Let's Begin The 4 Year Discussion

[MilfordHusky]

Good core group. First you have to look at who plays in 2018 in the WC's in Barcelona. I think it's possible Dee is still around and comes back for that (she may opt for the 2020 games as well). When you look at who won't be there for sure... it's only Catch. And probably Bird. Augustus, Dee, Whalen - all question marks. Of the 7 in your core group, no guards.

1's - Whalen, Jefferson, Sims, Vandersloot
2's - Dee, Augustus, Loyd, McBride, and maybe Diggins
3's - Moore, EDD, Angel, Rogers (Sugar), Powers (Ariel)
4's - Charles, Stewie, Ogwumike, Parker, Howard, Williams
5's - Griner, Fowles, Dolson, Stokes

Basically I listed the players in order of how likely it is they are chosen in 2 years in my opinion. 4 years may be a different story. In 2 years I could see a team comprised of :

Guards - Whalen, Jefferson, Taurasi, Augustus
Wings - Moore, Stewie, EDD, Angel
Posts - Charles, Griner, Fowles, Owgwumike

That's a team of 12 and a great mix of old and young. Jefferson and Ogwimike to replace Bird and Catch. Given Sue's injury, I could actually see them taking Loyd or Sims over Ogwumike for guard depth.

For the Olympics, it's a harder question - who really does leave? Not sure yet. But with Moore, Stewie, and EDD all ahead of Parker, and given Parker is not a physical player (she's finesse), I could see Ogwumike getting the nod over her, especially if she works on her mid range game over the next 2 years... The international game is VERY physical, and has gotten much more so in recent years.

A reasonable list, my friend, but I'd put Sugar on the SG list and Williams on the Center list.

 

[cbraarj]

Moriah really didnt take over UConn till after the break around Christmas time of her Junior Year. Her first 2 years it was Hartleys team. Sue Bird was the best PG in the country for 3 years and if she didnt get hurt possible her Freshmen year also. If Geno is back, at least one of the 2 will be back (Sue & Dee) and barring injury I would hope both would be. All the guards being mentioned are not ready to lead. They are very good players but with those 2 mentoring whoever USA Basketball decides on will be better off.

 

[Dillon77]

I think the first question is who is the coach of the NT because there will be slight variations in the USA emphasis depending on the offensive and defensive strategies of the coach who is leading the team. I think obviously if Geno signs up again it would be unchanged from what has come before and if Reeve were selected there would be few noticeable differences. If Dawn were selected, there might be more changes even after working with Geno through the process. And the selection process might include some personal connections - just as Asjha and Swin might not have been selected in 2012, Mitchell or Wilson might have a slight edge in four years if Dawn is coaching.

That said - I do not see Loyd being mentioned in lists above - I think she is as likely to get serious consideration as Diggins or Sims. I see her as possibly becoming the replacement for Diana and the longer she played with Sue, the better her game will become.

Completely agree with this line of thinking, which was touched upon in earlier posts. The personnel choices for the pool and eventual team should be based -- not only on individual talent, experience and portfolio -- but on how a player will fit within the schemes of the coach and his/her staff. Think the three you've brought up and the resultant actions that might take place are accurate.

Just a few general thoughts:

- Could see a transition-like team in 2018 WC, with a vet(s) chosen to help mentor newcomers at a few positions. This would be most obvious with Dee, Sue Bird or Whelan, but could also see it with other guards/wings (Angel M., Augustus). Once again, depending on who is the coach might determine who these mentors are, as well as the newcomers chosen.

- Still can't help but think that the biggest turnover will in the guard slots. I remember DT being interviewed during the trials and stating that she felt very comfortable with the younger players in the pool, mentioning --among others--Diggins, Loyd, Sims and McBride. Plus there is some nice growth in the WNBA. I noticed Sugar Rodgers name mentioned. Great to have folks like that considered for the pool.

- If Loyd continues to improve (helped immeasurably by the mentoring of Bird and playing with Stewie), she'll be a definite plus. Her outside/inside game is constantly improving and her ability to pull up for the jumper off the dribble is first-rate.

- A note on Sklyar Diggins (I am an ND alum after all )...she has always been something of a combination 1-2 guard. Working with Sims has underscored this. It will be interesting to see if this approach helps/hinders her standing. Once again, coaching philosophy will have a say there.

My main summary thoughts:
1) U.S. is going to be in great shape, given our current and future personnel;
2) U.S. needs to achieve a mixture of experience and newer players to keep the mix healthy and growing;
3) Selection (continuation?) of coach will impact personnel; and,
4) A bunch can happen in two to four years (personal decisions, injuries, etc.) Stay tuned.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Breanna Stewart likely anchor in Tokyo Games, but who else will represent U.S.?

