Minutes, Starting, etc

[Vowelguy]

With all the recent talk of starting and playing time, a few stats to inform the discussion ...

IMHO, overall minutes discussion are pointless since they are entirely dependent on the # and depth of blowouts, and not on players' value. Here, then, are the minutes for UConn's 13 key games last year:

Hartley .. 36
Hayes .... 33
Faris .... 32
Dolson ... 30
KML ...... 29
Doty ..... 23
Stokes ... 12
Other4 ... 5

I don't see much changes in mins for Hartley, KML, or the reserves of Banks/Buck/Engeln.
But I see decent drops for Doty, Faris, & Dolson, with a modest increase for Stokes.
That leaves ~50 mins for the frosh.

Hartley .. 35 -1
KML ...... 29 NC
Stewart .. 26
Faris .... 25 -7
Dolson ... 25 -5
Stokes ... 15 +3





Doty ..... 15 -8
Tuck ..... 14
MoJeff ... 12
Other3 ... 4 -1
----
-19 + -33 (Hayes)

 

[iri10]

I could live with that. The number of post player minutes would rise from 42+ to 80+. So there would be an "average" of two post players on the floor at once.

Too bad there's no comfortable way to make the starting lineup reflect that.

 

[JoePgh]

So it sounds like both of you who have posted above agree that 2012-13 will NOT be a year of 4-guard lineups for UConn. I heartily agree with you both about that.

Of course, the most likely scenario is that not every player is as good as we all hope they will be. Some of the less unlikely possibilities are:

- One or two of the freshmen disappoints: slow learner, bad attitude, major immaturity, academic issues, an aversion to the coaching style.
- Kiah still doesn't find it possible to play with urgency every minute of every game while she is on the floor, and to practice the same way.
- Caroline continues to be limited by her past injuries, and cannot adequately defend fast guards on opposing teams.
- Kelly can't hit a jump shot to save her life.
- Stef plays most games in foul trouble, which limits her especially on post defense.
- Brianna Banks proves to be only marginally better than she was last year, despite her best efforts.
- Heather is still a negligible offensive contributor.
- Somebody gets injured.

I don't think any of these outcomes is likely, but any of them is possible (hopefully not more than one).

Although any of the above would be a real disappointment, it would help to solve the problem of distributing the minutes -- just give the lion's share to whoever doesn't disappoint.

The interesting question is how the minutes will be distributed if none of these things happens, i.e., if everyone lives up to their press releases and our best hopes. Under that hypothesis, I think that 14 / 12 / ~2 to Morgan, Moriah, and Brianna is not enough to recognize their talent and reward their effort. All three are amazing athletes, and IF their effort and commitment match their talents, they will earn more minutes and the team will need more minutes from them. Also, Kiah has enormous potential, and IF she makes use of it, she will get just as many minutes as Stef at the center position. It is possible that she could earn the majority of minutes there.

In the end, effort and commitment will be the determinant of minutes, not raw talent. Anyone with great talent who offers only mediocre commitment will spend a lot of time on the bench.

 

[Vowelguy]

Under that hypothesis, I think that 14 / 12 / ~2 to Morgan, Moriah, and Brianna is not enough to recognize their talent and reward their effort.

Ok, so where do those minutes come from?

It's not an absolute game; it's all relative. If someone gets more; someone else has to get less.

 

[doggydaddy]

Ok, so where do those minutes come from?

It's not an absolute game; it's all relative. If someone gets more; someone else has to get less.

It is ALL guess work. I can see Harley down a few more and Jefferson higher if she is as good as she appears to be.

You sure don't think much of Banks.

Geno has 10 very good players to work with I don't think even he knows how he will use them.

 

[easttexastrash]

Who will Tuck be subbing for the most? I see her at the 4 but I could be wrong. I think Stewart will break the no-freshman-starter rule and will be the starter at the 4 position.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I like vowel's minute analysis. it's very good as far as I can tell, but of course injuries can change things. Just nagging injuries can affect things -- we don't have to imagine ACL injuries or anything. The 2 issues I see are poor Caroline's minutes (too low) and Bria's minutes (too high). The second year after the injury should be better than the first, so she may deserve more minutes, despite her play last year, when she appeared afraid to shoot and could not play tough defense. Caroline was ranked 10th in Hoopgurlz coming out of HS and was actually the highest ranked guard. If she could be the guard she was before her injury, it would be tough to limit her to 15 minutes while Bria is playing 36. Bria played so many minutes last year because Geno had a need for guards (he didn't trust his posts) and a need for scoring. That shouldn't be the case this year, so I expect her minutes to drop.

