Hate to say it, but IF MSU beats Indiana and goes 1-1 vs Michigan they are in, even with a first-round loss in the B10T or if they lose to Indiana, 1-1 vs Michigan and 1-1 in the B10, also in. They'd be 15-12 or 15-13, which is not good at all, but that would include THREE top 5 wins, all of which are very recent. This team reminds me of that UConn team about a decade ago that beat #1, #3, and #8 and lost to #5 Kentucky by 3 and went 17-14 but, of course, MSU being MSU can get away with such a record if they beat Michigan. UConn didn't have that luxury of being MSU or Duke.
If Duke wins out and goes 1-1 in the ACCT, sucks to say, but they are in at 14-10, at least 90% so. It sucks because other than beating Virginia they haven't done a heck of a lot but it is Duke and beating UNC and Clemson is... enough....for Duke. If they finish 15-10 with a good second-round win in the ACCT they are 100% in.
Just be happy that at least Kentucky is not in.