Metrics (Feb 12) | The Boneyard

Metrics (Feb 12)

aburks41 said:
The committee is going to have no clue what to do with us
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Still plenty of games to play. Limping in to the tournament 2-4 in these last 6 is absolutely on the table. But then we will see how we do in a semi-neutral semi-home set of games in NY
 
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aburks41 said:
The committee is going to have no clue what to do with us
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Have 1 only bad loss right now so if finish no worse than 22-9 probably a 5 seed. Right now guess on the 4 / 5 seed cut line.

The next 5 games will be huge for seeding obviously....all the games are winable and most are losable so buckle up.
 
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Does anyone know if Men's Selection Committee has a top 16 reveal this year? I think last year it was Feb 19.

The Women's top 16 reaveal was a couple of days ago. If we knew that UConn was in their top 16 at the moment that would be very helpful...ha.
 
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Hi-Low said:
Does anyone know if Men's Selection Committee has a top 16 reveal this year?

I know there was one last year and Women's was a couple days ago. If we knew that UConn was top 16 at the moment that would be helpful...ha.
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Next Saturday is the first one for the men
 
Including the Big East tournament, we lose more than 2 the rest of the way, it’s gonna be tough getting any better than a 6, and probably even a line lower at 21/22/23/24-10/11.

We lose 2 the rest of the way, either in the regular season or 1 in the BET, I think a 5 is likely, though we could maybe get a 4 at 25-9/24-9 if the L’s in the BET final/semi, or if we win the BET.

We lose 1 the rest of the way, whenever, I think we’d got a floor of a 4 with a 3 very plausible at 26-8 if that run included a BET crown.

We win out, which we’d all like but who knows if it’s possible, and at 27-7 I think we’re at least a 3 with the metrics to justify a 2 depending on what other teams do.

Has it been an emotional roller coaster of a ride so far? Heck yes. But all of our goals are are still right there, in no small part due to the work we put in in OOC.

The Creighton L left a bad taste in my mouth, just like everyone, but if Hawk’s foot is 2 inches further back there’s a respectable (40/60?) shot none of these negative vibes exist, and we’re discussing how the team turned a corner after the January swoon and could even fight back to the 1 line of things bounced the right way.
 
navery12 said:
Next Saturday is the first one for the men
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Thanks...since we have no games before Sat all we can do is root for the other 4 seed-ish teams to lose this week ;)

My guess is we're right on that 4 / 5 seed cut line at the moment.
 
Hi-Low said:
Does anyone know if Men's Selection Committee has a top 16 reveal this year? I think last year it was Feb 19.

The Women's top 16 reaveal was a couple of days ago. If we knew that UConn was in their top 16 at the moment that would be very helpful...ha.
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If the men's committee values NET as much as women's did, I think we're easily in the top 16 and likely to stay there barring a collapse. I'd guess 4 seed in the East on the first reveal, so around 13 overall.
 
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In my mind, I am breaking down the rest of the season into 3 segments:

1- the six remaining regular season games I think we go 4-2, or 5-1 (wouldn't be super surprised if we even get on the roll and take them all). This gets the team's confidence in a good place especially with a pro-UConn crowd looming...

2- BE tourney: We avoid a Wednesday game and win 2 games to get to the Final. Coin toss there.

3- Big Dance: we break through and get to the second weekend. From there, who knows where the chips fall?

All would be "OK" in UConn nation and all eyes would be on the off season's comings and goings.
 
Losing at Creighton by 3 or whatever is a good loss. I see us winning out and going into the BET, where there are no away games, on a role.
 
aburks41 said:
The committee is going to have no clue what to do with us
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It’s basically two different seasons. Second half has been horrible.

You can make the argument that thanks to UCONN’s early season wins, the Big East was able to get propped up by beating UCONN.
 
If we don’t start beating NCAA teams, our metrics will match our perception that we can't and the committee won't have to worry. We'll be a 6-8 seed not playing in the East Regional bracket. Not that would make a difference by then.
 
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Grow up. The committee doesn't look at one game. We have 2 quality league wins, 7 losses and 2 of those are

upsets. If the goal is MSG, or a high enough seed to make the last 16 without having to play a top 10 team, then this isn't getting it done.

A few more losses will guarantee we have to play a top ten team in round 2.
 
caw said:
Us? More like 99% of the teams. Purdue is the closest to a lock as a one seed and they just lost their second in three. If anyone says they have a clue who will win it this year, they are either legitimately psychic or on heavy drugs.
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This right here. ALL teams, from Purdue, to Houston, to us, have questions and have lost games their fans think they probably shouldn’t have lost. With how much parity is in the college game today, it isn’t that surprising. I’d bet seeded 1-2-3 seeds these days on average have more losses than their counterparts did 20-25 years ago.

