March General CBB Discussion Thread | Page 33 | The Boneyard

March General CBB Discussion Thread

What’s the verdict on Duke, is this some fluke or do they look vulnerable with all the injuries
 
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Kayde Dotson with a Malachi Smith* for Loyola to tie the game with 0.6 seconds left

*Aimlessly dribble around for 15 seconds before making a 3
 
Great results for our 2 seed in the East hopes:
1) Duke barely hangs on against FSU
2) Houston wins
3) ISU dominates
 
bendm said:
No I agree they don’t need to lose a game to lose the #1 overall seed. Not a convincing win. They could be jumped by either/or Zona and UM and still get the 1 in the East.
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It's going to be hard to jump them without a loss because of the recent head to head neutral court win over Michigan
 
auror said:
It's going to be hard to jump them without a loss because of the recent head to head neutral court win over Michigan
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Not even if Zona wins the Big12 in convincing fashion? Well I’ll be rooting for a Duke L just in case
 
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auror said:
Not if Duke also wins the ACC I don't think. But I wouldn't say 100%.
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Ugh ISU plays Zona tomorrow. That’s a Sophie’s choice for us. Need Zona to jump Duke and ISU to knock a BIG team off the 2 line. The fates are conspiring against us from getting the 2 in the east.
Edit- Lunardi has ISU as a 2 over Illinois. Need Illinois to lose tomorrow.
 
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auror said:
It's going to be hard to jump them without a loss because of the recent head to head neutral court win over Michigan
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Why? Who are they going to play that compares to who those other two play? UNC without Wilson? Winning the Big 12 or 10 means beating much better teams than Duke will face.
 
bendm said:
Ugh ISU plays Zona tomorrow. That’s a Sophie’s choice for us. Need Zona to jump Duke and ISU to knock a BIG team off the 2 line. The fates are conspiring against us from getting the 2 in the east.
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Why would a Big Ten team be ahead of UConn for #2 in the east? I don’t get that at all. Unless it was Maryland or Rutgers.
 
Kansas starting to play better. Peterson is such a game changer when he’s distributing. Plays very good defense too.

I know the floor is slippery and a bad idea, but it does look kinda cool. A bit monochromatic maybe.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Why would a Big Ten team be ahead of UConn for #2 in the east? I don’t get that at all. Unless it was Maryland or Rutgers.
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That wasn’t the implication of what I wrote. We want Zona to jump Duke for 1 overall and for ISU to bump Illinois off the 2 because We want ISU to be the 2 seed in the Midwest. If both msu and Illinois are 2 seeds it would force UConn to the midwest because a BIG team can’t be paired with UM.

But My point was both Zona and ISU can’t win tomorrow due to the Big12 bracket. So We need to hope Duke and Illinois both lose tomorrow.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
I

Why? Who are they going to play that compares to who those other two play? UNC without Wilson? Winning the Big 12 or 10 means beating much better teams than Duke will face.
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I begrudgingly agree with auror, because who are we kidding? It’s Duke and they aren’t getting bumped from #1 overall without losing. No faith in the committee.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
Why would a Big Ten team be ahead of UConn for #2 in the east? I don’t get that at all. Unless it was Maryland or Rutgers.
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If Duke is #1 overall then UConn can't be in the East with them as the top 2 seed
 
navery12 said:
If Duke is #1 overall then UConn can't be in the East with them as the top 2 seed
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Gemini just reminded me even if UConn is #6 overall they won’t be paired with Duke in the east if Duke is #1 overall to “balance” the seeds. They will reward the #1 overall with the last 2 seed. We need Duke (and Illinois) to lose.
 
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bendm said:
Gemini just told me even if UConn is #6 overall they won’t be paired with Duke in the east if Duke is #1 overall. They will reward the #1 overall with the last 2 seed. It’s rigged. Did we get this treatment in 2024? ISU wasn’t the worst 2 were they? We need Duke (and Illinois) to lose.
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Iowa State actually was 8th on the S-curve in 2024
 
It would be ridiculous if Miami of Ohio didn't get in, the fact that this is a discussion is ridiculous enough. Your a bubble team who won't get in now because of 2 Mac teams getting in oh well too bad win more games.

Would there even be a discussion on MOH not getting in if Bruce Pearl didn't say what he said. Come to think of it if MOH doesn't get in there could be a potential lawsuit against Bruce Pearl for having public influence on the committee.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
Why? Who are they going to play that compares to who those other two play? UNC without Wilson? Winning the Big 12 or 10 means beating much better teams than Duke will face.
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Because Duke is ahead of Arizona in both predictive metrics and resume/WAB AND has the inertia and the elite win tiebreaker as it stands. The margin in KenPom is a decent one. It is very hard to catch a team in the predictive metrics at this point in the season without them losing, because each game is just 1 of x and x gets bigger so each game's proportion of the whole is smaller. Arizona and Michigan can't beat themselves or each other, so they have to beat lesser teams in their league.

Arizona does get Iowa State and potentially Houston, which is best case scenario for them. That's 1.6 WAB they can add. Duke will potentially get Clemson and Virginia, which would be 1.3 WAB. Duke is ahead of Arizona by 0.4 WAB at the moment, so Arizona would gain substantial ground, and would put them close to even in the resume metrics.

But then you're still competing with the fact that Duke was already ahead in the minds of everyone and has a likely predictive metric edge.

Michigan is ahead in the resumes, could pull a bit farther ahead, and is basically even with the predictives. They would have the better shot, but Duke has that head to head win.

It just doesn't feel likely, especially because the committee does a lot of the work on the early seeds pretty early in the process, and it typically takes a loss or something major to really convince them to re-jig the board.
 
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