 

[msf22b]

I'm with Doggy's last quote: Geno comes home from a much more arduous olympics than planned and is faced with a slew of outstanding players, perhaps even more than he can reasonably utilize.

Sure as Joe pointed out, there is sure to be a disappointment or two, an injury or so. But if not; if the Frosh live up to their billing, Steff is fitter and better, Kelly hits some, Ms Banks is a revelation, KLM is herself, Caroline in the second year back regains most of her form, Kiah develops into the 2nd best center in the country and on and on, then it beats me how Geno will distribute time, match-ups, even garbage time.

It'll be sure fun to watch, but I'm glad its not me making those decisions.

 

[Vowelguy]

If she could be the guard she was before her injury,

Unfortunately, after 3 ACLs, I think that ship has sailed.

 

[easttexastrash]

One thing that Geno will have to guard against is playing too many players to the point that game flow is interrupted. I really like a tight 7, 8 max, player rotation in competitive games. I think that players learn what works against an opponent throughout a game and if they are not in enough they lose the feel of the flow of the game.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Unfortunately, after 3 ACLs, I think that ship has sailed.

I hope not. Dev Peters had 2 ACL injuries and she came back. Maybe it's harder for guards.

 

[doggydaddy]

One thing that Geno will have to guard against is playing too many players to the point that game flow is interrupted. I really like a tight 7, 8 max, player rotation in competitive games. I think that players learn what works against an opponent throughout a game and if they are not in enough they lose the feel of the flow of the game.

There are only a few games that he will tighten the rotation and I have no fears, he knows how to rotate players.

 

[easttexastrash]

I think that in the tougher games (Baylor) that Doty and Faris will see very limited action. I think Stewart and Jefferson will have about 25-30, along with Hartley, Dolson, and KML. I'm not sure where the rest of the minutes will go. Probably depends on foul trouble. Stokes was very ineffective against Griner last year do she will need to make major strides to have an impact.

 

[CTGirl15]

I think that in the tougher games (Baylor) that Doty and Faris will see very limited action. I think Stewart and Jefferson will have about 25-30, along with Hartley, Dolson, and KML. I'm not sure where the rest of the minutes will go. Probably depends on foul trouble. Stokes was very ineffective against Griner last year do she will need to make major strides to have an impact.

After her performance in the final 2 minutes against Notre Dame last year in the Final Four Kelly may be the first player I put on the floor in a tight game.

But I do agree Caroline may see limited minutes in the tougher games, unfortunately. Such a shame.

I think Kiah will be much improved next year, but I think guarding Griner will be a team effort rather than just a one-on-one match-up.

 

[Fightin Choke]

After her performance in the final 2 minutes against Notre Dame last year in the Final Four Kelly may be the first player I put on the floor in a tight game.

I completely agree. There is no way Geno doesn't give Kelly serious minutes. She's the epitome of a Huskie. In a tough game I would want her on the floor. Unless she's injured, Geno will not reduce Faris's minutes.

 

[Icebear]

Doggie's points seem to me to be very relevant and spot on. Exercizes in allocating minutes at this point in team development are almost always acts of futility. There are simply too many unknowns. How will players interact in terms of chemistry, who will be physically susceptible to being dinged up with nagging injuries, who will have to contend with bigger injuries, and, especially, with young developing athletes who will have added in some small ways to their abilities and who has made a significant leap in skill and more importantly in mental attitude. Distributing minutes now ignores the impact of these internal team realities and, also, the externals of schedule and our dominance of opponents or their ability to play us tighter.

Some things I expect are:

No one takes any crunch time minutes from Kelly Faris. She is the flat out the get it done kid and best defensive player we put on the court. She practices harder than anyone and is one of the most focused players in the game on any team. Any reduction in Kelly's minutes will only be to keep her fresh come tournament time or deal with unpredictables.

