Memphis proposing lucrative offer to join Big 12, but it lacks support from conference leadership: Sources | Page 8 | The Boneyard

Memphis proposing lucrative offer to join Big 12, but it lacks support from conference leadership: Sources

UNC and UVA are likely targets for both the B1G and SEC. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that the B1G gets those two schools, but I think it's a forgone conclusion that either the B1G or the SEC will get those schools.

Similarly, I don't see Florida State as a lock to the SEC. There is a very real possibility Florida State ends up in the B1G. Florida State and Miami could be easy travel partners in the B1G for the Olympic sports. Like UVA and UNC, I do see FSU going to either the B1G or the SEC.

Clemson is a harder sell to go to the B1G. I see the SEC as the lifeline for Clemson.

Miami's only lifeline is the B1G.

Of course, Notre Dame is a B1G lock if Notre Dame ever wanted to join, but I don't see them joining anytime soon - they are sitting pretty with the structural deal of the CFP right now.

Outside looking in..........

Stanford - could go B1G if Notre Dame insisted Stanford join with them or the B1G wants more of a Pacific presence.
Cal - harder to see in the B1G then Stanford, but a reasonable add with Stanford if the B1G wanted to have a more Pacific presence.
Georgia Tech - only in play if the B1G wants a footprint in Atlanta/Georgia.
Duke - only in play if partnered with UNC to either the B1G or SEC.

I just don't see anyone else standing a snowball's chance. The only names worth mentioning from the Big 12 would be Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State, but I just don't see it happening.

If both the B1G and SEC end up at 20 schools, here is my prediction:

B1G - #19 Miami, #20 Florida State
SEC - #17 UNC, #18 Duke, #19 UVA, #20 Clemson
 
Jetskies said:
i know i keep saying this, apologies, but - i really am absolutely rotting at the fact that rutgers.... rutgers - is safe in the big 10. They do not deserve the security they have or the brand power they are able to claim as their own, by wearing that logo on their field and jerseys. if we don't deserve it, with our overall school profile and athletic accomplishment, they DEF don't deserve it. such a crock.

I know about the nyc stuff and cable box market from ages past. I know the story, don't worry about filling me in. I'm just venting.
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clint eastwood Deserve's got nothing to do with it. GIF
 
freescooter said:
A few years ago there was talk of Texas (and little brother Oklahoma maybe tagging along) going to the PAC, then they were going to the B10. Neither materialized. They ended in the SEC over the objection of A&M apparently. I have to believe that the SEC and the Big 10 have some type of non-aggression pact. And seriously, Georgia Tech to the Big 10 ? They are not just the 2nd team in Georgia. They are a distant #2.
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The Texas to the P12 thing would have happened, but for the Longhorn Network. The Longhorn Network was also one of the reasons that A&M left the Big 12. And they definitely did not want UT in the SEC with them.
Jetskies said:
i know i keep saying this, apologies, but - i really am absolutely rotting at the fact that rutgers.... rutgers - is safe in the big 10. They do not deserve the security they have or the brand power they are able to claim as their own, by wearing that logo on their field and jerseys. if we don't deserve it, with our overall school profile and athletic accomplishment, they DEF don't deserve it. such a crock.

I know about the nyc stuff and cable box market from ages past. I know the story, don't worry about filling me in. I'm just venting.
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Even worse, the most valuable part of Connecticut was shoehorned into the same DMV as Rutgers. The densest, most affluent part of our state is now considered to be part of the Big Ten's footprint.

You could not make up our circumstance if you tried
 
ZooCougar said:
The Big 12 TV ratings are schewed by Deion Sanders. Once he is gone that conference is officially a sea of nothingburgers. But great job nailing down the Lubbock DMA.
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Not true. How about you throw out the high and the low of each of the two conferences and then do the average and come back to us with the math.
 
ZooCougar said:
The Big 12 TV ratings are schewed by Deion Sanders. Once he is gone that conference is officially a sea of nothingburgers. But great job nailing down the Lubbock DMA.
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They'll be able to attract more good coaches when they are one of 64 teams in a Power League. This isn't about Deon Sanders today.

The Big12 has a niche - a collective group of schools that aren't the best, but good enough not to be left behind, and unified. Internal politics are on their side. They also have a rock star commish who is a visionary. The last expansion was a coup for them landing 3 flagships.

The ACC is a group of wannabe defectors with a small fat top and big cruddy bottom, constant unrest and varying agendas. Their issue is that the few schools at the top are really attractive and know it, with a bunch of have beens riding their coat tails. Their commish is reactive and slipping on banana peels.
 
ZooCougar said:
I don’t need to. Sample size of one year is dumb.

One is on the coast. The other is in a cornfield.
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It just happens the cornfields love their college football and the coast likes the Phillies, Commanders & Celtics.

The B10 has a lot of corn.
 
