Lou Lopez-Senechal, Undertaker or Buried | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Lou Lopez-Senechal, Undertaker or Buried

TCC Kid said:
Apparently, someone doesn't like you or me to be realistic in our evaluations. Neither said this is the absolute.
I'm one of those, who has seen too many hyped up incoming newbee's fall relatively parallel to the surface to get excited until they play. Caroline, could have gotten hyped from me. She is the exception arriving with out a band behind her and EARNING her minutes.
I hope Lou is all anyone thinks she can be, we need that.
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Most of the bandwagons are born and die on this board. The recent history of UConn freshmen has been exceptionally productive. The media will repeatedly start games with telling how UConn had 3 seniors graduate and then lost Bueckers. It does sound as if they are behind the 8-ball. But other than all their experience there is nothing the seniors did that hasn't or can't be exceeded by the younger players. At the end of the Stanford game I was so pleased every time Fudd got fouled and so stressed when Williams went to the line. (I was also beyond happy for her when she made both). UConn has signed three straight outstanding classes. Two of those have produced 5 players who were major contributors as freshmen. I see the incoming class + Lou as doing the same and as of now the 23 class is also damn good. There is so much talent in the 24 class that everyone is going to eat.

By November most fans will have adjusted to the roster and will realize that UConn is still a powerhouse. Not as entertaining maybe but still formidable.

Has NIL altered the development schedule in girls' BB? I'm just a casual observer of recruiting but there seems to have been a surge of HS players with college-ready skills. At least offensively. Riding on the Bueckers tailwind?
 
Nobody knows what Lou is going to do but Lou and Coach Auriemma. As for us fans, we see the potential and we have seen game footage of Lou in action, and it is impressive. The only thing I hope happens is, that Coach Auriemma goes deep into the bench, if everyone is healthy, and allow the players to play loose and carefree.
 
Alydar said:
Most of the bandwagons are born and die on this board. The recent history of UConn freshmen has been exceptionally productive. The media will repeatedly start games with telling how UConn had 3 seniors graduate and then lost Bueckers. It does sound as if they are behind the 8-ball. But other than all their experience there is nothing the seniors did that hasn't or can't be exceeded by the younger players. At the end of the Stanford game I was so pleased every time Fudd got fouled and so stressed when Williams went to the line. (I was also beyond happy for her when she made both). UConn has signed three straight outstanding classes. Two of those have produced 5 players who were major contributors as freshmen. I see the incoming class + Lou as doing the same and as of now the 23 class is also damn good. There is so much talent in the 24 class that everyone is going to eat.

By November most fans will have adjusted to the roster and will realize that UConn is still a powerhouse. Not as entertaining maybe but still formidable.

Has NIL altered the development schedule in girls' BB? I'm just a casual observer of recruiting but there seems to have been a surge of HS players with college-ready skills. At least offensively. Riding on the Bueckers tailwind?
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Adding on to your theme about too much concern over graduating seniors. We lost three seniors who were very good players, but by Uconn standards they were pretty middle of the pack. They are all possible but far from a lock at a long WNBA career. We frequently send players to the league drafted much higher.

You mentioned your greater confidence in freshmen Azzi on the line instead of Christyn. It is more than just that trait, if you look at their PER stats Azzi and Caroline were better than both Christyn and Evina last year. It wasn't by a big margin but by that standard the freshmen replacements were better than the graduating seniors already. Dorka was very good but below Liv's numbers, but another year in the program and being used more exclusively at her natural position should make that closer to a wash.

The main thing to remember though, is in most years the incoming freshmen don't have to be as good in their first year as the graduating seniors for the team to be as good. The reason of course is you have sophomores, juniors, and seniors returning all of which should be a little better with another year of experience and their offseason work.

The reason I say in most years, is because last year we were a stark exception to that rule. Looking at PER stats again and comparing players to their prior year, we had one of our returnees improve (NIka) and in her case it was not by much. Liv, Aaliyah, Dorka, Evina, Christyn and Paige were worse. It would not be unusual for a player or two from that many falling off a little, but that was shocking, and in Aaliyah's case she was way down from the prior year. Before the injury Paige was better too but her 11 games after coming back pulled her numbers for the season below her freshmen year.

