Matchups

[FightOnCT]

It's not scary if they perform to their percentages.

But as a heavy favorite, you want an opponent who's going to be reliably mediocre, not an opponent who could be either abysmal or great depending on their shooting.

If they go the expected 9 for 27 on 3's, we'll be fine. If they go 14 for 31, then we need to be on our game. And we have absolutely had bad shooting teams go off against us recently.

A bad shooting team (like Seton Hall) going off against us is an aberration. Any game can be a massive outlier of a performance so I’m not worried.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm not really worried about it. The path doesn't get scary until Michigan State, especially if UCLA is banged up. The main problem I see is that Louisville stinks, so it is likely to be Michigan State in the Sweet 16. I think USF has a decent shot of knocking off Louisville.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

A bad shooting team (like Seton Hall) going off against us is an aberration. Any game can be a massive outlier of a performance so I’m not worried.

Yep, our guys better play this game as if Furman could go off from 3pt range.

I think it's very unlikely (but of course, still possible). They've only had 8 games this year where they've shot better than 39% in the game. All of them were against 200+ rated teams, FWIW.

 

[Lafayette]

Well they don’t play bully ball so we should have good movement in our offense of pin downs, ghosts, screens, and wear them out for the second half while we up our D and rebound.

Not sweating this one.

 

[caw]

Watched Furman’s SoCon championship game against ETSU last night. A couple thoughts from that game.

1. The offense ran through 6’11 Cooper Bowser. Pretty much exclusively works in the paint and has a nice post game and touch. He’s going to give up a ton of bulk to Tarris, who has been excellent at keeping his man out of the deep post this year. Bowser is the only real post threat on the offensive end.
2. The rest of the offense seems to flow through their 6’5 freshman PG Wilkins. He did not play well in this game. Takes tons of contests shots and was very loose with the ball (3.6 TO per game in the season and 4 this game). He’s tall but slight and doesn’t really use his size to bully people. Demary and Malachi’s pressure defense should be disruptive. Hes the guy that can go off for 20+ if he’s locked in so they’ve got to play excellent defense.
3. The other guys seem largely to be there for spacing. Most on the perimeter and trying to get drive and dish or pick and pop 3s. They do a good job of making the extra pass to swing the ball around but doesn’t seem to be any real threats to get to the rim consistently and force contact. They start another 6’11 player (Johnston) but he pretty much exclusively stands the perimeter on offense.
4. Defensively, I think they’re a perfect matchup for us. Basically no pressure at all and Bowser is not a rim protector. He doesn’t foul much but also doesn’t really contest aggressively. IMO if Reed’s head is right, he’s going to feast. I think they’re going to have to aggressively double and deny Reed, which will open up other guys. They start two 6’11 guys but Bowser seems to play the traditional 5 defensively. I could easily see quick foul trouble with them trying to deal with Reed’s power, so will be interesting to see how they play the matchups.
5. Half their shots came from 3 and they only shot 15 FTs. That’s even more than their season average. They just do not drive and initiate contact. Honestly, kind of a poor man’s version of our offense without nearly as many actions.
6. They were +12 on the boards but had a significant height advantage in the game (ETSUs two tallest starters were 6’8). They won’t have that same size advantage against us.
7. Bench goes 3-deep, all 6’6 or 6’7. They don’t seem to really bring any different looks from the guys that start. Mostly stand around the perimeter.

Our bigs both have great matchups against Furman and I expect tons of looks from Furman to double and deny. They’ve got to be ready to kick that ball out and find the open man. Excited to see what Solo/Mullins/Karaban can do against far less off-ball pressure and I think this game sets up real nicely for Ross to be a major pest defensively, plus the lack of ball pressure should open up offensive opportunities for him. The key is going to be running all their shooters off the line and our bigs bottling up Bowser.

Bowser and Wilkins have a nice PnR game they play usually with shooters in the corners and one other spacer. They don’t run a ton of off ball action but they do have some plays here and there. From the two games I watched from this past weekend.

Super hard to judge though because the competition is just really bad. Was a bit shocked they even came back in the semis and won.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Furman has not really played many tough teams all year. They've played only 4 games vs teams ranked in the Top ~130 on Hoop Explorer (note HE rates teams similar to KenPom and NetRtg scores track closely with KP).

High Point (74), UNI (72), Illinois St (92), ETSU x2 (135)

They went 0-5 with an average loss margin of 12.6 pts.

Here's their metrics vs those teams:
View attachment 118242

Note that their offense struggled, they relied a lot more on 3pt shots (48% 3pt rate, only made 25% of them, turned it over at a very high rate, and took many fewer 2pt shots...though they actually did great on making those reduced 2pt shot attempts.

Their defense had very bad eFG%, bad TO%, and let teams have a very high Assist% (A%) on their shots. Teams basically had their way on offense vs. their defense.

Compare those stats to how they performed vs. >130 rated teams:
View attachment 118243

Interestingly, they did do a pretty nice job hitting the defensive glass no matter what the level of competition. But their offensive rebounding was not good versus better competition.


This game is all about us showing up to play at least our "C" game.

Doomed, I know.

Still not convinced that this means they'd shoot badly against us. The only takeaway on that side of the ball is that they will shoot a ton of 3s. A team that shoots a lot of 3s can get uncharacteristically hot. It is a risk.

