Matchups

[businesslawyer]

FWIW I'd say it will be less likely. That was the last Hurley team that was much much more about defense than offense. We didn't have enough offense to counter NMSU's crazy good shooting night. It's what led to the UConn of the last 4 years.

Good God. You can always lose a game, but Furman is not near the level of that year’s NMSU and we’re much, much better than we were when we played NMSU.

 

[Ripper32]

I'm not really worried about it. The path doesn't get scary until Michigan State, especially if UCLA is banged up. The main problem I see is that Louisville stinks, so it is likely to be Michigan State in the Sweet 16. I think USF has a decent shot of knocking off Louisville.

I agree, Michigan State has enough size and physicality to beat us. It's freaking Izzo. They will deny key spots on the floor and we don't exactly have a host of creative players.

 

[JungleLobo]

They are 51st in the country in 3P attempts and 260th in 3P%, per ESPN. Doesn't seem all that scary to me

2025-26 Men's College Basketball Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

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It’s fur man

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

This team has no P4 journey man named buckets, just fur man

 

[champs99and04]

But as a heavy favorite, you want an opponent who's going to be reliably mediocre, not an opponent who could be either abysmal or great depending on their shooting.

I'd agree with this logic if all attempts were created equal. But the looks they'll be getting against a UConn team that has been one of the best in the country at defending the three are likely to be vastly different than the ones they've been getting in the Southern Conference.

At one time, it was undoubtedly true that the best way for a mid-major to spring an upset in March was to get hot from three. But times have changed a lot - there's no stigma now. If anything, the stigma has flipped. Today's top programs would wince at the thought of adding a Terry Larrier or Daniel Hamilton, guys who would have been considered highly coveted talents in previous eras but are now viewed as liabilities.

And so if the stigma has flipped, so, too, does the calculus. At least in my mind, the most dangerous mid-majors in today's game are the ones with p5 talent that maybe didn't align analytically with the vision of a better program. They might not be able to match your A game, but they can absolutely beat you if you go cold. And, at least in recent times, that's what's led to the major upsets - the big boys going cold.

2023 Princeton only shot 4 of 25 from three in its stunning victory over 15-point favorite Arizona. FDU was just 7-23 in its win over 23.5 point favorite Purdue. Even the aforementioned Foreman team only hit 10 of 28 from deep in its win over Virginia (they were only five point underdogs, so not necessarily as big an upset as it seems).

Sure, there are plenty examples of an underdog shooting over their head and winning, but generally those are defense-first teams that shoot the three at a fairly low volume and may only need a bounce or two to turn a 5 of 17 night into an 8 of 17. The best example of this is probably Saint Peter's in 2022, which shot 9-17 against Kentucky (but only 9-34 against Murray State and Purdue).

By all accounts, Furman isn't that caliber of team. It's 200th in adjusted offense and 181st in adjusted defense. Anything can happen in one game, but I think it would take a borderline miracle for UConn to lose.

 

[caw]

I'd agree with this logic if all attempts were created equal. But the looks they'll be getting against a UConn team that has been one of the best in the country at defending the three are likely to be vastly different than the ones they've been getting in the Southern Conference.

At one time, it was undoubtedly true that the best way for a mid-major to spring an upset in March was to get hot from three. But times have changed a lot - there's no stigma now. If anything, the stigma has flipped. Today's top programs would wince at the thought of adding a Terry Larrier or Daniel Hamilton, guys who would have been considered highly coveted talents in previous eras but are now viewed as liabilities.

And so if the stigma has flipped, so, too, does the calculus. At least in my mind, the most dangerous mid-majors in today's game are the ones with p5 talent that maybe didn't align analytically with the vision of a better program. They might not be able to match your A game, but they can absolutely beat you if you go cold. And, at least in recent times, that's what's led to the major upsets - the big boys going cold.

2023 Princeton only shot 4 of 25 from three in its stunning victory over 15-point favorite Arizona. FDU was just 7-23 in its win over 23.5 point favorite Purdue. Even the aforementioned Foreman team only hit 10 of 28 from deep in its win over Virginia (they were only five point underdogs, so not necessarily as big an upset as it seems).

Sure, there are plenty examples of an underdog shooting over their head and winning, but generally those are defense-first teams that shoot the three at a fairly low volume and may only need a bounce or two to turn a 5 of 17 night into an 8 of 17. The best example of this is probably Saint Peter's in 2022, which shot 9-17 against Kentucky (but only 9-34 against Murray State and Purdue).

By all accounts, Furman isn't that caliber of team. It's 200th in adjusted offense and 181st in adjusted defense. Anything can happen in one game, but I think it would take a borderline miracle for UConn to lose.

Their best win is NET 140 and they were 1-2 against that team this year. For perspective DePaul was the worst NET in the BE at near 100.

They aren’t horrible though. I actually like their center and PG a lot.

 

[JBK]

I'ld be surprised if SJU can defeat both KU and Duke consecutively without Big East refs help. Its not the Big East anymore.

Geez. Huge fan but we cannot get over this St Johns loss. Pitino had a great game plan - they switch on our shooters and we are slow to get open. Very smart.
If you do not think Pitino’s game plan worked let’s wait until we face Michigan state. Izzo is very smart and they are very athletic and tough. Let’s move off of SJU.
They did not cheat as one would think - they are more athletic and played harder than us for that 1 game. We learn and move on. UConn 1st for me - went to the last few ladies championship but like Geno —. I root for our league and hope St. John’s get out of San Diego as well as Villanova

 

[Leebo]

Recent performances don't change how I feel about the tourney. I can't bring myself to root for any of our rivals.

 

[REB1094]

I appreciate the stats and analytics throughout the thread but I think it’s pretty simple

If UConn shows up, they win easily

If UConn sleepwalks and Furman plays the best game of their lives, it could get interesting

Easiest way to guarantee a win is to show up