Louisville Postgame Thread

[oldude]

Forget the KK comment. My point is that they lost the 2nd half, maybe partially due to fatigue. Don't think 38 minutes for Azzi and Sarah at this point in the season makes sense. IMHO.

I have always been reluctant to accept the argument that a team “lost the 2nd half” or lost a particular qtr, when that same team wins the game, which is the only thing that matters. How often does UConn “lose” the 4th qtr, when they are up 30 and empty their bench? I also believe that “fatigue” was not a factor for the Huskies, who are incredibly well conditioned athletes.

UConn jumped out to a big lead which allowed Geno to experiment with various rotations and offensive options, against a good Louisville team. The outcome of the game itself was never in doubt. Had UConn shot a reasonable percentage from the arc, they beat Louisville by 30+.

Azzi, Ash and Sarah in particular have all proven they can knock down 3’s under pressure in big games. UConn simply didn’t shoot the ball well in their 1st game. I have no doubt that issue will be resolved quickly.

 

[HuskyNan]

Forget the KK comment. My point is that they lost the 2nd half, maybe partially due to fatigue. Don't think 38 minutes for Azzi and Sarah at this point in the season makes sense. IMHO.

The have the entire Big East season to rest

 

[ubasketball]

If an horrendously bad three-point shooting percentage in one or a few games (and we STILL won by 13) from one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country is something worth being concerned about, I could not be happier with where we are right now.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

8 player rotation? 38 minutes for Azzi and Sarah?First game of a very long season. Fatigue may have been a factor in Louisville "winning" the 2nd half. I want to see players getting court time. You don't. Yes, players do have options. With these 14-15 player rosters( coaches stockpiling) we are/will see more players making moves. SBI.

There are 32 season games, 6 games against current Top25, and 21 Big East season games.

Geno has to balance many objectives every game toward the overarching program goals of Big East and NCAAT championships.

In another thread, I made a distinction between winning-time rotations &1 and bridge rotations in a maximum 10/11 rotation in competitive minutes.

I think it is fair to say that Geno’s objectives in Game 1 (an assessment game table-setter for the season’s trajectory) against 1 of the 6 ranked opponents is different than other games.

• I opined above that the Louisville game was a great first game;
• That game is geared toward assessing his winning time rotations &1 (those with spurtability) and making them crave further teaching.

There are many other games for other objectives. UConn’s schedule has its farm system advantages.

&1 Winning-time combinations hypothesis:

(Azzi, Sarah) + 2 or 3 or 1 of (Serah, Ash, Blanca) + 1 or 0 or 2 of (KK, Kayleigh).

 

[FanSince17]

I have always been reluctant to accept the argument that a team “lost the 2nd half” or lost a particular qtr, when that same team wins the game, which is the only thing that matters. How often does UConn “lose” the 4th qtr, when they are up 30 and empty their bench? I also believe that “fatigue” was not a factor for the Huskies, who are incredibly well conditioned athletes.

UConn jumped out to a big lead which allowed Geno to experiment with various rotations and offensive options, against a good Louisville team. The outcome of the game itself was never in doubt. Had UConn shot a reasonable percentage from the arc, they beat Louisville by 30+.

Azzi, Ash and Sarah in particular have all proven they can knock down 3’s under pressure in big games. UConn simply didn’t shoot the ball well in their 1st game. I have no doubt that issue will be resolved quickly.

oldude, voice of reason 100% of the time.
Your 1st paragraph here a little "tinny". What is your explanation for the 4th quarter? You said it wasn't fatigue. ok. Was it the lineups? I didn't notice it being extended "turkey time".
"Losing the 4th quarter", how about getting significantly outscored?
Why couldn't they handle the Louisville screening action at the 3 point line? Standard fair.
Azzi, one of the best shooters in the world, period. Ugh. She even missed a bunny, and 5 foot open shots. Disappointed with Serah's game. Hopefully she can acclimate. Quicker moves and decisions.
First 15 minutes- beautiful! Tempo was butter! KK overwhelming on both ends. Who put the "governor" on KK? (herself?, coach?)
Kayleigh! Nice! I'm excited!

 

[oldude]

oldude, voice of reason 100% of the time.
Your 1st paragraph here a little "tinny". What is your explanation for the 4th quarter? You said it wasn't fatigue. ok. Was it the lineups? I didn't notice it being extended "turkey time".
"Losing the 4th quarter", how about getting significantly outscored?
Why couldn't they handle the Louisville screening action at the 3 point line? Standard fair.
Azzi, one of the best shooters in the world, period. Ugh. She even missed a bunny, and 5 foot open shots. Disappointed with Serah's game. Hopefully she can acclimate. Quicker moves and decisions.
First 15 minutes- beautiful! Tempo was butter! KK overwhelming on both ends. Who put the "governor" on KK? (herself?, coach?)
Kayleigh! Nice! I'm excited!

