Moe Harkless makes his decision...

[alexd]

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/coll...john_freshman_harkless_P5FHtInUfh66zSraj9G5MI

 

[ford82]

Wow, that was quick. Bad news for St. Johns. He had a good season, but doesn't really say much about their program.

 

[Fishy]

I think I said this last week - there's no chance he's coming back.

I don't think he'll be a great pro. He doesn't have one thing that would make him a standout small forward.

 

[UCDaveD]

Because of the NBA work stoppage, many of the elite 2011 freshmen — Harrison Barnes (North Carolina), Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Percy Jones III (Baylor) — are sure to come out this year. Throw in freshmen Anthony Davis (Kentucky) and Andre Drummond (Connecticut) and the top of the draft is filling up quickly.

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They know something we don't? I still say AD is coming back for one more year.​

 

[rman726]

Because of the NBA work stoppage, many of the elite 2011 freshmen — Harrison Barnes (North Carolina), Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Percy Jones III (Baylor) — are sure to come out this year. Throw in freshmen Anthony Davis (Kentucky) and Andre Drummond (Connecticut) and the top of the draft is filling up quickly.

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They know something we don't? I still say AD is coming back for one more year.​

Sounds like a good reason for Drummond to return and improve on his game.

 

[Ed-D]

There's a good chance Drummond goes top five. He's a goner

 

[Dann]

both ad and lamb are lottery picks this year. if both come back and improve, they will be the 1 and 2 picks in the draft for 2013.

 

[ford82]

I think Lamb will leave, but I am not sure about Drummond.

 

[UCDaveD]

I have no info, and I realize he'd be a lottery pick, but it's just a gut feeling. He's coming back.

 

[Ts5034]

Lamb was looking to leave last year and was probably closer to leaving then we all thought. I would be shocked if he decided to stay. Drummond on the other hand i think is 50-50. I wouldnt be surprised either way because i could see both sides to it. I think the straw that will break the camels back is if theres a decision on the 2013 tournament by the date they have to declare for the NBA.

 

[61cygni]

This loaded draft is reason enough for anyone projected to go in the mid-late first round and lower to rethink early entry into the NBA draft this year.

 

[UCDaveD]

Lamb was looking to leave last year and was probably closer to leaving then we all thought. I would be shocked if he decided to stay. Drummond on the other hand i think is 50-50. I wouldnt be surprised either way because i could see both sides to it. I think the straw that will break the camels back is if theres a decision on the 2013 tournament by the date they have to declare for the NBA.

Knowing the NCAA, those c0cksuckers will wait until the day after the declaration deadline to make an announcement.

 

[UCHuskies08]

Drummond has said he'd be back.

Not that it's worth much, but usually they give a non-response, whereas he was pretty direct.

I think it's a possibility.

The duck*ing NCAA thing is the looming dark cloud that could duck* up everything though.

 

[alexd]

I think I said this last week - there's no chance he's coming back.

I don't think he'll be a great pro. He doesn't have one thing that would make him a standout small forward.

Last week it was a "I'm going to look into the NBA and then decide" type fo answer...I guess he looked into it...

 

[willie99]

can it be this was his plan all along? can it be why he really decommitted? I'm thinking maybe JC didn't want one and done

AD has said all along he's coming back, I believe him.

Lamb IDK. I believe his stock may have dropped from last year, but many seem to think he's a still lottery pick.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I don't know if this was his plan all along but if it was he obviously would have gotten far more PT (and enough additional exposure) in Jamaica Queens than at UConn as even at the time he changed his mind we had far more wing forwards capable of beating him for playing time than the red rain had. If jumping right away was the goal, it wouldn't have happened here.

 

[high-post]

The way I look at it, Andre's draft stock isn't going down if he stays another year in school. The advantage of staying in school one more year is that he would have the chance to work on his offense in actual games while playing 30+ minutes a game. He wouldn't be glaringly underskilled at his position and I think an additional year could be really good for his confidence and decisiveness, especially if he can get 15-20 touches in the post a game.

