Miami Nerd Preview Player Deep Dive

[Palatine]

Laranaga is a good coach, so I’m sure he’s got some looks planned to bring help. The Drake post guy went 9/14 for 20 points (averages 9 PPG) and took whatever he wanted in the paint, so my guess is Laranaga realizes Omier is probably going to struggle to stop or slow down Sanogo.

That being said, if Sanogo passes as well as he did against Gonzaga, Laranaga may have to live with Omier one on one against Sanogo.

Drake center played 33 minutes versus Miami.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

They do have 3 extra days to prep. Gonzaga was atrocious on rotations when they doubled.

True, though if they cut Jackson to the basket in the dunker spot and keep everyone else on the perimeter, not sure how you rotate on that one effectively without leaving a great perimeter look.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Drake center played 33 minutes versus Miami.

Yep. I’m not sure I’m catching your point on this one.

 

[tzznandrew]

They do have 3 extra days to prep. Gonzaga was atrocious on rotations when they doubled.

But...um...Miami's defense ain't world beaters, and ranked a full point per possession worse than Gonzaga. Watching their games...I'm not sure I'm sure they're going to suddenly be fantastic in their rotations.

 

[auror]

But...um...Miami's defense ain't world beaters, and ranked a full point per possession worse than Gonzaga. Watching their games...I'm not sure I'm sure they're going to suddenly be fantastic in their rotations.

Unlikely to become world beaters, you are correct, but they'll be more locked in and crisp than usual, for sure. But to undermine my own argument, even just in their tournament games (starting March 8th), they're only 81st in defense. (In that span, we're #1 offense and they're #2... but we're #18 on defense).

I have a feeling their defensive effort and scheme will be better than usual, but a lot of their defensive problems are personnel. They only start 1 guy heavier than 195 and nobody taller than 6'7". Pack is easy to shoot over and they don't have much rim protection (and zero when Omier is out).

 

[caw]

Said it before they avoid fouls like the plague the first 30 minutes of each game in the tournament so far. Some teams don’t foul because they play good defense Miami doesn’t foul because they don’t challenge shots much. They gave up a ton of layups to Texas but do try to force people to midrange with their quickness. They just aren’t always good at doing it. They do tend to ball watch to play passing lanes and dig on drives/post ups (or did in past games). They turn it up in the last ten minutes and get much more handsy.

They will face some interesting challenges as I am nearly 100% positive they have never faced a team that runs so much different off ball stuff. While UConn may not have faced such a good one-on-one team who can find the open man if you help/double. They play a very good brand of street ball on offense.

Larranaga has been quoted as saying he doesn’t want his guys in foul trouble as he felt that’s what cost them last year.

 

[TheChamps990411]

I am really trying to figure out how they guard our bigs. I don’t see Omier handling Sanogo or Clingan alone. In another thread someone said Miller on Sanogo, who would get eaten alive and Omier would have to guard Karaban, who would drag their primary rebounder outside. They can’t do that. That would be a disaster.

They have good guards, I get that. But no depth while we can run 5-6 guys at them on defense. If we are running off the ball like we have been, our guys will get clean looks and their guys will eventually be gassed.

I think rebounding is going to be huge here. I know Omier and Miller are good on the boards, but it still seems to strongly favor UConn given how well Sanogo, Clingan, Jackson, Karaban and even Newton rebound.

Anything can happen in March/April but Uconn is bigger, deeper and just as athletic. Miami has no real discernable advantage that i can think of. I dont know how Miami wins this game unless we go cold offensively from 3, all 3 of their perimeter players go off for 20+ each and the refs pull a screw job on us where they shoot 30+ at the line and we are under 15. I think this is a good game for the first half but by the 10 min mark in the second half i think we start pulling away.

 

[Milo65]

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Anything can happen in March/April but Uconn is bigger, deeper and just as athletic. Miami has no real discernable advantage that i can think of. I dont know how Miami wins this game unless we go cold offensively from 3, all 3 of their perimeter players go off for 20+ each and the refs pull a screw job on us where they shoot 30+ at the line and we are under 15. I think this is a good game for the first half but by the 10 min mark in the second half i think we start pulling away.