All good questions. But UConn was up 20 pts in the 4th qtr and won by 14. If it was a close game that UConn lost in the last 3-5 minutes of the game, I would be deeply concerned. Otherwise, if Geno is not concerned, which he wasn’t, then I sure as hell am not concerned.

 

[BobbyJ]

All good questions. But UConn was up 20 pts in the 4th qtr and won by 14. If it was a close game that UConn lost in the last 3-5 minutes of the game, I would be deeply concerned. Otherwise, if Geno is not concerned, which he wasn’t, then I sure as hell am not concerned.

Can you imagine what these people are going to come up with if Uconn actually has a close game? 🙄

 

[Bone Dog]

Nitpick incoming. Feel free to ignore. The term ‘rotation’ doesn’t seem quite right for the first game of the season. I submit that ‘rotation’ mainly makes sense in terms of average playing time across multiple games. Some define this as ‘minutes when the game is still competitive.’ The shorthand for this I use is 10 minutes: above this typically means competitive minutes, below it means non-competitive minutes. If you have the patience to study individual game stats, this can definitely be fine tuned. If not, than 10 mpg is a decent cutoff for the term ‘rotation.’

In this one game 8 players got some minutes but only 6 got at least 10 mins. If we insist on using the term rotation here, then this game suggests a 6 player rotation. Clearly this is not an accurate sense of things as Blanca is very likely to be a rotation player across the entire season, and maybe even more than this. So too, at least one of Jana and Ice will be in the rotation, and maybe even both of them. And for those of us imagining a 10 or 11 player rotation, maybe Allie and Kelis, or even Morgan could work their way in.

Until we’ve seen a few more games — maybe a dozen or more — perhaps we should be careful about using limited numbers to declare a rotation has been determined. Of course, we can always forecast such things on the most limited of evidence.

 

[PacoSwede]

All good questions. But UConn was up 20 pts in the 4th qtr and won by 14. If it was a close game that UConn lost in the last 3-5 minutes of the game, I would be deeply concerned. Otherwise, if Geno is not concerned, which he wasn’t, then I sure as hell am not concerned.

i would wager that geno did have and will express his concerns to the team. ... he doesn't have to share them with the media/the public. he still has some, i daresay, and surely will address them as a 'teaching opportunity" with the players.

and btw, why shouldn't posters share their concerns? it's one of the purposes of the BY, no?

 

[HuskyNan]

Can you imagine what these people are going to come up with if Uconn actually has a close game? 🙄

Refilled my Xanax prescription already

 

[FanSince17]

Can you imagine what these people are going to come up with if Uconn actually has a close game? 🙄

What's the point of a blog, if one doesn't have fun talking about the details of the games and the team as we see it. Besides, wins and losses take care of themselves. I enjoy the process.
Please don't reply directly to me and use the term "these people". Not polite.
I'm a monster fan. I drove 1200 miles to see them play at the Naval Academy.

 

[CL82]

During the POST GAME Pressor, Jeff Walz said that in the second
half Louisville switched to a ZONE defense. Any Boneyarder thoughts
about that??

I believe he is correct. They did switch to a zone defense.

 

[BobbyJ]

Refilled my Xanax prescription already

That’s definitely a good thing. I mean, we’re just one game in and we’ve already had the first “WE lost the 4th quarter” wailing. Not to mention the worrying that 2nd half fatigue set in for the starters.

 

[HuskyNan]

What's the point of a blog, if one doesn't have fun talking about the details of the games and the team as we see it. Besides, wins and losses take care of themselves. I enjoy the process.
Please don't reply directly to me and use the term "these people". Not polite.
I'm a monster fan. I drove 1200 miles to see them play at the Naval Academy.

He didn’t. BobbyJ replied to olddude

People get carried away and it’s not uncommon to see statements like “If they shoot like this against [name of scary opponent] they’re going to lose before the Elite 8”. Based on a one game performance. I’ve been on the Boneyard for 30 years and it happens every single year

 

[oldude]

i would wager that geno did have and will express his concerns to the team. ... he doesn't have to share them with the media/the public. he still has some, i daresay, and surely will address them as a 'teaching opportunity" with the players.

and btw, why shouldn't posters share their concerns? it's one of the purposes of the BY, no?

I have absolutely no problem with BY’ers sharing their concerns, just as I have absolutely no problem sharing my opinions if I disagree with their concerns. 😉

 

[BobbyJ]

What's the point of a blog, if one doesn't have fun talking about the details of the games and the team as we see it. Besides, wins and losses take care of themselves. I enjoy the process.
Please don't reply directly to me and use the term "these people". Not polite.
I'm a monster fan. I drove 1200 miles to see them play at the Naval Academy.

