Louisville beating UConn aint in the CARDS

[Tonyc]

Its not in the Cards for Lousiville to beat UConn. All things being equal it will take Louisville to score over 80 pts against UConns defense and I dont see that happenin. Louisville will need 5 players in double figures to compete with UConn. I dont see that happenin. I like UConn by 25+ until Geno calls off the Dogs. UConn may not be as invincible as the Stewie teams but they are Number 1 for a reason. UConn came back against ND and TX and won both games while both of those opponents were playing one of their best games. I dont see anything to worry about. This will be a high pressure high intensity game and Louisville will be playing UConn at UConn and thats a tall task. UConn 87 LVille 63

 

[Carnac]

Its not in the Cards for Lousiville to beat UConn. All things being equal it will take Louisville to score over 80 pts against UConns defense and I dont see that happenin. Louisville will need 5 players in double figures to compete with UConn. I dont see that happenin. I like UConn by 25+ until Geno calls off the Dogs. UConn may not be as invincible as the Stewie teams but they are Number 1 for a reason. UConn came back against ND and TX and won both games while both of those opponents were playing one of their best games. I dont see anything to worry about. This will be a high pressure high intensity game and Louisville will be playing UConn at UConn and thats a tall task. UConn 87 LVille 63

I completely agree. Some folks forget (and dismiss) that the numbers Louisville has been putting up, and the success they've had to date, HAVE NOT been against teams playing the type of defense UConn plays. I agree with your numbers. Durr and one of her teammates will have to be in a zone for Louisville to win. I'm talking something like 30+ points each. I'm guessing Kia/Gabby will be assigned to guard Durr. Geno once said..............."When Gabby is guarding you, you're guarded". I'll go with that.

 

[BostonCanuck]

We saw on Wednesday that the UConn offense still isn't all that, especially when Crystal's not running the point. But my goodness, our starters held UCF to a mere 20 points through the first three quarters of play! So while the offense has been bit of a head-scratcher from time to time, the defense has been consistently superb all season long. Jeff Waltz and company are in for a long night in Storrs.

 

[SpockLogical]

Its not in the Cards for Lousiville to beat UConn. All things being equal it will take Louisville to score over 80 pts against UConns defense and I dont see that happenin. Louisville will need 5 players in double figures to compete with UConn. I dont see that happenin. I like UConn by 25+ until Geno calls off the Dogs. UConn may not be as invincible as the Stewie teams but they are Number 1 for a reason. UConn came back against ND and TX and won both games while both of those opponents were playing one of their best games. I dont see anything to worry about. This will be a high pressure high intensity game and Louisville will be playing UConn at UConn and thats a tall task. UConn 87 LVille 63

If Louisville is smart, they will follow a similar game plan as UCF. Uconn's Achilles heel is their lack of depth, marginal defensive quickness against fast guards, sporadic offensive rebounding, compounded by nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Don't get me wrong, I am an avid Geno and Uconn women's basketball fan, but various factors are catching up with his teams that do not bode well for this or next year. The things that contributed to their repeated successes are wearing thin.....like two years of mediocre recruiting.....and other programs that know what they have to do to beat them. Sadly, it is a fact and it shows.

 

[VaConnFan11]

If Louisville is smart, they will follow a similar game plan as UCF. Uconn's Achilles heel is their lack of depth, marginal defensive quickness against fast guards, sporadic offensive rebounding, compounded by nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Don't get me wrong, I am an avid Geno and Uconn women's basketball fan, but various factors are catching up with his teams that do not bode well for this or next year. The things that contributed to their repeated successes are wearing thin.....like two years of mediocre recruiting.....and other programs that know what they have to do to beat them. Sadly, it is a fact and it shows.

Teams cannot simply start playing "slow". It takes a few seasons and the right personnel to play "slow" correctly. UCF has the defensive side down, but lack the offensive side. They will get there in 2-3 seasons with the right recruits.

Louisville is not a slow playing team and I don't think they will try that on Monday. It messes with your flow of the game and causes you to make mistakes. UConn has played against "slow" play twice and won twice. It may make the games closer, but still not enough to win.

 

[easttexastrash]

The UCF game has me rethinking what may happen in the Louisville game. Will we see the return of the UCONN offense that we are accustomed to seeing?

 

[paisan]

The UCF game has me rethinking what may happen in the Louisville game. Will we see the return of the UCONN offense that we are accustomed to seeing?

