Moe Harkless makes his decision...

[tzznandrew]

Because the NBA drafts on potential, Drummond has to go now. Here's the calculus at work:

If he goes:
80% chance he gets ~$10MM (rookie contract), 20% chance he gets ~$50MM (not a great chance he gets a big payday)

If he stays:
50% chance he gets ~$10MM (rookie contract), 40% chance he gets ~$50MM (much better chance of getting a big second contract), 10% chance he gets nothing (gets either injured or exposed as unskilled and doesn't make the NBA at all)

Staying would probably get him more money on average, and a better chance of a more fulfilling career, but the way he sees it, if he goes, there's a 100% chance he's a millionaire and if he stays, there's a 10% chance he gets nothing.

This is a stacked draft class. He may fall from 2 to 3-4. If he stays another year, with Davis gone he can rise to #1. Also, Noel would be the only other potential #1.

Will he go? Probably. But JC loves getting kids ready for that second contract. That was half the problem with Thabeet--he went high, but will get nothing on contract #2.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is a stacked draft class. He may fall from 2 to 3-4. If he stays another year, with Davis gone he can rise to #1. Also, Noel would be the only other potential #1.

Will he go? Probably. But JC loves getting kids ready for that second contract. That was half the problem with Thabeet--he went high, but will get nothing on contract #2.

Calhoun has never had a player go too early, and in my opinion, only Khalid El-Amin stuck around too long. I think the draft is going to be very tough, but Drummond probably needs to go. Lamb is less clear. I didn't think he was a first round lock last year and he isn't a lock for the Top 20 this year, although he is pretty safe in the first round.

Thabeet's problems have nothing to do with when he went pro. Thabeet just doesn't care enough to be an NBA player. He has more money than he ever dreamed of, and he was probably asking himself why everyone in the NBA is working so hard if they are all so rich. Some guys have the ability, but it is just not important enough for them.