Pretty light piece, but a start. And, of course, much to her undying pleasure, the CP is mentioned.

Maya is a shoe in, one PG is Jefferson, Small Fwd Tuck, Stevens (after 2 years with Geno),
Griner, EDD, Loyd thats a great group to build the USA team around.

There is no doubt the Coach of the USA should not be selected by vote, but by past performance--we have to remember there is ONLY ONE GENO--the only one that comes to mind (without a lot of NCAA titles) is Muffet--Dawn has assistant status with USA but does that reflect her ability to coach winners?? Doug nice guy--no NCAA's.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I think the first question is who is the coach of the NT because there will be slight variations in the USA emphasis depending on the offensive and defensive strategies of the coach who is leading the team. I think obviously if Geno signs up again it would be unchanged from what has come before and if Reeve were selected there would be few noticeable differences. If Dawn were selected, there might be more changes even after working with Geno through the process. And the selection process might include some personal connections - just as Asjha and Swin might not have been selected in 2012, Mitchell or Wilson might have a slight edge in four years if Dawn is coaching.

That said - I do not see Loyd being mentioned in lists above - I think she is as likely to get serious consideration as Diggins or Sims. I see her as possibly becoming the replacement for Diana and the longer she played with Sue, the better her game will become.

My problem with Dawn is: She has been Geno's assistant (USA and Olympics) and I don't see that translating into a winning program--she has come close--but in the olympics USA fans are not into Silver or Bronze.
Your first "assumption" of who the coach is to me that dictates who plays (compatibility) and obviously how well they shall do.
USA/Olympic WBB teams, Geno has shown, if they can leave their ME behind they can win. The three you mention as guards to me have never left their ME behind

 

[CocoHusky]

Before looking 4 years from now think we need to look 2 years from now to 2018 World Championship team roster. Nnemkadi Ogwumike should replace Catch on that roster . If Sue is a no go in 2018 then Odyssey will likely replace her. USA basketball believes in continuity and both Ogwumike & Odyssey were on the 2014 World Championship Roster. No DT in 2018 then you are probably looking at Angel to start and a back up from among ( Jefferson, Diggins, Loyd, and McBride). T. Mitchell is a possibility but K. Mitchell is a loud no thanks because she walked away from USA basketball saying something like: "USA style of basketball was not compatible to her game" . Don't see Wilson, Stevens, Turner or Coates being a contender for '18 WC or '20 Olympic rosters because PF/C position is going to be loaded & versatile. Megan Walker would have to a straight up BEAST- POY by a long shot as a Freshmen- to even be in consideration for these teams. She will be a rising Sophomore '18 WC and rising Senior for '20 Olympics. My guesses would be.

C: Grinner, Charles, Fowles
PF: Stewart, Delle Donne, Ogwumike
SF: Moore, Parker
SG: McCougtry, Loyd
PG: Diggins, Simms

 

[UcMiami]

Moriah really didnt take over UConn till after the break around Christmas time of her Junior Year. Her first 2 years it was Hartleys team. Sue Bird was the best PG in the country for 3 years and if she didnt get hurt possible her Freshmen year also. If Geno is back, at least one of the 2 will be back (Sue & Dee) and barring injury I would hope both would be. All the guards being mentioned are not ready to lead. They are very good players but with those 2 mentoring whoever USA Basketball decides on will be better off.

Moriah really took off as a Sophomore after Christmas and played the final three months of the year and ended up leading the starters in: Assists, A/TO, shooting percentage, 3 point percentage, and steals - having more assists and fewer turnovers than Bria, and shooting the three better than KML, and Stef in field goal percentage. Bria and Stef were the seniors and KML was the junior so yes, it was their team, but Moriah was the PG and she put up better stats than Sue in everything except three point shooting.

Dillon77 - Diggins and Sims are both somewhat 'combo' guards, but if Diggins does not play overseas, I think she will likely fall behind other guards in the pecking order - USA seems to be very aware of what pool players are doing in the off-season. Carol specifically mentioned following Robinson's success in Europe closely and it being a positive in their evaluation of her. I think USA doesn't have any issue with combo guards - having DT on this Olympic team made Sue's injury much easier to deal with as she became the second PG, trading time with Whalen.

 

[CocoHusky]

Moriah really didnt take over UConn till after the break around Christmas time of her Junior Year. Her first 2 years it was Hartleys team.