Against UCF Gabby and Kia played bad offense, Crystal was out, Pheesa was not her usual self.... the majority of the points came from Lou and z...that is how Louisville could win.

 

[EricSD]

The things that contributed to their repeated successes are wearing thin.....like two years of mediocre recruiting.....and other programs that know what they have to do to beat them. Sadly, it is a fact and it shows.

Sorry, but which years of mediocre recruiting are you referring to? You specifically referenced 2...

SR: Kia, Gabby
JR: Lou, Napheesa, Azura
SO: Crystal, Batouly, Kyla, Molly
FR: Megan, Mikayla, Lexi
Incoming: Williams, ONO

Senior class has 1 kid already an AA (and Kia should be this year). JR class has 2 AA's. Sophomore class has one of the best PG's in the nation. Freshman class has the #1 recruit and another kid in the top 15. Next year's class has 2 kids in the top 5...

 

[JustinesGuy]

Sorry, but which years of mediocre recruiting are you referring to? You specifically referenced 2...

SR: Kia, Gabby
JR: Lou, Napheesa, Azura
SO: Crystal, Batouly, Kyla, Molly
FR: Megan, Mikayla, Lexi
Incoming: Williams, ONO

Senior class has 1 kid already an AA (and Kia should be this year). JR class has 2 AA's. Sophomore class has one of the best PG's in the nation. Freshman class has the #1 recruit and another kid in the top 15. Next year's class has 2 kids in the top 5...

He's saying that outside of Crystal the production of the freshman and sophomore class has been limited. He is correct.

Uconn may be ripe for an upset but it's going to be a tall order for it to happen in Storrs.

 

[EricSD]

He's saying that outside of Crystal the production of the freshman and sophomore class has been limited. He is correct.

Uconn may be ripe for an upset but it's going to be a tall order for it to happen in Storrs.

Not at all. He specifically said "after 2 years of mediocre recruiting..." blah blah. I'd like to know what exactly is mediocre about the freshman and sophomore classes. Seeing as our starting 5 only consists of 1 kid from his "mediocre" recruiting classes (who was #3 in her class), and the 7th kid on the depth chart is the #1 recruit from the "mediocre" freshman class, I just don't buy it, so no he's absolutely not correct.

 

[BobbyJ]

If Louisville is smart, they will follow a similar game plan as UCF. Uconn's Achilles heel is their lack of depth, marginal defensive quickness against fast guards, sporadic offensive rebounding, compounded by nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Don't get me wrong, I am an avid Geno and Uconn women's basketball fan, but various factors are catching up with his teams that do not bode well for this or next year. The things that contributed to their repeated successes are wearing thin.....like two years of mediocre recruiting.....and other programs that know what they have to do to beat them. Sadly, it is a fact and it shows.

I agree with most of your points. However, I would say that although most coaches can identify the keys to beat UConn, there's a couple factors that make it difficult for top 25 teams to go out and attack those keys. My hat is off to the UCF coach for getting her players to be all in and put in the effort to follow her gameplan. It takes patience and hard work to play that style. I believe she's recruiting from a different pool right now from the Top 25 teams. I'm not sure a lot of Top 25 coaches can get high level recruits to lower their egos to play that style. Auriemma and Schaefer obviously could but off the top of my head I can't think of others right now. Those kids want to get out and run and score and I don't know if they would buy in. I will say I'd like to see the what the UCF coach could do with that higher level of talent. If she could get that level of defense from them I think she'd take the ropes off her offense and let them go similar to what Auriemma is able to do.

 

[feste]

We saw on Wednesday that the UConn offense still isn't all that, especially when Crystal's not running the point. But my goodness, our starters held UCF to a mere 20 points through the first three quarters of play! So while the offense has been bit of a head-scratcher from time to time, the defense has been consistently superb all season long. Jeff Waltz and company are in for a long night in Storrs.

Do I hear a Walz? Come on, fans of Jean-O Aroma need to get a great coach's name right, eh?

 

[JustinesGuy]

Not at all. He specifically said "after 2 years of mediocre recruiting..." blah blah. I'd like to know what exactly is mediocre about the freshman and sophomore classes. Seeing as our starting 5 only consists of 1 kid from his "mediocre" recruiting classes (who was #3 in her class), and the 7th kid on the depth chart is the #1 recruit from the "mediocre" freshman class, I just don't buy it, so no he's absolutely not correct.