 

[housekeys]

Is it fair to say that a tightly-called game (assuming even both ways and no Jeff Anderson shenanigans) favors us because of our depth and their reliance on their starters, especially Omier?

I think Miami, at some point will, press UConn (see Arkansas and Gonzaga second half, OK State etc). Full court or 3/4, not sure. They have the guards to do it and UConn has been inconsistent handling the press. In that situation, there will be bumps, swipes, grabs etc that only a tightly officiated game can neutralize. UConn must play their game and at a controlled tempo, not get sped up.

 

[TheChamps990411]

I think Miami, at some point will, press UConn (see Arkansas and Gonzaga second half, OK State etc). Full court or 3/4, not sure. They have the guards to do it and UConn has been inconsistent handling the press. In that situation, there will be bumps, swipes, grabs etc that only a tightly officiated game can neutralize. UConn must play their game and at a controlled tempo, not get sped up.

At some point but theres risk to that. If you start pressing and speeds up the game and suddenly youre in a track meet with little depth at guard and you could find yourself in big trouble late game when shots arent falling because your legs have become rubber.

 

[ucp990411]

What about this for an analysis: if we play the same way we did last weekend, we will win by 20. The way we played, we would be most national teams and some NBA teams on a given night. I want to see Miami's big at 6'7" dominate the game over Sanogo/Clingan/Karaban. If he does, God bless him. I just dont see it. And their guards? Not one of them can shoot like Hawkins. He literally runs like 'Hays' and hits like hits like 'Mays'. Stop it. Just stop it. This is over.

Comments like we could beat an NBA team if we play like we played last weekend are fodder for other message boards to say how stupid UConn fans are

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Some teams don’t foul because they play good defense Miami doesn’t foul because they don’t challenge shots much.

Having now watched all of their tournament games, this is very true.

 

[Classof87]

I think Miami, at some point will, press UConn (see Arkansas and Gonzaga second half, OK State etc). Full court or 3/4, not sure. They have the guards to do it and UConn has been inconsistent handling the press. In that situation, there will be bumps, swipes, grabs etc that only a tightly officiated game can neutralize. UConn must play their game and at a controlled tempo, not get sped up.

I’m guessing DH will be prepping them in case Miami presses. We’ve been overall successful at breaking pressure so far this tournament. Not saying we’ve been perfect, but overall, we’ve not been devastated by anyone‘s pressure.

 

[housekeys]

At some point but theres risk to that. If you start pressing and speeds up the game and suddenly youre in a track meet with little depth at guard and you could find yourself in big trouble late game when shots arent falling because your legs have become rubber.

Absolutely, I agree. I did not say they would be successful

 

[UCLJ0211]

What about this for an analysis: if we play the same way we did last weekend, we will win by 20. The way we played, we would be most national teams and some NBA teams on a given night. I want to see Miami's big at 6'7" dominate the game over Sanogo/Clingan/Karaban. If he does, God bless him. I just dont see it. And their guards? Not one of them can shoot like Hawkins. He literally runs like 'Hays' and hits like hits like 'Mays'. Stop it. Just stop it. This is over.

Love the confidence but even the worst NBA team would do to us what we did to Gonzaga.

 

[RyanFoul]

What about this for an analysis: if we play the same way we did last weekend, we will win by 20. The way we played, we would be most national teams and some NBA teams on a given night. I want to see Miami's big at 6'7" dominate the game over Sanogo/Clingan/Karaban. If he does, God bless him. I just dont see it. And their guards? Not one of them can shoot like Hawkins. He literally runs like 'Hays' and hits like hits like 'Mays'. Stop it. Just stop it. This is over.

OMFG. Facepalm.

You think the team that couldn't beat Marquette three weeks ago can beat an NBA team.

SMDH.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Oh Dear Lord.


Why?

Frickin' lawyers. Its always the frickin' lawyers.

Hey. My analysis wasn’t nearly as unhinged as this. Maybe it’s just some lawyers.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Hey. My analysis wasn’t nearly as unhinged as this. Maybe it’s just some lawyers.