I'm sure some of that was because we had players gassed from playing too many minutes, or out of position due to injuries, and we didn't have time to get comfortable with a set lineup. This year I think it is more likely we have a more normal transition and improvement from returning players. Azzi and Caroline make a typical frosh to sophomore jump, Aaliyah a major one just to get back to freshmen form, hopefully better than that, Dorka gets more opportunities at her natural C position etc.
 
SVCBeercats said:
Search for this and found nothing in this forum. So .... here it is! What bleak outlook. Lou has to be better than this prediction!

Lou Lopez-Senechal
  • Offense - has the potential to be a three level producer
  • Defense - Geno recently went on record and insinuated that Lou had a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball. There is very little evidence that she excelled on defense.
  • Fit - There are some significant issues with her fit, however. UConn is a team that is renowned for passing and assisting the majority of their baskets. Lou has never averaged two assists a game; plus, she had her worst season last year with only 1.1 assists per game. She has also averaged more turnovers than assists every season. The biggest concern that I have with fit is that she is a transfer. Transfers at UConn have had mixed results.
  • Prediction - Still, I see her getting multiple DNP-coach’s decision early in the season and averaging around six minutes a game. :eek:
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If she's as bad as you are making her out to be, do you really think Geno would have added her on?
 
Bone Dog said:
Can you post a link to the PER stats you mention?
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I use herhoopstats.com quite a bit. It is a very good site for women's basketball, both NCAA and WNBA. It is a subscription site, however, at $20/year. They have some info you can get for free but obviously leave out much of the good stuff.

Another site that has great data is sports-reference.com, which covers all kinds of sports, but unfortunately not women's college basketball. They are very good for NBA, WNBA and men's college basketball, using PER and many other stats, and they are free, so you can get a good idea of some of the kind of stats both sites use from that one.

I recommend both, and herhoopstats also has some decent articles on their site, and their twitter feed is sometimes good as well.
 
oldhuskie said:
I use herhoopstats.com quite a bit. It is a very good site for women's basketball, both NCAA and WNBA. It is a subscription site, however, at $20/year. They have some info you can get for free but obviously leave out much of the good stuff.

Another site that has great data is sports-reference.com, which covers all kinds of sports, but unfortunately not women's college basketball. They are very good for NBA, WNBA and men's college basketball, using PER and many other stats, and they are free, so you can get a good idea of some of the kind of stats both sites use from that one.

I recommend both, and herhoopstats also has some decent articles on their site, and their twitter feed is sometimes good as well.
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Thanks. I used to follow herhoopstats, and you’re right they do have some excellent info. I stopped following them last year when their podcast turned so anti-UConn in the tournament. Gabe and Christy made such shocking dismissals of UConn’s chances each round, and were embarrassingly wrong each time, and never fessed up to their errors. It just pissed me off. I should probably forgive them now, but they really pissed me off. Their take on the Indiana game in particular was so over the top.
 
oldhuskie said:
I use herhoopstats.com quite a bit. It is a very good site for women's basketball, both NCAA and WNBA. It is a subscription site, however, at $20/year. They have some info you can get for free but obviously leave out much of the good stuff.

Another site that has great data is sports-reference.com, which covers all kinds of sports, but unfortunately not women's college basketball. They are very good for NBA, WNBA and men's college basketball, using PER and many other stats, and they are free, so you can get a good idea of some of the kind of stats both sites use from that one.

I recommend both, and herhoopstats also has some decent articles on their site, and their twitter feed is sometimes good as well.
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Thanks for posting the links. I’ve used information from both sites. Those sites have great data.

I wonder if herhoopstats.com gets raw data from an outside vendor, or if they compile the data internally? In order to properly calculate adjusted PER, they would have to take the unadjusted PER numbers and adjust them for league pace for all 348 Division 1 schools. They would also have to standardize the adjusted PER by first calculating the league average aPER for Division 1 schools using player minutes played as the weights. Then they would standardize aPER to a league average of 15.

HoopsHype.com has an interesting discussion about PER and about other advanced statistical measures for basketball.
 
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Cedar said:
Thanks for posting the links. I’ve used information from both sites. Those sites have great data.

I wonder if herhoopstats.com gets raw data from an outside vendor, or if they compile the data internally? In order to properly calculate adjusted PER, they would have to take the unadjusted PER numbers and adjust them for league pace for all 348 Division 1 schools. They would also have to standardize the adjusted PER by first calculating the league average aPER for Division 1 schools using player minutes played as the weights. Then they would standardize aPER to a league average of 15.