Moriah really took off as a Sophomore after Christmas and played the final three months of the year and ended up leading the starters in: Assists, A/TO, shooting percentage, 3 point percentage, and steals - having more assists and fewer turnovers than Bria, and shooting the three better than KML, and Stef in field goal percentage. Bria and Stef were the seniors and KML was the junior so yes, it was their team, but Moriah was the PG and she put up better stats than Sue in everything except three point shooting.

How quickly we forget. Sophomore Moriah Jefferson was special in UCONN's three most important road games of the '13-'14 season @ MD, @Baylor, @Duke . Of those three games only Baylor came after Christmas. Bria was a Senior and for UCONN seniors are expected to be team leaders, but if anyone things MoJeff took a backseat to Bria in performance they had better check the box scores from those games. Moriah had good and bad games before and after Christmas. Since conference play starts after Christmas and UCONN found itself in the AAC with not even ( Louisville) presenting much opposition I would expect her stats to get better after Christmas.[/QUOTE]

 

[Dillon77]

Moriah really took off as a Sophomore after Christmas and played the final three months of the year and ended up leading the starters in: Assists, A/TO, shooting percentage, 3 point percentage, and steals - having more assists and fewer turnovers than Bria, and shooting the three better than KML, and Stef in field goal percentage. Bria and Stef were the seniors and KML was the junior so yes, it was their team, but Moriah was the PG and she put up better stats than Sue in everything except three point shooting.

Dillon77 - Diggins and Sims are both somewhat 'combo' guards, but if Diggins does not play overseas, I think she will likely fall behind other guards in the pecking order - USA seems to be very aware of what pool players are doing in the off-season. Carol specifically mentioned following Robinson's success in Europe closely and it being a positive in their evaluation of her. I think USA doesn't have any issue with combo guards - having DT on this Olympic team made Sue's injury much easier to deal with as she became the second PG, trading time with Whalen.

UcMiami -- Diggins and Sims remind me of the NBA in my teen years when you had backcourts like Frazier and Barnett/Monroe or West/Goodrich, when the guards took turns running point and/or shooting. I mentioned that she was a combo because a number of folks I talk to think she's strictly a shooting guard when, in fact, she has the second most assists in ND's history, to go along with her program-leading points scored and steals.

As for the overseas, this year was dedicated to rehabbing the knee. We'll see if she heads overseas this time around...she's done a few clinics in China. I agree that she needs to get "on stage" a bit more often, particularly coming off the injury. Last winter really helped both her former ND alums, Loyd and McBride.

 

[EricLA]

A reasonable list, my friend, but I'd put Sugar on the SG list and Williams on the Center list.

Probably - I thought about that, but at least for Williams, at 6'3", less athletic and a lesser reach than Stokes, I put her as a 5. IMHO 5's need to be taller or have a longer reach in international play, but you are probably right...

 

[UcMiami]

UcMiami -- Diggins and Sims remind me of the NBA in my teen years when you had backcourts like Frazier and Barnett/Monroe or West/Goodrich, when the guards took turns running point and/or shooting. I mentioned that she was a combo because a number of folks I talk to think she's strictly a shooting guard when, in fact, she has the second most assists in ND's history, to go along with her program-leading points scored and steals.

As for the overseas, this year was dedicated to rehabbing the knee. We'll see if she heads overseas this time around...she's done a few clinics in China. I agree that she needs to get "on stage" a bit more often, particularly coming off the injury. Last winter really helped both her former ND alums, Loyd and McBride.

Didn't mean to imply a correction to your statement and I have always thought of Diggins as a combo guard, but agree that others may not.

On the overseas issue, it has been brought up by women NT members and commentators during this past Olympics in two respects: the familiarity with the foreign players and their games/preferences as both teammates and opponents during the winter season being a big advantage for USA team members; and, the disadvantage for the men in not being familiar with international rules and officiating, nor with many of the players and style of international team play. Specific to Diggins, the last time she played internationally I think was 2011 in the PanAms and I think if she is serious about making a USA team that needs to be addressed - it is one thing for EDD the reigning WNBA MVP to be a novice in international play because she has already distinguished herself as the 'best' in the WNBA, Diggins is just one of a pack of good guards, none of whom have really distinguished themselves from the rest of the pack.

 

[JSB60]

Looking at this season's WNBA numbers, MoJeff and Sims are very comparable:

Jefferson 12 PPG, 4 APG, 2.2 A/TO
Sims 14 PPG, 4 APG, 1.4 A/TO

Moriah is a rookie, and I think matches up well in a head to head tryout.