Andre isn't going to be outclassing NBA guys on sheer physicality nearly as often and he really needs to get big minutes in competitive games, where there's pressure to perform and execute. I think there's a lot to be gained by practicing technique and execution against a lower class of competition if you aren't ready for the big time, and I'm 99% sure he's not yet ready for the NBA offensively. You cannot be a major offensive liability in the NBA and still be guaranteed consistent, meaningful minutes. Time on the floor is crucial to player development. As a big man with such a high ceiling, you absolutely have to enter the league with at least a solid jump hook or go to move. This is especially important if you don't really have much of a jumper and you're a bad free throw shooter.

So maybe in terms of financial security, going to the league now is the safe, conservative, logical play. But in the long term, I think there's a much better chance for him to maximize his basketball potential with additional time in college.

*Not to derail the Harkless thread or anything. :/

 

[upstater]

The way I look at it, Andre's draft stock isn't going down if he stays another year in school. The advantage of staying in school one more year is that he would have the chance to work on his offense in actual games while playing 30+ minutes a game. He wouldn't be glaringly underskilled at his position and I think an additional year could be really good for his confidence and decisiveness, especially if he can get 15-20 touches in the post a game.

Andre isn't going to be outclassing NBA guys on sheer physicality nearly as often and he really needs to get big minutes in competitive games, where there's pressure to perform and execute. I think there's a lot to be gained by practicing technique and execution against a lower class of competition if you aren't ready for the big time, and I'm 99% sure he's not yet ready for the NBA offensively. You cannot be a major offensive liability in the NBA and still be guaranteed consistent, meaningful minutes. Time on the floor is crucial to player development. As a big man with such a high ceiling, you absolutely have to enter the league with at least a solid jump hook or go to move. This is especially important if you don't really have much of a jumper and you're a bad free throw shooter.

So maybe in terms of financial security, going to the league now is the safe, conservative, logical play. But in the long term, I think there's a much better chance for him to maximize his basketball potential with additional time in college.

*Not to derail the Harkless thread or anything. :/

This all makes sense and yet there are millions at stake. Either way, it's a risky decision.

 

[Yonick]

IMHO, Drummond will stay if UConn is allowed to play in the 2013 tourney. As far as Lamb, I don't know.
One thing that I'm almost positive on is if we aren't allowed in the 2013 tourney, both will enter the NBA draft.

 

[CL82]

Knowing the NCAA, those c0cksuckers will wait until the day after the declaration deadline to make an announcement.

yep

 

[Brochacho]

Knowing the NCAA, those c0cksuckers will wait until the day after the declaration deadline to make an announcement.

Thats what I have been thinking all along.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is the last time we will ever hear about Moe Harkless. Kid will be in the NDBL within a year.

 

[Tenspro2002]

So maybe in terms of financial security, going to the league now is the safe, conservative, logical play. But in the long term, I think there's a much better chance for him to maximize his basketball potential with additional time in college.

Because the NBA drafts on potential, Drummond has to go now. Here's the calculus at work:

If he goes:
80% chance he gets ~$10MM (rookie contract), 20% chance he gets ~$50MM (not a great chance he gets a big payday)

If he stays:
50% chance he gets ~$10MM (rookie contract), 40% chance he gets ~$50MM (much better chance of getting a big second contract), 10% chance he gets nothing (gets either injured or exposed as unskilled and doesn't make the NBA at all)

Staying would probably get him more money on average, and a better chance of a more fulfilling career, but the way he sees it, if he goes, there's a 100% chance he's a millionaire and if he stays, there's a 10% chance he gets nothing.

 

[high-post]

If he stays:
10% chance he gets nothing (gets either injured or exposed as unskilled and doesn't make the NBA at all)

Staying would probably get him more money on average, and a better chance of a more fulfilling career, but the way he sees it, if he goes, there's a 100% chance he's a millionaire and if he stays, there's a 10% chance he gets nothing.

I get the general rationale here, but you probably need to change the "probability" of Andre not being drafted in the first round and sticking in the league for at least 5 years to something like 0.1%.
He's going to be a career 8 figure earner regardless of his staying an additional year at UConn.

 

[TheChamps990411]

AD should stay because if he goes his first year hes going to spend it coming off the bench and trying to learn how to play in the post is not something you want to learn while in the nba as a high lottery draft pick because the word bust gets thrown around quickly.