Matchups

[Tenspro2002]

Furman has not really played many tough teams all year. They've played only 4 games vs teams ranked in the Top ~130 on Hoop Explorer (note HE rates teams similar to KenPom and NetRtg scores track closely with KP).

High Point (74), UNI (72), Illinois St (92), ETSU x2 (135)

They went 0-5 with an average loss margin of 12.6 pts.

Here's their metrics vs those teams:
View attachment 118242

Note that their offense struggled, they relied a lot more on 3pt shots (48% 3pt rate, only made 25% of them, turned it over at a very high rate, and took many fewer 2pt shots...though they actually did great on making those reduced 2pt shot attempts.

Their defense had very bad eFG%, bad TO%, and let teams have a very high Assist% (A%) on their shots. Teams basically had their way on offense vs. their defense.

Compare those stats to how they performed vs. >130 rated teams:
View attachment 118243

Interestingly, they did do a pretty nice job hitting the defensive glass no matter what the level of competition. But their offensive rebounding was not good versus better competition.


This game is all about us showing up to play at least our "C" game.

Doomed, I know.

Still not convinced that this means they'd shoot badly against us. The only takeaway on that side of the ball is that they will shoot a ton of 3s. A team that shoots a lot of 3s can get uncharacteristically hot. It is a risk.

Fortunately, it sounds like we're not going to have too much trouble on offense if they give up a lot of assists.

 

[Mazhude]

I'm about to head out to SW MA for my annual pre-tournament "silent retreat" in the woods.

Expect the official Furman scouting report to drop by Thursday morning, but my initial thoughts is that, analytically, this is Bob Richey's worst team in his nine year tenure, even though they've been one of the biggest (5th tallest in the nation) and best non-Ivy/Patriot mid-majors at roster continuity. They still jack of a ton of threes, but the team's 33.3 3P% is the worst under Richey, while their OR% isn't very good.

"The mountains are calling, and I must go..."

 

[Marat]

Well they don’t play bully ball so we should have good movement in our offense of pin downs, ghosts, screens, and wear them out for the second half while we up our D and rebound.

Not sweating this one.

Hoping our team gets the jitters out and the confidence back with this first game. That will get the ball rolling into the 2nd matchup with increased intensity and high quality play needed to go on a win streak . Its a brand new season and everyone is 0-0. Anything is possible.

 

[Marat]

Still not convinced that this means they'd shoot badly against us. The only takeaway on that side of the ball is that they will shoot a ton of 3s. A team that shoots a lot of 3s can get uncharacteristically hot. It is a risk.

Fortunately, it sounds like we're not going to have too much trouble on offense if they give up a lot of assists.

Probably Dan will have the defense push their shooters off the 3 point line and make them beat us off the dribble or down low. I guess we will foul them as per usual as a result .

 

[Tenspro2002]

Interestingly, these guys seem like a poor man's version of our offense lately -- shooting a high volume of 3's at so-so percentage, and a very good percentage of open 2's.

 

[Inyatkin]

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

 

[JustbrewitMan]

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

FWIW I'd say it will be less likely. That was the last Hurley team that was much much more about defense than offense. We didn't have enough offense to counter NMSU's crazy good shooting night. It's what led to the UConn of the last 4 years.

 

[Palatine]

Exactly. We played in a way that allowed St. John’s to score extra buckets along with fouls. Though the interior defense was a massive issue at the beginning

The post above pretty much encapsulates how turnovers are probably our single biggest issue. We make the game harder for ourselves by throwing the ball away; it’s probably why our offense has been rated so low too.

SJU shot over 70% in the first ten minutes or so. He were torrid. It can down under 50% for the rest of the game. But that really made a huge difference.

 

[CTBasketball]

2 years ago Furman, yes Furman, was a 13 seed in the South and beat 4 seed Virginia.

A fact both coaches are well aware of and talking to their players about it.

That was also the worst Virginia team and was probably over-seeded.

