams losing their first game would disappear from the top 100 and they do not. Over time that gets better but I don't believe it ever truly disappears.

I can't resist the temptation to point out that all of these arguments are virtually identical to what was heard in the run-up to the tourney last year: "The Pac-12 is overrated!" "All they did is game the RPI!" "They didn't do anything in the OOC!" And then bam, they put three teams in the Elite 8 and two in the Final Four, and suddenly the doubters were quieted.

Yes, but last year was the aberration based on the last decade. The Pac12 before last year with the exception of Stanford was pretty consistent in not playing to their seeding. And I suspect we may see a return to that pattern this year.

 

[Vowelguy]

I really don't know how Massey and Sagarin work, but they obviously have some adjustments built in at the start of each year, otherwise teams losing their first game would disappear from the top 100 and they do not. Over time that gets better but I don't believe it ever truly disappears.
.

I am 99.9999% sure it does.

 

[Tonyc]

Thinking about the upsets and how these teams compare to UConn and what they might do against UConn? My answer....UConn plays terrific defense and no other team plays that kind of defense. UConns quickness will beat every body elses height barring injuries and foul trouble.