Fortunately, it sounds like we're not going to have too much trouble on offense if they give up a lot of assists.

 

[Mazhude]

I'm about to head out to SW MA for my annual pre-tournament "silent retreat" in the woods.

Expect the official Furman scouting report to drop by Thursday morning, but my initial thoughts is that, analytically, this is Bob Richey's worst team in his nine year tenure, even though they've been one of the biggest (5th tallest in the nation) and best non-Ivy/Patriot mid-majors at roster continuity. They still jack of a ton of threes, but the team's 33.3 3P% is the worst under Richey, while their OR% isn't very good.

"The mountains are calling, and I must go..."

 

[Marat]

Well they don’t play bully ball so we should have good movement in our offense of pin downs, ghosts, screens, and wear them out for the second half while we up our D and rebound.

Not sweating this one.

Hoping our team gets the jitters out and the confidence back with this first game. That will get the ball rolling into the 2nd matchup with increased intensity and high quality play needed to go on a win streak . Its a brand new season and everyone is 0-0. Anything is possible.

 

[Marat]

Still not convinced that this means they'd shoot badly against us. The only takeaway on that side of the ball is that they will shoot a ton of 3s. A team that shoots a lot of 3s can get uncharacteristically hot. It is a risk.

Fortunately, it sounds like we're not going to have too much trouble on offense if they give up a lot of assists.

Probably Dan will have the defense push their shooters off the 3 point line and make them beat us off the dribble or down low. I guess we will foul them as per usual as a result .

 

[Tenspro2002]

Interestingly, these guys seem like a poor man's version of our offense lately -- shooting a high volume of 3's at so-so percentage, and a very good percentage of open 2's.

 

[Inyatkin]

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

 

[JustbrewitMan]

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

FWIW I'd say it will be less likely. That was the last Hurley team that was much much more about defense than offense. We didn't have enough offense to counter NMSU's crazy good shooting night. It's what led to the UConn of the last 4 years.

 

[Palatine]

Exactly. We played in a way that allowed St. John’s to score extra buckets along with fouls. Though the interior defense was a massive issue at the beginning

The post above pretty much encapsulates how turnovers are probably our single biggest issue. We make the game harder for ourselves by throwing the ball away; it’s probably why our offense has been rated so low too.

SJU shot over 70% in the first ten minutes or so. He were torrid. It can down under 50% for the rest of the game. But that really made a huge difference.

 

[CTBasketball]

2 years ago Furman, yes Furman, was a 13 seed in the South and beat 4 seed Virginia.

A fact both coaches are well aware of and talking to their players about it.

That was also the worst Virginia team and was probably over-seeded.

Regardless, the two things I am looking for is how we handle defenses that don’t grip and hold to disrupt our sets. If Silas and crew can deliver the ball cleanly as we go thru progressions, it will benefit us. The first round game will be telling of how we project.

The other thing I am looking at is our path and who is aggressive ball hawking press defenses. Only one I see of is St John’s. UCLA is not the Cronin-Cincinnati teams we know, they are very finesse like now. Also they suck going East so I think UCF is a sneaky good pick in that matchup.

Bring on whoever tho. Hurley makes his money in March on neutral sites, not at MSG.

 

[Lafayette]

That was also the worst Virginia team and was probably over-seeded.

Regardless, the two things I am looking for is how we handle defenses that don’t grip and hold to disrupt our sets. If Silas and crew can deliver the ball cleanly as we go thru progressions, it will benefit us. The first round game will be telling of how we project.

The other thing I am looking at is our path and who is aggressive ball hawking press defenses. Only one I see of is St John’s. UCLA is not the Cronin-Cincinnati teams we know, they are very finesse like now. Also they suck going East so I think UCF is a sneaky good pick in that matchup.

Bring on whoever tho. Hurley makes his money in March on neutral sites, not at MSG.

agree that officiating if clean means we run them around the ringer on offense. We should press a little on D too to just wear them out.

I like Cronin as a coach…very passionate and feel for him if they play us without Dent

 

[Lafayette]

Bowser and Wilkins have a nice PnR game they play usually with shooters in the corners and one other spacer. They don’t run a ton of off ball action but they do have some plays here and there. From the two games I watched from this past weekend.

Super hard to judge though because the competition is just really bad. Was a bit shocked they even came back in the semis and won.

sounds like a law firm…

 

[Lafayette]

Great point regarding the Big East. If we do end up playing St. Johns' in the Elite 8, I expect the officiating to be much different. Especially if anyone on that crew wants to be going to the Final 4/National Championship Round.

We are still getting great looks for Solo, Mullins, and Alex. They either make them and we advance, or continue to struggle, and we will get picked off by a quality opponent. Those guys just need to see the ball go through the net early.

Mullins needs to take a page out of the Georgetown game and take the mid range shots if they are falling. Mitchell was a tough matchup for him. But most teams don't have that kind of player at the 3.

It sucks we didn't win the BE regular season or tournament. That being said, we are still a 2 seed, in the East. We got a very favorable draw in my opinion. Time to move forward. This team should get to the Elite 8 with their draw.

If we play St John’s in the E8 then Kansas and Duke are gone so win and head to final four we play our A+ game