Check again, I didn’t reply directly to you and I don’t care how far you drove. Post whatever you want and I’ll do the same.

 

[HuskyNan]

That’s definitely a good thing. I mean, we’re just one game in and we’ve already had the first “WE lost the 4th quarter” wailing. Not to mention the worrying that 2nd half fatigue set in for the starters.

And players are already streaky or not as good as advertised or declared to be worthy only of garbage time. Unless it’s obvious Geno is only sticking with 8 players then he really should play the freshmen more. Unless their defense sucks and they turn over the ball and, gasp, lose the quarter

Maybe I should get an extra month’s worth of the prescription

 

[Oldschoolbb]

If an horrendously bad three-point shooting percentage in one or a few games (and we STILL won by 13) from one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country is something worth being concerned about, I could not be happier with where we are right now.

I don't know how they could be considered one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at this point.

 

[HuskyNan]

I don't know how they could be considered one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at this point.

That would be Idaho State, I guess.

Since it seems we can extrapolate an entire season from one game, it looks like Vermont should be the runaway favorite to win it all this year

 

[Basingstoke]

I have always been reluctant to accept the argument that a team “lost the 2nd half” or lost a particular qtr, when that same team wins the game, which is the only thing that matters. How often does UConn “lose” the 4th qtr, when they are up 30 and empty their bench? I also believe that “fatigue” was not a factor for the Huskies, who are incredibly well conditioned athletes.

UConn jumped out to a big lead which allowed Geno to experiment with various rotations and offensive options, against a good Louisville team. The outcome of the game itself was never in doubt. Had UConn shot a reasonable percentage from the arc, they beat Louisville by 30+.

Azzi, Ash and Sarah in particular have all proven they can knock down 3’s under pressure in big games. UConn simply didn’t shoot the ball well in their 1st game. I have no doubt that issue will be resolved quickly.

Also, keep in mind, that UCONN (as opposed to L'ville in the 2nd half) did not do a lot of driving to the hoop, resulting in not having many free throws.

 

[CL82]

I’ve been on the Boneyard for 30 years

Hard to believe it's been that long, isn't it?

 

[Centerstream]

I believe he is correct. They did switch to a zone defense.

And in the second half, Rebecca Lobo stated it on Louisville's first or second time on defense, so I too think he was correct.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Also : bummer on attendance. Lotsa empty seats.

3640/5710 capacity (64%)

I beg to differ. UConn plays at Georgetown in a 4200 seat off-campus facility. All three years i’ve attended, the arena is full. But that includes a good size Hoya contingent.

At Navy, there was a small Louisville group, a fair size group of season ticket holders and the rest UConn supporters. For a Tuesday night at 5:30 game, i was pleasantly surprised by the crowd.

 

[Centerstream]

Hard to believe it's been that long, isn't it?

Was the internet even invented 30 years ago? 🤣

Sarcasm...I know it was because I got a job in 1993 working on an internet based app.

 

[Bigboote]

That would be Idaho State, I guess.

Since it seems we can extrapolate an entire season from one game, it looks like Vermont should be the runaway favorite to win it all this year

View attachment 113031

I respect your point of view. I'll go out on a limb and possibly anger the basketball goddesses, though, and predict that UConn will overtake both the Catamounts and the Bengals, likely sometime in mid-late February.😱 Or possibly as soon as either school plays someone from Division I.

 

[CL82]

Was the internet even invented 30 years ago? 🤣

I'm old enough to remember those early days as well. I believe the Boneyard servers at the time required Tom to generate electricity using a hand crank system in his garage.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Nitpick incoming. Feel free to ignore. The term ‘rotation’ doesn’t seem quite right for the first game of the season. I submit that ‘rotation’ mainly makes sense in terms of average playing time across multiple games. Some define this as ‘minutes when the game is still competitive.’ The shorthand for this I use is 10 minutes: above this typically means competitive minutes, below it means non-competitive minutes. If you have the patience to study individual game stats, this can definitely be fine tuned. If not, than 10 mpg is a decent cutoff for the term ‘rotation.’

In this one game 8 players got some minutes but only 6 got at least 10 mins. If we insist on using the term rotation here, then this game suggests a 6 player rotation. Clearly this is not an accurate sense of things as Blanca is very likely to be a rotation player across the entire season, and maybe even more than this. So too, at least one of Jana and Ice will be in the rotation, and maybe even both of them. And for those of us imagining a 10 or 11 player rotation, maybe Allie and Kelis, or even Morgan could work their way in.