Geno manages the challenge of depth incredibly well. He has had to before and experience is the best teacher.

He will shrink the number of crunch time big game bench to 7 to 8 (maybe 9 for ).

It is going to be a fascinating season.

 

[VAUConnFan]

I hope not. Dev Peters had 2 ACL injuries and she came back. Maybe it's harder for guards.

Ms Peters had 2 ACL injuries and three surgeries. My belief is that recovery from these injuries is a function of the extent of the injuries, the skill of the surgeons, and the individuals themselves. Where it is tough for guards, and shooters in general, is the fact that shooting is heavily dependent upon strong legs.

 

[RPM101370]

Compared to the challenge Geno faces this summer this should be child's play. It's one thing to try to figure out how to find enough minutes for Faris, Doty, Jefferson, Stewart, Stokes, etc. and who to sit in their place. Another challenge entirely when the names involved are Bird, Catchings, Parker, Taurasi, Charles, Fowles, Augustus, etc. Poor poor Geno.

 

[msf22b]

Geno manages the challenge of depth incredibly well. He has had to before and experience is the best teacher.

Ice, I'm not taking issue, I'm a relative newbie, but in the last 6 or 7 seasons, I remember mostly thin rosters and a limited
rotation. Can you give eamples of where Geno faced this potential issue previously?

 

[Icebear]

2000, 2001 is a quick example.

In addition in some years he has had depth and not done it "as well" but experience cuts both ways and is always a teacher if one is ready to learn the lesons available.

 

[HuskyNan]

I think 2000-01 is the season the pundits declared UConn could field two Top 10 teams.

Svet Abrosimva
Ashley Battle
Sue Bird
Swin Cash
Maria Conlon
Marci Czel
Kennitra Johnson
Asjha Jones
Shea Ralph
Christine Rigby
Kelly Schumacher
Diana Taurasi
Morgan Valley
Tamika Williams

 

[Icebear]

I think 2000-01 is the season the pundits declared UConn could field two Top 10 teams.

Svet Abrosimva
Ashley Battle
Sue Bird
Swin Cash
Maria Conlon
Marci Czel
Kennitra Johnson
Asjha Jones
Shea Ralph
Christine Rigby
Kelly Schumacher
Diana Taurasi
Morgan Valley
Tamika Williams

Yes, it was.

 

[EricLA]

Good points on Faris. I totally agree. Her total minutes may be down this year, but she will be on the court when it counts. And Good points on the minutes and how they will be spread. One thing that I know we've said when UCONN is recruiting kids, but goes to their expectations when they come to UCONN is the following...

you don't come to UCONN to be a superstar in your own right or doing it your own way. You may END UP a superstar because you are that good, but no one comes here expecting to start right out the gate and get 30+ minutes per game from day 1. The team concept is constantly talked about and echoed by the coaches, players, and everyone involved in the program. So I feel it's less about keeping players "happy", but more about keeping the "team" happy.

Second, when was the last time a starter actually transferred because they were unhappy with playing time or their role on the team? It just doesn't happen at UCONN. Michala left for some of those reasons, but she didn't even play a significant role off the bench. Samarie's transfer had everything to do with personal issues she was dealing with and wanting to be closer to loved ones.

My point is, Geno generally recruits fantastic team players who care more about the W, BET championships, and NC's than starting or getting PT.

Finally, assuming starters of Caroline, Bria, Kelly, KML and Stef, where do you think a team of Moriah, Brianna, Morgan, Bree and Kiah would be ranked? Yes I know you still need kids off the bench - but where would that 2nd core group be ranked? a ton of young talent as they are all freshmen or sophomores, but lordy that's a world of talent coming off the bench.

 

[wire chief]

Speaking of two top ten squads on the same team, I'm reminded of an approach, I believe at Arizona State maybe 2 years ago, where a whole bench came in at once.
With our depth is there any chance Geno would try that out?

 

[alexrgct]

Speaking of two top ten squads on the same team, I'm reminded of an approach, I believe at Arizona State maybe 2 years ago, where a whole bench came in at once.
With our depth is there any chance Geno would try that out?

He did it on occasion when the 2000-01 team was at full strength. More of a gimmick in blowouts than a strategic move though.