My guess is Barrister is neither a lawyer (Barrister in England) nor a UConn fan.

 

[auror]

Miami is the free team on Evan Miya right now. The Key Metrics Report... is a disaster for them. Lmao.

• We've only given up >=14 assists in 5/37 games.
• We've only been < 25.7 oreb% in 6/37 games.
• We allow the 12th lowest opp 3-point attempt rate out of 363 teams.
• We allow our opponents to only average 41.6% assist rate against us (17th/363).

This is computer generated keys for them to succeed in general over the season, not specific to our matchup. But literally every key for them is one of our absolute strengths. Big yikes for them.

But we're still doomed.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Miami is the free team on Evan Miya right now. The Key Metrics Report... is a disaster for them. Lmao.

• We've only given up >=14 assists in 5/37 games.
• We've only been < 25.7 oreb% in 6/37 games.
• We allow the 12th lowest opp 3-point attempt rate out of 363 teams.
• We allow our opponents to only average 41.6% assist rate against us (17th/363).

This is computer generated keys for them to succeed in general over the season, not specific to our matchup. But literally every key for them is one of our absolute strengths. Big yikes for them.

But we're still doomed.

 

[caw]

Miami is the free team on Evan Miya right now. The Key Metrics Report... is a disaster for them. Lmao.

• We've only given up >=14 assists in 5/37 games.
• We've only been < 25.7 oreb% in 6/37 games.
• We allow the 12th lowest opp 3-point attempt rate out of 363 teams.
• We allow our opponents to only average 41.6% assist rate against us (17th/363).

This is computer generated keys for them to succeed in general over the season, not specific to our matchup. But literally every key for them is one of our absolute strengths. Big yikes for them.

But we're still doomed.

If it’s about rebounding it’s about Omier. He gets nearly a third of all their rebounds. Split at 30% of their defensive rebounds and 40% of their offensive rebounds. Here ally is a fantastic rebounder because he is quick to the ball and gets up. He is also strong enough to rip the ball away if the other team doesn’t have a firm grip on it. That said, he can go over the back and reach at times. As a rebounder he’s kind of like a center version of Jackson. Their other guys do box but not nearly as good as they should, usually. I do expect their focus to be better this game.

They usually get assists two ways both similar, one off the drive and pass (kick or dump off), or to the roll man on their high pick and roll. UConn will need to defend their man with little doubling/help. Also a concern is their quick outlet to attack the rim. Where UConn mixes transition threes in, Miami is almost all attack on the hoop on the break from what I’ve seen, no stats on that.

 

[ucp990411]

Love the confidence but even the worst NBA team would do to us what we did to Gonzaga.

It would much more of a blowout

 

[WhereistheDove?]

What about this for an analysis: if we play the same way we did last weekend, we will win by 20. The way we played, we would be most national teams and some NBA teams on a given night.

Uhhh, no. The end of the bench players on the worst NBA team would spank UConn. Any G League team beats UConn as well. The difference between a great college team and a team of grown men that were the best of the best in college and have lived and breathed basketball for many years after college is massive.

 

[CL82]

Starters

Isaiah Wong, 4th year, 6'4" 184 lbs, Combo guard - ACC Player of the Year. Slithery guard with a pretty big bag. A majority of his shots come off the dribble. Has the highest assist rate on the team, but it's not especially high (much less than both Jackson and Newton's). On the other hand, his turnover rate is impressively low for a playmaking guard. Draws a lot of fouls. 38% 3pt shooter. More mid-range heavy than most players these days, where he shoots an okay percent. Not elite at the rim. Gets a decent number of steals. Rates out as 2nd best defender by RAPM, but lower by BPR.
*Impact comparable to - Ryan Nembhard.

Nijel Pack, 3rd year, 6'0" 184 lbs, Combo guard, 2 years at Kansas St - Last year was first team All-Big 12. Earlier in his career was a PG, but now only adds complementary playmaking. More of a 6'0" shooting guard at Miami. Does not add much on the boards. Elite shooter over his career (42% from 3 on 570 attempts, >40% for 3 straight years). Big gravity. Does not get to the line at all. Just okay in the midrange and at at the rim. Does not add much defensively and struggles to contain penetration.
*Impact comparable to - Adam Kunkel.