 

[UcMiami]

Looking at this season's WNBA numbers, MoJeff and Sims are very comparable:

Jefferson 12 PPG, 4 APG, 2.2 A/TO
Sims 14 PPG, 4 APG, 1.4 A/TO

Moriah is a rookie, and I think matches up well in a head to head tryout.

I think where the separation comes in is: A/TO 2.2 v 1.4 and shooting percentages: Sims .342/.305, Moriah .447/.451 - in other words, efficiency.

Some others:
Diggins: A/TO 1.4, .390/.283
Loyd: 1.2, .448/.313
Sloot: 2.9, .400/.333
January: 1.6, .377/.385

And Moriah is playing on easily the worst team which does not help her numbers.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

Wilson IMO is overrated. Still needs abetter foul line jumper. I dont see her playing the 4 in the WNBA. Right now maybe a 5 but I Dont see her playing before Dolson and I would be suprised if Steph made it. As for a pg Jordan Canada will be the best in the country this year.

Wilson IMO is not unlike Griner was in college, depending on her athleticism (with BG, height) to get everything done, and with a coach who is OK with just being good. I see her getting to the next level and learning how to play her position. Parker and Charles are two players who can teach her a lot.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

Looking at this season's WNBA numbers, MoJeff and Sims are very comparable:

Jefferson 12 PPG, 4 APG, 2.2 A/TO
Sims 14 PPG, 4 APG, 1.4 A/TO

Moriah is a rookie, and I think matches up well in a head to head tryout.

...and is is VERY coachable, working well with others.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

I don't remember which one, but I seem to recall a thread that discussed Diggins' experience with USA Basketball as being VERY limited, and she hasn't been playing overseas. If true, those two add up to her NOT being a strong candidate for 2018 and beyond.

Someone correct me if I am wrong on that.

 

[CocoHusky]

I don't remember which one, but I seem to recall a thread that discussed Diggins' experience with USA Basketball as being VERY limited, and she hasn't been playing overseas. If true, those two add up to her NOT being a strong candidate for 2018 and beyond.
Someone correct me if I am wrong on that.

No correction required. Skylar has not played professionally over seas since leaving ND and last played USA basketball in 2011 World university games. However despite all that this article indicates she was one of the last 4 cuts from 2014 WC team. So I would disagree that she is not a strong candidate.
Skylar Diggins reflects on getting cut from World Championships team

 

[cbraarj]

I did not mention any stats. I talked about leading the team. Your pg should be the general and know not just her role but everybody elses in the game and Bird did that right away. With a loaded Huskies team in 99-00 in her Sophmore year.

 

[UcMiami]

No correction required. Skylar has not played professionally over seas since leaving ND and last played USA basketball in 2011 World university games. However despite all that this article indicates she was one of the last 4 cuts from 2014 WC team. So I would disagree that she is not a strong candidate.
Skylar Diggins reflects on getting cut from World Championships team

I think she is a strong candidate, but I think if she does not play overseas the gulf between her and Sims (who beat her out and did make the team) and other guards will widen as the years progress. It is not just the exposure to international rules and players, but the broadening of experiences playing for different coaches, in different styles, with different teammates, and against different defenses. She is learning for four months a year while the people she is competing against for roster spots are learning for ten months a year. I am sure she is working diligently on her own personal skills in the off-seasons, but that is not the same as developing the team skills that the others are doing.

 

[CocoHusky]

Wilson IMO is not unlike Griner was in college, depending on her athleticism (with BG, height) to get everything done, and with a coach who is OK with just being good. I see her getting to the next level and learning how to play her position. Parker and Charles are two players who can teach her a lot.

I disagree with the Wilson Griner (relying on athleticism) comparison for both players actually. Griner won National Defensive player of the year awards 3 times. Wilson is a rising Junior with 2 more years of college ball to play. From her Freshmen to Sophomore year Wilson has made great strides, which did not rely on her athleticism . For example Wilson became the SEC defensive POY. Playing defense requires great effort not just reliance on athleticism.

 

[CocoHusky]

I think she is a strong candidate, but I think if she does not play overseas the gulf between her and Sims (who beat her out and did make the team) and other guards will widen as the years progress. It is not just the exposure to international rules and players, but the broadening of experiences playing for different coaches, in different styles, with different teammates, and against different defenses. She is learning for four months a year while the people she is competing against for roster spots are learning for ten months a year. I am sure she is working diligently on her own personal skills in the off-seasons, but that is not the same as developing the team skills that the others are doing.

I agree with you in all respects Sims ahead of Skylar right now. International competition/ exposure will be a key for both. A few post above I have both making the team assuming no: Simone, DT, Whalen, or Sue.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I think where the separation comes in is: A/TO 2.2 v 1.4 and shooting percentages: Sims .342/.305, Moriah .447/.451 - in other words, efficiency.