HoopsHype.com has an interesting discussion about PER and about other advanced statistical measures for basketball.
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Thanks for the HoopsHype article, that is very interesting too. Another thing I have noticed with the PER stat is the weighting of various stats seems to have somewhat of a bias towards the bigs, making comparing players at very different positions, like a PG to a C for example difficult. There is also the question of the competition.

I was comparing last year's players to how the played the year before, and after 6 games the results were terrible. But I was comparing the prior year end PER to the figure for that year thru just 6 games. In our case the early season schedule is much tougher than when we get into the conference schedule, so predictably as we got into the easy part of the schedule most player's numbers got significantly better, but still disappointing compared to the prior year.

Win share per 40, and offensive and defensive ratings are also interesting, particularly when you look at a player coming from another program. It will be interesting for a player like Lou for example. Her PER was better than Azzi or Caroline, but of course done against much weaker competition, and on a team where she was the first option offensively. That means her PER at Uconn is probably lower, because of far fewer scoring attempts and maybe other Uconn players grab a rebound she could have gotten etc.
On the other hand her efficiency at scoring could be better because she won't draw the toughest defender and won't have to put up as many difficult shots, but overall I think the PER goes down a little bit.

Other stats though will be better because she is playing with better teammates. Win share per 40, offensive and defensive ratings reflect how the team does while you are on the floor, so all of those should be better than her Fairfield numbers. Dorka faced a similar situation last year, her PER numbers came down a little and the more team related ones got better.
 
Present Coach, last coach and last Athletic Director all speak unusually highly of her.
I have do doubt that after acclimated, she’ll make a very positive contribution.
And when was the last time Geno didn’t state that—(insert name here)— didn’t needed “a lot of work on the defensive side”?
 
oldhuskie said:
Thanks for the HoopsHype article, that is very interesting too. Another thing I have noticed with the PER stat is the weighting of various stats seems to have somewhat of a bias towards the bigs, making comparing players at very different positions, like a PG to a C for example difficult. There is also the question of the competition.

I was comparing last year's players to how the played the year before, and after 6 games the results were terrible. But I was comparing the prior year end PER to the figure for that year thru just 6 games. In our case the early season schedule is much tougher than when we get into the conference schedule, so predictably as we got into the easy part of the schedule most player's numbers got significantly better, but still disappointing compared to the prior year.

Win share per 40, and offensive and defensive ratings are also interesting, particularly when you look at a player coming from another program. It will be interesting for a player like Lou for example. Her PER was better than Azzi or Caroline, but of course done against much weaker competition, and on a team where she was the first option offensively. That means her PER at Uconn is probably lower, because of far fewer scoring attempts and maybe other Uconn players grab a rebound she could have gotten etc.
On the other hand her efficiency at scoring could be better because she won't draw the toughest defender and won't have to put up as many difficult shots, but overall I think the PER goes down a little bit.

Other stats though will be better because she is playing with better teammates. Win share per 40, offensive and defensive ratings reflect how the team does while you are on the floor, so all of those should be better than her Fairfield numbers. Dorka faced a similar situation last year, her PER numbers came down a little and the more team related ones got better.
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If I recall correctly, wins share was the stat usually cited for choosing Paige as POY her freshman year over Clark and Boston, etc.
 
I say she'll be a bench rider....like transfer Evelyn Adebayo ended up being.........but... I'm always....wrong... --..I thought Kia Nurse would be at most a back-up......
 
I don't understand the pessimism about Lou. Because of circumstances, she has been under the radar. I'm a little concerned about her defense, but her offense will be excellent. If defenses focus on Azzi, Lou will drain shot after shot.
 
TCC Kid said:
Only once in the past dozen years probably in his coaching years, has Geno needed and accepted (very nearly, but not) warm bodies. In that time he came very close to not having 5 to suit up. He pulled his Geno Magic and got us some very good, nice , decent kids from Europe and Uconn "competed". I'd put money on your bet! Whenever possible Geno will not accept just ANY kid. I'm sure this is one of his --I don't want anyone but the best.
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My post from Aug 17 -
Aug 17, 2022 #42
ConnMotors said:
Damn, now we are more doomed. LOL. I'll take our chances with what we have if another player doesn't join us by start of school. Let's play ball....
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Geno may not be able to add another player by next Friday (classes resume Monday August 29), but not because he’s not trying. I don’t believe he’s simply looking for a “warm body.” If that were the case, he would have found one by now. I’m guessing he’s looking at a player(s) outside of the United States.