Regardless, the two things I am looking for is how we handle defenses that don’t grip and hold to disrupt our sets. If Silas and crew can deliver the ball cleanly as we go thru progressions, it will benefit us. The first round game will be telling of how we project.

The other thing I am looking at is our path and who is aggressive ball hawking press defenses. Only one I see of is St John’s. UCLA is not the Cronin-Cincinnati teams we know, they are very finesse like now. Also they suck going East so I think UCF is a sneaky good pick in that matchup.

Bring on whoever tho. Hurley makes his money in March on neutral sites, not at MSG.

 

[Lafayette]

That was also the worst Virginia team and was probably over-seeded.

Regardless, the two things I am looking for is how we handle defenses that don’t grip and hold to disrupt our sets. If Silas and crew can deliver the ball cleanly as we go thru progressions, it will benefit us. The first round game will be telling of how we project.

The other thing I am looking at is our path and who is aggressive ball hawking press defenses. Only one I see of is St John’s. UCLA is not the Cronin-Cincinnati teams we know, they are very finesse like now. Also they suck going East so I think UCF is a sneaky good pick in that matchup.

Bring on whoever tho. Hurley makes his money in March on neutral sites, not at MSG.

agree that officiating if clean means we run them around the ringer on offense. We should press a little on D too to just wear them out.

I like Cronin as a coach…very passionate and feel for him if they play us without Dent

 

[Lafayette]

Bowser and Wilkins have a nice PnR game they play usually with shooters in the corners and one other spacer. They don’t run a ton of off ball action but they do have some plays here and there. From the two games I watched from this past weekend.

Super hard to judge though because the competition is just really bad. Was a bit shocked they even came back in the semis and won.

sounds like a law firm…

 

[Lafayette]

Great point regarding the Big East. If we do end up playing St. Johns' in the Elite 8, I expect the officiating to be much different. Especially if anyone on that crew wants to be going to the Final 4/National Championship Round.

We are still getting great looks for Solo, Mullins, and Alex. They either make them and we advance, or continue to struggle, and we will get picked off by a quality opponent. Those guys just need to see the ball go through the net early.

Mullins needs to take a page out of the Georgetown game and take the mid range shots if they are falling. Mitchell was a tough matchup for him. But most teams don't have that kind of player at the 3.

It sucks we didn't win the BE regular season or tournament. That being said, we are still a 2 seed, in the East. We got a very favorable draw in my opinion. Time to move forward. This team should get to the Elite 8 with their draw.

If we play St John’s in the E8 then Kansas and Duke are gone so win and head to final four we play our A+ game

 

[Marat]

If we play St John’s in the E8 then Kansas and Duke are gone so win and head to final four we play our A+ game

I'ld be surprised if SJU can defeat both KU and Duke consecutively without Big East refs help. Its not the Big East anymore.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'ld be surprised if SJU can defeat both KU and Duke consecutively without Big East refs help. Its not the Big East anymore.

SJU is an enigma. Thriving in the Big East, played a good OOC and got destroyed by it, losing 3 games to SEC teams and losing to Iowa State. They beat a crappy Baylor team and hung on to beat Ole Miss. So there's definitely a question about that style of play translating. UConn is the opposite, at least we hope so.

 

[CTBasketball]

SJU is an enigma. Thriving in the Big East, played a good OOC and got destroyed by it, losing 3 games to SEC teams and losing to Iowa State. They beat a crappy Baylor team and hung on to beat Ole Miss. So there's definitely a question about that style of play translating. UConn is the opposite, at least we hope so.

Completely different team than in Nov/Dec.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

Starting with Fuhrman, UConn will need to play an A game defensively against each opponent, since this is a one and done situation. That needs to be the mentality. Can they do it? If so, then it will be fun.

I have no confidence in our chances after the first game with Furman

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I have no confidence in our chances after the first game with Furman

Good to know.