Wooga Poplar, 2nd year, 6'5" 185 lbs, Wing guard -Clear 5th best player by all metrics. One of 2 sophs (no freshmen) in rotation. Long, above-the-rim athlete. Gets some steals, but defensive tools don't translate to strong advanced defensive metrics. 39% from 3 on modest number of attempts (steamy 45% in conference play), never takes 3 off a dribble. Decent passer and takes decent care of the ball. Very seldom draws fouls. Shooting numbers are pretty good from all 3 levels.
*Impact comparable to - Bouncy, thinner David Joplin.

Jordan Miller, 5th year, 6'7" 195 lbs, Wing guard, 3 years at George Mason - Top offensive player on the team by BPR, RAPM, and PRPG!. Extremely efficient. Lefty. Improved shooter who shot 36% for the season and 38% in conference play, but 2nd least aggressive 3pt shooter among starters. Aggressive straight line slasher who gets to the rim at a high rate and is a great finisher at the rim when he gets there. But is more often setup than shooting off the dribble. Good vision and extremely turnover resistant. Solid and reliable defender. Okay offensive rebounder, but subpar defensively.
*Impact comparable to - Taller Kam Jones.

Norchad Omier, 3rd year, 6'7" 248 lbs, Big, 2 years at Arkansas St. - Top overall player on Miami by BPR (#24 overall) and RAPM (#53), partially due to being the only real complete player on the roster. 5th best rebounder in the country by total reb%, great on both backboards. 17 rebounds against Indiana. Vey good finishing at the rim and the vast majority of his shots come from there. Struggles from any further out. Draws fouls at a high rate and is an above average FT shooter. Not a zero as a passer, but certainly more of a finisher. 4.2 fouls per 40 or about 3 fouls per game in his usual 28 minutes.
*Impact comparable to - Shorter, no outside shot, better rebounding Jack Nunge.

Their starting lineup is the 2nd best 5-man lineup in the country with at least 500 possessions according to BPR. It's comparable to Marquette, Creighton, or Xavier's starting lineup by RAPM. It's balanced and efficient. They don't give up too many runs and score a good amount themselves.

The Bench

Bensley Joseph - 2nd year, 6'2" 207 lbs, Combo guard - PSA grad. Decently athletic with good steal and block rates (for his size). Good 3-point shooter and decent volume shooter. Has some playmaking ability, but very turnover prone. *Impact comparable to - Eric Hunter.

Harlond Beverly - 4th year, 6'6" 200 lbs, Combo guard - Only positive bench player by RAPM. Adds a bit of playmaking. A bit of foul drawing. Really turnover prone. Very bad midrange shooter, but is mostly a catch and shoot 3pt or rim player. Forces some turnovers. *Impact comparable to - Desmond Claude.

Anthony Walker - 4th year, 6'9" 215 lbs, Wing forward - Backup big. 11th in RAPM on team. Team has been outscored over the season with him on the court. Straight up negative on offense, can't shoot at all. Can finish at the rim, but requires setup. Very poor foul drawer for a big. Not a good shotblocker for his size. *Impact comparable to - Akok Akok (in games other than against UConn when he was good).

Their 7 best lineups all have Omier in them. The drop-off from Omier to Walker is massive. Joseph and Beverly aren't amazing bench players and our top 4 bench players (Clingan, Diarra, Calcaterra, and Alleyne) all rate out as stronger than their best, but they're serviceable compared to Walker. But that being said, the lineups with Walker + Omier are still better than the X+Miller lineups, showing Omier's value even further.

*Impact measured by RAPM and BPR. Player style or specific stats not taken into account, only overall impact to the team. Did try to matchup similar role players just for ease of comparison.
Short charts courtesy CBBAnalytics. RAPM from Hoop-Explorer. BPR from EvanMiya.com

What’s everyone’s guess as to the defensive matchups for UConn? Is Jackson on Wong or Poplar?

Oh and @barrister…