Until we’ve seen a few more games — maybe a dozen or more — perhaps we should be careful about using limited numbers to declare a rotation has been determined. Of course, we can always forecast such things on the most limited of evidence.

Bill James (who invented Pythagorean Expectation which is a bedrock of KenPom (he has since adjusted it) and women’s KenPom) has a famous ”Is the Game Safe” heurestic &1 that can be used to demarcate between “competitive minutes” and “garbage time”. Of course, one doesn’t need the heuristic if the opponent has emptied out its bench.

Women’s KenPom removes garbage time.

Aubrey is a rotation player (someone who Geno trusts in competitive minutes of games) in the South Carolina finals game, even though she only subbed for Sarah at the end of the third quarter to a few minutes after the 4th, to give Sarah a breather and keep pressure at SC with a “bridge rotation” version of small ball.

And yes, max of 10/11 rotation, is a WAG at this point.

&1 The heuristic is particularly applicable to teams that can make nearly impossible runs. For certain opponents, Geno may choose to play, say Gandy, earlier than what the heuristic says.

 

[HuskyNan]

I respect your point of view. I'll go out on a limb and possibly anger the basketball goddesses, though, and predict that UConn will overtake both the Catamounts and the Bengals, likely sometime in mid-late February.😱 Or possibly as soon as either school plays someone from Division I.

Don’t slow me down - I’m on a roll

 

[Bone Dog]

Bill James (who invented Pythagorean Expectation which is a bedrock of KenPom (he has since adjusted it) and women’s KenPom) has a famous ”Is the Game Safe” heurestic &1 that can be used to demarcate between “competitive minutes” and “garbage time”. Of course, one doesn’t need the heuristic if the opponent has emptied out its bench.

Women’s KenPom removes garbage time.

Aubrey is a rotation player (someone who Geno trusts in competitive minutes of games) in the South Carolina finals game, even though she only subbed for Sarah at the end of the third quarter to a few minutes after the 4th, to give Sarah a breather and keep pressure at SC with a “bridge rotation” version of small ball.

And yes, max of 10/11 rotation, is a WAG at this point.

&1 The heuristic is particularly applicable to teams that can make nearly impossible runs. For certain opponents, Geno may choose to play, say Gandy, earlier than what the heuristic says.

Thanks for the awesome KenPom links. Those are always fun, and it was wonderful to spend a little time on his pages. Of course, the temptation to really get deeply lost in the weeds over there is always a concern. 🙀

As a side note, I try to avoid the term 'garbage time' as it feels a little insensitive to the players who are relegated to the end of the bench. Most of them are kids who've worked incredibly hard to get even that far, and some of them are kids who might start at other schools but choose to stay at UConn because of the quality of the experience. In many cases, their contributions are real even if we don't see it in game play.

That said, I appreciate the effort KenPom makes to clarify quantitative measures of the obscuring effect of what can happen at the end of non-competitive games. By contrast, my 10 mpg rule of thumb is an example of a totally rough and ready, and therefore not super accurate way to capture a similar reality, but with very little subtlety. And your remark about Aubrey in the SC game makes its limitations clear. For example, if I look at the stats for an entire season, I can begin by assuming that only the kids who got 10 mpg or better were really part of the regular rotation. But even this can be misleading unless I add in a 'games played' correction, and the difference between top-20 vs unranked opponents would refine it even further. And the list of tweaks one could make just goes on from there. Ultimately, the most refined determination of the rotation would not correlate very well with a simple mpg stat. But most of the time, I don't have the time for anything subtler than my 10 mpg rule.

 

[YKCornelius]

There are 32 season games, 6 games against current Top25, and 21 Big East season games.

Geno has to balance many objectives every game toward the overarching program goals of Big East and NCAAT championships.

In another thread, I made a distinction between winning-time rotations &1 and bridge rotations in a maximum 10/11 rotation in competitive minutes.

I think it is fair to say that Geno’s objectives in Game 1 (an assessment game table-setter for the season’s trajectory) against 1 of the 6 ranked opponents is different than other games.

• I opined above that the Louisville game was a great first game;
• That game is geared toward assessing his winning time rotations &1 (those with spurtability) and making them crave further teaching.

There are many other games for other objectives. UConn’s schedule has its farm system advantages.

&1 Winning-time combinations hypothesis:

(Azzi, Sarah) + 2 or 3 or 1 of (Serah, Ash, Blanca) + 1 or 0 or 2 of (KK, Kayleigh).

NycUcWbbFan, good, thought provoking points. I agree with you.

Slight correction/clarification: there are only 31 season games, followed by potentially nine tournament games. The Sports-Reference link you gave reflects an erroneous double-count of Creighton in the middle of February.