 

[KingAG]

Yep, we seem to have had an issue with silly TOs all season, but it's gotten much worse in the latter 1/3 of the season. This is one of the things we ABSOLUTELY need to clean up in the NCAAT. These stats below are disgusting:

This is what I’ve been saying. Our issue wasn’t necessarily St John’s. We have waaay too may unforced turnovers. We do it against everyone

 

[uconnfan68]

SJU is an enigma. Thriving in the Big East, played a good OOC and got destroyed by it, losing 3 games to SEC teams and losing to Iowa State. They beat a crappy Baylor team and hung on to beat Ole Miss. So there's definitely a question about that style of play translating. UConn is the opposite, at least we hope so.

They were a different team earlier. Mitchell and Darling getting big minutes now.

 

[Ripper32]

I'm not really worried about it. The path doesn't get scary until Michigan State, especially if UCLA is banged up. The main problem I see is that Louisville stinks, so it is likely to be Michigan State in the Sweet 16. I think USF has a decent shot of knocking off Louisville.

Louisville is not physical whatsoever, which is typical of Kelsey's teams. I think he hasn't won a tournament game in his career.

 

[businesslawyer]

FWIW I'd say it will be less likely. That was the last Hurley team that was much much more about defense than offense. We didn't have enough offense to counter NMSU's crazy good shooting night. It's what led to the UConn of the last 4 years.

Good God. You can always lose a game, but Furman is not near the level of that year’s NMSU and we’re much, much better than we were when we played NMSU.

 

[Ripper32]

I'm not really worried about it. The path doesn't get scary until Michigan State, especially if UCLA is banged up. The main problem I see is that Louisville stinks, so it is likely to be Michigan State in the Sweet 16. I think USF has a decent shot of knocking off Louisville.

I agree, Michigan State has enough size and physicality to beat us. It's freaking Izzo. They will deny key spots on the floor and we don't exactly have a host of creative players.

 

[JungleLobo]

They are 51st in the country in 3P attempts and 260th in 3P%, per ESPN. Doesn't seem all that scary to me

2025-26 Men's College Basketball Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NCAAM stats! Find a list of the team stat leaders for the 2025-26 NCAAM Regular Season.

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It’s fur man

New Mexico State had a crazy good shooting night, and it knocked us out. It happens. Doesn't make it any more or less likely this time, but these guys are a 15 seed for a reason

This team has no P4 journey man named buckets, just fur man

 

[champs99and04]

But as a heavy favorite, you want an opponent who's going to be reliably mediocre, not an opponent who could be either abysmal or great depending on their shooting.

I'd agree with this logic if all attempts were created equal. But the looks they'll be getting against a UConn team that has been one of the best in the country at defending the three are likely to be vastly different than the ones they've been getting in the Southern Conference.

At one time, it was undoubtedly true that the best way for a mid-major to spring an upset in March was to get hot from three. But times have changed a lot - there's no stigma now. If anything, the stigma has flipped. Today's top programs would wince at the thought of adding a Terry Larrier or Daniel Hamilton, guys who would have been considered highly coveted talents in previous eras but are now viewed as liabilities.

And so if the stigma has flipped, so, too, does the calculus. At least in my mind, the most dangerous mid-majors in today's game are the ones with p5 talent that maybe didn't align analytically with the vision of a better program. They might not be able to match your A game, but they can absolutely beat you if you go cold. And, at least in recent times, that's what's led to the major upsets - the big boys going cold.

2023 Princeton only shot 4 of 25 from three in its stunning victory over 15-point favorite Arizona. FDU was just 7-23 in its win over 23.5 point favorite Purdue. Even the aforementioned Foreman team only hit 10 of 28 from deep in its win over Virginia (they were only five point underdogs, so not necessarily as big an upset as it seems).

Sure, there are plenty examples of an underdog shooting over their head and winning, but generally those are defense-first teams that shoot the three at a fairly low volume and may only need a bounce or two to turn a 5 of 17 night into an 8 of 17. The best example of this is probably Saint Peter's in 2022, which shot 9-17 against Kentucky (but only 9-34 against Murray State and Purdue).

By all accounts, Furman isn't that caliber of team. It's 200th in adjusted offense and 181st in adjusted defense. Anything can happen in one game, but I think it would take a borderline miracle for UConn to lose.