I’m not trying to diminish our clear problems and concerns, but we also need to realize every fan base and team in the country is literally going through similar things. Our season has not been a unique string of disasters. In general, we’re no better or worse off than anyone else in that regard.

All we know is on our best day we looked better than all of ‘em. And the rest of this season has to be about refinding that form.
 
caw said:
Us? More like 99% of the teams. Purdue is the closest to a lock as a one seed and they just lost their second in three. If anyone says they have a clue who will win it this year, they are either legitimately psychic or on heavy drugs.
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My point was that I think we have the biggest delta between analytics and actual play/win loss record.

Kenpom and the NET are pretty much spot on for a lot of teams except for us. We’ve lost 7 games, we’re not the 6th best team in the country right now. Those early season blowouts are absolutely carrying us on the analytics front
 
aburks41 said:
My point was that I think we have the biggest delta between analytics and actual play/win loss record.

Kenpom and the NET are pretty much spot on for a lot of teams except for us. We’ve lost 7 games, we’re not the 6th best team in the country right now. Those early season blowouts are absolutely carrying us on the analytics front
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I know, just pointing out the variance is going to be there for most teams this year.

Also, I think Tennessee may have wider variance. It's close. It actually amazes me that Tennessee is still ranked in the top ten and likely will be around 10 in this coming poll. I mean if UConn is hanging on to the top 25 barely.


UCONN 19-7 (8-6 in Q1/Q2 [2-5 - A, 3-0 N, 3-1 H])
NET: 9
BPI: 7
KenPom: 6
Sagarin: 7
SOS: 25 (KenPom)
Best wins (Bama - N, ISU - N, UF - A, OSU - H, Marquette - H, Creighton - H)
Worst loss: SJU - H - 99 in NET

Tennessee: 19-6 (8-6 in Q1/Q2 [2-3 A, 3-1 N, 3-2 H])
NET: 3
BPI: 2
Kenpom:4
Sagarin: 5
SOS: 54 (Kenpom)
Best wins (Kansas - N, Maryland - N, Mississippi St - A, Texas - H)
Worst loss (@ Vandy - 93 in NET)
 
aburks41 said:
My point was that I think we have the biggest delta between analytics and actual play/win loss record.

Kenpom and the NET are pretty much spot on for a lot of teams except for us. We’ve lost 7 games, we’re not the 6th best team in the country right now. Those early season blowouts are absolutely carrying us on the analytics front
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We're not the 6th best team in the country right now but we are a Top 15 one with major upside. At the beginning of the season are you signing up for that in mid February? Because I sure am.
 
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aburks41 said:
My point was that I think we have the biggest delta between analytics and actual play/win loss record.

Kenpom and the NET are pretty much spot on for a lot of teams except for us. We’ve lost 7 games, we’re not the 6th best team in the country right now. Those early season blowouts are absolutely carrying us on the analytics front
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They’re also carrying the conference
 
Brochacho said:
Should Win: Seton Hall, DePaul, @St. John's
Questionable: Providence
Don't Feel Good: @Villanova

Hoping we finish 4-1. Ideally play for the BET Championship as well.
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Well advancing to the BE final or getting to the round if 32 is progress. So let’s hope it’s both.
 
UConnSwag11 said:
They’re also carrying the conference
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Kind of an underrated consideration when you flip this around.

If Creighton and Xavier had carried their weight in the OOC, they'd be top 5-10, our home win wouldn't merely be good, but a signature marquee win, and narrowly losing the other games wouldn't be a catastrophe.
 
Rocktheworld said:
Still plenty of games to play. Limping in to the tournament 2-4 in these last 6 is absolutely on the table. But then we will see how we do in a semi-neutral semi-home set of games in NY
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We aren't losing again before the Big East tournament. Good chance of running the table there too. Believe it.
 
Matt1010 said:
We're not the 6th best team in the country right now but we are a Top 15 one with major upside. At the beginning of the season are you signing up for that in mid February? Because I sure am.
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When we are playing at our best, which we've seen for 15/26 games, we're easily the most dominant team in the country. But which version of our team will the committee favor? The metrics and recent eye test tell two very different stories. I think they would lean towards the metrics, but are we really deserving of a 2/3 seed right now? I think a 4 would be fair at the moment. But we certainly are in the drivers seat to get back up to the 2/3 line if we win the games in front of us
 
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