Your right. You cannot judge the freshman and sophomore classes until they are junior and seniors. The poster may mean that out of the 7 or 8 girls if you include AEH, only one is really contributing. There is an argument to make that Irwin and Walker are serious contributors. Again this is not my fight I'm just trying to figure out what the poster meant.

 

[CocoHusky]

If Louisville is smart, they will follow a similar game plan as UCF. Uconn's Achilles heel is their lack of depth, marginal defensive quickness against fast guards, sporadic offensive rebounding, compounded by nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Don't get me wrong, I am an avid Geno and Uconn women's basketball fan, but various factors are catching up with his teams that do not bode well for this or next year. The things that contributed to their repeated successes are wearing thin.....like two years of mediocre recruiting.....and other programs that know what they have to do to beat them. Sadly, it is a fact and it shows.

In consecutive years UCONN has gotten #1 Guard in the class=(Crystal 2016)+ # 1 player in the class =(Megan 2017) + an AA candidate as a transfer= (Azura)+ #1 Player in the class= (Christyn 2018) + a consensus top 5 in the class (Post)=(ONO 2019). How can that be considered mediocre?

 

[Woof 101]

If Louisville is smart, they will follow a similar game plan as UCF. Uconn's Achilles heel is their lack of depth, marginal defensive quickness against fast guards, sporadic offensive rebounding, compounded by nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Don't get me wrong, I am an avid Geno and Uconn women's basketball fan, but various factors are catching up with his teams that do not bode well for this or next year. The things that contributed to their repeated successes are wearing thin.....like two years of mediocre recruiting.....and other programs that know what they have to do to beat them. Sadly, it is a fact and it shows.

Welcome to the forum Spock. Two things of a different opinion for myself, first two years of mediocre recruiting ??? Not sure you are following the right team along with the transfers that came here. Nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Not sure what this even means. Never saw a player injured because the bench was not deep.
As for other teams knowing what to do to beat UConn, I can only say after all the NC's it's about time someone got a clue.

 

[EricSD]

Your right. You cannot judge the freshman and sophomore classes until they are junior and seniors. The poster may mean that out of the 7 or 8 girls if you include AEH, only one is really contributing. There is an argument to make that Irwin and Walker are serious contributors. Again this is not my fight I'm just trying to figure out what the poster meant.

Fair enough. You are correct as well!

 

[Charliebball]

We saw on Wednesday that the UConn offense still isn't all that, especially when Crystal's not running the point. But my goodness, our starters held UCF to a mere 20 points through the first three quarters of play! So while the offense has been bit of a head-scratcher from time to time, the defense has been consistently superb all season long. Jeff Waltz and company are in for a long night in Storrs.

I do hope you're correct but you can't equate Louisville's offense with that of UCF............Durr is fully capable of going off for 30+ points and Hines Allen 20+ on any given day although it's less likely against UConn........they have several other pretty good shooters who can hurt you also...........so why I'm pretty confident UConn will handle it, the game could be closer then we think..........on the other hand if Kia and others put a blanket over Durr, I don't see how Louisville can keep it very close.......

 

[SpockLogical]

Sorry, but which years of mediocre recruiting are you referring to? You specifically referenced 2...

SR: Kia, Gabby
JR: Lou, Napheesa, Azura
SO: Crystal, Batouly, Kyla, Molly
FR: Megan, Mikayla, Lexi
Incoming: Williams, ONO

Senior class has 1 kid already an AA (and Kia should be this year). JR class has 2 AA's. Sophomore class has one of the best PG's in the nation. Freshman class has the #1 recruit and another kid in the top 15. Next year's class has 2 kids in the top 5...

Just to clarify my earlier comment, 2015....Butler....Boykin....Samuelson....Collier.....2 for 4. In 2016.....Dangerfield.....Irwin......Bent....1 for 3. I like the last 2, but they have not proven they can play a major role. In 2017.....Walker.....Coombs.....Hunter.....Gordon. Hardly a stellar recruiting class. You can disagree, but I don't see where 2015-2017 has resulted in the kind of (and amount of) top notch players Uconn needs to prevail in today's competitive environment.