 

[caw]

I'd agree with this logic if all attempts were created equal. But the looks they'll be getting against a UConn team that has been one of the best in the country at defending the three are likely to be vastly different than the ones they've been getting in the Southern Conference.

At one time, it was undoubtedly true that the best way for a mid-major to spring an upset in March was to get hot from three. But times have changed a lot - there's no stigma now. If anything, the stigma has flipped. Today's top programs would wince at the thought of adding a Terry Larrier or Daniel Hamilton, guys who would have been considered highly coveted talents in previous eras but are now viewed as liabilities.

And so if the stigma has flipped, so, too, does the calculus. At least in my mind, the most dangerous mid-majors in today's game are the ones with p5 talent that maybe didn't align analytically with the vision of a better program. They might not be able to match your A game, but they can absolutely beat you if you go cold. And, at least in recent times, that's what's led to the major upsets - the big boys going cold.

2023 Princeton only shot 4 of 25 from three in its stunning victory over 15-point favorite Arizona. FDU was just 7-23 in its win over 23.5 point favorite Purdue. Even the aforementioned Foreman team only hit 10 of 28 from deep in its win over Virginia (they were only five point underdogs, so not necessarily as big an upset as it seems).

Sure, there are plenty examples of an underdog shooting over their head and winning, but generally those are defense-first teams that shoot the three at a fairly low volume and may only need a bounce or two to turn a 5 of 17 night into an 8 of 17. The best example of this is probably Saint Peter's in 2022, which shot 9-17 against Kentucky (but only 9-34 against Murray State and Purdue).

By all accounts, Furman isn't that caliber of team. It's 200th in adjusted offense and 181st in adjusted defense. Anything can happen in one game, but I think it would take a borderline miracle for UConn to lose.

Their best win is NET 140 and they were 1-2 against that team this year. For perspective DePaul was the worst NET in the BE at near 100.

They aren’t horrible though. I actually like their center and PG a lot.

 

[JBK]

I'ld be surprised if SJU can defeat both KU and Duke consecutively without Big East refs help. Its not the Big East anymore.

Geez. Huge fan but we cannot get over this St Johns loss. Pitino had a great game plan - they switch on our shooters and we are slow to get open. Very smart.
If you do not think Pitino’s game plan worked let’s wait until we face Michigan state. Izzo is very smart and they are very athletic and tough. Let’s move off of SJU.
They did not cheat as one would think - they are more athletic and played harder than us for that 1 game. We learn and move on. UConn 1st for me - went to the last few ladies championship but like Geno —. I root for our league and hope St. John’s get out of San Diego as well as Villanova

 

[Leebo]

Recent performances don't change how I feel about the tourney. I can't bring myself to root for any of our rivals.

 

[REB1094]

I appreciate the stats and analytics throughout the thread but I think it’s pretty simple

If UConn shows up, they win easily

If UConn sleepwalks and Furman plays the best game of their lives, it could get interesting

Easiest way to guarantee a win is to show up

 

[CTBasketball]

This is what I’ve been saying. Our issue wasn’t necessarily St John’s. We have waaay too may unforced turnovers. We do it against everyone

Our problems are exasperated by St John’s and teams like St John’s. Anyone who presses us will turn us over. Anyone who brings the double on Reed and he doesn’t pass out will turn us over or generate bad shots.

St John’s got away with some grabbing which likely led to less open 3’s. Turnovers were caused by ball pressure.

 

[KingAG]

Our problems are exasperated by St John’s and teams like St John’s. Anyone who presses us will turn us over. Anyone who brings the double on Reed and he doesn’t pass out will turn us over or generate bad shots.

St John’s got away with some grabbing which likely led to less open 3’s. Turnovers were caused by ball pressure.

Yea we turn the ball over anyway, so a team like SJ makes it worse.

I just don’t think it’s a physicality thing. I think it’s we just don’t make good decisions. We have to at least make good decisions. Then I can live with the physical limitations