Matchups

[businesslawyer]

FWIW I'd say it will be less likely. That was the last Hurley team that was much much more about defense than offense. We didn't have enough offense to counter NMSU's crazy good shooting night. It's what led to the UConn of the last 4 years.

Good God. You can always lose a game, but Furman is not near the level of that year’s NMSU and we’re much, much better than we were when we played NMSU.

 

[Ripper32]

I'm not really worried about it. The path doesn't get scary until Michigan State, especially if UCLA is banged up. The main problem I see is that Louisville stinks, so it is likely to be Michigan State in the Sweet 16. I think USF has a decent shot of knocking off Louisville.

I agree, Michigan State has enough size and physicality to beat us. It's freaking Izzo. They will deny key spots on the floor and we don't exactly have a host of creative players.

 

[JungleLobo]

They are 51st in the country in 3P attempts and 260th in 3P%, per ESPN. Doesn't seem all that scary to me

2025-26 Men's College Basketball Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

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It’s fur man

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

This team has no P4 journey man named buckets, just fur man

 

[champs99and04]

But as a heavy favorite, you want an opponent who's going to be reliably mediocre, not an opponent who could be either abysmal or great depending on their shooting.

I'd agree with this logic if all attempts were created equal. But the looks they'll be getting against a UConn team that has been one of the best in the country at defending the three are likely to be vastly different than the ones they've been getting in the Southern Conference.

At one time, it was undoubtedly true that the best way for a mid-major to spring an upset in March was to get hot from three. But times have changed a lot - there's no stigma now. If anything, the stigma has flipped. Today's top programs would wince at the thought of adding a Terry Larrier or Daniel Hamilton, guys who would have been considered highly coveted talents in previous eras but are now viewed as liabilities.

And so if the stigma has flipped, so, too, does the calculus. At least in my mind, the most dangerous mid-majors in today's game are the ones with p5 talent that maybe didn't align analytically with the vision of a better program. They might not be able to match your A game, but they can absolutely beat you if you go cold. And, at least in recent times, that's what's led to the major upsets - the big boys going cold.

2023 Princeton only shot 4 of 25 from three in its stunning victory over 15-point favorite Arizona. FDU was just 7-23 in its win over 23.5 point favorite Purdue. Even the aforementioned Foreman team only hit 10 of 28 from deep in its win over Virginia (they were only five point underdogs, so not necessarily as big an upset as it seems).

Sure, there are plenty examples of an underdog shooting over their head and winning, but generally those are defense-first teams that shoot the three at a fairly low volume and may only need a bounce or two to turn a 5 of 17 night into an 8 of 17. The best example of this is probably Saint Peter's in 2022, which shot 9-17 against Kentucky (but only 9-34 against Murray State and Purdue).

By all accounts, Furman isn't that caliber of team. It's 200th in adjusted offense and 181st in adjusted defense. Anything can happen in one game, but I think it would take a borderline miracle for UConn to lose.

 

[caw]

I'd agree with this logic if all attempts were created equal. But the looks they'll be getting against a UConn team that has been one of the best in the country at defending the three are likely to be vastly different than the ones they've been getting in the Southern Conference.

At one time, it was undoubtedly true that the best way for a mid-major to spring an upset in March was to get hot from three. But times have changed a lot - there's no stigma now. If anything, the stigma has flipped. Today's top programs would wince at the thought of adding a Terry Larrier or Daniel Hamilton, guys who would have been considered highly coveted talents in previous eras but are now viewed as liabilities.

And so if the stigma has flipped, so, too, does the calculus. At least in my mind, the most dangerous mid-majors in today's game are the ones with p5 talent that maybe didn't align analytically with the vision of a better program. They might not be able to match your A game, but they can absolutely beat you if you go cold. And, at least in recent times, that's what's led to the major upsets - the big boys going cold.

2023 Princeton only shot 4 of 25 from three in its stunning victory over 15-point favorite Arizona. FDU was just 7-23 in its win over 23.5 point favorite Purdue. Even the aforementioned Foreman team only hit 10 of 28 from deep in its win over Virginia (they were only five point underdogs, so not necessarily as big an upset as it seems).

Sure, there are plenty examples of an underdog shooting over their head and winning, but generally those are defense-first teams that shoot the three at a fairly low volume and may only need a bounce or two to turn a 5 of 17 night into an 8 of 17. The best example of this is probably Saint Peter's in 2022, which shot 9-17 against Kentucky (but only 9-34 against Murray State and Purdue).