Some others:
Diggins: A/TO 1.4, .390/.283
Loyd: 1.2, .448/.313
Sloot: 2.9, .400/.333
January: 1.6, .377/.385

And Moriah is playing on easily the worst team which does not help her numbers.

I agree that 2.2 is very different from 1.4. And Moriah has poorer finishers than Odyssey.

Moriah ran the best offense of the last 5 years at the college level, played for a very demanding coach, and can tell Stewie what to do. I like her leadership. In the S.A. games, she is moving the Stars players around, having all of 20 pro games under her belt.

As noted in another post, I think Renee deserves another look. She's playing very good basketball as a backup to Lindsay this season.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I bet DT has another go in 2020. My best guess at this point:

C: Griner/Fowles...no real superstars on the horizon to displace these two. Brianna Turner could fit in here, but I think she'll be more of a 4 player in the pros. The best low post center in the collegiate game might be Alaina Coates, and she is not in the same league as Griner/Fowles.

F: Charles/Stewart/Wilson/Ogwumike....Charles/Stewart should be locks if they continue to improve over time, they have been USA basketball staples. Wilson is the next staple USA player. Ogwumike could be left off again. Parker could be brought back, but I'm guessing her exclusion this go around and how big of a deal was made about it by everyone will keep her off the radar.

Wing: EDD/Moore/K. Mitchell/Loyd...EDD and Moore appear to be safe bets. Loyd is a player who is on the outside looking in, but could definitely make a roster and has the talent to fill in for Augustus. Kelsey Mitchell is a stud and I think will be an impact player in the pros from day 1, she should get a serious look. Other contenders are the up and down Diggins and Sims, as well as McBride who is one of the better shooters/playmakers, but all 3 of these players are injury prone and failed to make this year's squad. With so much experience in the frontcourt, I'm guessing the Olympic committee will choose younger players over Diggins/Sims who will be in their late 20s. McCoughtry could return, but I think she will be left off the squad in favor of younger players.

G: Jefferson/Taurasi...Taurasi is a lock if she is still playing, even if she is a shell of herself. I'm guessing she'll still be a very good player 4 years from now and will likely be a starting 2 guard. Jefferson appears to be the best young point guard in the game. Diggins/Sims could fit in here. Sloot could too, but she's never struck me as an Olympic caliber player like everyone else mentioned here does.

Diana will not play in 2020. As great as she is today, she just can't withstand the travails of year-round pro ball. Let her retire gracefully. And Sue. And Tamika.

On another player, I think A'ja Wilson is a tremendous talent. Let's recall that Tina Charles couldn't shoot from more than five feet from the basket either when she was in college. But she improved. So will Wilson. She's not benefited from a great coach yet. But she is a tremendous physical specimen, and she will be a great pro player!

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Some interesting discussions here. I have enjoyed reading about the guard skills displayed by these good players and likely heirs to the national team. I've said before that Jefferson, Loyd, Diggins, and Sims are likely the future. McBride and Vandersloot are other candidates who aren't poor choices . Diggins hasn't played overseas and it is true that may hurt her, but she is supremely talented and while I get the lack of love from some UConn fans, she would be an asset to most teams. She may not be a perfect fit for the 18 or 20 rosters as there are other quality guards but she will be considered. Nneka should get consideration if she continues to play at this pace. Wilson is a dark horse but another very talented player Who is still maturing.

 

[UcMiami]

Listened to the LaChina Robinson podcast earlier and she and Teresa Edwards were on the USA could send 36 players and take Gold Silver and Bronze kick. I think it is possible, but it is sort of the mentality that USA men fall into that we are so clearly superior in talent that we just need to show up. Sometimes that works because you get lucky, and sometime you end up with egg on your face because you get beat when it matters. The reason that the women dominate is because they have the most talent and are the least selfish team, and that doesn't come naturally to any pro player, man or woman.
You don't break the assists and field goal percentage records by being selfish.
The issue I see for USA going forward is that they are losing the heart of that impetus - guards are the ones who drive that, and with few exceptions their aren't a lot of Sues and Dees and Lindseys - and the ones that are out there Sloot for example, are not as good and don't have that experience playing with 11 other superstars.

(I wrote a long post on this in another thread about what a fine line there is between 20 point wins and a tie game. So I will not repeat myself. But just a simple one - Sue had 31 assists and 4 TO's - put anyone of the young guards in the same situation and based on their life work, if they got 31 assists in a tournament it would come with 15-20 turnovers.