 

[SpockLogical]

Welcome to the forum Spock. Two things of a different opinion for myself, first two years of mediocre recruiting ??? Not sure you are following the right team along with the transfers that came here. Nagging injuries caused by the "depth" issue. Not sure what this even means. Never saw a player injured because the bench was not deep.
As for other teams knowing what to do to beat UConn, I can only say after all the NC's it's about time someone got a clue.

Thanks for the welcome...I have been watching the Uconn women since before 1995. The "nagging injuries" refers to the issue of over-work from too many minutes of play by the starters do to the lack of team depth. This has been going on for two years. Samuelson has been hurt, Gabby with hip issues, Dangerfield with shin splints, Nurse has also had some issues. Many other teams rotate players in and out constantly to rest their starters. You can't expect (5) players, as talented as they may be, to play the minutes the Uconn starters do and not have it take a toll on them both physically and mentally. That was an issue last year and it is this year. Don't forget, not only do they take a beating in the regular games, it is supposed to be worse in practice. It all adds up....common sense. At times, I feel bad for them. I see it, I am surprised no one else does.

 

[caramel]

Just to clarify my earlier comment, 2015....Butler....Boykin....Samuelson....Collier.....2 for 4. In 2016.....Dangerfield.....Irwin.Bent....1 for 3. I like the last 2, but they have not proven they can play a major role. In 2017.....Walker.....Coombs.....Hunter.....Gordon. Hardly a stellar recruiting class. You can disagree, but I don't see where 2015-2017 has resulted in the kind of (and amount of) top notch players Uconn needs to prevail in today's competitive environment.

One thing I have learned over the years, is that coach may not get all the glitter and fanfare in recruits, but most by their junior and senior years become very good to special. He sees something none of us see in who he chooses and signs, and because they struggle at first, does not mean the class will become so so. Even those that do not seem outstanding, would be at many other programs, and Eckmark is a very good example.
A flower starts like a weed but becomes a show of beauty.

 

[Tonyc]

Wow alot of "IF's" in this thread. UConn has 6 AA canidates LVille 1. UConn has 6 players better then Asia Durr and LVille has one. Plain and simply. If Durr goes off which will be a very difficult task against UConns defense who else will score for LVille? Hines Allen? maybe. Hey LVille has to play UConn one on one with no slacking off any player. UConn is gonna win this game big and be up over 2o pts most of the game. It aint even close. The UCF game people are referring to dont forget UCF didnt score in double figures in how many quarters? It was a slow down, stall game and UConn was up over 20. Thats alot in a game that is played slow. Im not concerned about LVille at all. I realized along time ago that there is only one UConn. FWIW what is UConns record over the past 3 years? What is UConns record over the past 7 years, how bout 10 years. They dont lose often and when it happens I call it a fluke or a law of averages. Hey they gotta lose sometime but looking at their record not too much.

 

[HuskylnSC]

Just to clarify my earlier comment, 2015....Butler....Boykin....Samuelson....Collier.....2 for 4. In 2016.....Dangerfield.....Irwin.Bent....1 for 3. I like the last 2, but they have not proven they can play a major role. In 2017.....Walker.....Coombs.....Hunter.....Gordon. Hardly a stellar recruiting class. You can disagree, but I don't see where 2015-2017 has resulted in the kind of (and amount of) top notch players Uconn needs to prevail in today's competitive environment.

Logic must be founded on sound information. Your basis is incorrect because it does not contain the understanding of what constitutes a quality recruiting class. Of course I must also allow that you don’t have a true understanding of the definition of ‘mediocre ‘.

Listen to the wise counsel of your elders on the board.

We be happy happy happy wid wat we got

 

[CocoHusky]

Just to clarify my earlier comment, 2015....Butler....Boykin....Samuelson....Collier.....2 for 4. In 2016.....Dangerfield.....Irwin.Bent....1 for 3. I like the last 2, but they have not proven they can play a major role. In 2017.....Walker.....Coombs.....Hunter.....Gordon. Hardly a stellar recruiting class. You can disagree, but I don't see where 2015-2017 has resulted in the kind of (and amount of) top notch players Uconn needs to prevail in today's competitive environment.

What is UCONN WCBB record since 2015? Seems like UCONN is doing more than just "prevailing".

 

[JustinesGuy]

What is UCONN WCBB record since 2015? Seems like UCONN is doing more than just "prevailing".

Why do u even engage this?

