Michigan Goes down! | Page 5 | The Boneyard
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Michigan Goes down!

Id ignore kenpom,, hes still using last years data. In the world of NIL and transfers that doesnt make sense. Torvik seems more accurate and he has us at 4.
 
Drame said:
Id ignore kenpom,, hes still using last years data. In the world of NIL and transfers that doesnt make sense. Torvik seems more accurate and he has us at 4.
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at this point, KP has barely any preseason (and previous season) data involved. Within a week or so, it should be completely out of the system.

The delta between KP and Torvik has to do with how torvik more aggressively downplays garbage time than KP...where we have not run away with things (or struggled, depending on your perspective). So for instance in the game yesterday, torvik gives us much more credit for a beatdown (since the game was out of hand) than KP (who only sees a 12 point victory)
 
uh-no said:
this would only make sense if UM has won anything...which they haven't.

There ain't no banner for "KP #1, Jan 11"
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Exactly! What matters is who is wins the last game of the year. And it matters exactly zero what one’s Kpom, RPI, NET or any other model projects. What matters is who has the most points.
 
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Drame said:
Id ignore kenpom,, hes still using last years data. In the world of NIL and transfers that doesnt make sense. Torvik seems more accurate and he has us at 4.
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You have a statement from him proving that? Teams are fully connected at 10 games.
 
caw said:
Most of it was because of sites like Kenpom where people were stupidly using that site to compare across seasons which it’s just not meant to do.
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Ranked 3rd in 2023 and 9th in 2026. Forget about the rating itself, the ranking against the field does say something. You just don't like anything that isn't rainbows and unicorn farts. No one has ever claimed that the comparison, now, predicts anything about where they end up. It is simply an interesting data point about where the two teams stand at the midpoint. Some people can handle it.
 
freescooter said:
It’s a long season. And sometimes teams lose a bit of focus. The 2024 UConn team that was so dominant in the tournament lost 3 regular season game. Kansas, Creighton who blew them out of the building and inexplicably Seton Hall who also beat them pretty soundly.

I don’t know how good Michigan will or won’t be the rest of the season and in the tournament but losing a game in early January isn’t a sign of anything other than it is college basketball.
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Kansas beat us with 3 guys injured and it was a very close game. Seton Hall DC was still working his way back and went down again with the injury in that game. Crayton is the only team that legit beat us and it was just one of those weird games that happen in cbb where the other team just hits everything. That Uconn team if healthy couldve concievably lost just one game. Undefeated doesnt mean best. UNLV 90 considered by many the best team of the last 40 years lost 5 times.
 
Drame said:
Id ignore kenpom,, hes still using last years data. In the world of NIL and transfers that doesnt make sense. Torvik seems more accurate and he has us at 4.
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KenPom had us ranked higher in the preseason than now, so more preseason data would help us at this point.
 
I quick google search suggest Michigan should go down more often. And when I say quick I'm talking about Michiganders.
 
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freescooter said:
Which is utterly meaningless at this point in the season. Do you know what they call a guy who wins an Olympic gold medal with the slowest time in years his event? An Olympic Champion. Another way to look at it, who had the top NET rating going into the 2023 NCAA Tournament? UConn was 8th. Would you trade some computer generated ranking with any of the 7 teams rated higher?
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Scooter u on fire! Good posts, love the Olympic one.
 
I just find it funny that the old adage is how no one cares about the college basketball regular season and yet it is the most metrics-driven regular season in all of sports.
 
auror said:
KenPom had us ranked higher in the preseason than now, so more preseason data would help us at this point.
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Why do we or anybody else want so much data from LAST year. Every team is so different year to year in this new era. We've gone down because we havent beaten the predictives. In torivik we were at 2 most of the year and are now at 4. Seems more accurate. Ken Pom is less about who is playing the best right now. Its more of a program rating.
 
UC0NN said:
Michigan is a load offensively, I get that.

Michigan plays hard defensively. But these teams are getting a lot of clean looks against them, Maryland PS WISC. I would imagine we would get clean looks all day and night from what Ive seen.
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You don’t have to imagine. Not one out of conference team has been able to stop our system. Florida barely beat us last year and we had a much inferior team. And Florida was great defensively. We may have an off night, but I have not seen one team that can handle us for 40 minutes
 
Iluvsuebird said:
You don’t have to imagine. Not one out of conference team has been able to stop our system. Florida barely beat us last year and we had a much inferior team. And Florida was great defensively. We may have an off night, but I have not seen one team that can handle us for 40 minutes
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DOOMED!!!
 
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Drame said:
Why do we or anybody else want so much data from LAST year. Every team is so different year to year in this new era. We've gone down because we havent beaten the predictives. In torivik we were at 2 most of the year and are now at 4. Seems more accurate. Ken Pom is less about who is playing the best right now. Its more of a program rating.
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Nobody said we wanted it. I was just cheekily suggesting it would help us.

The models keep a little in because it improves the predictiveness. But just a dash at this point.
 
The two most dominant teams in the last 40 years both didnt win the championship. UNLV 91 and Duke 99. UNLV 90 was a great team that won a ring, but not all time dominant.
 
UC0NN said:
The two most dominant teams in the last 40 years both didnt win the championship. UNLV 91 and Duke 99. UNLV 90 was a great team that won a ring, but not all time dominant.
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I was a bit young during the 99 championship year but how “dominant” were the 98-99 blue devils? Yes they went unbeaten in the ACC but they lost once to #15 Cincinnati while UConn lost twice in regular season to #15 Miami and #16 Syracuse. I know Duke was a big favorite in the title game but it always sounds like UConn was massively underrated which is insane considering their record in 99.
 
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UConnTrumbull said:
I was a bit young during the 99 championship year but how “dominant” were the 98-99 blue devils? Yes they went unbeaten in the ACC but they lost once to #15 Cincinnati while UConn lost twice in regular season to #15 Miami and #16 Syracuse. I know Duke was a big favorite in the title game but it always sounds like UConn was massively underrated which is insane considering their record in 99.
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Duke 99 was dominating teams left and right, they were favored by I think 9.5.

Uconn 99 is one of the best teams in the last 30 years. Less blowout wins than Duke, obviously.

You just had 2 truly great teams in the same year.
 
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