By all accounts, Furman isn't that caliber of team. It's 200th in adjusted offense and 181st in adjusted defense. Anything can happen in one game, but I think it would take a borderline miracle for UConn to lose.

Their best win is NET 140 and they were 1-2 against that team this year. For perspective DePaul was the worst NET in the BE at near 100.

They aren’t horrible though. I actually like their center and PG a lot.

 

[JBK]

I'ld be surprised if SJU can defeat both KU and Duke consecutively without Big East refs help. Its not the Big East anymore.

Geez. Huge fan but we cannot get over this St Johns loss. Pitino had a great game plan - they switch on our shooters and we are slow to get open. Very smart.
If you do not think Pitino’s game plan worked let’s wait until we face Michigan state. Izzo is very smart and they are very athletic and tough. Let’s move off of SJU.
They did not cheat as one would think - they are more athletic and played harder than us for that 1 game. We learn and move on. UConn 1st for me - went to the last few ladies championship but like Geno —. I root for our league and hope St. John’s get out of San Diego as well as Villanova

 

[Leebo]

Recent performances don't change how I feel about the tourney. I can't bring myself to root for any of our rivals.

 

[REB1094]

I appreciate the stats and analytics throughout the thread but I think it’s pretty simple

If UConn shows up, they win easily

If UConn sleepwalks and Furman plays the best game of their lives, it could get interesting

Easiest way to guarantee a win is to show up

 

[CTBasketball]

This is what I’ve been saying. Our issue wasn’t necessarily St John’s. We have waaay too may unforced turnovers. We do it against everyone

Our problems are exasperated by St John’s and teams like St John’s. Anyone who presses us will turn us over. Anyone who brings the double on Reed and he doesn’t pass out will turn us over or generate bad shots.

St John’s got away with some grabbing which likely led to less open 3’s. Turnovers were caused by ball pressure.

 

[KingAG]

Our problems are exasperated by St John’s and teams like St John’s. Anyone who presses us will turn us over. Anyone who brings the double on Reed and he doesn’t pass out will turn us over or generate bad shots.

St John’s got away with some grabbing which likely led to less open 3’s. Turnovers were caused by ball pressure.

Yea we turn the ball over anyway, so a team like SJ makes it worse.

I just don’t think it’s a physicality thing. I think it’s we just don’t make good decisions. We have to at least make good decisions. Then I can live with the physical limitations

 

[BFieldHusky]

Yea we turn the ball over anyway, so a team like SJ makes it worse.

I just don’t think it’s a physicality thing. I think it’s we just don’t make good decisions. We have to at least make good decisions. Then I can live with the physical limitations

This. The stat that we have the most unforced turnovers in the Big East is alarming.

 

[Marat]

I was curious and looked back at the turn over stats against the big out of conference games early in the season, and for the most part turn overs were under control:

BYU: 15
Zona: 5
Illinois: 9
Kansas: 10
Florida: 8
Texas: 12

Does seem to be a key for us.

 

[Lafayette]

Our problems are exasperated by St John’s and teams like St John’s. Anyone who presses us will turn us over. Anyone who brings the double on Reed and he doesn’t pass out will turn us over or generate bad shots.

St John’s got away with some grabbing which likely led to less open 3’s. Turnovers were caused by ball pressure.

Would say the ball pressure was on inbounding, not full court press. If we got the ball in and not in the danger zone (Archer reference intentional), they mostly slacked off.

 

[CTBasketball]

Would say the ball pressure was on inbounding, not full court press. If we got the ball in and not in the danger zone (Archer reference intentional), they mostly slacked off.

I will say from my seat (St John’s basket in 2H), I had a clear view of Dylan Darling bear hugging Silas multiple times to deny the inbound pass.

 

[dennismenace]

Now that we know our seed, our first round opponent, and our location, we can look at matchups. One last thing on St. Johns. They are really the type of team you would design to be able to beat this UConn team. Their strengths really play into our weaknesses. They press. They cause live ball turnovers. They are much bigger at the wing position than us. They are a good rebounding team. They have one of the few guys in the country who can match Tarris on both ends. We were able to handle them with ease when we didn't turn the ball over, and limited them to one and done. But we are not a consistent team, especially when it comes to shooting and taking care of the ball.