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Rufus said:
UNC and UVA are likely targets for both the B1G and SEC. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that the B1G gets those two schools, but I think it's a forgone conclusion that either the B1G or the SEC will get those schools.

Similarly, I don't see Florida State as a lock to the SEC. There is a very real possibility Florida State ends up in the B1G. Florida State and Miami could be easy travel partners in the B1G for the Olympic sports. Like UVA and UNC, I do see FSU going to either the B1G or the SEC.

Clemson is a harder sell to go to the B1G. I see the SEC as the lifeline for Clemson.

Miami's only lifeline is the B1G.

Of course, Notre Dame is a B1G lock if Notre Dame ever wanted to join, but I don't see them joining anytime soon - they are sitting pretty with the structural deal of the CFP right now.

Outside looking in..........

Stanford - could go B1G if Notre Dame insisted Stanford join with them or the B1G wants more of a Pacific presence.
Cal - harder to see in the B1G then Stanford, but a reasonable add with Stanford if the B1G wanted to have a more Pacific presence.
Georgia Tech - only in play if the B1G wants a footprint in Atlanta/Georgia.
Duke - only in play if partnered with UNC to either the B1G or SEC.

I just don't see anyone else standing a snowball's chance. The only names worth mentioning from the Big 12 would be Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State, but I just don't see it happening.

If both the B1G and SEC end up at 20 schools, here is my prediction:

B1G - #19 Miami, #20 Florida State
SEC - #17 UNC, #18 Duke, #19 UVA, #20 Clemson
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UVa is an absolute mismatch for the SEC culturally & academically. The DNA in Charlottesville would organ reject at the thought of being in the SEC. The B10 stills put emphasis on academic fit. I stayed in the Virginia hotel during the CWS last year - very much a pinkies up crowd. Them comingling with LSU & Ole Miss annually would be like Hillary Clinton dating PitBull. For all the posturing UNC is doing around the SEC, they're not that different. They have a little bit more banjo in their band, but still love their argyle. If they have the choice, they'd both go B10.

Clemson is a top 10 football brand & 17th most watched team last year - they are a commodity. They'd be even higher if they were actually playing good teams for the majority of the year. They won't need a lifeline.

How lucky must you feel if you're Northwestern & Vandy these days? Grandfathered into the country club where you can stink as much as you want and still rake it in.
 
I would think UNC and Virginia end up in the SEC. Heck, they were in a conference with most of the SEC in the Southern Conference. Plus, South Carolina was in the ACC for years before becoming an Independent and then going to the SEC. UNC has played way more football games against SEC schools than they have with Big 10 schools,
 
CTFAN4LIFE said:
Not true. How about you throw out the high and the low of each of the two conferences and then do the average and come back to us with the math.
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Imagine how pitiful the Big 12's ratings would be if they were big enough to have a network.

Now come back to me.
 
CTFAN4LIFE said:
You make no sense.
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It makes complete sense. One of the reasons the ACC makes more money is that they get paid twice. They get the regular media check and the ACC network check. They actually ate important enough to have their own network. The Big 12 does not. If the Big 12 had a network the ratings numbers would be worse.

One season where they got lucky and had a few hundred thousand more viewers doesn’t prove anything.
 
RuffRuff said:
Or UNC is one of the biggest early season storylines with Beli there. As a non college football fan, I’ll be tuning in to see what UNC is all about this season. Science experiments are fun to watch.
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Can't fool me...you are hoping to catch glimpses of his hottie girlfriend...

UNC is making a Deion kind of splash with the coaching hire...but..the school is attempting to plump up football.

“Multiple sources told Inside Carolina the SEC is where the Tar Heels are aiming under the leadership of Roberts and Newmark..."
 
Fishy said:
The Texas to the P12 thing would have happened, but for the Longhorn Network. The Longhorn Network was also one of the reasons that A&M left the Big 12. And they definitely did not want UT in the SEC with them.


Even worse, the most valuable part of Connecticut was shoehorned into the same DMV as Rutgers. The densest, most affluent part of our state is now considered to be part of the Big Ten's footprint.

You could not make up our circumstance if you tried
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All the people saying the Big 12 will survive are not thinking logically. The only 2 schools they had that ESPN wanted to keep were Texas and Oklahoma. They killed 2 birds with one move , Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, and they were able to get rid of the money losing Longhorn network.
When the remaing Big 12 schools come up for bid ESPN doesn't have to bid anything, there isn't anyone they want or need.
 
RuffRuff said:
UVa is an absolute mismatch for the SEC culturally & academically. The DNA in Charlottesville would organ reject at the thought of being in the SEC.
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Vanderbilt needs an academic partner, and Texas is a very good academic school.
 
ZooCougar said:
It makes complete sense. One of the reasons the ACC makes more money is that they get paid twice. They get the regular media check and the ACC network check. They actually ate important enough to have their own network. The Big 12 does not. If the Big 12 had a network the ratings numbers would be worse.