We have a winner!!! ;)
 
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So here is my take on why Lou will be successful where Adebayo was not... Lou will be mostly playing her natural G/F (3) position at UConn and has the size to play that position. She also looks to be pretty fit. That allows her to just focus on learning UConn basketball and getting UConn fit.

Adebayo had an additional challenge. She was really trying to not only play at UConn but the added challenge of playing as an undersized PF (4). I think if she had more time, she could have gotten in better shape and found ways to compensate but not in only one year. The size difference at her position between bball levels is huge to overcome.

Just my take...
 
TCC Kid said:
Apparently, someone doesn't like you or me to be realistic in our evaluations. Neither said this is the absolute.
I'm one of those, who has seen too many hyped up incoming newbee's fall relatively parallel to the surface to get excited until they play. Caroline, could have gotten hyped from me. She is the exception arriving with out a band behind her and EARNING her minutes.
I hope Lou is all anyone thinks she can be, we need that.
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No one here is pulling or rooting for Lou more than me, BUT I'm taking a "wait and see" approach to her development and play this year.
I'm somewhat familiar with her play and exploits over the last four years. Impressive as it is, it's was at a lower level where the competition and expectations were not as high as they are here and now.

I'm not for a moment suggesting that she will or may succumb to the same fortunes that Evelyn Adebayo and Natalie Butler did. The too transferred in with impressive resume's and never quite lived up the expectations Geno and fans had of them. I learned my lesson from these ladies. Just like I learned my lesson about predicting (almost guaranteeing) events when I predicted Alyiah Boston who at the time was leaning heavily towards UConn would sign with us. :confused: Here's hoping and wishing her all the best for Lou, but I'll wait and see.
 
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Carnac said:
No one here is pulling or rooting for Lou more than me, BUT I'm taking a "wait and see" approach to her development and play this year.
I'm somewhat familiar with her play and exploits over the last four years. Impressive as it is, it's was at a lower level where the competition and expectations were not as high as they are here and now.

I'm not for a moment suggesting that she will or may succumb to the same fortunes that Evelyn Adebayo and Natalie Butler did. The too transferred in with impressive resume's and never quite lived up the expectations Geno and fans had of them. I learned my lesson from these ladies. Just like I learned my lesson about predicting (almost guaranteeing) events when I predicted Alyiah Boston who at the time was leaning heavily towards UConn would sign with us. :confused: Here's hoping and wishing her all the best for Lou, but I'll wait and see.
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You can wait, but you’ll see. :p Time to board the “L” train.
 
As a reminder … Think back to last year’s tourney. Recall the players who were Conference POYs on UCF, South Dakota, and one other team I forget. All of them impressed. Well, Lou was also the Conference POY (and 3x 1st Team All-Conference). Under the radar, but very good.
 
I don’t remember Evelyn or Natalie well. I’m hopeful and I’m not going to append the dreaded “wait and see” to it. That’s what I’m doing with the whole team. More precisely, I’m eagerly waiting to see.
 
Zinethar said:
An interesting read although a flawed one. My favorite was "she has only played against St. Johns, Indiana, Texas, and Rutgers; in total, she has played four games against these high major schools. She has played against the next tier down: UMass (twice), Seton Hall, Temple, Rhode Island, and FGCU (a strong Mid Major)". Last time I knew St. Johns and Seton Hall were both Big East schools with Seton Hall actually better than St. Johns! He might be right in his assessment but I don't think it holds any more water than other better ones I've seen.
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Didn't EDD make 1st team AA playing in the Colonial Conf? Where did Jonquel Jones play?

Wait till the "experts" put out their pre-season analyses. Lou was the unanimous pick for conference POY but will be a question mark while Fletcher, the grad transfer from GT will be "a great replacement for Henderson at pg for the Gamecocks until Raven Johnson recovers from her ACL. No question there, SCar is solid at all 5 positions" :rolleyes:

Even my 8ball agrees.
 

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