 

[HGN]

Its not in the Cards for Lousiville to beat UConn. All things being equal it will take Louisville to score over 80 pts against UConns defense and I dont see that happenin. Louisville will need 5 players in double figures to compete with UConn. I dont see that happenin. I like UConn by 25+ until Geno calls off the Dogs. UConn may not be as invincible as the Stewie teams but they are Number 1 for a reason. UConn came back against ND and TX and won both games while both of those opponents were playing one of their best games. I dont see anything to worry about. This will be a high pressure high intensity game and Louisville will be playing UConn at UConn and thats a tall task. UConn 87 LVille 63

Tony, I don't know.....Anything is possible. Let's not count our chickens before they hatch.

 

[Bigboote]

Tony, I don't know.....Anything is possible. Let's not count our chickens before they hatch.

Exactly. In the prognosticators thread the lowest UConn point total predicted for the UCF game was 78; the vast majority were 85-plus. It's unlikely, but not impossible that they'll play that way against Louisville.

 

[DefenseBB]

Wow alot of "IF's" in this thread. UConn has 6 AA canidates LVille 1. UConn has 6 players better then Asia Durr and LVille has one. Plain and simply. If Durr goes off which will be a very difficult task against UConns defense who else will score for LVille? Hines Allen? maybe. Hey LVille has to play UConn one on one with no slacking off any player. UConn is gonna win this game big and be up over 2o pts most of the game. It aint even close. The UCF game people are referring to dont forget UCF didnt score in double figures in how many quarters? It was a slow down, stall game and UConn was up over 20. Thats alot in a game that is played slow. Im not concerned about LVille at all. I realized along time ago that there is only one UConn. FWIW what is UConns record over the past 3 years? What is UConns record over the past 7 years, how bout 10 years. They dont lose often and when it happens I call it a fluke or a law of averages. Hey they gotta lose sometime but looking at their record not too much.

TonyC- I love and respect your passion but immediately your first sentence is wrong. Only KLS has outplayed Durr this season. She has been awesome and IS THE REASON Louisville is doing so well. You are always observant and logical in you UConn analysis as the rest oft you post demonstrates, but please give credit where credit is due to Asia and even Hines-Allen, who is also very, very good. I am not saying H-A is better than any of our top 6 but it’s not clear cut either that she’s lower.
The nuttiness that this forum predicts 20-25 point blowouts over very good teams is truly mind boggling to me. That is what comes across as arrogant and is beneath us as knowledgeable fans. Could it be a blowout of course, but it should be under 15 point win which is also amazing. For those that bemoan the UCF game- get a grip as that game was over halfway thru 1Q. UCF was tenacious on D but at no time was UConn in any danger of losing. If you want to find weakness in the handling the press, go ahead and try but that same press was handled pretty well for 3Qs.
Again, opinions are great, just use a bit more measured logic and respect.
Humbly submitted.-DefenseBB

 

[shizam]

UConn loses if UConn doesn’t come to play. How often does that happen?
UConn by 18.

If L’ville loses by single digits I will be very impressed with them.

 

[CocoHusky]

TonyC- I love and respect your passion but immediately your first sentence is wrong. Only KLS has outplayed Durr this season.

I'm afraid @Tonyc is correct (as usual). Both KLS and Kia Nurse have played better than Durr this season. Kia Nurse in particular has out played her in every category possible.

 

[DefenseBB]

I'm afraid @Tonyc is correct (as usual). Both KLS and Kia Nurse have played better than Durr this season. Kia Nurse in particular has out played her in every category possible.

First- Tony said we have 6 players better than Durr, he’s wrong. Second, he said we have 6 AA candidates, no we don’t. Z and despite Crystal Dangerfield’s great game today, are not AA candidates this year. Next year, absolutely.

Let’s agree to disagree on Kia. No way anyone outside of UConn faithful thinks Kia has out played Durr. Look, I think Kia derseves the WBCA 10 member team as she’s A Jack of All trades with awesome defense. That said, no one goes into a game and says “the key for us to win is stopping Kia”. That’s what everyone does when facing Louisville- try to stop Durr. It’s why Kia will be on Durr as will Gabby- TO STOP HER. That’s a big difference when you get to go unchecked to shoot wide open 3s and lead the layup brigade on turnovers. So thanks for you reply but I am going to pass and stand by my comments Durr is better than Kia at this point in the year.

The good news is we get to see it live Monday.