One season where they got lucky and had a few hundred thousand more viewers doesn’t prove anything.
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Or maybe it’s trending?
Stinger92860 said:
Vanderbilt needs an academic partner, and Texas is a very good academic school.
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Is academic partner even a thing?

Texas was not going B10 given geo/culture, and Oklahoma pairing.
 
I don’t get why the Big 12 is not adding Memphis if all the pieces of this story are true. Every athletic program just became a lot less profitable with revenue sharing, and the death rattle of the linear model is on the horizon. Why wouldn’t they take this free money? Either the Big 12 thinks Memphis can’t deliver or is lying.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
I don’t get why the Big 12 is not adding Memphis if all the pieces of this story are true. Every athletic program just became a lot less profitable with revenue sharing, and the death rattle of the linear model is on the horizon. Why wouldn’t they take this free money? Either the Big 12 thinks Memphis can’t deliver or is lying.
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Would you want to be the first power conference to let a low bred into the conference with a buy in? Cheapens their image, makes them feel more exclusive, unites the members.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
I don’t get why the Big 12 is not adding Memphis if all the pieces of this story are true. Every athletic program just became a lot less profitable with revenue sharing, and the death rattle of the linear model is on the horizon. Why wouldn’t they take this free money? Either the Big 12 thinks Memphis can’t deliver or is lying.
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Because they aren’t getting the money. The networks are and it works out to $3M per school even if they did.
 
RuffRuff said:
If wagering a guess based on a lot of info that's already out there, including schools already expressing their interest in parting ways:

B10 (currently at 18, likely max out at 24)
UNC/UVa - B10 locks. ND once/if they fold. These would be automatics - fits are too good.
GATech/Miami - B10 possibilities
Duke - B10 maybe to fill out the 24
Then there are also Cal & Stanford still out there, would seem a really odd long term fit in the ACC but not sure their FB brands are strong enough for the B10.

SEC (currently at 16, likely max out at 18-20)
Clemson/FSU - SEC locks. Some arguing that SEC already has this footprint, but Florida is a massive growing state & hotbed you want to own. SEC has two schools in multiple states (Bama, Miss), and it creates great inter-conference rivalries (check Bama/Auburn for how meaningful those are). Clemson is a top 10-12 football brand, why wouldn't you want them? These a high value/brand programs.

Va Tech/NC St - SEC maybes. Would give them presence in new markets & round out.

B12 (currently 16, likely max out at 18-20)
Pitt/Ville - would pod out nicely with Cinci & WV
NC St/VA Tech - if the SEC doesn't take

Leaves Wake, Cuse, BC and SMU. Not a lot of value there (separating Cal/Stanford out for now). Cuse is in a dead part of the country and loses it's identity not being connected to NYC. Wake is the small baby brother of the triangle and lucky to even be in a P4. BC is on it's Catholic island and seemingly abandoned any desire to be good athletically. Uconn gives the B12 another state flagship and an anchor in the NYC area. Maybe we go over with SMU. We'll be in a pool of leftovers the B12 can pick through alongside the networks.

Best guess conservatively is that ACC loses 4 once GOR is up. FSU & Clemson already have one foot out the door. Once they're gone, the ACC is firmly a second rate football conference. UNC & UVa are foundational universities for the ACC, so if they follow suit to the B10, then it totally destabilizes. UNC has already publicly expressed their interest. You lose easily your top 2 football brands and your 2 original staple flagships, you're officially fractured at the top of the football and political hierarchy that is the ACC. What it will take for ND to fold will be interesting.

The SEC & B10 are not stopping and they have all the power at this point, and the ACC has the goods they want. Take those 4 schools, and anyone left behind is going to be running for their lives & easy pickens.

Best bet for us is that NCSt & Va Tech go to the SEC and leave a couple spots open in the B12. Unlike the last go, Uconn should have higher perceived forward value than BC & Cuse, even though we are valued less today (mainly because of conference affiliation).

Yormark is way smarter than anyone over in the ACC. He's perfectly happy with the second raters that the P2 doesn't want and will brand the heck out of it and differentiate creatively, as he's already shown. Meanwhile the ACC is fractured, reactive, resting on it's laurels and adding oddballs that make no long term sense. As is the B12 has 5 flagships to the ACC's 3 (UVa, UNC and Cal).

We keep talking about the P2 taking over, but there are too many schools out there to fall into 2 conferences, so it's likely to land on P2 +1, with the P2 running the show, and likely breaking away from the NCAA. Have to think an entrepreneurial guy like Yormark is light years ahead in that thought process versus a consensus driven lifelong AD type like Phillips.
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Nah, it's going to be 2 conferences for football and some of their dead weight football schools will be booted out.
 
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