It appears that Furman is not the kind of team that plays an aggressive style of defense that looks to cause turnovers. If we get to the 2nd Round, the same looks to be true with UCF. UCLA is better at it, but we need to see how healthy they truly are.

St John's is Rick Pitino's design. We have seen his teams before and I recall a horrific beating against us with the same aggressive style. Louisville was 11-5 against us when he was there. The style reminds me of early JC teams. We need stronger front line rebounding and some speed. Big East will not change refereeing just for us. He took complete blame after the shellacking we gave him in Hartford.

 

[jibsey]

Our problems are exasperated by St John’s and teams like St John’s. Anyone who presses us will turn us over. Anyone who brings the double on Reed and he doesn’t pass out will turn us over or generate bad shots.

St John’s got away with some grabbing which likely led to less open 3’s. Turnovers were caused by ball pressure.

Tarris puts the ball on the floor in the paint and defenders double him to strip the ball. That’s his post move and there is no way to avoid that I guess. What bothers me more are guards and forwards telegraphing their passes and throwing it away unforced.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Wasn't sure where to put this. Duke very likely will not have Ngongba for this weekend according to Scheyer. Without him, TCU or Ohio St. may give them a game.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Dan Hurley has also publicly mentioned how UConn has historically had more success outside the Big East, when the Huskies are facing teams that are more unfamiliar with them. One coach agreed with Hurley, pointing out how difficult it is to prepare for their offensive system.

"It's a huge factor," the coach said. "Their offense is so hard to go against. It's sets on top of sets. You can't walk through their stuff because of how fast they run it. You need four days of good prep, so not only can you see what they're going to run, you see how they're going to run it, with speed and precision."

"Their style, their movement, their physicality, can they get back to being who they are and really double down on their identity?" another coach said of the Huskies' ceiling. "Their best is certainly good enough to be playing deep in the tournament."

Coaches predict the men's NCAA tournament champion, potential Cinderellas, more

There was one clear favorite among the 25 coaches polled. Here are their takes on seven contenders and more.

www.espn.com

 

[superjohn]

Wasn't sure where to put this. Duke very likely will not have Ngongba for this weekend according to Scheyer. Without him, TCU or Ohio St. may give them a game.

They very well could lose second round without him. They really snuck it out against FSU.

 

[Marat]

Do we root for St Johns to keep winning rounds 1, 2, 3 ? Its really 50-50 for me.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Do we root for St Johns to keep winning rounds 1, 2, 3 ? Its really 50-50 for me.

As long as Duke is alive, I will pull for St. Johns. If Duke is knocked out early, then rooting against them.

 

[jibsey]

Do we root for St Johns to keep winning rounds 1, 2, 3 ? Its really 50-50 for me.

I’ve said this so many times before. How many of you Yankee and Red Sox fans root for the other team? Ever? It does not happen.
As a Yankee fan in Connecticut there are tons of Red Sox fans. In the past 40 years if the Red Sox was eliminated from playoffs I have yet to have one say they will root for the Yankees who made it. Same Division.
It’s basketball so it’s different?
I root for St. John’s, Pitino and their rotten fans to lose.

 

[Mr. French]

I’ve said this so many times before. How many of you Yankee and Red Sox fans root for the other team? Ever? It does not happen.
As a Yankee fan in Connecticut there are tons of Red Sox fans. In the past 40 years if the Red Sox was eliminated from playoffs I have yet to have one say they will root for the Yankees who made it. Same Division.
It’s basketball so it’s different?
I root for St. John’s, Pitino and their rotten fans to lose.

I’m with you, I can’t imagine rooting for the teams I despise most just cuz they’re in my league. I want them to crash and burn.

 

[superjohn]

I’ve said this so many times before. How many of you Yankee and Red Sox fans root for the other team? Ever? It does not happen.
As a Yankee fan in Connecticut there are tons of Red Sox fans. In the past 40 years if the Red Sox was eliminated from playoffs I have yet to have one say they will root for the Yankees who made it. Same Division.
It’s basketball so it’s different?
I root for St. John’s, Pitino and their rotten fans to lose.

I've always rooted for the Big East, even when UConn was in the AAC and I always will root for the other Big East teams.

My dad was a division guy. Yankees fan but would root for the Red Sox or whoever else was in the division if the Yankees were knocked out.